Rockies Top 30 PuRPs: Pre-poll discussion thread

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 6:02 AM MDT in Rockpile

Yesterday in the Pebble Report the community agreed it would be fun/informative to do a Rockies top thirty prospects poll which I have tentatively dubbed the Top 30 PuRP's (Purple Row Prospects) because the acronym sounds ghetto tough.

Anyway, this thread will be up to discuss the candidates over the next couple of days and then the actual polling begins on Friday and carries through to Sunday at midnight, Mountain Time. Qualifying candidates will be Rockies under contract who have not exhausted rookie eligibility according to MLB's Jackie Robinson Award rules: No more than 130 MLB at bats, 50 innings pitched, or forty-five days on the big league roster. This means Q and Jeff Baker still qualify, as does Ryan Shealy, for now, but most of our other big league rooks are no longer eligible as are unsigned draft picks like Reese Havens.

Now's the time to advocate prospects you have thought have been overlooked, as well as state your case against those you think are ranked too high elsewhere, or just give your general impressions or ask questions about specific prospects. The roundtable's open:

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Frames of Reference to get us started.

2005 BA top 30 prospects still eligible:

Ian Stewart
Chris Nelson
Ubaldo Jiminez
Juan Morillo
Jeff Baker
Seth Smith
Jeff Salazar
Jayson Nix
Dexter Fowler
Ryan Shealy
Jim Miller
Matt Macri
Chris Ianetta
Ryan Speier
Samuel Deduno
Choo Freeman
Ching-Lung (Dragon) Lo
Mike Esposito

As well as acquired top 30's from other teams:

Omar Quintanilla
Edwardo Sierra
Ramon Ramirez
JJ Davis

John Sickels' recent update of his Rockies preseason top 20 can be found here.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 6:28 AM MDT reply actions

Anderson Machado

If he clears waivers was also the Reds #23 prospect according to BA, but I don't know if he'll be considered here.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 9:09 AM MDT up reply actions

Of the BA list, I really don't know if Choo

still belongs and Speier seems to have slipped as well. I'd only see Q ranking in our top thirty at this time of the four we picked up from elsewhere. The only name that Sickels' list adds is Steven Register, and I really don't see him ranking that high with so many other more deserving candidates at this point.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 6:41 AM MDT reply actions

Some names we should consider:

Jud Thigpen and Ryan Spilborghs have had solid years thus far at fairly high levels of play, and don't get a lot of mention other places. Maybe we should revisit Tony Miller as well.

From Modesto, Christian Colonel and Jonathan Herrera have put together nice seasons, and Herrera's premium position status and age make him likely to crack this thing, particularly. A couple of pitchers we might consider from the Nuts besides Morillo and Miller are Marc Kaiser or Jason Burch, who have had fairly solid years and seem capable of cracking into the bigs someday.

Asheville's Matt Miller and Koshansky are the only position players to stand out enough to merit consideration beyond Nelson, but there are several pitchers who have emerged this year as potential top 30 types. Beyond Lo and Deduno, Franklin Morales and Ryan Mattheus have solidified the Tourists' rotation at a young age and relievers Scott Beerer, Adam Bright and Darric Merrell have put up some decent stats.

From the low levels, I'd only look at the premiere prospects that are young and toolsy like Fowler, Chaz Roe or Aneury Rodriguez from Casper, and Shane Lindsay and Jason van Kooten from Tri-City. The only college draftees playing down there that I'd still consider besides Tulo, are Daniel Carte and Travis Becktel, although maybe Corey Wimberly has an outside shot.

Finally Kyle Hancock and Carlos Martinez are talented enough to at least be thought of.

JMO.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 9:26 AM MDT reply actions

Oops, forgot Zach Simons

from Tri-City as another guy I'm looking at.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 9:29 AM MDT up reply actions

Another player I forgot from Modesto,

Joe Gaetti should definitely be looked at for his tools and this years' performance.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 11:53 AM MDT up reply actions

About Spillborghs, Colonel and Miller

I don't know about everybody else, but I'm leary of these guys for the fact that batting average plays such a prominent role in their success, and they all lack a previous season of such hitting. Miller deserves mention in the teens, because his power numbers are high as well, but what happens if he hits .275 in a season, would his OBP barely reach over .300? I've learned from Salazar and other prospects to discount huge numbers from Asheville a bit, but Miller's achievements can't just be overlooked. I guess I'd need to see another solid season from him before he's top ten material. As of right now, I'd say 15-20.

Colonel is another high average guy that actually can take a walk, while keeping his Ks in check. Not a lot of pure power, but has a nice doubles total. I know nothing about his defense. He's another guy I'd like to see take on Double A before he becomes anything more. Still very cautious about the totals of some guys in hitter friendly A ball leagues and parks.

Spilborghs cam out of nowhere to become a pretty solid average hitter this season. He was a bit old for a prospect in Double A, and is at the age that he needs to be sniffing the majors or moving on. Again, no season of reference to predict such high hitting totals, but he has done it at two high levels. Worth mentioning I guess, but what value does he have if he hits .275? Not a big power threat and will forever need to hit above .300 to be of value. probably still a fourth outfielder. 25-30.

i'm just leary of high average guys...

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 11:34 AM MDT reply actions

I actually agree on all three

and I'm even more doubtful of Miller than you are (I think he benefits too much from his home park) as at this point if he's going to make my list at all it's going to be in the high twenties, but I'm probably a bit higher on Colonel than you as I see him in about the same range as Miller as he's a bit more versatile on D and were he in Asheville, most of those doubles would go yard. The fact that Spilborghs is doing his damage at Tulsa, the Springs and even in a cameo for the big club makes me a bit higher on him as well and he could crack the high teens or be in the low twenties on my list, but you're right I'm advancing with caution and could change my mind on any of them.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 11:45 AM MDT up reply actions

Is Stewart a lock

for number one? He is in my book, maybe if other feel the same way we can go from there.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 11:47 AM MDT up reply actions

I don't think anybody else can claim it

Number two is going to be the really interesting question.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions

Stewart is absolutely...

#1 in my book. Nobody can touch him.

Two is going to be interesting. Jimenez, Morillo, Nelson, Tulo, others??

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 11:55 AM MDT up reply actions

I'm looking at something close to this:

Stewart
Jimenez
Morillo
Tulowitzki
Iannetta (oooh)

I'm willing to go as high an Iannetta as anyone, you just can't teach that patience, and he seems to have some pop. He could be Victor Martinez good, and should be no worse than Greg Zaun or Greg Myers. I really like this guy, any thoughts?

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 12:02 PM MDT up reply actions

I was thinking Ianetta #2

Just because pitchers scare me and you're right, those skills are special.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 12:04 PM MDT up reply actions

I thought about that

but going by upside, I think those pitchers have frontline qualities, and Tulo looks like a middle of the order shortstop with real pop and rangy defense. Still, as I said, I'm willing to go with Iannetta as high as anybody else, except Stewart obviously.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions

It's true, and U-ball's and Morillo's upside

Is as high as anybody's, so I'll probably wind up dropping Ianetta back on my final list, but I just don't want to get Ryan Anderson burned by dreaming of aces that will never come. At least with Ianetta I feel safe in predicting that he'll be a very good catcher in the majors, if not a great one. It's hard balancing the risk with the reward. Tulo's going to be good too, and could be great, but he just hasn't played professionally enough to make me feel inclined to put him higher than five right now, and he might have been in the second five had Matt Macri gone to Tulsa healthy and continued to perform there.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 12:16 PM MDT up reply actions

All true and I agree

but remember that catchers are just as tricky if not more than pitchers. You never really know about a catcher's defense until he reaches the majors, and then you have to wonder what type of toll catching will take on their hitting, so I think Iannetta is still a risk, but a more moderate one.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 12:19 PM MDT up reply actions

Catchers

are indeed tricky.

My top 5 would be:

Stewart
Jimenez
Morillo
Tulo
Nelson

I say Nelson because he still has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order hitter with power. I think the hamstring set him back, but he has been good since June.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 12:37 PM MDT up reply actions

Nelson...

has been better since June, but he has shown very little power in his bat this year. I'm a little worried.

Nobody laugh, but what about Baker at 5? I know he is injury prone, but he's still fairly young and hit pretty well at every level except the majors.

by DenverBears on Aug 3, 2005 1:29 PM MDT up reply actions

Im not laughing

I see no problem with Baker at 5. He has a lot of potential.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 1:39 PM MDT up reply actions

I agree Baker's a wild-card and with his

talent he could go this high, but without a wow factor to his performance to date and with his injury history, I'm ranking him lower, myself. Again, though, with his upside and combined with playing at the AAA/MLB level, I can see why some might put him up here.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 2:48 PM MDT up reply actions

I put Baker

this high because originally, he was supposed to start the year at Tulsa. So his performance has actually impressed me in that he was put in a higher level than his development would have put him.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 2:56 PM MDT up reply actions

From the BA:

Here is who I see in competition at least at each level:

CASPER: Hancock, Roe, Durden, Rodriguez, Garner, Fowler.
TRI-CITY: Lindsay, Simons, Carte, Becktel.
ASHEVILLE: Morales, Lo, Deduno, Koshansky, Miller, Nelson.
MODESTO: Stewart, Tulo, Colonel, Gaetti, Morillo, Burch, Herrera, Smith.
TULSA: Iannetta, Jimenez, T. Miller, J. Miller, Nix, Macri, Sierra, Ramirez, Parker, Nin.
COLORADO SPRINGS: Baker, Spilborghs, Salazar, Davis, Freeman, Shealy (though now at COL), Young, Esposito, Quintanilla.
D.R.: Carlos Martinez (due to potential, $ given to him).

Theres 44 guys that need to be squeezed into 30. If I could pick 14 then I dont think will/should be on the list, it would be:

Freeman, Davis, Esposito, Gaetti, Garner, Durden, Colonel, Herrera, Carte, Becktel, Spilborghs, Nin, Ramirez, Burch.

I think those 14 are right on the brink, but they dont quite make it. Thats an impressive group of guys that I dont think make it. So here's my 30, in no particular order:

Hancock, Roe, Rodriguez, Fowler, Lindsay, Simons, Morales, Lo, Deduno, Koshansky, Miller, Nelson, Stewart, Tulo, Morillo, Smith, Iannetta, Jimenez, T. Miller, J. Miller, Nix, Macri, Sierra, Parker, Baker, Salazar, Shealy, Young, Quintanilla, Carlos Martinez.

This is just my opinion. Thoughts anybody?

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 11:52 AM MDT reply actions

Who's the third Miller?

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 11:56 AM MDT up reply actions

Oh I get it, Matt

I think I already discussed him, I'd definitely pick Gaetti over him.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions

Also, I'd choose Esposito over Parker

and probably wouldn't include Carlos Martinez or Sierra, replacing them with Herrera and somebody, maybe Matt Miller squeaks back in at that point.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 12:00 PM MDT up reply actions

Or better yet, include Spilly.

There are just so many and this is hard.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 12:03 PM MDT up reply actions

Jim Miller

Anyone else as impressed by this guy as I am? His numbers look better than Ryan Speier's did as Speier climbed through the organization. His ERA is about a run and a half higher than it should be given his rate stats. It's tough to rank a relief pitcher in a prospect list, but Jim Miller's gotta be in my top 10.

Bring Back Tim Harikkala!

by Franchise26 on Aug 3, 2005 12:11 PM MDT reply actions

I'll jump on that bandwagon

at least into the top fifteen. His rates are ungodly and he has the makings of no worse than an eighth inning set-up guy, and has closer qualities. tulsa will be a breath of fresh air for him, and his ERA will rebound nicely.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 12:17 PM MDT up reply actions

I like Miller a lot, and the only reason

he might not make my top ten is that there is just so much talent that his skills are overshadowed a bit. There's really no comparison to him and Speier.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 12:19 PM MDT up reply actions

I'm always skeptical

of relievers at lower levels. If the organization really thought the guy had a future, they'd probably have him starting games at lower levels. Now, Miller and Burch have stats that are too good to ignore, but still, you have to wonder. Burch didn't even make the Cardinals' top 30 last season, if I recall, and the Cardinals have the weakest farm system in the majors (according to BA.)

by Rox Fan in TN on Aug 3, 2005 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions

Point of reference for my opinions

I'm not going to include anybody on my list that hasn't played an inning of pro ball yet (i.e. Hancock, Martinez) because there are just too many unknown factors to take into effect. While I'm sure that Hancock deserves the high esteem to which we seem to hold him here, I just can't put him on a list above guys who have professional experience.

Bring Back Tim Harikkala!

by Franchise26 on Aug 3, 2005 12:14 PM MDT reply actions

Should Baker remain in the top ten?

His power hasn't been as advertised, and his strikeouts look to be high again. I know others are high on him, but he's never given me a good vibe, even when I watched him at Driller Stadium. Everyone always speaks on potential with him, and I just don't see him being a 25-30 homer guy. maybe he just needs an injury free year, but he'll be 25 next year, and his prospect window will be closing. He's still a top 30, but a power hitting prospect should be slugging over .500 in the Springs. 11-20 for this guy in my opinion.

Also I think it's time to honor Shealy as the masher he is, and put him into the bottom half of the top ten. only problem with him is that he may not qualify for the list at the end of the season.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 12:16 PM MDT reply actions

My Second Five

I haven't figured out where I'm ranking them yet, but Nelson, Shealy, Macri, Quintanilla, Morales, and Salazar are the leading contenders, with Jim Miller and Baker being in the thought process.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 12:38 PM MDT up reply actions

I want to

include Spilborghs...but his age really is getting to me, along with that he has never hit over .281 in ANY season. I just dont see it.

As for Martinez and Hancock, I am inclined to put them in. Especially with the money thrown at each and their potential. I am not basing this only on stats/production, but also potential, just like a publication would.

I see Baker around the 8-10 area. I really think he is going to be a stud. He hasnt gotten consistent AB's to get his power going, but the guy does have really good power.

Im worried about Gaetti's age to pick him over Matt Miller. I see Miller over Gaetti, although Gaetti in my book barely misses the list.

I like Parker more than I do Esposito. I see Parker as a guy more likely to succeed and has more potential. A lefty that can throw strikes, etc is invaluable. I really like Parker, and if not for his injury last year, I think we would be talking about him more than we do.

Jim Miller is absolutely think he is around the 12-15 area. He has been nothing but outstanding.

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 12:35 PM MDT reply actions

Sorry, I think I'll just wind up disagreeing there

Miller's home/road splits continue to be less than impressive and Gaetti has more power potential despite being older. The only things he was lacking coming into this year were patience, and an ability to go the other way on outside pitches, and over the last month and a half he's shown a lot of improvement at both. His defense is better (particularly arm strength and accuracy) and though neither fit as centerfielders at Coors, their ranges are similar.

Spilly is old, and I might drop him out yet, but I can't ignore what he's done on three upper levels this year. He's slumping a little lately, however, so that could factor into my decision. I think I might go yes on Hancock, but no on Martinez just because I have stats to look at on Kyle and he is a bit more advanced, but I haven't come to that yet.

Esposito is as young, but he's a level ahead of Parker, and pitching about as well given the differences in park factors. I give Parker a little credit for being a lefty, but not enough to make up for the differences of advancement.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 12:49 PM MDT up reply actions

hmmm

maybe you are right on Gaetti and Miller. Wow there is so many players that I dont know who to put where or what 30. wow...this is getting hard. At least I couple of days to figure it out.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions

Fun project here - I think I'll join in...

I'm really struggling to figure out where to put Jim Miller. On the one hand, the only pitchers he clearly deserves to rank below are Jimenez, Morillo, and Morales. But on the other hand, is Miller really any better than Jason Burch? Their numbers this year are very similar, and Miller is six months older... so if Miller is our fourth-best pitching prospect, I think Burch has to fall into the top six or seven. And I'm just not sure if it makes sense to rank Miller and Burch above high-upside starters like Lindsay and Deduno. Thoughts?

I've pretty much settled on a top four of Stewart, Jimenez, Morillo, and Iannetta. The #5 spot is a tougher call; I'm leaning towards Tulowitzki, but Nelson and Morales are also in the picture.

As for the Esposito/Parker discussion: Esposito has been slightly above average in AAA this year. I'm not sure that Parker even belongs in the top 30; we've been hearing about his potential for years, but he's almost 24 and he's still struggling in AA...

by Heltonfan on Aug 3, 2005 2:08 PM MDT reply actions

Good call on Burch/Miller

The stats show less of a difference than I thought they would. I think part of it might boil down to the whole debate of whether closers are a superior breed over other relievers, certainly (which I disagree with in the minors especially) but I think it's also because Miller's pitches are still more developed, as he's got the mid-nineties fastball, but his hard slider and change-up are out pitches as well. Burch's fastball is a little slower, he still works right around 90 mph, but his slider is devastating and he doesn't really have a changeup to speak of yet. I think as the two advance the differences will become more clear in the stats, unless Burch does some catch-up with his development, but if they don't then apparently Burch has some extra mustard on that cheese we're not seeing.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 3:05 PM MDT up reply actions

BP warns about A ball pitchers

with average fastballs and quality breaking balls seeing a dip in their K rate as they move up. If Burch's fastball is just average that may be a concern, but since I have not seen it or have a scouts take, for all I know it could have serious sink, which is a plus, I will reserve judgement on him. He is tall though (6'5), so perhaps the plane of delivery is tough on hitters.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 3:14 PM MDT up reply actions

On Burch and Miller

Miller strikes out two more batters per nine while walking one less, putting his rates slightly ahead of Burch. We also know that Miller features mid-90s heat with a plus slider and change, but know little about Burch's stuff. I see Burch more along the lines as being on the watch list for next season, hoping he repeats his success. You make a good point about the two though. Burch has also had varied success in the past, whereas Miller is in his second year and maintained consistency in a hitters environment.

I like Deduno over Miller, yes there, so I agree with you on that. Lindsay has made significant progress this season and could creep into the top thirty, but I think pitchers in rookie ball deserve a slight downgrade when compared to the A ball guys, except his K rate is outstanding, so he'll get a look(and he should be promoted). Remember with Deduno that he was outstanding when he was 100% healthy at the start of the year, and is trying to regain consistency after a long layoff. His K rates are fabulous and they warranted the third spot behind Jimenez and Morillo. As far as pitchers go, I like this roughly:

Jimenez
Morillo
Deduno
Miller
Morales
Simons (opponents average below mendoza line)
Lindsay
Parker
Roe
Burch

But I do reserve the right to change my mind. Any thoughts on this list?

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 3:11 PM MDT up reply actions

Here's a good article

With Bill Geivett's take on Burch's stuff.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 3:14 PM MDT up reply actions

Sierra could be entered

into the bottom of that list too, based solely on his minor league level and power stuff.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 3:16 PM MDT up reply actions

Also, I would definitely put Morales

over both Miller and Deduno, as his stats are about as good as Deduno's, he's a couple of years younger, and he's left-handed. I'm thinking Aneury Rodriguez should rank in the top ten just because he's playing professionally at seventeen and holding his own in a hitter's league, even though it's short season Casper.

Then after that it's a matter of whether you like proven results over potential as to where they rank. I see you're mostly in the potential boat, so your dropping Morales and not including Rodriguez kind of surprised me.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 3:18 PM MDT up reply actions

Actually I'm a rates guy

specifically K rates, in which Deduno has been very special. He's higher than morales because of his performance pre-injury, and his last year totals. I'm not disagreeing on Morales, he has a high ceiling and solid rates too, but he is just getting his feet wet in a starting role in Asheville, while Deduno has been starting the entire season, and I think he is a little further along, despite the injury. I understand Rodriguez has outstanding potential, but I don't like to speculate on players that young in their first season of pro ball without a season of reference. Dealing with low A hurlers is enough of a risk, Rodriguez to me is pure speculation. Nice talent no doubt, but I'd like to see a full season's worth of numbers first. Now Roe and Simons are a bit different. Roe is a first round guy that I have scouts takes readily available. I also have information on Simons and really like his average against, despite below average Ks.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 3:31 PM MDT up reply actions

In regards to Rodriguez

I really like him. You look at his stats, they are similar to Morales, Deduno, Morillo, and Jimenez. Add on the fact that he is only 17 years old, the same age as me, and it is very impressive what he is doing in my mind.

I am a big fan of K rates too. Normally, K's indicate future success because it shows that a player has "stuff". Walks are a hard thing to judge, if a player has a lot of walks, such as Morillo before his year, Jimenez, and Deduno, because they are still learning how to harness it.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 3:37 PM MDT up reply actions

You are right about rates

plus they exhibit a pitcher's abiity to dictate contol of the game. a pitcher that strikes out over 9 batters in 9 innings will be less dependent on their defense and more likely to pitch their way out of jams, or not get into so many jams in the first place.

Rodriguez has the current rates of 5.4 K/9 and 3.5 W/9 while giving up an average of .307 which is quite a ways off of our top pitching prospects. In Deduno's first year in Casper, he dominated the league to the tune of 13.9 Ks per nine and a 3.18 ERA, Morales smilary hade a high K rate, 11.35, but had a poor ERA , 7.62, so while Rodriguez may be younger than both, his performance thus far doesn't warrant a mentioning with Deduno and Morales. Again, nice talent worth looking at for consideration next season. He still has a ways to go, and could easily repeat at Casper next season.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 3:46 PM MDT up reply actions

Oh Im sorry...

I didnt mean to mention Deduno in that same sentence. He dominated and was named pitcher of the year.

Morillo for example in Casper pitched 64 innings, gave up 85 hits, 40 walks, and 44 strikeouts. That gives him a rate of only 6.1 K/9, while 5.6 BB/9. So that is why I compare them. Morillo gave up an average of .318!!

In regards to Morales, he had the K rate, but he led the league in hits allowed and earned runs allowed.

Jimenez gave up an average of .288.

So in Rodriguez's case, he is 17 years old, throws hard, and has numbers not quite to the degree of some, but impressive none the less, IMO, considering his age. I think he has to be in there.

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 4:23 PM MDT up reply actions

No problem

I didn't look at Morillo's numbers, so a comparison could be made there. Plus, doesn't Rodriguez deal in the mid-high ninties as well? I have no problem with him being in the list, because he is talented. I just see a few pitchers with a bit more polished, but if Rodriguez is included I'm not going to complain.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 4:33 PM MDT up reply actions

I made contact

a little bit ago to the Casper Rockies about Rodriguez. Here is what they told me.

David-

Sorry it took 10 days to respond to your questions regarding Anuery Rodriguez. I am right in the middle of a very busy season and am on the road with the team every other week, so promptness isn't always top priority.

Rodriguez skipped the Dominican Summer League because his potential is through the roof. At 17, he throws a 93-mph fastball that has topped out at 98-mph, as well as a sharp curveball and solid change-up considering his age. Needless to say the big Rockies are very high on him. Hope that helps, take care.

Add to the fact he is 6-4, his first year in pro ball, and I think we have ourselves a pretty darn good prospect. So I think he could be like Morillo, considering he has been topped at 98 at 17 years of age. Shoot, I wish I had an arm like that.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 4:45 PM MDT up reply actions

It all makes sense to me now,

I can see how your rankings are justifiable that way, although I disagree still about Morales. What do you think of Dragon Lo, his game to game performance this year has been mixed, his stuff isn't developing like we thought it would when we signed him, but he's still young and his rates aren't too shabby and a lot of his troubles are directly attributable to being an RHP in McCormick Field. Anyway, we haven't discussed him yet, so I want to see where everybody thinks he stands.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 3:42 PM MDT up reply actions

I would have him close to the top 10..

actually, for me, it is almost a deadlock tie between Parker and Lo. I really like Lo and think he has a lot of potential still. Many of us forget--he is still ONLY a teenager. It is amazing to think he has been here that long and is still only one. I might even rank him ahead of Rodriguez...

Dang, there are so many names, when it comes to putting a list together, I am struggling!!!

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 3:45 PM MDT up reply actions

I don't like him yet

I understand he is young, but when is he going to start taking positive steps? Struggling in a repeat season is never a good sign, and he likely will continue his slide down BAs top thirty. For a supposed power pitcher, hitters are teeing off on him to the tune of .307 and twenty homers, that figure tops of all Asheville pitchers. for reference, Deduno gives up an average of .228, Morales at .234, so Lo is not in their class. He's worth adding to an organizational depth chart because he's still young, but he's going backwards fast and is clearly overshadowed by the performances of Deduno and Morales, and is the fifth best pitcher on the staff, behind both Bright and Beerer as well.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 3:54 PM MDT up reply actions

I agree

with you on that fact. I hadnt looked up the numbers on Lo. He was very impressive early in the season, but then went on a bad streak. I hope he continues to progress though, and shows some signs of stepping forward.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 4:47 PM MDT up reply actions

Top 10 pitchers

Jimenez
Morillo
Morales (younger than Deduno, similar numbers, lefty)
Deduno
Lindsay (dominate, same level, younger than Simons)
Miller
Roe (first rounder. great stuff.)
Simons
Rodriguez (kid my age holding his own in Casper deserves props)
Parker

That would be my 10.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 3:26 PM MDT up reply actions

Your list

I like this list, though I'd go some different directions with my top 10 arms - I'm really high on Lindsay because his strikeout rate was excellent last season and it's only getting better, and I'd have Burch in here somewhere.

My Top Ten:

1 - Jimenez
2 - Morillo
3 - Miller
4 - Lindsay
5 - Deduno
6 - Morales
7 - Roe
8 - Simons
9 - Burch
10 - Strickland/Johnston (can't decide between the two, but they've been dominant thus far and I think relief prospects are more likely to duplicate their performances as they move up the ladder than starters)

Bring Back Tim Harikkala!

by Franchise26 on Aug 3, 2005 3:49 PM MDT up reply actions

Top five

Haven't really had the time to think about an entire list yet, but I'll join. I'm looking at Stewart as #1, still, and the next four, in no particular order, will probably be Tulo, U-ball, Shealy, and Morillo, with Nelson and Iannetta also getting consideration.

by Rox Fan in TN on Aug 3, 2005 3:10 PM MDT reply actions

Rox Head enters the Room (Don't laugh!)

Rox Head is going to come about the list with the thought of which players project to fit onto the Rockies team by 2008. For instance, Head will discount any and all possible corner outfielders because those two slots are taken for the next ten years in Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe. However, Head will not discount Ryan Shealy because its obvious that this ownership group will eventually force a trade of Todd Helton.

Pitching prospects are hard to predict and especially so because this GM changes his mind every week as to what fits his 'profile'.

Since we have had a running top twenty everyday prospect list and a top ten pitching list all year on Rox Head, it would go against logic if I veered from that list, however, I'm going to make a couple moves based on what I wrote above.

Preliminary top ten for Purple Rows study:

Ian Stewart--everyone's choice. Third baseman in 2008.
Ubaldo Jimenez--Will he fit the profile next week?
Ryan Shealy--Could argue that he should be number 1 since he is proving himself in the Show already.
Juan Morillo--See number two.
Troy Tulo--Shortstop in 2007 (Barmes to second).
Jim Miller--Could argue for him to be number two.
Joe Gaetti--The Major Leagues has been flowing through his veins all his life and those bloodlines will produce the Rockies Centerfielder from 2008-2018.
John Ashina--See number two.
Matt Miller--If Gaetti slips for a second, then Miller snags the spot from him.
Chris Iannetta--Catcher in 2007.

The second ten would be all the players who slot in only when a trade is made at the Major League level (ie Baker, Nelson, Deduna.,,etc.)

by roxhead on Aug 3, 2005 3:47 PM MDT reply actions

Wow, John Asahina,

He's going to get twenty-three points from your ballot alone. You guys aren't related, are you? :)

No I'm just kidding, as long as the ballots aren't completely silly ballots (the entire squad of the Dominican Rockies, or lots of votes for Brian Kirby number one) and the players are eligible according to the rules we set, then we're going to take them. Although I will use this thread to ask for why you feel he should be rated so high over other pitchers who DO'D could choose such as Parker or Esposito or Nin, as I am curious.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 4:01 PM MDT up reply actions

I've watched Asahina in Tulsa

he doesn't stand out over any pitcher I've seen on either teams. It's odd that he was signed as a minor league free agent from Florida after having decent numbers. Still, he doesn't throw very hard and doesn't have the luxury of being left handed like Parker. None of his numbers really stand out. I really just don't see how he fits into the big teams picture anytime soon.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 4:10 PM MDT up reply actions

Asahina

I like to see a pitcher improve steadily and he has shown the abilty to handle AA. Time after time, if you see a pitcher succeed at that level, then they can easily project out to the Major League level. He doesnt have great size, 6'1" and he is already 24, but he doesnt give up a lot of homers and his 24 walks in 139 innings is what the Rockies need.

I look for him to move up to AAA soon and compete for a spot next spring.

by roxhead on Aug 3, 2005 4:15 PM MDT up reply actions

Addition..

Four complete games with one being a shutout.

I understand it's a reach, but other top guys have struggled this year (ie Chin Lo, Deduna and Jimenez) while Asahina has been steady.

I have not seen him pitch so that is a concern.. Since Koolaid has, then I respect that and will take the criticism to heart.

by roxhead on Aug 3, 2005 4:31 PM MDT up reply actions

Fair enough

I'm noticing actually that many of these other lists aren't including the more advanced young pitchers in the system like Esposito and Parker and I suppose even Asahina and Nin at Tulsa. It's tricky to strike a balance between performance and potential, and prospects at this stage (AA and AAA) are easier to project into their future roles than those at lower levels and I think having the future wide open like that inflates the kids' values a bit too much sometimes.

The top fifteen are so much easier than the bottom fifteen for that reason to me as I'm finding myself having to weigh prospects on completely different scales and then trying to compare the results somehow.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 4:33 PM MDT up reply actions

Remember that last season

we had 14 pitchers in the top 30 according to BA. So far, we've come up with eight names consistently. If 14-15 is a good benchmark for the amount of pitchers, I think Parker, Nin, Esposito and Young get into the back half of the top 30. The other guys have such high ceilings that it makes since to rate them high, whereas these guys listed are seen as back of rotation, relief help guys. just a thought...

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 4:38 PM MDT up reply actions

It's true, but I guess, I'm mostly

curious about how high Jason Burch and Zach Simons are hitting on the consensus polls. Burch's numbers are good through High A, but he's a reliever and doesn't have the stuff of Jim Miller -who is the only relief pitcher I'm going to rank- while Simons is the opposite, he's got the stuff but not the numbers or experience and I don't know if I'd put either of them above these more experienced and proven starters, despite questions of who's stuff or ceiling is better.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 4:44 PM MDT up reply actions

A ella le gusta la Asahina...

Dáme más Asahina!

(I'm sorry - way too much Daddy Yankee in my life right now)

Bring Back Tim Harikkala!

by Franchise26 on Aug 3, 2005 6:33 PM MDT up reply actions

of the list of pitchers thus far

Eight names figure into each, those being Jimenez, Morales, Morillo, Deduno, Miller, Simons, Roe and Lindsay. is it safe to say that these guys are the top eight concensus pitchrs in the system?

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 3:59 PM MDT reply actions

It would seem that way, right now,

Although the two draftees from this year leave me wondering if this initial list will reflect our excitement over the draft more than performance and proven capability. I think it will be interesting to see how the list evolves over the course of the year, certainly.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 4:22 PM MDT up reply actions

I agree...

the concensus 8 seem to be Jimenez, Morillo, Simons, Roe, Lindsay, Miller, Morales, Deduno. I think you might be able to add Lo to the mix, depending on other peoples thoughts.

I dont think it is getting excited over the draft. These guys have talent. Roe was a first rounder that was projected to be a first rounder (almost taken by the Braves. That has to count for something!), while Simons was solid in college and has been so far outstanding.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 4:28 PM MDT reply actions

Pitchers

I don't know anything about Simons from a scouting perspective, but it's awfully hard for me to get excited about a guy who's striking out less than five batters per nine innings. And while his hit rate is low, it's important to note that he's pitching in a very low-offense environment (the NWL as a whole is quite pitcher-friendly, and Tri-City even more so).

Also, I'm surprised to see some of you ranking Deduno ahead of Morales. Deduno does have the better pre-2005 track record, no question about it, but Morales is three years younger and has clearly been the better of the two this year.

My preliminary pitching top 10 (since everyone else is doing it):

Jimenez
Morillo
Morales
Miller
Lindsay
Deduno
Burch
Roe
Lo
Esposito

by Heltonfan on Aug 3, 2005 4:35 PM MDT reply actions

I agree regarding Simons

His stuff is great, and I want to believe he'll be like an Aaron Cook who gets through with excellent stuff despite the power numbers, but I'll be more convinced of that when he goes to a hitters league or park and proves it than in the NWL.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 4:40 PM MDT up reply actions

I have heard

that Simons has great stuff. He isnt going to get the strikeouts because he keeps the ball on the ground. From BA:

A 38th-round pick from an obscure Idaho high school in 2003, Simons went unnoticed as a freshman at Everett Community College in 2004. Not only did Oakland make little attempt to sign him, but no other club saw fit to draft a player with a high-80s fastball. Simons was a different player this year. With an additional 20 pounds on his 6-foot-3 frame, he began pumping low- to mid-90s fastballs, an increase of 4-5 mph, and holding his velocity deep into games. He became the marquee talent in what may be the best crop of players ever to come out of the Northwest Athletic Association of Community Colleges. Simons has a quick arm and generates electric stuff with a loose, easy delivery. In addition to his fastball, he flashes a slider with bite and depth, though the pitch is inconsistent. He has little feel for a changeup. Simons and J.T. Zink, a former San Diego State righthander, formed a dynamic 1-2 pitching punch this spring at Everett, but were forced to work deep into games on a regular basis because of a thin bullpen. Somewhat raw, Simons is still more of a thrower than pitcher. All his flaws are correctable, scouts say.

So he is still raw...so we must give him time. He has electric stuff, so I assume that as he continues to learn how to pitch and put hitters away, he will strike more guys out. He is impressive though so far in my mind.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 4:54 PM MDT up reply actions

Oh don't get me wrong

I am impressed with him and his wicked stuff, I'm just not convinced yet until I see a bit more of the polish. He's probably going to be in my top thirty and he ranks in my top fifteen pitchers certainly, but I think I'm ranking both Esposito and Parker ahead of him because I'm not ready to get completely on board for a pitcher who is so raw. In my rankings he and Rodriguez are at a similar level. I'm planning on moving one or both up rapidly as they ascend, but right now I'm reserving judgement and playing it a bit more conservatively.

My top pitchers:

U-ball
Morillo
Morales
Miller
Deduno
Lindsay
Lo
Esposito
Roe
Parker
Nin
Rodriguez
Simons
Jason Young
Kyle Hancock

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 5:07 PM MDT up reply actions

After further thought,

I'm going to reverse the positions of Rodriguez and Lo. That much talent for a seventeen year old is phenomenal, while Lo just hasn't shown enough results to merit being that high.

by Rox Girl on Aug 4, 2005 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions

I agree

Despite Lo's good start last night....like I said earlier, anybody that is my age and is doing what Rodriguez did is phenomenal. Obviously, the Rockies think the same way, sending him to the States and allowing him to skip the DSL completely.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 4, 2005 10:53 AM MDT up reply actions

Simons

I dont have him even on my radar.. I need to check him out.

by roxhead on Aug 3, 2005 6:02 PM MDT up reply actions

Simons

My big concern with Simons is his mechanics. I made mention of this in my draft post over at UItR way back when.

Watching Simons' mechanics, I get the sense that he's a max effort guy - that is to say, he's straining himself to be able to throw as hard as he does. In comparison, Chaz Roe is a guy who has a nice, easy, fluid mechanical style. Pitchers with mechanics like Roe have less injury risk as well as better control (usually) and more room to gain velocity, while with Simons, what we're seeing right now stuff-wise could be all he's capable of.

I don't mean to be pessimistic in regards to Simons, as he looks promising, but the max-effort mechanics worry me just a bit.

Bring Back Tim Harikkala!

by Franchise26 on Aug 3, 2005 6:31 PM MDT up reply actions

Damn

I'm gone for most of the day and I miss out on the start of some good discussions.

by Russ Oates on Aug 3, 2005 4:59 PM MDT reply actions

Please feel free to

make your comments at any point in these discussions, even if they were this morning. Especially on the pitchers debate and the Miller-Colonel-Spilborghs early discussion.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 5:31 PM MDT up reply actions

I'll try but

I'm really disheartened that Foppa went to Philly of all teams.

by Russ Oates on Aug 3, 2005 5:40 PM MDT up reply actions

What?!! FORSBERG went to Philly?

I really need to check on other sports more often, that really bums me out.

by Rox Girl on Aug 3, 2005 6:17 PM MDT up reply actions

RFNY

and its a lot of comments to catch up on too!!! lol

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 3, 2005 5:02 PM MDT reply actions

I'm headed to Driller Stadium

hopefully to see my top five pick Iannetta, he was pulled in the middle of their last game...

when I get back, I'll attempt to address the issue on why I have Deduno higher than Morales on my list (With these two, does it really matter anyways?). also Nin is pitching and I haven't seen him yet, so hopefully I can offer some answers as to why he's experienced relative success thus far.

by David "ohno" on Aug 3, 2005 5:29 PM MDT reply actions

OhNo

looks like Nin had a GREAT game. 8 innings, 4 hits, 0 walks, 4 strikeouts. I really think he is improving his status as a prospect. He is now SECOND in the Texas League in ERA, behind by only .07.

Also, why was Iannnetta pulled? Did he get hurt or something?

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 4, 2005 12:58 AM MDT up reply actions

I'm not sure on Iannetta

local coverage on these things isn't great, and he didn't play again last night obviously.

As for Nin, he has a very gimmicky wind-up, possibly leading to deception for his fastball. He's literally a short arming, over the top, pitcher, coiling the ball just inches fom his head before letting it go, and he ran his fastball on the high side more often than not. His slighter was pretty overpoering last night and looks like it has great depth, and hitters really struggled to hit anything square last night until the eighth inning. Old BA books say Nin works from 92-95 with a power, and he looked like more of a prospect to me last night, granted that Wichita team is a sad sack of hangers ons and Pressley. If anyone worries about Nin's workload, if last night was a good reference, he throws so many strikes and gets so many quick outs, it seemed like the defense was hardly in the field last night.

Jud Thigpen hit a homer that cleared the netting in left field that is supposed to keep home run balls off of the adjacent street. He is good every time I've seen him, but haven't seen him in the field, nor do I know if he's more tha a fourth-fifth outfielder. will rank higher on my prospect list than Spilborghs and Colonel, though.

Quick thoughts; Tony Miller had a good game in center, catching two at the wall and showing much better reads on balls than when he plays in left, is a true centerfielder. First time to see Czarniecki, and he's taller than I expected, despite the listed 6'1, looked good at the plate and could be a solid leadoff guy, was in left and only made one play I can remember, it seems like defense is hard to judge with Nin on the mound. Barker has the physical build of a great outfield prospect, but is no more than an organizational soldier at this point. Of all the relievers to run out there, I see Jentry Beakstead for the umteenth time. No Sierra, or Miller, or even Crockett? Jentry is just average at best, but hey, if you are a Rockie reliever, and you nake it to the Springs, you have a solid chance of seeing a week of the show at some point during the year, and that should count for something right?

by David "ohno" on Aug 4, 2005 9:10 AM MDT up reply actions

What happened

to the craziness of yesterday?? no new comments...we gotta figure this stuff out! lol

Debate...debate...debate. i was having fun with this.

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 4, 2005 3:03 PM MDT reply actions

Apparently everybody has settled on their choices

I know I personally am still having issues with my bottom five, tentatively the following:

Dragon Lo
Jonathan Herrera
Sandy Nin
Travis Becktel
Zach Simons

My last two cuts were Kyle Hancock and Zach Parker, but I've been moving those five around all day.

by Rox Girl on Aug 4, 2005 3:19 PM MDT up reply actions

Oh well...

in that case, I am still working on mine, constantly moving people around. I guess like you said, people have settled on theirs, or gotten the different opinions they want to hear about certain players, and now they are moving guys around??

I know that is what I am doing, and obviously you. It should be interesting when everybody presents theres.

David

by Rockiesbiggestfan on Aug 4, 2005 3:22 PM MDT reply actions