Draft Day thread #1

by Rox Girl on Jun 6, 2006 5:35 AM MDT in Rockpile

MiLB's Mayo thinks Hochevar will be the Royals pick. This of course means that Andrew Miller will be available when the Rockies select with the second overall pick. Do we take him? Or do we go to Longoria anyway? And what about Brad Lincoln?

No, not at all. Mayo and Jim Callis and a slew of other people say the Rox will pick Stanford's Greg Reynolds and as someone who can remember how much hype surrounded Jason Young when he was drafted, I'm sketchy about pitchers coming from the Farm. The Rocky Mountain News' Ringolsby confirms that it's between Longoria and Reynolds, with the Rockies feeling the latter can "develop quickly" into a middle of the rotation starter. Which is about as underwhelming as a number two pick could be, even with a down year for the draft. Of course, Bill Schmidt was around for the Jason Young thing which you'd think he of all people would know better, but he's picked so well since then, I'll probably warm up to whomever we pick anyway. Reynolds will be good. If we picked more toward our usual spot(7-12) I would be excited for the selection. Here at number two, I think I was hoping for something more when there was not much more there to begin with.

Is Greg Reynolds the pick?

Here's his scouting report at brewerfan.net And here's another link to some video from Calleaguers.com (more here).

By the way, a little known but very good blogger out there in the MLB blogosphere, d.a. humber -who covers mostly the Blue Jays asked a bunch of other MLB bloggers their thoughts on the upcoming draft in regards to their teams. The answers are very infomative, so be sure to check it out.

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d.a. humber

Well, very informative except when it comes to the Rockies blogger. What was that girl thinking? Greg Reynolds' name isn't even listed as a possibility.

by Rox Girl on Jun 6, 2006 6:04 AM MDT reply actions

Feeling better about Reynolds already

Like Aaron Cook, he's a guy who's stuff doesn't jive with the less overwhelming numbers he's put up. Mid nineties heat, and he's already got four pitches (four seam and two seam fastball, a curve and a change) to Miller's two and Lincoln's three. Of course the downside is that none of those four pitches is a truly dominant "out" pitch. Can any of them become such? That's a trickier question. The four seamer is his best pitch, but his curve shows promise for being something that if he can control it can be a "gotcha" kind of pitch. The two seamer needs some work before it's ready, but will be a handy pitch at Coors because of its sinking action. I haven't ever seen him use the change effectively myself, but I've heard he's got a good feel of when to toss it.

Everybody raves about his intelligence. This can't be a bad thing, particularly when he's got the goods to do something with his smarts.

by Rox Girl on Jun 6, 2006 6:43 AM MDT reply actions

I don't believe it

I simply cannot beleive that the Rockies will pick Reynolds at 2. I guess I could be wrong, but I just don't see it.

by DenverBears on Jun 6, 2006 6:56 AM MDT reply actions

The Post too,

Everybody except for MLB.com is saying it's down to Reynolds or Longoria. The force and timing of this info is too strong to downplay, I think it's going to happen.

by Rox Girl on Jun 6, 2006 7:06 AM MDT reply actions

maybe I'm just in denial...

If this is the case and the Rockies sign Reynolds, I just hope they know what they are doing. I don't think anyone else has Reynolds nearly as high on their boards.

by DenverBears on Jun 6, 2006 7:25 AM MDT up reply actions

well.....close at least

Most had Reynolds in their top 5 or 6 prospects in the draft. So this doesn't make it a "huge" reach.....however, he certainly wasn't one of the Top 3 prospects.

I feel sick the more I talk about this......must log off and actually work for a few hours before I get worked up about this. I'll talk to everyone in a few hours.....

by sg8335aa on Jun 6, 2006 7:34 AM MDT up reply actions

well....

5 or 6 may even be a bit high. A survey of the net, BA had him at 7, Brewerfan at 12, TSN.CA had him at 5, Fox Sports at 10, Nonstop sports at 5--all of them have him behind Miller, Lincoln, Lincecum and Longoria. Like I said, I hope the Rockies know what they are doing. If Miller, Lincoln or Longoria end up doing much better than Reynolds, then the Rockies will look foolish.

by DenverBears on Jun 6, 2006 8:08 AM MDT up reply actions

If Miller slides to the D-backs @ 11....

I'm gonna shoot somebody......

Honestly......If the Rockies can justify passing Miller on more than just Financial reasons, then I can buy into it. However, if Miller becomes another in a line of D-backs steals because they're willing to spend the money.....I'm gonna be angry.

by sg8335aa on Jun 6, 2006 7:15 AM MDT reply actions

I was thinking that same exact thing

By the way, Mayo's updated his board and says we have a pre-draft deal with Reynolds already in place.

by Rox Girl on Jun 6, 2006 7:17 AM MDT up reply actions

not quite....

Mayo said there was "late word of a pre-draft deal".....notice it was updated at 3:42 AM and not since....

I dunno.....who knows, is it too much to hope the Rockies are taking the NFL model and putting out some big smoke screens to screw with the rest of the teams in the 1st round? Baseball has never really done this......but one can still hope right? Ok...Ok....I'm grasping

If Reynolds develops into a solid starting #3 type starter.....out of a terrible draft.....then I guess we really can't complain......I guess I just hoped for more. Maybe we'll get lucky in the 2nd and 3rd round with some guys dropping.......

Here's to hoping he's not another Jason Young!

by sg8335aa on Jun 6, 2006 7:25 AM MDT up reply actions

More than smoke...

This is more like loud explosions and pyrotechnics. If it's fakery, it's a dazzling display of fakery, that's for sure.

by Rox Girl on Jun 6, 2006 7:37 AM MDT up reply actions

Pre-Draft Deal

Ok...there's a lot of talk about a pre-draft deal coming between the Rockies and Reynolds.

However, since Reynolds is still in the College World Series, isn't that impossible?

Based on Rockies history....it would make sense. Rockies hate hold-outs and always have wanted their 1st round picks to start right away.

I dunno....if Miller is passed based on financial reasons, and the Rockies got a deal on a pre-draft deal with Reynolds, then the only way they "make this up" is by going big the rest of the draft. No "Senior College Players" that notoriously sign cheap.....take HS players and other guys that might drop due to signability and invest the money later in the draft. Go big the rest of the draft.

I'm starting to get frustrated.....

by sg8335aa on Jun 6, 2006 7:20 AM MDT reply actions

I tend to agree, you should save on one end to

spend on the other when it comes to drafting, at least that's my philosophy, and in a draft like this with no sure bets in the first round -not even Miller- it makes sense to take a safe cheap route like Reynolds and then speculate in the next couple of picks.

Here's a link to video of Reynolds from Calleaguers.com.

by Rox Girl on Jun 6, 2006 7:29 AM MDT up reply actions

I'm thinking it could be done

The fact that Reynolds is still in the CWS doesn't prevent the Rocks from ensuring he will sign when he is done. They could have the good old "agreement in principal" in place now, and sign him for real as soon as his team is eliminated. Here's hoping for Longoria.

by Prospector on Jun 6, 2006 7:29 AM MDT up reply actions

Bill Schmidts first draft was 2000

Which means he was the one who took Matt Harrington and Jason Young.

by Prospector on Jun 6, 2006 7:31 AM MDT reply actions

doh!

Maybe he's trying to exorcise the spector. He just got here then, though, right?

by Rox Girl on Jun 6, 2006 7:32 AM MDT up reply actions

sorry about the factual error, by the way,

I'm correcting it right now.

by Rox Girl on Jun 6, 2006 7:34 AM MDT up reply actions

No worries.

We all forgive you I'm sure.

by Prospector on Jun 6, 2006 7:40 AM MDT up reply actions

Just when I didn't want Miller

the Rockies made a play for Lincoln, forcing me to like Andrew more, now with this foolish Reynolds talk, I'd kill for Lincoln.

This may be the most upsetting news of the day, and looks like the traditional MLB draft cop out. What about Reynolds is so much better than second rounder Hughes from LBSU? Besides, Stanford pitchers are notoriously bad prospects, as stated in a chat done by I believe BA last month.

I really think we can procure a top middle of the rotation pitching prospect in the second round, if that is what we so desperately desire.

I'm really not thrilled by this news to say the very least. The only way to recover from such news would be to draft a big time faller in round two (Antonelli?) or the toolsy HSer Place, should he not take a pre-draft first round deal.

Reynolds numbers aren't even that impressive. A 3.00+ ERA is what bumped guys like Hughes and Kennedy out of the first round, but bumps Greg into it? He doesn't strikeout one batter an inning as you'd like to see from a first round pitcher, especially one taken second in the draft. At 6'7 225, there is little projection left, so what you see is what you get. Finally, for all the talk about him moving quickly, he's already thrown 120 innings with the Super's and possibly the CWS still waiting. We really can't expect much from Reynolds this season, so he will be much further behind in starting his MLB career than a Longoria, or even a Hochevar, Lincoln, or Lincecum. Do we need to even get into the mediocre breaking stuff?

Please Rockies, step back from the ledge, don't be so cheap, and if you want a pitcher, take one with legit projection and stuff, not one you think will arrive shortly with little ceiling...

by David "ohno" on Jun 6, 2006 8:31 AM MDT reply actions

I don't agree with several things here,

Mind you I'm not completely sold on Reynolds yet either, but none of the other pitchers you mention will get to the majors before Reynolds unless Hochevar shakes off some serious rust from his downtime regardless of the amount of innings pitched. The Rox could almost move Reynolds straight to Modesto, although Asheville may be more likely, whereas Lincecum and Lincoln would need to start at Tri-City. Second, I've been reading over opinions at BA and other places and I have yet to see one say that Reynolds doesn't have top-line stuff. Instead, the opinions are all based on his stats in college, which I think could be skewing people's opinions away from what he actually brings.

He has increased his velocity while at Stanford, he's developed a fourth pitch, he's improved his curve a bit (like you imply, it could be quite a bit better) and he's had some games as dominant as any of the other people you mention. This season, he's started to add consistency to that mix. I think given that no-one slated to go in this first round is guaranteed of being a frontline starter, that you have to take these odds the pundits give with a grain of salt. Reynolds' stuff and build is solid. He has more pitches than any of these others and he's smart enough to use them wisely and not try to overthrow all the time. He's less of an injury risk because his mechanics are sound. He doesn't throw straight over the top.

Of course the main point and one I agree with remains, he's not the caliber we'd want from a #2 overall draft choice, but this year, I'm not 100% certain anybody really is. The closest I still say is Miller, but saying Reynolds is a bust already just because he's from Stanford, or hasn't used his stuff the way he should is way too premature.

By the way, I agree somewhat with the Jered Hughes comp, but I'm pretty high on him too, a Reynolds/Hughes first/second round selection wouldn't be bad in my book.

by Rox Girl on Jun 6, 2006 8:57 AM MDT up reply actions

I can't disagree with you much

I'm just typing out of frustration...

Eventually I'll warm up to Reynolds, and I will stand by any Schmidt pick, but he wasn't exactly my first, second, third, fourth, fifth...choice.

by David "ohno" on Jun 6, 2006 9:08 AM MDT up reply actions

Oh, and for the record

I don't think Reynolds will be a bust. If the Rockies see him as a middle of the rotation type, I don't see why he can't achieve that. I just prefer to set my sights higher.

by David "ohno" on Jun 6, 2006 9:18 AM MDT up reply actions