The Rockies return home for a quick five games after an ugly road trip. First up is another two game series, this time against the Arizona Diamondbacks who have struggled similarly to the Rockies over the past two weeks. Tonight, 22 year old rookie Patrick Corbin takes on 49 year old anti-rookie Jamie Moyer.

Patrick Corbin

#46 / Pitcher / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-3

Weight: 165

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jul 19, 1989

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	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2012 - Patrick Corbin	2-1	4.50	1.31	12	5

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Jamie Moyer

#50 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-0

Weight: 185

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Nov 18, 1962

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	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2012 - Jamie Moyer	1-3	4.66	1.66	24	11

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Losers of eight out of their last ten games, the Arizona Diamondbacks appear to be suffering a bit of a hangover from a season that saw them, more or less, run away with the NL West title. They have had some bad injury luck, as key players from last year's squad such as Daniel Hudson, Geoff Blum, and Chris Young are all currently on the disabled list. However, they also have also faced a myriad of regression issues. Justin Upton, Paul Goldschmidt, Gerardo Parra, and Ryan Roberts are all performing significantly below their levels from last season, and only one of their regulars - Jason Kubel (130 OPS+) is above average. Simply put, the D-Backs' offense is not getting it done in 2012 after tearing the National League a new one in 2011.

Miguel Montero

#26 / Catcher / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 5-11

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Jul 09, 1983

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	AVG	OBP	SLG
2012 - Miguel Montero	.267	.358	.350

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With the same consistency as the sun rising from the east, Miguel Montero destroys the Colorado Rockies. In the three-game series at Coors Field in April, Montero homered twice, walked twice, singled, and drove in five runs. He owns a .931 career OPS in 190 plate appearances against the Rox, and has hit 13 bombs. His highest total against any other club is five. One reason for his success against the Rockies is that their hurlers, as we all know, generally employ a pitch-to-contact, down-in-the-zone strategy that makes them very susceptible to getting scorched by notoriously good low-ball hitters such as Montero. Unfortunately for Colorado, a lot of Arizona hitters are good low-ball hitters, so it has resulted in some ugly games over the years. It will be interesting to see if they pitch Montero - who has shown a pretty keen eye at the plate this season, if nothing else - differently this time around.

The D-Backs have continued to be successful on the mound, particularly in their starting rotation. Other than Josh Collmenter, who has since been relegated to the bullpen/spot-starter duty, the current mix of guys have all been good. Patrick Corbin is a talented young pitcher who is still trying to get his feet on the ground, while Joe Saunders, Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley, and Trevor Cahill have been consistently solid. This doesn't include some guys coming through the pipeline (Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, etc.) that are going to give the D-Backs a much-needed boost when the time comes. The bullpen, meanwhile, has been good with the exception of closer JJ Putz, who is scuffling to the tune of a 49 ERA+. While he is still striking batters out (12 in 11 innings), he has allowed four homers and sports an 8.18 ERA. Ouch. Arizona has used David Shaw to close a couple of games along the way, so there's some flexibility there. One guy who has absolutely infuriated me due to his success is Joe Paterson, but he lost his job in April after allowing 11 runs in 2.2 innings spanning six appearances. So, that's a plus. Their best reliever to this point has undoubtedly been David Hernandez, who has struck out 24 batters in 17.1 innings and has allowed only four walks. Naturally, with that kind of stuff and command, his ERA+ sits at 190.

Projected starters and more after the jump...

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The current situation the Rockies find themselves in -- 7 games below .500 in May, all but out of the division at 9.5 GB has created a mood among Rockies fans that is very familiar indeed. After this loss that dropped the team to 14-21, 9.5 games back 3 years ago to the day, the Rockies were frustrating enough to us at Purple Row that we started thinking of long-term plans that could fix this team.

My modest proposal back then gave Colorado a 12 step plan to success involving a major reconstruction of the team while Rox Girl's 6 step manifesto talked about the Rockies rebuilding around their young core. Then of course Clint Hurdle was fired, the rest of 2009 happened, and those plans were mostly unnecessary. Maybe that's what will happen this year, but I'm not holding my breath. So let's talk about long-term plans for this mess on our hands.

Two steps both plans had in common were the need for a decision to be made about Dan O'Dowd's tenure (stay or go) and for Clint Hurdle to not be back with the team in 2010. On the former, the Monforts decided that O'Dowd was the right guy to be running the team, while they didn't feel the same about Hurdle. That one turned out pretty well. Will this situation turn out differently with O'Dowd and Tracy? O'Dowd built a team that went to the playoffs twice in 3 years and Tracy helmed the latter team's remarkable turnaround. But both men certainly have their faults.

O'Dowd has had a tendency to overvalue his own prospects and homegrown players (think Brad Hawpe and Garrett Atkins). His post-Tulo draft track record has been shoddy, including the execrable pick of a college reliever at #8 in the 2007 draft. The emphasis on character (which is undoubtedly being influenced by ownership) when looking at free agents and prospects alike might be coming a little too much at the expense of talent.

Meanwhile, Tracy has had the unusual distinction of stirring up feelings of widespread hate in each of the 3 MLB franchises he has led. Some of his myriad faults are listed here in a horribly prophetic article from 2006 (a must-read if you haven't seen it already), and his sordid managerial career is covered in this piece by Chris Jaffe of the Hardball Times.

While it seems unlikely to me that the Monforts will give either of these men the boot in the near future, it might behoove them to sit O'Dowd and Tracy down together and come up with a strategy that the GM will design and that Tracy will implement going forward. It's been a little difficult to ascertain the plan for Colorado of late given some of the personnel decisions that were made both in building the roster (O'Dowd) and in individual games (Tracy). To be honest, I'm uneasy with the thought of those two men planning the future of the organization, but somebody has to make a coherent plan.

While Colorado might not have such an obvious trade piece as they did with Brad Hawpe at this point in 2009, members of this 2012 bridge to nowhere team do have value or will build it leading up to the deadline -- most notably Jeremy Guthrie and Rafael Betancourt. Maybe the Rockies will pull the trigger on selling some of their short-term veteran pieces this summer.

It's also become apparent that giving the myriad young pitching prospects acquired by O'Dowd recently the opportunity to grow into MLB pitchers at the MLB level might in fact give the Rockies their best chance to win now and in the future. Colorado could have a September rotation of Jorge De La Rosa and 4 pitchers 26 and under. Should this be the plan?

As for position players, third base has been the usual sinkhole offensively and so has second base unfortunately. Colorado has a lot of potential options for those slots (sell low on Scutaro? call up Arenado?), but at some point they need to commit to seeing which of their young players is worth keeping in 2013 and beyond. There's certainly value in putting a respectable MLB product on the field (and that's what Colorado is trying to do with these bridge veterans), but as I said on Monday, is what we're seeing now a respectable product?

I'd love to hear your thoughts on a plan that will set the Rockies up for present and/or future success.

Off-Topic.

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Colorado Springs 0, Memphis 6

Sky Sox pitching was actually fairly impressive, save for the fifth inning where Nashville scored all six of their runs. Starter Rob Scahill's outing was very bizarre. He went the first four innings without allowing a hit. He even produced a rare four-strikeout inning thanks to a passed ball. But in the doomed fifth inning the lack of hits built up into a volley of them, as Scahill allowed three straight hits to lead off the inning, which would culminate in a three run home run before the frame was finished. By the end of his six inning outing, Scahill had struck out eight and only walked one, allowing only five hits, which would be a perfectly good outing if all of those hits hadn't occurred at once. Scahill allowed six runs, five of them earned, leading to his fourth loss on the season.

Not much to report offensively. Matt McBride stayed hot, becoming the only Sky Sox player to get more than one hit. His double was also the only friendly extra base hit in the game. Hernan Iribarren, DJ LeMahieu and Chad Tracy were responsible for the others. Iribarren and Andrew Brown reached on walks.

Northwest Arkansas 3, Tulsa 1

Edwar Cabrera's line was also a bit strange. His control was better than his previous two outings, walking only one while striking out six, something much more along the lines of a typical Cabrera line. Like Scahill at AAA, Cabrera only allowed five hits, but the NW Arkansas Naturals sure made him pay; three of those hits were solo home runs, accounting for all three opposing runs. Cabrera lasted seven innings, but was stuck with his third 2012 loss. Reliever Will Harris struck out the side in the eighth.

Kent Matthes had one of his better games in a while, knocking two doubles for the only two extra base hits the Drillers would manage. Kiel Roling had two hits and also batted in Tim Torres for the only Drillers run.

Nuts and Tourists after the jump.

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Rex Brothers entered the eighth inning of a 4-4 tie. Of his first 13 pitches, 12 were balls, with the only strike being a sacrifice bunt. For the mathematically inept, that counts as three four-pitch walks (one intentional). Jim Tracy stuck with the young set-up man in a crucial spot, and Brothers rewarded him by striking out Brandon Belt and Melky Cabrera on seven pitches.

Brothers went ballistic on his way to the dugout, fired up and pissed off like a man with a scorpion in his jock. Less than five minutes later, Marco Scutaro - who entered the game in a double switch with Brothers - yanked a 1-2 fastball from Santiago Casilla over the left-field wall for his first home run in a Rockies uniform. Rafael Betancourt made that count, and the Rockies won a game.

The aforementioned 4-4 tie was an adventure in the making. Angel Pagan misplayed a line drive into a single plus 2-base error for a gimpy Troy Tulowitzki. Had he been healthy, he may have scored on the play. Instead at third, Tim Lincecum pitched around Todd Helton in front of a Michael Cuddyer double and Jordan Pacheco sacrifice fly. Carlos Gonzalez blooped a double and scored on a Tulowitzki single. Cargo also laced a two-out RBI single in the seventh.

Meanwhile, Jeremy Guthrie pitched well in his return to the rotation. He walked four, including the first two of the game, but he nearly doubled his season strikeout total with four. He allowed just one unearned run before being replaced with Josh Outman in the sixth inning.

Outman also pitched in the seventh, walking the first two he faced before Melky Cabrera doubled home two. Matt Belisle inherited the tying runner in scoring position, and Angel Pagan plated Melky with an opposite field single.

In all, the Rockies' pitchers walked 10 batters, yet only two scored.

Comment of the Night

I had forgotten what a W looked like

I was all "Upside down Ms, that’s absurd"

by moorejs99 on May 15, 2012 11:51 PM MDT

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Jeremy Guthrie and Tim Lincecum were Opening Day starters. Their ERAs are both horrible. While Guthrie has been beaten by the home run and inability to strike anyone out, Lincecum has been killed by just getting hit around. The Rockies took advantage of him at Coors Field early and often earlier this season, but don't expect the Rockies' lineup to get the same formula.

Lincecum gave up eight hits in that 17-8 loss - seven on his changeup -- and said it was evident to him that Rockies hitters were sitting on the offering. ("It just happened too quickly. I didn't give myself a chance to think about what was going on.") He's been spooked to throw it as his out pitch ever since.

Somehow, Troy Tulowitzki is back in the lineup after nearly having his kneecap shatter in last night's game.

The Rockies are losers. Losers of four straight and 9 of 10. The much feared California road trip ends tonight, and Coors Field will be a welcome sight tomorrow, though it is worth remembering Colorado stumbled to a 3-6 homestand in their last stay at home. The tumble finds Colorado with the 3rd worst record in MLB, which is significant considering the Rockies have been in MLB's bottom five in just one season, when they finished in the 3-way tie for 27th in 2005.

This is bad baseball, and the natives are getting restless. Dan O'Dowd and Jim Tracy are targets for fan vitriol, but the Rockies are not going to make personnel changes anytime soon.

"It's been frustrating for everyone involved, for our fans, for the players, for everyone. But I don't sense that we are that point (where there would be changes). That's not how we do business." - Dan O'Dowd

How the Rockies do business is to react on samples exceeding one month. As Colorado had a winning record April 20, less than four weeks ago, the alarms aren't going off yet. With the way the Rockies are playing, it does not matter whether their manager is named Earl Weaver or Jim Tracy or Siri, wins would not be coming. May isn't the time for a front office shake-up either. Any changes to the front office or clubhouse would be largely symbolic to appease the fans right now, and the Rockies aren't about to give in to that pressure.

The Rockies are in a unique position. They cycle between the 2nd- and 4th-most important sports franchise in Denver yet still get fairly consistently strong attendance. With a beautiful stadium in the perfect location, prevalence of pre-1993 fans of other baseball teams, affordable tickets and LoDoMagic^TM, the floor of attendance remains relatively high. After ranking 1st in the NL in attendance through the 90's, attendance dipped along with the bottoming out of the GenR movement, but its steady increase since does not reflect the wide-ranging product on the field. With such a dramatic shift in baseball quality, attendance has been relatively uncorrelated in recent years. We seem to be finding a settling point for baseball attendance in Denver. Why would the Monforts give in to fan pressure after less than four weeks of bad baseball then?

That is not an indictment, as giving in to upset fans can be just as damaging as inaction. Is Bobby Valentine really the better manager for the Red Sox going forward over Terry Francona?

So with the slow trigger on the axe, what would it take? O'Dowd is probably safe to see the build-to-2013 plan come to fruition, barring continued collapse through October. Jim Tracy is most at peril. Colorado has fired only two managers midseason, both in the Dan O'Dowd era. Let's compare:

With comparable to even higher expectations in 2009, Clint Hurdle's team was just about as bad through 34, albeit with a better run differential. To reach the 18-28 mark that doomed Hurdle, the Rockies would need to go just 5-7 in their next 12. It is important to note that Hurdle had no "handshake indefinite extension" going into 2009 though, and Tracy has yet to reach the depth of the season that left Hurdle with a pink slip. We can probably expect two more weeks of horrifying baseball to be required.

Buddy Bell was canned after only 22 games, but he was managing a team headlined by two big free agent acquisitions from the previous year to the worst start in franchise history. (They did rebound to reach 14-20).

I believe the Monforts and Dan O'Dowd really do like Jim Tracy, and he will get a longer leash than most managers, even past ones in Colorado. But that leash is not indefinitely long. If history is any indication, the Rockies need to turn it around in the next two weeks to save Tracy's job.

That leash is longer than most Rockies fans would want this morning, but to be realistic for a moment, in-season managerial changes rarely result in dramatic shift in performance. Of the two managers who steered such turnarounds, one was born in the Herbert Hoover presidency, and the other one is already in the Rockies dugout.

Off Topic

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