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Around SBN: Steve McNair Found Shot to Death


Saturday Morning Rockpile:

Ah... PTBNL... how I've longed for your return to our transaction sheets. How I love grasping at the incalculable mystery of who you might be, waiting and anticipating that final anticlimactic moment when your true identity is revealed...

"That was it?" I will say, and you will smile smugly and say,
"Yes."

Alright. So what we know almost for sure about our mystery man is this:

He's not Sean Smith.

Which I'm guessing means he's not Adam Miller, Aaron Laffey or Chuck Lofgren either. I'm thinking Cleveland gave a list of prospects that Colorado couldn't touch with those names on it and then added Smith's name in crayon after it started to get out that we were thinking of taking him. I'm going to try and be realistic with this, while I'd love it if Trevor Crowe or Jordan Brown is announced as the PTBNL, we all know that's not going to happen, so I'm going to try and limit our look to some of the down ballot guys who are also relatively close to the majors, meaning that they played in 2007 at High A Kinston or above. We're still left with some intriguing possibilities, there are a few that I like, but realize that I've been pretty bad at guessing things like this lately (see Rule 5 results):

David Huff, lhp If we're not getting Smith, it seems likely Huff's off limits as well, since he's essentially the same pitcher in terms of stuff with the added bonus of being left handed. He had a good showing in the Arizona Fall League, meriting the bottom rung of Baseball America's Top 20 prospects list for that league. His college career kind of mirrored Garrett Atkins' in that he went from UCI to UCLA, but Huff added a stop at Cypress JC in between. He might be in play because he's got somewhat of an injury history, Cleveland's well stocked with pitchers (including LHP's like Lofgren) and just because I naively wish it to be the case. I'm going to put this one in as my semi-realistic pipe dream.

While  we're on lefties, let's throw Ryan Edell's name as probably out of the realm of possibilities as well, but rest assured I wouldn't mind getting him, either.

Kevin Dixon, rhp He's only been pitching full time since being drafted in 2005, as he played first base/DH in college (Minnesota State-Mankato where he was a teammate of current Rockies relief prospect, Andrew Kreidermacher) but Dixon has put up some pretty decent numbers in his minor league career thus far, including a pretty impressive GB%. He had a low nineties fastball coming out of college, but I haven't heard if he still gets that much, and a decent slider and change combo to complement it. At any rate, he's probably going to be overlooked but his pitch to contact, keep the ball down approach seems to fit our philosophy well.

Josh Rodriguez, ss This would be replacing one current utility infielder with a future utility infielder. Carroll had an advantage on defense as Josh isn't going to stick at short in the majors, but Rodriguez showed more pop in his bat this year than Carroll ever has. While his overall D could be better, he's got a great arm, and could backup third, short or second in a couple of years. He's got decent patience, and could be almost as good a baserunner as Carroll is, although I think he might be too far away from contributing to be who we wind up getting.

-------------

I'm working on a longer post about Todd Helton's value that will take some of this article into account, but Dave Studeman takes an interesting look at long term contracts and why it might not be good to give them to relievers. LaTroy Hawkins and/or Shawn Chacon might be getting some of Jamey Carroll's left over  money, but thankfully our team has it right when it wants to go year by year with them. This path might prove a little more expensive than picking up Hawk's 2008 option when we had the chance, but I can't fault the team for the approach it took here.

The real question this brings up is in the whispers of a possible Brian Fuentes extension, which would almost have to be long term. I've got to say that right now, unless we get a better offer than Aaron Heilman by the trade deadline, that I'm in favor of keeping Brian through 2008, offering him arbitration for 2009 and picking up the two high draft picks when he signs with another club.

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So...
Probably not Grady Sizemore either, then?

by Since1993 on Dec 8, 2007 1:26 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Darn
I could have just sworn that we were going to get Sizemore or Carmona for Carroll... (don't tell them that he's not Tulo, who they thought they were getting...)
Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; available at fair price for your Tulo-less ballclubs.

by Silverblood on Dec 8, 2007 1:34 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Carrol, Tulo....
PRACTICALLY the same name ;)
"I want to live forever or die trying" Yossarian in "Catch-22"

by Dieb on Dec 8, 2007 2:57 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's not our fault
if Shapiro didn't read closely enough, right?
Get Demented. Mother of the Baby Tulos; available at fair price for your Tulo-less ballclubs.

by Silverblood on Dec 8, 2007 3:05 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No chance it's Huff or Rodriguez.
There's no room for Josh Rodriguez in the system and Huff is too good a prospect for the likes of Carroll.
It could be Dixon, but I'm guessing the PTBNL will be a mid-level pitcher or maybe a catcher at the Double-A/High-A levels.

Other possibilities:
LHSP Shawn Nottingham
RHRP Mike Finocchi (3.40 GO/AO in 07, 3.72 GO/AO in 06)
RHRP Randy Newsom (Chad Bradford-type--- had a 3.05 GO/AO in 07 and a 4.11 GO/AO in 06.)
RHRP T.J. Burton
C/1B/3B Chris Gimenez

I'm hoping for Newsom, Finocchi or Gimenez.

by malakian on Dec 8, 2007 3:42 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Silly Goose
It's C.C. Sabathia!
I miss baseball. Is Hurdle still a terrible manager now?

by Redhawk on Dec 8, 2007 4:15 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The PTBNL could be a rookie league / SS player..
..if the deadline is in-season.

"Shapiro was vague about when he must turn a player over to the Rockies, saying only that it was some time during the season." - Akron Beacon Journal

http://www.ohio.com/sports/indians/12280851.html

by malakian on Dec 8, 2007 6:31 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PTBNL
How about the guy they designated to make room for Carroll, J.D. Martin?  He has been troubled by arm problems of late, but if he is healthy (and he was worth keeping on the 40 man roster for the Rule 5 draft), he has a high upside in terms of pitching potential.  He pitched for a small, remote school around LA, but when he was pitching, all the scouts flocked to little known Burroughs Ridgecrest.  His arm may be suspect, but a worthwhile gamble with a high upside if his problems were resolved with surgery.  Last year was his rehab year I do believe and he may not be a bad pick up.

by lahardball on Dec 8, 2007 7:10 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PTBNL
Just stopping by from LGT.  I have to say I'm fairly impressed by your discussion on our minor leaguers.  There was comment over on our board Rox Girl might know more about our guys than a bunch of our regular posters - and we have a fairly active and informed lot over there.  

It's interesting to see your take on our system since we've been having a discussion about the value of our prospects.  There's a bit of a ground swell to make a major move for either a front line SP or, more popularly, for a power hitting LF.  Even if he's just a UI, I find it intriguing that you place such little value on a guy who's a year away from hitting .300 as pretty much an every day 2B.  

It'll be interesting who you guys get out of Shapiro.  I'm sure you know this, but trading with him isn't like trading with the Mariners or the Mets.  

Oh, and a belated congrats on a great season.

Just dropping by from Let's Go Tribe!

by mjmarble on Dec 9, 2007 2:12 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A chunk of why I devalue Carroll here
doesn't have so much to do with his skills, as with some of the other circumstances of the trade, such as the Indians taking his salary (which is above what he'd likely get, even in this market) and that the Rockies will get cheap control of the player they get back for a longer duration. I think given that the Rockies are looking for more advanced players -pitchers particularly- also limits the possibilities, as I'd expect a higher potential upside were we to trade for a lower level and riskier prospect. And like you say, Shapiro isn't going to make a Tim Purpura style blunder and make a move Indians fans regret at first blush. I'm hoping our scouts were able to identify some hidden gems in your system in that list Shapiro's looking over, but I'm not expecting the return to be an eye-popper.

Just a warning, there's so much about Carroll's 2006 that says it's an outlier of what we should expect from him going forward, as he had an atypically high (for him at least) BABIP. He's still a terrific baserunner and defender, he's still a pesky and patient hitter, but he's likely not going to duplicate that degree of success ever again and that limits his value. Some of your fans  focusing only on watching diving stops, dirty uniforms and nine pitch at bats on television are going to love him, and others focusing only on OPS and homers are going to wish you never made the move, but he's got decent value with his glove and baserunning ability, and unlike a lot of utility guys, he can take a walk or three as well, so the truth about him will probably lie somewhere in the middle of all that.

I like the Gritty Jesus nickname you guys came up for him at LGT, btw, pretty clever.

by Rox Girl on Dec 9, 2007 8:28 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

question
Do we know that it was the Indians that balked at trading Sean Smith?  I haven't read anything that indicates that was the case.  The article that I read stated "complications arose"--which sounds to me like a failed physical or positive drug test.

by DenverBears on Dec 9, 2007 5:39 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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