A step back?

by DenverBears on Jul 25, 2005 2:07 PM MDT

First, great blog! I just discovered this blog and I'm impressed. It is great to find a place where I can read about the latest goings-on with the Rockies and their farm system. I am a Colorado ex-pat, who is stuck in the northeast for the forseeable future--as you might imagine Rockies fans in these parts are extremely rare.

Anyway enough of that...I was wondering if anyone else has come to the same conclusion I have...that the Rockies' offense isn't just bad, it is bad in historic proportions.

Aside from Helton, there is really nobody on the team that would be a starter on some of the better offensive clubs. Even with the Coors field effect, they are 3rd from the bottom in runs scored in the NL. The Rockies are averaging 3 runs a game, which puts them on a pace for fewest runs on the road of any team since at least 1999 (as far as I could find home/road splits)--by a fairly large margin. Compared to the league average, I'm guessing that this is one of the worst road performances on record--certainly in the last decade.

At this point, obviously the Rockies' are several years away from competing--I say trade everyone over the age of 30 that you can (except maybe Helton)--play even more of the youngsters and get ready to draft first next year.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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Unfortunately, you're absolutely correct

and the two players who were decent starting material besides Helton, Brad Hawpe and Clint Barmes, are both sidelined due to injury. Matt Holliday is too inconsistent, Garrett Atkins seems mostly a product of Denver at this point so neither crack that list. Next year will see only slight improvements (Q at second, and whoever's in center should be decent, maybe an upgrade at third to Jeff Baker as well) and the real leaps will come the year after. Look at the bright side, though, the thirteen year plan to return to contention is almost finished.

Thanks for the compliments on the blog, it's made great by the insight from visitors such as yourself, so be sure to come back!

by Rox Girl on Jul 25, 2005 2:40 PM MDT reply actions

home road splits in Asheville

speaking of home-road splits--have you seen Baseball America today....

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/050725dish.html

by DenverBears on Jul 25, 2005 4:18 PM MDT up reply actions

Yep, Linked to it in my Pebble Report

In the update part down towards the bottom of the article. Like I said there, I think that Joe Koshansky still has shown enough power to be a force even when he's not in a homer happy environment like McCormick Field, but Matt Miller I'm not so sure of. What I didn't say there is that I think Miller is the better at hitting for average and getting on via walk so that kind of makes up for it. It will be interesting to see what those two do next year in Modesto. I expect Chris Nelson will pass them both up in all offensive categories.

by Rox Girl on Jul 25, 2005 4:30 PM MDT up reply actions

True

But at the same time, of course these guys are going to take advantage of their surroundings. That is there home. Most players, if the park allows them, generally hit better at home than they do away. Just because they are putting up good numbers in Asheville doesnt mean it wont continue up in Modesto. In fact, Modesto and the California League in general is a good hitters leage. The SAL on the other hand isnt as good.

An interesting thing to note--I would be surprised if Koshansky is in Modesto next year. Talking to Rockies scout Mike Erickson (Southwest, Arizona and Vegas specifically. Hey, Im 17 years old and play baseball!..and Im not a bad player, so he talked to me once after one of my pitching performances. Now he is a regular at them. lol..) back to what I was saying, after a game one time I was talking to Erickson about the system and he said that from what hes heard he sees Koshansky moving up to AA next year, and they have had the same thoughts about Miller. They want to see what they have in both. I asked how it would work, and he laid it out to me like this: Koshansky would play first of course, while Miller, Gaetti, Colonel, and Smith would play the outfield and rotate between the three outfield spots and DH, since the minors generally use the DH, they dont have to worry about AB's.

I am very close now to Erickson. I told him that I will play as long as my talent lets me, and besides that my eventual goal is to becoming the Rockies GM. lol...big dreams. But as of right now...I am eligible for the 2006 draft as a high school senior.

But now you all know a little bit about me! lol

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Jul 25, 2005 4:53 PM MDT reply actions

Good luck on your goal!

Already from reading your comments I can see you've got some great determination and mix it with some pretty good smats upstairs as well, so if your arm is half as good, you'll be well on your way.

Anyway, the plan sounds promising, but I wonder how effectively it works out (in this case in a good way) Michael Davies has been impressing organizational types and they want to try keeping him, but I know he's eligible for minor league free agency after this season if he's not protected. If what you say is true, and judging from a previous comment you made, than somebody in the Rockies player development system must be feeling they aren't going to be able to keep him as that would make Tulsa that much more crowded.

Unfortunately that scenario also leaves Modesto kind of short on talent. I guess they put Kyle Wilson at first for the Nuts, with Justin Nelson anchoring a rather weak outfield. Maybe Travis Becktel can skip a level from Tri-City, and Trevor Allen is a possibility of moving all the way up to High A from Casper, but there isn't a whole lot of promise for other ready reinforcements from the short-season leagues and the rest of Asheville's current crop of outfielders just isn't that good.

I guess the rest of the Nuts infield would then have Chris Nelson, Dustin Hahn and Jose Valdez, which could still work out pretty well, especially if Valdez keeps up with his hitting of late.

by Rox Girl on Jul 25, 2005 6:03 PM MDT up reply actions

This was also...

as of early July. Michael Davies has been hitting better as of late. But as you mentioned, he is eligible for FA after the year, so I dont know if the Rockies would be willing to hold a 40 man roster spot for him.

Tulsa would be extremely crowded, but at the same time, IMO, that is a very talented lineup. There is no denying that teams potential.

Well, I am always sitting down acting like a GM, thinking bout trades, promoting/demoting players, etc...lol its sorta funny, and I dont know, maybe a little corny...but I guess my sitting down and analyzing players does have some use. Through what I have done, I project Modesto, if what Mike says is true, to look like this:
C Neil Wilson, 1B Michael Paulk, 2B Jose Valdez, SS Chris Nelson, 3B Dustin Hahn, LF Justin Nelson, CF Chris Frey, RF Daniel Carte, DH Travis Becktel.

Thats the way I see it working out. Some people might question Carte, Frey, and Paulk moving up, but the fact is they are college players that have struggled with the intial transition, along with the horrible pitchers haven Tri-City is. And despite Carte struggling the most out of the three, he has had success with wood bats, hitting double digit homers in the Cape.

Well...hopefully people think my arm is as golden as my mind! lol...I have been invited as one of 18 players to represent the U.S. team vs. Australia for the Goodwill Series over christmas....I am very excited to be one of the few selected and to play some of the best in the world. A lifetime experience, especially Jan 3 when we play in the Olympic stadium in Sydney. During that time, I will give everybody the website where you can receive daily updates of how Im doing if you would like.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Jul 25, 2005 7:37 PM MDT reply actions

Being recruited by any

D-I teams?

And that looks like a pretty good Modesto lineup if it happens that way.

by Russ Oates on Jul 25, 2005 7:52 PM MDT up reply actions

RF in NY

Thanks for asking. A couple, but we expect more when I get my SAT results soon. Oregon State, New Mexico, Lamar (Tex) and UNLV have been the hottest after me, especially UNLV considering I live in Vegas. They get to see all of the games in which I play in. July 1st was the first day that coaches could make contact to class of 2006 seniors, so those are the three I have been contacted by that interest me.

Lesser known schools that have contacted me are Mesa State (Col), Dixie College (Utah), San Francisco State, and CSU-Pueblo, which I am seriously considering given the fact it is close to home where I grew up. I still have a little while to decide....and Bob Williams, the founder of the Area Code, is talking to other schools and teams. Bob knows everybody you can possibly want to know. The last week of June I was in Santa Cruz for a the International Baseball Academy, one of 60 invited throughout the nation, and his phone was ringing nonstop. It was crazy. He picked me up from the airport and for 2 hours it wouldnt stop ringing. He is talking to some people though to help me out.

At the international academy, there were two scouts in particular that were impressed with me and wanted to know a lot about me according to Bob on the drive to the airport before I left to come home...the Brewers and hold your breath...the Giants. Bob gave me a hard time that I might one day be known as a Rockie-Killer....horrible thoughts!

On the other note, I dont think that the lineup for Modesto looks that bad, even though some might think so. I am not so worried about how strong the teams are. If it means making a team weaker because Koshansky and Miller need to be challenged and promoted, so be it. Just my thoughts.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Jul 25, 2005 8:41 PM MDT reply actions

As for Koshansky

I'm not sure why we'd need to challenge him, being that his lone position is blocked for the forseeable future. Getting him major league ready in two years won't necessarily help the Rockies' cause, and I doubt his trade value changes with a level skip. Being a Tulsa fan and native, I'd love to see it, but in reality, it may be a needless gesture. I'd start him in High A, if he crushes it, then maybe a mid season promotion, but if first base will not be an issue on this team, leave him in an environment where his numbers will be staggering, raising his trade value. I don't know, just a thought...

Hey Dave, have you taken the time to read both Moneyball and Scouts Honor? If organizational structure and planning is your thing, these two opposite perspectives are not only fun to read but give valid points for each cause. I'm reading Scouts Honor right now, and being a SABR fan, I'm trying to keep an open mind, but nonetheless, it's a pretty good read. Perhaps something to keep you busy during your travels...

by David "ohno" on Jul 25, 2005 11:06 PM MDT reply actions

Koshansky and reading...

I agree with your take on Koshansky. It is a win-win situation I think. The reason I prefer the AA promotion though is that if in fact he does dominate the Cal League as a 23-24 year old, nobody is going to pay attention to his domination. When guys are that old, I feel you have to see what they have. What type of player you really have. You never know what you have in a player until he reaches Double-A, in which case some succeed (Shealy) while others fail (Nix). With Koshansky, and the rate he is dominating the SAL league, I could see him making the jump. It challenges him. There isnt that much of a difference between low and high A. I agree and respect your thoughts though. It is one to think about. The same thing applies to Shealy though too. They jumped him from Casper to Visalia, because of his age and experience. Now he is 25 and at AAA. Koshansky, given his age, must be pushed too. He obviously is putting up the numbers to back that claim.

As for the books, I just got my paycheck today and have been wanting to buy Moneyball, I just havent had the money (the life of a teen!). I just finished reading "Juiced." I know its a questionable book by a questionable player, but I thought it was a good read. As for Scouts Honor, I have never heard of it, but I will most certainly buy it and take your word on it! I think it might do me some good to read books on both points. You can never take a side without truly knowing all sides of the story. Thanks for the suggestions.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Jul 26, 2005 12:44 AM MDT reply actions

I bought

Moneyball today, and the bookstore I went to didnt have Scouts Honor but I requested to have it shipped from the store south of where I live instead of driving down there myself. It should arrive within 3-5 days. Thank you for the recommendation.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Jul 26, 2005 5:56 PM MDT reply actions

Went out and

bought Scouts Honor today. Very interesting so far, and I just finished the Dale Murphy section.

Certainly not as "flamboyant" as Moneyball, but still makes you believe in what he's writing about.

by Russ Oates on Jul 26, 2005 6:04 PM MDT reply actions

Still reading it myself

it's just hard to put down my BP and BA prospect handbook long enough to give it time. It's a pretty good read, but I'll forewarn you that "makeup" is used liberally without caution. Although it's never defined, it seems to be the central point of the book. It's still nice to have a healthy alternative perspective.

Also Dave, do you read Baseball Prospectus? I was into it before Moneyball, but am still in it today. I won't be suprised if you aren't already familiar with it, but if not, it is another essential tool for player evaluation.

Maybe we should open a Scouts Honor Book Review thread...

by David "ohno" on Jul 26, 2005 9:13 PM MDT up reply actions

Well

Sounds like we were both out shopping for books...I just got the opposite one that you did!

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Jul 26, 2005 6:06 PM MDT reply actions

OhNo...

I own Baseball Prospectus. I also own the Prospect Handbook and John Sickel's book too. Every year when they come out I have owned them. I have every single BA Prospect Handbook since it came out (5 books).

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Jul 27, 2005 12:23 PM MDT reply actions