can the rockies keep it up?

by DenverBears on May 9, 2006 4:48 PM MDT Comment 15 comments

Is the hitting a fluke or are the rockies this good--I thought I would do a position by position analysis.

C--Ardoin/Ojeda--Ardoin is a career .206 hitter in the majors--he's unlikely to get better, but couldn't get much worse. Maybe time to bring back Closser
1B--Helton-.323/.482/.585--typical Helton--but he was out for a while, so production from 1b should improve.
2B--Carroll/Smith/Gonzalez--Carroll and Smith are playing over their heads, Gonzalez is slumping--overall a little better than expected, but not much.
3B--Atkins--huge improvement over last years numbers, but had some good years in the minors. Can he keep it up? My guess probably not, but I also don't expect him to drop back to last year's numbers either.
SS--Barmes--not a good start, but keep in mind he only had one good year in the minors, so he isn't a sure thing. Nonetheless, he should improve some.
LF--Holliday--he simply isn't this good--never hit more than 16 HRs or 28 2Bs in the minors--on pace for 45 and 50. He's due for a let-down.
CF--Sullivan--huge improvement over last year, but he hit in the minors (including a lot of 2Bs) and skipped AAA last year. The improvement may or may not be a fluke.
RF--Hawpe can hit as evidenced by his minor league records, but this is a bit ridiculous. I expect a decline, but not to 2005 levels.

So my guess--
From this point on, the rockies get more production out of the C, SS, 1B positions.

Similar production from 2B, CF

Small, but significant production drop from 3B, RF

Huge production drop out of LF

I fully expected when I started this, that I would conclude that the Rockies performance so far is a fluke, but now I'm not so sure. My guess, is that overall run production will go down a little, but not much the rest of the season. What does everyone else think?

Poll

Run production will be...

lower during the rest of the season

2 votes

higher

0 votes

about the same

3 votes

5 votes | Poll has closed

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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Comments

Good Diary

I've been meaning to touch on this, maybe next week we'll go over the pitching which is way over its head in the pen, but probably just hitting a good stride in the rotation. Anyway, as far as what I think about our hitters:

Catcher: Will definitely improve the rest of the season. I don't think Ardoin's stay with us will last much longer, and between Torrealba, Closser and Ojeda, we should get back up to league average production.

First: Like you, I see this staying about the same. In fact, Helton could have a better year than last with more protection in the lineup.

Second Base: I'm really not sure we get better here without a trade. Right now I see a definite decline.

Shortstop: I don't know. I think Barmes is slumping a bit and is definitely capable of more, it's just amatter of correcting his approach to bring it more in line with what he was doing at the beginning of last year and in the Springs in 2004.

Third: I think Atkins will go through a slump at some point this season, but I don't think he's playing over his head. With the slump in mind, I think you're okay in seeing a small but significant drop.

Left: Matt Holliday could very well be one of those players where his previous stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. His physical skills have always had this kind of production in them, it's just he hasn't ever put everything together. I really don't think it will be as much a drop as you're seeing here, bur we can probably will see a bit of a fallback.

Center: I'm more skeptical about Sullivan, but I hope you're right.

Right: I really think Hawpe will have a monster season this year. Watch out.

Yeah, as far as our offense, if we can get an upgrade at second and maybe catcher, I think we'll be fine for the rest of the season with who we have. Should Barmes continue to slump badly, at least we have Tulo waiting in the wings this year.

by Rox Girl on May 9, 2006 5:25 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

aargh editing...

I mangled my Holliday comment, I hope you understood my gist, though.

by Rox Girl on May 9, 2006 5:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The debate of debates for Rockie fans

and a very good diary. I'm sure this will get plenty of burn the next few days.

I agree with most all of your assessments, but there are a few particulars.

One is, like rox girl, I think this is the Matt Holliday we can expect. There are just some players, Jason Bay in particular, that seem to take a while to allow their tools to catch up to the speed of the game. I remember articles from the Tulsa World that said Holliday would put on a show in afternoon batting practice, but that power wouldn't always show up in games. When you look at his length and musculature, he has all of the qualities of a power hitter.

Where Holliday falls short of being a great player is in plate discipline. He will forever be a frustrating player because he will swing in 2-0 counts and on any first pitch strike, rather than go deep in counts to see "his" pitch. He'll have slugging and solid batting averages, but little on base. Basically, he is the new Garrett Anderson, who needs to hit around .300 and slug around .500 to be an valuable commodity in the middle of the order, but I think he can.

I don't see improvement at second or short. Barmes refusal to be patient leaves him at the mercy of the pitching, making him pretty unreliable. Carroll is all batting average, he will be taking a plunge soon. Gonzalez should improve, based on history, but he's no guarantee.

Hopefully Torreallba will provide a spark, and if he just plays at his .250-ish average and solid defense, we'll take it.

by David "ohno" on May 9, 2006 8:17 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

stats

I thought I would post the current stats by position so we could check our predictions at the end of the year. Here they are:
pos BA OBP SA OPS OPS(rank)
C .210    .277 .328 .605 28
1B .283 .420 .517 .937 11
2B .307 .380 .465 .845 5
3B .304 .379 .474 .853 16
SS .238    .263 .343 .606 26
LF .313    .342 .653 .995 2
CF .289    .331 .463 .794 8
RF .344 .438 .608 1.046 2

The composite stats for 2B are better than I would have guessed, so I will amend my 2B prediction to a drop. Also, 3B production is less than I would have thought so I'll move to no change.

So, ground rules...I will use OPS as standard for my predictions...I am predicting what the composite will be at the end of the season (this will include early season stats, which will moderate changes)
more than 50 point increase: SS, C (if nothing else, bring back Closser)
20 to 50 point increase: 1B
<30 point change: 3B, CF
20 to 50 drop: 2B
>50 point drop: LF, RF

by DenverBears on May 10, 2006 5:35 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

early update....

2 weeks after I wrote this, the Rockies have a lower OPS at every position except....LF.

by DenverBears on May 25, 2006 3:12 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

ugh not good...

at 3 weeks after initial posting the OPS by position
C .561 (29)
1B .847 (15)
2B .797 (10)
3B .845 (13)
SS .487 (30)
LF 1.001 (3)
CF .732 (17)
RF 1.000 (1)

down at every position except LF.

Oh...and I have to laugh at myself for saying that it can't get any worse at SS. Maybe its time to give Q a shot.

by DenverBears on May 31, 2006 4:58 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

and the big question...

the team composite:
.276 .346 .454 .800 (3rd in NL)

I say about the same (<20 point).

also, I should have said <20 rather than <30.

by DenverBears on May 10, 2006 6:03 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

update

now the season composite is:
.269/.335/.441/.776 (7th in NL)

a bad two weeks for the offense--ugh.

by DenverBears on May 25, 2006 3:20 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

The team

I think the Rockies can keep this up. The thing about teams where it seems everybody on the team is hitting well is that it's usually a result of good chemistry. The guys on the team pick each other up, and it leads to better play all around. The Braves announcers last week actually noted that a lot of people have been saying that the Rockies have very good chemistry; one said, "anybody who says that chemistry doesn't matter has never been on a team with bad chemistry."

Holliday, as has been said, is a guy whose production has never really matched his potential. Sometimes a guy with great tools will have rather average stats in the minors, but with room for improvement. Holliday has a ton of raw power and it seems that he's finally beginning to harness it this season. As for Sullivan, this was the player I expected him to be... lots of doubles and triples. Don't forget that Sullivan added 20 pounds in the offseason and that could have something to do with his spike in power.

by Rox Fan in TN on May 10, 2006 9:26 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

The only thing holding Sullivan back

from being a potential mainstay in Colorado for several years is his plate discipline. As it stands now, he is a good stopgap between the rebuilding era and the Fowler/big ticket FA/early 2006-2007 draft pick era. He profiles better as a fourth outfielder because of his good glove, solid hit rate, and speed, but with only ten walks and a whopping thirty-one strikeouts, he is still showing signs of being overmatched on a consistent basis. Part of me thinks the coaching staff holds back his patience because of certain philosophies, but if that isn't the case, Sully has some work to do to be an everyday player long term. As of now, his .352 OBP is solid, but unspectacular. Raise it to .370 without a batting average spike and we'll talk, but as of now, he is solid, and an asset to this team, but he isn't irreplaceable down the road.

The nice thing is that patience can be cultivated and show up in box scores rather quickly (for proof, see Lastings Milledge's rapid change from last season to this year in the minors). Because Fowler is likely three years away, and Stubbs looks unlikely to be our pick (I'm still high on him, but do see the rationale behind Longoria and Miller, and for the record, I prefer first round position players, especially with a draft loaded with solid but unspectacular pitching through the second round) Sullivan has plenty of time to put it together. After all the grief I gave him last year, I'm rooting for him to make this happen. He is the exact type of centerfielder needed to cover the expanse that is Coors Field.

by David "ohno" on May 10, 2006 9:45 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regarding Stubbs

I'm an advocate of the BPA (Best Player Available) strategy when it comes to drafting. And it's especially true in the case of Miller... the Rockies' system is short on pitching, and most of the pitchers in the system are high-risk guys (Jimenez, Morillo, Lindsay, etc.) We're especially short on lefties, with Morales and Cedeno being the only ones I can think of off the top of my head who might be more than roster filler. Now Miller might not have the ceiling of some other guys, but it's kind of a safe pick, and one who should move through the system quickly.

I don't think we'll be drafting high enough to get David Price in 2007, anyway. Maybe I can try to be his agent and steer him to the Rockies...

by Rox Fan in TN on May 11, 2006 2:30 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

My argument to you

is that perhaps Miller is not the best player available. While his statistics and repitoire may be impressive, he has had bouts with control and some scouts feel he may lack the quality off-speed pitch necessary to stick in a rotation. Signability my also be a concern, and with Colorado's history with contractual squables and draft picks, it could be too great a risk. Factor in the high bust factor and attrition rate of young pitchers... I still have concerns.

As for Stubbs, he is just a personal favorite, and at pick two, I would consider Evan Longoria to be the best player available. To slug well over .600 in an extreme pitchers park is pretty impressive. And with his cut down in strike outs, increase in walks, and that pure, quick swing, he would likely move quickly and could join the gang in Double A in short time. I also think Longoria is the safest pick in the daft, and he could be a superstar in Colorado at second base.

We've been so good at nabbing top quality bats lately, and with the interest they've shown in Longoria, I'd like to see it happen.

As for pitching, there are several quality players rated in the low-mid thirties on Brewerfan.net that would be solid selections and profiled as first round picks at one time or another. Dallas Duck and HSer Shawn Tolleson are considered the top sinkerballers in that range, and as we've seen this season, the sinker has had the greatest success, and these two players profile as more than just groundball specialists. Also in that range is McCulloch, who has the polish and top off-speed pitch to work quickly through the majors, and profiles as a solid number 3 or 4, I'd consider him a safe pick, for a pitcher, of course.

All in all, it's an interesting debate, and I don't think any of us will throw a major fit regarding who we pick, since we practically have the pick of the litter, and Schmidt hasn't let us down recently.

by David "ohno" on May 11, 2006 10:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

well....

if he could get his OBP up to .370 with a batting average hike, I wouldn't see anything wrong with that. As things stand, if he can keep up what he has been doing (I'm not entirely convinced, but my hunch is he will), he is a solid CF--good enough to stick around as a starter for several years--if not longer.

by DenverBears on May 11, 2006 7:23 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

other predictions...

Rockies are on pace for 92 wins, who thinks they will get there? My guess is 83 wins, which might be enough to win the division.

Anyone else want to stick their neck out and make a prediction?

by DenverBears on May 11, 2006 7:18 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Definitely not ninety-two

But I see us a bit over the eighty-three mark you suggested as that would mean we're going a game under .500 for the rest of the year. This fast start should bump us closer to eighty-six or eighty-seven wins. Being a pragmatic optimist, I'll take the latter. Eighty-seven and we come in second in the improved NL West and several games back in the wild-card chase.

by Rox Girl on May 11, 2006 8:02 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs