2009 NL West WAR: Comprehensive Review
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 9, 2010 12:00 PM MST
in NL West Report
28 comments
In October, I set out on a project to report the strength of each of the NL West teams position by position utilizing WAR.
If you missed any of the prior articles, this is where you can catch up.
This project proved more difficult than I expected, given that Fangraphs does not have offensive or value splits by position and Baseball Reference does not carry WAR in its tables. Thus, I had to do all the work myself. The overall method was highlighted in the first base and second base articles, but here is a quick rundown: 1) Extract positonal splits for every player in the division from Baseball Reference. 2) Apply component park factors from Statcorner.com for every offensive event. 3) Calculate wOBA from this data using Fangraphs' formula and convert it to Batting RAR (Runs Above Replacement). 4) Utilize UZR for the defensive component, and calculate positional and replacement RAR, just like Fangraphs. 5) Sort, organize and sum.
The prior installments can be found below.
C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | P
For your convenience, I have tabulated the rankings of each team at every position below. If you disagree or can't fathom why one ranking is as such (say...the top two teams in CF for example), I encourage you to check out that edition - it's all explained there.
| Position | AZ | COL | LAD | SDP | SFG |
| C | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 5th | 4th |
| 1B | 5th | 2nd | 3rd | 1st | 4th |
| 2B | 1st | 3rd | 2nd | 5th | 4th |
| 3B | 3rd | 5th | 2nd | 4th | 1st |
| SS | 3rd | 1st | 2nd | 4th | 5th |
| LF | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 5th | 1st |
| CF | 5th | 4th | 2nd | 1st | 3rd |
| RF | 1st | 4th | 2nd | 5th | 3rd |
| P (batting) | 1st | 3rd | 2nd | 4th | 5th |
| SP | 4th | 1st | 3rd | 5th | 2nd |
| RP | 4th | 1st | 2nd | 5th | 3rd |
| P Staff | 4th | 1st | 3rd | 5th | 2nd |
The very first thing I notice in the above table, other than the Rockies pitchers kicking butt, is the Dodgers. Every team had at least two positions that they were tops in the division, but not Los Angeles. Actually, they took "consistently good" to a ridiculous level, having the 3rd best catching, first base, rotation and overall staff and placing second at every other position.
This is the perfect place to evaluate where each team's strengths and weaknesses were in 2009. That's essentially what I was going for with this series, but there are some very interesting developments after the jump. If you're skeptical of WAR or intrigued by it, I urge you to continue reading.
28 comments | 4 recs |
Tuesday Rockpile: Trivial things you should know about the Rockies
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 9, 2010 8:00 AM MST
in Rockpile
151 comments
The Rockies pipeline is pretty dry this morning. Nothing is boiling at MLB Trade Rumors, Troy Renck hasn't had an update since yesterday, and with the 40-man roster full, it's unlikely we see anything noteworthy. We will just have to wait until pitchers and catchers report in six days.
But just so there's something to read this morning, I have assembled a few random factoids/statistics from 2009. Some are intentionally counter-intuitive; some are intentionally abusing small sample sizes. Some are old and you've probably seen them before; some are new; some I've borrowed from other writers and some will make you blue. Without further ado:
- Miguel Olivo led the entire AL in slugging percentage in June.
- Adam Eaton led the team with a .706 wOBA. He had one plate appearance, pulling out a 14th inning RBI walk on August 24, immediately preceding the SpillySlam. Behind Eaton are Jason Giambi (.455) and Troy Tulowitzki (.393).
- Todd Helton was 2nd in the NL in sac flies, Jorge de la Rosa was 3rd in wild pitches, and Dexter Fowler was 4th in sac hits.
- Ryan Spilborghs led all Rockies' outfielders in assists, and Seth Smith had the greatest UZR.
- Jason Marquis had a better ERA at Coors Field than away from it.
- Jason Hammel had a lower xFIP at Coors Field than on the road.
- Brad Hawpe hit .846 with a runner on second base from Opening Day to June 13. He was 11-for-13.
- Carlos Gonzalez failed to get on base even once in his 14 PA's from the 9-hole.
- Much was made of Jorge de la Rosa's dramatic turnaround in the second half, but his second half FIP was only 0.10 better than in the first half.
- Jason Marquis, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Hammel were 3rd, 7th and 16th, respectively, in MLB at groundball per flyball ratio.
- Eric Young Jr. was the first player to be picked off on his first two times reaching base in his career.
- Jason Hammel set the franchise K/BB mark, Ubaldo Jimenez set the franchise H/9 mark, and Jorge de la Rosa broke his own franchise record, set in 2008, for K/9.
- According to Fangraphs, Jason Hammel had the 5th best curveball in MLB in 2009. Suck it, thin air.
- Memo to Baltimore: Garrett Atkins hit .450 with a 1.150 OPS as a DH.
- Only one Rockies' starting pitcher allowed more than 1.0 HR/9 - sinkerballer Aaron Cook.
- The first batter in an inning hit .370 off Ubaldo Jimenez, reaching base 49% of the time.
- For the second consecutive year, Ubaldo Jimenez had the fastest average fastball (96.1mph) among MLB starters. Despite starting at the ceiling and throwing the 3rd most innings in franchise history, he increased his average fastball 1.2mph, the 20th highest fastball gain in the league from 2008.
- From Fangraphs' pitch ratings: Only two pitchers had three different pitches rated at greater than +9.6 in 2009. One was Javier Vazquez. The other was Ubaldo Jimenez
- Chris Iannetta grounded into only one more double play than Jeff Baker did with the Rockies.
- Seth Smith had a .581 BABIP in AB's from games in which he did not start.
- After the day Jim Tracy replaced Clint Hurdle, the Rockies were 34-14 in games started by fourth and fifth starters Jorge de la Rosa and Jason Hammel.
- If you have any oddities/anomalies/interesting bits of your own, do share.
151 comments | 0 recs |
Monday Rockpile: Post-Super Bowl, Pre-Spring Training Roundup
by Russ Oates on Feb 8, 2010 8:01 AM MST
in Rockpile
38 comments
Rowbot Radio - Episode 2 - Purple Row
"In this edition, we discuss the state of the starting rotation going into Spring Training, including the condition of Jeff Francis, our stacked minor league options, and what we expect from our pitchers in 2010."
FanGraphs Splits | FanGraphs Baseball
The Home/Road Splits | FanGraphs Baseball
If you don't love FanGraphs yet or not enough, maybe you'll love will for the site will go up as they just added splits to their player pages. The second link look at how to look at home/road splits.
Pre-FanFest Giants news: Posey could work at other positions, Lincecum tries to take contract haggling in stride | Extra Baggs
In an article filled with notes on the Giants, Andrew Baggarly indicates that Bruce Bochy wants Buster Posey to get some playing time at first base. This way Posey won't start the season in the minors. But apparently, Posey had no idea about this until Baggarly told him.
The College Baseball Blog " Aman Reaka’s Top 100 Countdown: 100-75
I hope to have more coverage leading up to the 2010 draft than I did for the 2009 one, but for now here's one writer from the College Baseball Blog on the top eligible college draftees.
Washington Nationals: 2010 Draft Watch: Bryce Harper/Jameson Taillon. - Federal Baseball
Federal Baseball has video of top 2010 prospects Bryce Harper and RHP Jameson Taillon.
Viva El WAR (Part 1: Hitters) - Viva El Birdos
If our stats guys haven't fully gotten through to you yet on what WAR is, Viva El Birdos takes a stab at it.
38 comments | 0 recs
Rowbot Radio - Episode 2
by WolfMarauder on Feb 8, 2010 4:00 AM MST
in Rowbot Radio
43 comments
Welcome to Episode 2 of Rowbot Radio!
On this edition, Andrew and I discuss the state of the starting rotation going into Spring Training, including the condition of Jeff Francis, our stacked minor league options, and what we expect from our pitchers in 2010.
A couple of production notes:
- I have changed the audio setup to dual channel stereo, as opposed to separate channel stereo. You should hear both of us in one ear phone now. Initial unfamiliarity with editing this process accidentally made me mix the audio a little bit too hot ("too loud"), so there a couple crackles of peaking audio levels that I simply didn't have time to fix tonight. That should sound better next time.
- While I have not yet optimized it, I have gotten the file size to decrease about a third in file size, despite being five minutes longer. This one comes in just South of 23 MB (as opposed to last week's 31+). I will continue to see if I can get it further down. It should be possible, I just have to find out how best to do it without losing quality.
- I have not yet had the opportunity to check up on creating an RSS feed for auto-downloading. For now, you'll have to continue to download manually, but I'll continue to post it early in the morning so it'll be up for you to download before you have to go to work/school/vacation/party/spirit voyage.
- Please don't forget to send in questions or comments for Andrew and I to address, whether via e-mail or on the comments section of this thread.
43 comments | 1 recs |
Sunday Rockpile: Great Catcher War of 2009 makes the mainstream press; Rockies interested in Cuban first baseman
by Rox Girl on Feb 7, 2010 8:17 AM MST
in Rockpile
115 comments
Troy Renck's been aware of Purple Row's Great Catcher War of 2009, and he alludes to it in a piece that fondly remembers the service Yorvit Torrealba provided to the Rockies over his four seasons here. By waiting out the market, the Padres were able to sign Torrealba for about half price on his WAR estimated value. People are making a big deal of the mistake Torrealba and his agent made in turning down the Rockies best offer, but I think a bigger one could be counting on the Mets to sign Bengie Molina or be interested in Torrealba if they did not. The market quickly turned in on itself once Molina went back to the Giants.
Also from Renck, there are some interesting notes following this article on Ian Stewart's ascension to the role of starting third baseman and what he and the team are looking for from him in 2010. One note that probably shouldn't be brushed aside is that Paul Lo Duca probably won't accept a AAA assignment if he doesn't beat out Miguel Olivo or Chris Iannetta for a major league job. That scenario for Lo Duca likely doesn't happen without a DL stint for one of the other two.
Due to the relative trickle of baseball players that make it out of Cuba, and the typically higher cost of signing those players, it's very rare that we read of the Rockies being interested in recently defected Cubans. Apparently Jose Julio Ruiz is an exception. ESPN's Jorge Aranguré blogged about Ruiz earlier this off season in a report for ESPN Insider subscribers. Ruiz is a 25 year old left handed hitting first baseman that would presumably head to the upper minors (I would guess Tulsa) as added Todd Helton insurance for the next couple of seasons. Some feel, I'm not sure if the Rockies are in this camp, that he could also play in the outfield, so he could also be in that picture should the team part with Brad Hawpe anytime soon. Ruiz is expected to make his decision within the next couple of days.
In case you've missed it elsewhere the last couple of days, the Rockies are also interested Todd Wellemeyer and Noah Lowry on minor league deals. It seems both are more likely to sign elsewhere.
So today I got this super new punch bowl, it's plastic and it holds punch, like I say, it's just super, so I'm having this super bowl party just to celebrate the fact I got a really awesome punch bowl. It should be fun.
115 comments | 0 recs
2009 NL West in Review: Pitching Staffs
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 6, 2010 4:45 PM MST
in NL West Report
15 comments
For nearly two decades, Rockies fans have dealt with national analysts and out-of-state fans dismissing the statistics for Rockies hitters, since you know, we play baseball on Pandora the moon. What has not yet seemingly caught on (unless purple glasses blind me) is an equal amount of credit given to Rockies pitchers for throwing half their innings at least thrice the altitude of all other teams.
Granted, park effects aside, the Rockies have never had great pitching. From 1993-2004, Colorado finished dead last in NL ERA all but twice, finishing a couple runs ahead of one team those two years. But those days are gone now. As has been hinted at and outrightly stated here on numerous occasions, the Rockies were sabermetrically elite in 2009.
Overall, Colorado had the 10th best ERA in Major League Baseball, 7th best in rotational ERA; so even ignoring park effects, Bob Apodaca's staff was impressive. The starting pitchers also finished 6th in FIP and 4th in xFIP. Due largely in part of the extremely stout back end of the rotation, our Rockies sat atop all of major league baseball in pitching WAR in 2009. Naturally, that makes the Rockies look awfully good against the rest of the division. The following table on Fangraphs' RAR (runs above average) shows why Colorado belonged in the postseason. Not only are the Rockies on top overall, but they also had the most value in the rotation AND bullpen.
| Team | Starters | Bullpen | Batting | Total |
| COL | 174.6 | 46.8 | -36.5 | 184.9 |
| SFG | 158.1 | 43.4 | -39.2 | 162.3 |
| LAD | 137.9 | 45.9 | -35.6 | 148.2 |
| AZ | 133.2 | 36.1 | -33.9 | 135.4 |
| SDP | 25.4 | 24.4 | -37.5 | 12.3 |
By the way, the Padres' numbers are not a misprint. They were THAT bad in 2009. For a more visual comparison and LOLPads, here's the above table graphed.
Note: For the hitters' series, I computed my own park effects to hitters' positional splits using Statcorner's component splits. Conversely, the numbers in this article are straight from Fangraphs, though rounding errors apply.
Take the jump for a closer look.
15 comments | 0 recs |
Saturday Rockpile: Mora officially signs, Torrealba's saga ends, more
by theoldgrizzlybear on Feb 6, 2010 9:07 AM MST
in Rockpile
74 comments
Mora signs with Rockies - ESPN
The details of Melvin Mora's deal with the Rockies have been finalized, as Mora will get $1.3 million to presumably back up Ian Stewart, as well as be used in some capacity to spell Troy Tulowitzki and Clint Barmes. Mora has played virtually every position in his 10-year career.
Torrealba, Padres agree to one-year deal - The Denver Post
The former Rockies backstop has apparently signed with San Diego for $1.25 million, according to Troy E. Renck. I wish him luck with his new team, and hope that the Rockies are able to keep him in check during the 18-or-so games in which they'll see him this season. Also in the article, Renck mentions that the Rox will watch free-agent Noah Lowry throw in the near future.
Inside the Colorado Rockies " First baseman Josh Phelps should add power to Sky Sox | Major League Baseball in Denver
31-year-old power hitter Josh Phelps is among four players who signed minor league contracts with the Rockies yesterday, according to Jack Etkin. Also on the list are outfielders Alex Escobar and Bronson Sardinha, as well as former Rockies reliever Chris Gissell. Phelps, who is a first baseman, adds some power to the Sky Sox, who hit less than 100 homers last season despite playing half of their games in the hitters' park of all hitters' parks.
Rockies' Daley, who shunned the draft to get his degree at Bucknell, is a key cog in the team's bullpen - The Denver Post
Troy E. Renck has his own "underdog" piece about Matt Daley, to go along with the one that Russ linked to yesterday. On a side note, it's absolutely insane to me that Daley entered high school weighing 85 pounds, especially because I probably weighed double that amount.
74 comments | 0 recs |
Best Colorado Rockies Draft Picks of the 00s
by Russ Oates on Feb 6, 2010 4:00 AM MST
in Draft
42 comments
Writing a "best of" piece just after the decade ended (or maybe it didn't end if you're the kind of person who actually thinks about things like that) doesn't offer much perspective. But insta-history is always the rage (just take a look at the number of books that have come out on the 2008 presidential election and the current financial crisis in the recent months (and I believe it's still too early to actually understand the end of the Cold War, but twenty years later and counting we're starting to understand it)).
That being said, it's a bit easier to write such "best of" pieces for the sports world. The results are already tangible for the most part. So, let's take a look at the best Rockies draft picks this decade and then decide who is the best one.
Because neither Christian Friedrich (2008) nor Tyler Matzek (2009) have appeared in the majors yet they are eliminated from this discussion. When this topic is revisited in a few years, hopefully they'll be in the discussion.
First, some players who don't make it into the discussion: Matt Harrington (2000), Jayson Nix (2001), Chris Nelson (2004), Greg Reynolds (2006), and Casey Weathers (2007). Harrington became a never was; Nix has underwhelmed and no longer plays for the Rockies; Chris Nelson is working his way up the ladder but has yet to reach the majors; Reynolds is Reynolds; and Weathers may have a productive ahead of him, but doesn't fit within the current framework.
Who does make it?
| Player | Round | Year | Position |
| Garrett Atkins | 5 | 2000 | 3B |
| Clint Barmes | 10 | 2000 | 2B/SS |
| Brad Hawpe | 11 | 2000 | RF |
| Jeff Francis | 1 | 2002 | LHP |
| Ryan Spilborghs | 7 | 2002 | OF |
| Ian Stewart | 1 | 2003 | 3B |
| Eric Young Jr. | 30 | 2003 | INF |
| Seth Smith | 2 | 2004 | OF |
| Chris Iannetta | 4 | 2004 | C |
| Dexter Fowler | 14 | 2004 | CF |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1 | 2005 | SS |
Join me after the jump for a look at what puts them on the list and who is the best of them all.
42 comments | 0 recs |
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NL West Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles
|
95 | 67 | .586 | 0 | Lost 3 |
|
Colorado
|
92 | 70 | .567 | 3 | Lost 2 |
|
San Francisco
|
88 | 74 | .543 | 7 | Won 1 |
|
San Diego
|
75 | 87 | .462 | 20 | Lost 1 |
|
Arizona
|
70 | 92 | .432 | 25 | Won 1 |
(updated 2.10.2010 at 8:12 AM MST)
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