ALCS Game #3: Matsuzaka vs Westbrook

by Rox Girl on Oct 15, 2007 4:54 PM MDT in Rockpile

Who's watching this stuff? Some seriously sloppy baseball was played Saturday night in Boston, as Cleveland wound up romping in the eleventh inning. I don't know if either of these teams bullpens or defense match up to the Rockies right now, and tonight we see the soft underbelly of their rotations fight it out. Some would have us think Byrd vs Daisuke is supposed to be that much better than Livan vs Fogg was, but really, I don't see that much of a difference.

I know this will be fodder for our current opposition, but we might as well start scouting our next opponent now.

[editor's note, by Rox Girl]- See how boring this is? I can't even get the starters straight. Former Rockies farmhand Jake Westbrook starts for Cleveland.

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Chickens::Hatch::Counting::3-0

hmmmm...
vr, Xei

2007 NL West Predictions: 1. Padres, 2. Dodgers, 3. DBacks, 4. Giants, 5. Rockies

by Xeifrank on Oct 15, 2007 5:00 PM MDT reply actions

Only one more, I'm just playing the probabilities.

The odds of Arizona coming back are pretty low at this point.

by Rox Girl on Oct 15, 2007 5:05 PM MDT up reply actions

hard time

... just giving you a hard time. I've run some preliminary numbers on a possible Rockies vs Cle/Bos World Series. These are not final numbers but I have...

(Favorite :: Win Probability)
Francis AT Sabathia (Cle 53.2%)
Jimenez AT Carmona (Cle 51.4%)
--------------------------------
Francis AT Beckett (Bos 50.9%)
Jimenez AT Schilling (Col 51.6%)

Looks like a great World Series!
vr, Xei

2007 NL West Predictions: 1. Padres, 2. Dodgers, 3. DBacks, 4. Giants, 5. Rockies

by Xeifrank on Oct 15, 2007 5:18 PM MDT up reply actions

compared to what?

Are the odds of them winning 4 in a row greater than or less than the odds of us winning 6 in a row (playoff games), or 14 of 15 (regular season games)? Well, I mean, the odds of us winning those are now at 100%, since we did it, but just remember, a cornered snake is a dangerous thing, and the best thing to do is to BASH IT IN THE HEAD WITH A ROCK four times before it can bite you four times.

Not that it's even possible to jinx the Rockies at this point, who have proven irrefutably that there's no such thing as jinxes.

GO ROCKIES!!!!! WIN THIS IN FOUR!!! And let the Indians/Red Sox go 7 so the world doesn't completely forget about the baseball playoffs...

by jakester @ Purple Row on Oct 15, 2007 5:34 PM MDT up reply actions

They just might take seven

Despite zero runs, it's been a rough start so far by Westbrook. He's allowing a lot of baserunners tonight, and was saved in the first by the Big Papi shift and in the second by the weakness of the bottom of Boston's lineup. I don't think people will give us our due, even if we beat the AL in the World Series, but these squads have a lot of vulnerable parts.

by Rox Girl on Oct 15, 2007 5:41 PM MDT up reply actions

Weak

Apt way to describe Boston's order after the 6 hole. Us with a DH has always been a curious thought in my mind, and now we get to see the full potential of this lineup. They're not gonna know what hit 'em.

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Oct 15, 2007 5:44 PM MDT up reply actions

Our lineup with a DH

could very well have the NLCS MVP hitting 9th. Just thought I'd point that out.

Every day is a Holliday!

by free7694 on Oct 15, 2007 5:54 PM MDT up reply actions

ARRGGHHH!

I don't want to get too excited, or look past any game, but if and when we win our fourth game of this series, I will be totally curious to know what the Game 1 and Game 2 lineups of the World Series would be.

by jakester @ Purple Row on Oct 15, 2007 5:56 PM MDT up reply actions

Us with a DH

I'd guess we'd use either Smith or Spilly as a DH. There's really no obvious player in the regular lineup who we should DH. Atkins' defense isn't great, but using him as a DH means starting Jamey Carroll, which I don't really want to do. And anyway, for guys used to playing every day, putting them in as a DH can mess with their head. Better to use a pinch hitter as the DH when we have to.

The Coors Effect... thinking about changing the name to The Humidor Effect.

by Rox Fan in TN on Oct 15, 2007 6:00 PM MDT up reply actions

Go Indians!

The way the Sox got Matsuzaka was such a vintage Yankees move, I always cheer for it to backfire on them.

Friendly visiting D-backs fan from Out in the Desert

by Devin on Oct 15, 2007 5:18 PM MDT reply actions

Wow, the BoSox coughed up a big chance

Bases loaded nobody out, and a shallow flyout and a DP ensure Westbrook gets out of it intact.

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; available at fair price for your Tulo-less ballclubs.

by Silverblood on Oct 15, 2007 5:38 PM MDT reply actions

Kenny Lofton?! 2-run homer?!

2-0 Tribe.

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; available at fair price for your Tulo-less ballclubs.

by Silverblood on Oct 15, 2007 5:48 PM MDT up reply actions

You sure that wasn't just a double?

Oh wait, that's only a double if Garrett hits it that far. Cleveland's got to be loving Lofton right now.

by Rox Girl on Oct 15, 2007 5:50 PM MDT up reply actions

Kenny Lofton???

How much did they pay for Dice-K again?

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Oct 15, 2007 5:47 PM MDT reply actions

Rockies::DH

would Spillborg be the Rockies DH in most cases? Or would there be some kind of RH/LH DH split?
vr, Xei

2007 NL West Predictions: 1. Padres, 2. Dodgers, 3. DBacks, 4. Giants, 5. Rockies

by Xeifrank on Oct 15, 2007 5:50 PM MDT reply actions

Spilborghs & Sullivan

would probably platoon, depending on what Hurdle's gut is feeling on any given day. Spilly's got more power.

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; available at fair price for your Tulo-less ballclubs.

by Silverblood on Oct 15, 2007 5:51 PM MDT up reply actions

Hurdle's gut

should be excised after this season and put into the Hall of Fame, regardless of what happens from here on out. Where does one go for a gutectomy, anyway?

by jakester @ Purple Row on Oct 15, 2007 5:57 PM MDT up reply actions

what about Holliday?

Just out of curiosity, is Holliday a better bet in LF than Spilborghs? (Note: I am a newbie to this team, so be nice!) My pop says Holliday's defense has improved significantly, but perhaps he's a decent option at DH??

by jakester @ Purple Row on Oct 15, 2007 6:01 PM MDT up reply actions

Holliday ranks among

the best defensive LFers in baseball. He's improved drasticallly, and yes, he's a better option, both fielding-wise and certainly hitting-wise. Forgot about Smith; I wouldn't mind seeing him handle some of the DHing.

Now we just have to win tonight so we can really get down to the nitty-gritty...

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; available at fair price for your Tulo-less ballclubs.

by Silverblood on Oct 15, 2007 6:03 PM MDT up reply actions

I think Clint forgot about Smith, too

Any idea why he went to Spilborghs against Nippert last night instead of a lefty?

by jakester @ Purple Row on Oct 15, 2007 6:09 PM MDT up reply actions

confidence in bat speed

Nippert throws 98 mph, Clint's seen Spilly catch up to balls that fast before, but I think he's still a bit unsure that Smith can do it on a regular basis. Seth can, I think Clint'll get to see him show it more often in the WS.

by Rox Girl on Oct 15, 2007 6:12 PM MDT up reply actions

Atkins is a better choice to DH

So is Hawpe, both are negative defenders according to most stat tables I've seen. I think it would be the right call to DH Brad, but I doubt Hurdle will do it for fear of hurting his ego. It could be an interesting call if we decide to bring up Ian Stewart for the World Series strictly for defensive purposes and moving Atkins to the DH. That would be the most daring, high risk/high reward move, so I doubt it would come to pass, though.

by Rox Girl on Oct 15, 2007 6:06 PM MDT up reply actions

Despite all

our quibbles, the D has been very solid during this series and I really don't want to mess with anyone's head by taking them off the field and putting them into a hitting-only role. I'd still support Spilly or Smith taking this job.

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; available at fair price for your Tulo-less ballclubs.

by Silverblood on Oct 15, 2007 6:07 PM MDT up reply actions

Also, in this article

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_7185576

we see that Dessens and Stewart are definitely out for the World Series, Cook and (DEAR GOD NO) Julio remain possible, and Hirsh is borderline.

Two interesting pieces of news re: the lineups: a) no Tony Clark, Jackson instead, and b) our old friend Jeff Cirillo.

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; available at fair price for your Tulo-less ballclubs.

by Silverblood on Oct 15, 2007 6:20 PM MDT up reply actions

Although

it does think it is "RHP Franklin Morales."

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; available at fair price for your Tulo-less ballclubs.

by Silverblood on Oct 15, 2007 6:31 PM MDT up reply actions

DH rules?

Can a DH be switched into playing in the field during the game? My guess is no (I don't remember ever seeing it).

Anyways, a Spilly/Smith platoon sounds good. IF for some reason Spilly can't DH then Baker might be an option.

by MADness on Oct 15, 2007 6:54 PM MDT up reply actions

I'm guessing Spilborghs gets it most of the time

Although maybe Clint would put Sullivan or Smith in against a particularly nasty right hander like Beckett. Spilly made okay contact against him, but still went zero for three. Against Schilling he was even worse, zero for five with three K's. Now that I think about it, maybe we will go witha straight LH/RH platoon, Sullivan and Smith both hit very well vs RHP's.

by Rox Girl on Oct 15, 2007 5:59 PM MDT up reply actions

then there's the other side

Cleveland's less scary with Hafner unable to DH and with Garko sitting out games in the NL park. Although both would seem to be defensive liabilities (Garko 14 E's in 170 career games, Hafner 7 E's in 72 career games - FYI, realizing that Hafner has played defense in only 72 career games ... what a sham!).

Similarly, the Red Sox this year had to take out one of the following three: Youkilis, Lowell, or Ortiz. That's gonna hurt them. Also, Ortiz has committed 11 errors in his last 106 games at 1st.

For the record, over 298 games in the past two years, Helton has 6 errors.

But first things first - GO MORALES! GO OFFENSE!!!

by jakester @ Purple Row on Oct 15, 2007 6:32 PM MDT up reply actions

Great news

Samuel Adams Winter Lager is back!

The Coors Effect... thinking about changing the name to The Humidor Effect.

by Rox Fan in TN on Oct 15, 2007 6:05 PM MDT reply actions

Might have to try it...

Big fan of the Oktoberfest, so it's worth a shot. Sam Adams brews a nice beer, but I'm still a Killian's man thru and thru.

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Oct 15, 2007 6:24 PM MDT up reply actions

It's really good

Probably the best of the seasonal beers. Of course, if we play Boston in the World Series, I'm switching to Coors for a week.

The Coors Effect... thinking about changing the name to The Humidor Effect.

by Rox Fan in TN on Oct 15, 2007 7:38 PM MDT up reply actions

Not something you see that much

Both Ortiz and Ramirez GIDP tonight.

Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; available at fair price for your Tulo-less ballclubs.

by Silverblood on Oct 15, 2007 7:22 PM MDT reply actions

No, it's not...

Westbrook's got a good sinker, and they are definitely susceptible to that. Aaron Cook allowed a pair of hits to Big Papi in his start against the Sox, but both were groundballs on the right side that would have been gobbled up if the Rockies employed the same sort of shift that AL teams like Cleveland do.

by Rox Girl on Oct 15, 2007 7:29 PM MDT up reply actions

Considering CC with that bad of a Batter

I wouldn't be surprised if he does some damage. Maybe Carmona can come up with Chad Ogea-like hitting in the World Series. Sure the team-I-refuse-to-name had a .500 record against the likes of the Nats, but home field advantage belongs to the AL team. That means three games the way they normally play. And the thin air might make CC into a Hampton or Ortiz.

The Red Sox do look less dangerous without Ortiz, but Beckett can bat and those Asian players are not as bad as some of the American pitchers I've seen.

Damn Varitek. Oh well Boston still hates the submarine action.

You think you hate Jose Mesa. Nothing beats the 1997 meltdown.

by kova on Oct 15, 2007 7:38 PM MDT reply actions

The Red Sox pen goes two deep

Okajima and Papelbon. Everybody else represents trouble for Boston, so they have to hope their starters can get through seven. With a patient team like Colorado, that'll be a big issue for pitchers not named Beckett or Wakefield. Cleveland's got to hope Perez's Game 2 meltdown was an aberration, but with him, Betancourt and Jensen, they actually seem kind of tricky. I think after a season of not swinging the bat, it's probably too much to expect any of these starters to do much at the National League park, but I wouldn't be surprised if C.C. or Fausto lifted a double over the outfield Doug Davis style.

by Rox Girl on Oct 15, 2007 8:22 PM MDT up reply actions