On Josh Fogg

by Rox Girl on Mar 28, 2007 6:17 AM MDT in Rockpile

Not to give Josh Fogg a free pass for yesterday's fiasco, but a quick look around the Cactus League box scores will let you know that his line wasn't the only one the 20 mph winds destroyed. It's easy to jump on him, yesterday while the results came out I did myself, but the situation with him is complicated. David OhNo had a good point in the comments to yesterday's game:

This is Fogg in a nutshell

when you don't strike guys out much, or have a serious advantage in another skill (like getting tons of groundouts like Cook, or infield flies like Francis, or just prevent extra base runners by having a miniscule walk rate), you are prone to the random chance this game has to offer. There will be games where Fogg will go seven and give up no runs, or days like today. This leads to pitchers like Fogg being often misevaluated. In the end, there's just too much uncertainty with a pitcher like this, and in most outings, you can be sure you'll receive something below mediocrity (see his career ERA numbers).

This is why I don't like having too many guys like this. Pitchers that have a skill to better control their own destiny (high K or GB rates) stand a better chance to provide more consistency. Despite Jimenez' likely walk totals, he strikes out enough batters to expect some range of performance. It's why even extreme pitchers like Daniel Cabrera can still be a positive contributor to a pitching staff.

Simply put, Fogg is something more than batting practice, but remains at the mercy of "the fates" of baseball. A pitcher that leaves less to chance would be more desirable.

Myself, I see Fogg as pretty much a coin flip. In fifteen of his thirty-one starts last season he gave the Rockies' offense a pretty decent shot at winning the ballgame, while the other sixteen would require a bit more luck and skill on the parts of our hitters to overcome the deficit. The good side is that there were only eight "disaster starts" out of the thirty-one. These are games in which we wouldn't have much reason to believe a win at all possible and that percentage of total starts isn't bad for a fifth starter. Surprisingly the team went .500 in those starts for Josh last year, and some regression in that type of luck could certainly be counted on -driving up Fogg's loss numbers without a subsequent change in wins.

The upshoot is that I'm still okay with Fogg as the number five if we can't be certain that Lawrence or Jimenez would be better or if we had no other similar inconsistencies already in the rotation. My first problem is that I'm pretty certain at this point that either Lawrence or Jimenez would be an improvement in both consistency and quality. My second problem is that Jason Hirsh seems destined for an up and down inconsistent season as rookie going through growing pains. I'm not touching Rodrigo Lopez because frankly I just haven't seen enough of him to make a call. I can make the call here that Fogg better find a rhythm very quickly to start the season as Lawrence seems poised to take over shortly.

Other takes of yesterday's outing:
Drew at Up in the Rockies
Troy E. Renck at the Denver Post.

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Comments

"Only" eight?

Eight "disaster" starts out of 31 is a lot. If we're considering a disaster one of those games where the team has virtually zero chance of winning because the pitcher gives up a bunch of runs, it's a lot for the guy to have it one out of every four times.

Rodrigo Lopez, based on how much his opponents' BA varies from year to year, is also probably a guy who is probably too dependent on luck. Considering that his K and BB rates haven't really fluctuated much at all, the fact that the batting average against him has jumped around a lot is really strange.

The Coors Effect... thinking about changing the name to The Humidor Effect.

by Rox Fan in TN on Mar 28, 2007 7:07 AM MDT reply actions

For the slot, eight isn't that high...

Comparing what other teams got from the last slot in their rotation, that's actually a pretty decent number. Jason Marquis, for instance, had almost twice that amount for the Cardinals. None of our divisional opponents had fewer, either.

What I'm calling "disaster starts" are those with a 32 or lower game score, which you could look up at Baseball Reference or ESPN or a couple other places. They'll be short outings usually with about five runs or more given up.

by Rox Girl on Mar 28, 2007 8:16 AM MDT up reply actions

Fogg and K rates

K rates do seem very important as a K keeps the ball out of play, where even a blind ball can find a hole. Which is why Fogg seems so inconstent, sometimes the ball bounces your way, some time not.

Yeah, we have depth but no quality. Which is another way of saying we have a lot of guys that aren't very good. So replacing mediocre with mediocre isn't that much of an upgrade (even if our mediocre has a change to improve cause of youth or injury bounce back). So I see this as a 1/2 glass full thing. The problem is our competion seem to have a full glass or a 3/4 glass. Pitching and defense is what wins championships "they" say.

BUT we should have a hellofan offense. Offense if funner to watch.

by Redhawk on Mar 28, 2007 10:15 AM MDT reply actions

Well...

We have mediocrity, but most of it is experienced. The Rockies management basically just doesn't want to gamble early in the season. I can almost guarantee that Ubaldo Jimenez is better right now than Josh Fogg. Lawrence will be returning from injury, Taylor Buchholz and BK Kim are in the 'pen, and Morales or Reynolds could be ready by the end of the season. Suffice it to say, Fogg's on a short leash, and probably Rodrigo too.

The Coors Effect... thinking about changing the name to The Humidor Effect.

by Rox Fan in TN on Mar 28, 2007 10:31 AM MDT up reply actions

I like U-ball better than both Fogg and B-Law too,

I'm definitely keeping an eye on him as a replacement for Hirsh if he struggles, or if Rodrigo proves to be a dud, but I just don't think he fits as well as an early call-up. I would have preferred they would have just broken camp with him in the first place.

by Rox Girl on Mar 28, 2007 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions

I think it would be enough of an upgrade.

At least in Fogg's case. Brian Lawrence was a much more consistent pitcher before the second half of 2005, when we can assume the labrum tear started manifesting itself in his performance. Somewhere shortly after this classic Coors Field pitching duel with JJ, his endurance and command just disappeared for much of the rest of the season with only a couple of exceptions.

Like Fogg, he was not as prone to disasters as a typical fifth starter, and in fact, until that last part of 2006 was more effective with the Padres than Fogg is with us at avoiding the huge deficits even when he wasn't at top form.

by Rox Girl on Mar 28, 2007 10:43 AM MDT up reply actions

make that 'last part of 2005'

by Rox Girl on Mar 28, 2007 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions

Lawrence

I was at that game. I was sitting about 10 rows behind the Rockies dug-out.

Lawrence was dominant (it felt like no one could hit him and like he was throwing a shut-out) and JJ seemed to make every inning more difficult than it needed to be.

Great pitching display and great hustle by the Rockies to eek out the lone run. One of the best games I have been to.

This is part of the reason that I like Lawrence (regardless of how unimpressive his collection of pitches looks on paper).

by MADness on Mar 28, 2007 3:48 PM MDT up reply actions

Bonus points for knowing this one

The point about K's and Ground balls reminded me of something. Bonus points if you know where this is from:

"Relax. Alright, don't try to strike everybody out. Strike outs are boring, besides that, they're facist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic. So relax, let's have fun OK? It's fun goddamnit!"

Off topic: I'm so ready for baseball. This is the longest week of the year. The roster is set, spring training seems even more like a scrimmage, and opening day is a week away. This week is worse then the week before Christmas was when I was kid

by Redhawk on Mar 28, 2007 10:55 AM MDT reply actions