Tuesday Pebble Report

I think the issue with control is that though it matters, there are more than just extreme cases where players can succeed without it.  It's not fair to completely saddle Jimenez with prhobitive control issues.  While his list of PECOTA comparables isn't great, it also contains Freddy Garcia (trending up) and A.J. Burnett, who aside from injuries has been a useful player.  The walks may keep him from becoming the ace some envision, but the strikeouts are too early to call off.  If you look at Jimenez' career, he's taken time at some levels before adjusting.  Most recently, in his mid-season promotion to Tulsa, his K rates fell as his walk rate climbed.  After an off-season to get adjusted, he returned to strikeout over a batter an inning, with rates of 4.9 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 (MLE's of 5.0 and 7.8), a K rate high enough to overcompensate for the walks, ala Daniel Cabrera.  Then shuttled to the Springs at mid-season, the K rate fell again, as like in 2005, he sturggled to get acclimated with the league in a timely fashion.  There cold be a case of small sample size here, but if you look at BP's MLE's for his walk rate, these are the numbers in succession from his last four stops (not including his major league debute:  5.6, 5.4, 5.0, 4.7, none of which makes for successful control, but the MLE's suggest that he's slowly making progress in that category.  If we assume that Jimenez is a slow starter (even last year in his AA return, he took him a handful of starts to get locked in), than we could also assume that the K rate should return as he gains more exposure to AAA.  

Now, the problem here may be the environment, not necessarily the competition.  Since CSP does not use a hunidor, and is at a higher park factor than Coors, we could expect Jimenez to lose feel of his curveball and movement on the rest of his pitches.  The debate here may rest in whether or not CSP is a good place for prospects, or, should the Rockies pony up for a humidor in CSP (yes).  

In summation, Jimenez is young enough to still make gains, and his trends in walk rates are in his favor, but not out of the red just yet.  While I think him reaching "ace" status is a longshot, he does have value to a big league club.  PECOTA projections for his 2007 VORP at Coors would exceed Fogg's actual VORP last season, so a case could be made for Jimenez actually improving the team right now.  Even if the walks stay around roughly 4 per 9, if the K's hover around 7 per 9, then he's going to be worth a win or two starting, and in the days of overpriced starting pitching, he's valuable.  

As for Tulowitzki's problem's controlling the strike zone, that's far too early to call.  His PECOTA comparables are loaded with value (Kinsler, Weeks, Peralta, Cuddyer, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Young, Betemit, Barfield...) few may be considered superstars, but putting their production offensively in at shortstop, and you have superior relative value to most opponent's shortstops.  As for his early woes, should they be too out of line for a 22 year old that has never taken a swing at Triple A?  He did have a 9% walk rate for a 21 year old in Double A, so there is evidence of competency in command of the strike zone.  He's not going to be Todd Helton at the plate, but for a shortstop, he'll suffice.

If he just went 3-3 tonight, he'd be hitting .300 on the year, a .78 jump in average from his current total.  I know average doesn't mean a great deal to you (nor to me), but it serves as a good illustration to how young the season is.