NLCS Game #4 Simulation

by Xeifrank on Oct 15, 2007 12:03 PM MDT

Well, here you are, one game away from a trip to the World Series. There's still some business to take care of first, a 4th victory over the Diamondbacks.

The simulator was giving more love to the Rockies in the first two games, especially in Game #2 when the simulator gave the Rockies a 57.5% chance of winning and Vegas a 48.78%. In Game #3, we finally saw Vegas and the betting public come to their senses and now in Game #4 they seem to be overdosing on the Rockie kool-aid a bit. In Game #4 the following win probabilities have been posted.

LV Hilton Sports Book: Rockies 62.69%
Xeifrank's Simulator: Rockies 52.60%

Vegas is expecting a blow-out, perhaps they are expecting the DBacks to rollover and play dead, down 3 games to nil. Or perhaps Vegas is just expecting a flood of money to come in on the Rockies and are moving the spread way up to even out the bets?? The simulator is still expecting a close game, probably within a run or two given the 52.6% win probability.

vr, Xei

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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Evening out bets

I would wager that LV is setting the odds based on the money, not on the expectation of victory, though I can't claim to be an expert on sports books and odds making.

by MADness on Oct 15, 2007 4:32 PM MDT reply actions

Re: evening out bets

Yes, you are correct. The goal of the Sports Book is to split the money that is bet evenly on both sides of the point spread. That being said, the betting line in major sports like football and baseball are a very efficient market and typically do a wonderful job with win probabilities compared to what the average bettor could do. Remember that there are plenty of professional gamblers out there, who study this stuff very carefully and could easily exploit any large inefficiencies in the the odds. In bet types that have a fairly low house edge, and alot of money at play, the house has to be very careful at setting their odds (and also moving them around). That's why I am wondering about tonights game. Thanks for the thoughtful post.
vr, Xei

2007 NL West Predictions: 1. Padres, 2. Dodgers, 3. DBacks, 4. Giants, 5. Rockies

by Xeifrank on Oct 15, 2007 4:48 PM MDT up reply actions

Congrats!

Vegas put more weight on the Rockies win, so they get the nod. The simulator gets the slight nod in the other game tonight. See you in about 8 days with a game one world series sim.
vr, Xei

2007 NL West Predictions: 1. Padres, 2. Dodgers, 3. DBacks, 4. Giants, 5. Rockies

by Xeifrank on Oct 16, 2007 12:10 AM MDT reply actions

Your sig

I sure like your sig a lot more now than I did when you first made your predictions.

I wasn't offended by the prediction (everyone else shared it) but now it seems more like a badge of honor than a slight or an insult.

by MADness on Oct 16, 2007 1:02 AM MDT up reply actions

badge of honor

Ok, thanks. I'm a friendly visitor. Those were my pre-season predictions, and probably very similiar to many others with the Giants and Rockies at the bottom of the division. I mean who knew that Tulowitzki would be this good this fast, the starting rotation this solid with the addition of Jimenez and Morales, and the bullpen this improved. The Rockies bullpen use to be a big joke outside of Fuentes. Not any more. Good luck in the W.S. Will be quietly rooting for the NL West to win it all. :)
vr, Xei

2007 NL West Predictions: 1. Padres, 2. Dodgers, 3. DBacks, 4. Giants, 5. Rockies

by Xeifrank on Oct 16, 2007 1:06 AM MDT up reply actions