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The frustration is valid and warranted

My post, moved from the game thread from last night.

MY bad on posting it in the thread, though some of the logic on what is allowed in thread is confusing, but it ain't my site nor my buck, soooo...

Heck, I'm glad some folks can keep a glass half full view, but I just don't see anything yet that indicates the negatives will stop.

People keep saying things like "when Ianetta/Tulo start hitting..." "when Willy starts getting on base..." etc, but I'm not seeing why that will occur. Is it something in their swing? Their fouling off of balls? I guess I don't see it, which makes me think that in the long run it's not much more than hopeful thinking. These guys the last few years are becoming interchangable. Where's our Brandon Webb, Dontrell Willis,Jimmy Rollins, for example? We have some nice players, but I'm sorry-none are great. Do we really have enough great players coming in our system to be contenders? Are these the guys who can make us contenders?

The thing that frustrates me is MLB has had 4 expansion teams since what, 1977? Two of them have won world series, and rebuilt their team from the ground up once or more. Granted, they (Flordia and Arizona obviously) have also had some horrible seasons too. But ultimately they have remained competitive in general. Hell, I'd take either franchise's overall record and world series wind versus a franchise that is holding on to a weak Wild Card round appearance over a decade ago like it's trying to avoid grim death.

When you look at Colorado and Tampa, though it's not even close. The Rockies out class Tampa, but that's kind of like saying you beat up the no armed kid- not much of a challenge. Neither has really been a success nor shown much of a tendecy to become successful.

I don't see, even just 14 games in, how this season ends up much different than the last two. We'll have some bright spots, some nice players, some hope for the future and overall not enough to be in it to win it. We're just good enough to not be the laughing stock and no where good enough to compete. We're the Post 1985 Kansas City Royals- essentially irrelevant.

I've watched nearly every game this year, and I don't see how this team is fundamentally better than last years team.

I have gotten to the point that I don't see it changing until we get a total change of ownership and management. Look at the long term losers- often the attitudes, philosophies, and metrics mean a perpetual stagnation.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'd be willing to put money down on it, because so far, I don't see many reasons why I will be.

Star-divide

As a follow on- I didn't get to see the end of the game last night, which appears by reading this mornings papers, to have been a nice comeback.

Rox Girl has a nice point this morning on the high level of pitching we've faced this year. Good points on why the team is treading water at below .500 and extrapolating out that several of those folks won't live up to their career numbers. Probably true, but if some exceed and some dip below, you've got an average. How does that average stackup? Without that I can't really tell anything other than what those pitchers were before this year.

I'd be curious on their stats for this year  so far versus lifetime, and how those rank versus other divisions pitchers (since we've faced all division foes).

I guess what I am driving at is what if their stats for this year say that they as pitchers are weak, versus the rest of the NL? That would tell me that there might not be the relief in sight that some are saying there will be.

Of course the reverse might be true too- that we as a team have faced a torturous road thus far and that statistics say it shoudl get easier.

It'd be an interesting exerices to me.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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hey
check out my diary posted right below this one.  ill read this and write thought out responses to all your posts.
Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Apr 18, 2007 9:29 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

i mean
points.
Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Apr 18, 2007 9:29 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Beat ya to it.
Read your stuff. Good points all the way around Larry.

by comedian on Apr 18, 2007 9:34 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

responses
in the order in which you raise the issues- sorry these are kind of bullet pointed and fragmented but i wanted to get to everything in there.  actually i think ill post them as i come to your points.  itll make you look cooler, too, because youll have a ton of comments on your diary!

willy t and tulo/ianetta's hitting- well, taveras has been in the major leagues for 2 full seasons and been a .280+ hitter.  so... i think that speaks for itself.  the guy can play at the major league level.  the latter two dont have a major league track record so you cant really be 110% sure theyll  be successful.  but based on decades of baseball scouting and established methods of predicting who will be successful in the big leagues, you can be 95-99% sure theyll be better than they are now.  in short, your "i dont see why this will happen" argument is a little like saying "i know its april and its supposed to be spring out, but its been snowing for the past week.  therefore i dont see why spring will ever show up.  as far as i can tell its going to be winter forever."  pout even shorter, small sample size.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Apr 18, 2007 10:10 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

response #2
where is our superstar?  well, we dont quite have a webb or a willis.  those guys are pretty awesome.  but a lot of teams dont have guys like that, theyre hard to come by.  what we do have is what looks to be a well above average rotation.  see my comments on it in my diary.  we also dont have a jimmy rollins, but shortstops with 30/30 potential dont exactly grow on trees.  what we do have is a fantastic collection of "near superstars" if you will, who would probably be superstars if denver were a bigger tv market.  look at atkins and holliday's numbers from last year.  they were both in the top 20 in the bigs in terms of average, rbi, and ops.  those are superstar numbers.  if they played in new york or los angeles theyd be household names.  the rest of our team is more than adequate to make us contenders as well.  look at the analysis in my diary, im moving on.  to answer your question (are these the guys taht will lead us to contention?) in a nutshell, the answer is, absolutely.
Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Apr 18, 2007 10:15 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Some points:
  1. Tulowitzki and Iannetta. Yes. It is in their swings. It's in Tulo's frame which adds power as he matures. His downside is his ability to make contact, and the K's are what we should be watching. Iannetta's game is about getting on base, waiting out his pitch and driving it. As Patrick Saunders points out, slow starts have been part of his experience adjusting, but you'll find his learning curve is out of sight. Fourteen games is not close to enough time to judge these two fairly. I'd wait until at least 150 AB's. If they are as bad as this, obviously we'd be screwed at that point anyway, so we might as well find out. In his first full season, Jimmy Rollins didn't crack .200 in batting average until after his tenth game, and that was thanks to a friendly wind in Wrigley Field.
  2. Taveras. With Willy we have much more than fourteen games in his MLB career to tell us that what we see out there right now is an apparition, and not what he's really capable of. I don't know if he's ever going to be more than the player he was in Houston, but he's definitely not close to as bad as he's looked for the Rockies thus far. You are cherry picking a very small sample to be so down on him.
  3. Like Larry B implies in his diary, a key indicator of competitive teams is how often they win or lose blowout contests, games decided by more than a couple of runs. As he mentions, so far the Rockies have lost just one such contest, while winning one as well. Given the strength of our schedule, we've had solid play. The RPI indicator in the ESPN stat tables I linked this morning tries to determine this, as it extrapolates what an "average team" would do in a given schedule to determine how the actual team's record compares. The pitchers in the NL West this year are that good, as the division has gone nine and four against outside competition thus far. This is why LA's start has me a bit worried, as they've breezed through the division on the first go round.

by Rox Girl on Apr 18, 2007 10:16 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the intelligent reposne
Appreciated, especially point 1.

by comedian on Apr 18, 2007 10:35 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

response #3
of course id trade our past for arizona or florida's in a heartbeat.  cant argue with a championship.  but on the other hand, weve never had a 100 loss season, and thats something those two franchises cant say (111 in 2004 for the dbacks).  theyve really ridden the roller coaster while weve been consistently below average.  again, i would trade our pasts in an instant.  but just because both of them caught lightning in a bottle a few times doesnt mean they havent also had some real stinkers as well.  they built those world series teams through free agency, something weve been very unsuccessful with.  thats the difference between our histories.
Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Apr 18, 2007 10:21 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

response #4
your next couple short paragraphs are addressed in my diary.  small sample size, why i think the team has fundamentally improved over last year, etc.  your paragraph about ownership and management is a little more interesting though... certainly, having a steinbrenner type figure in charge would make things more interesting and more competitive immediately.  but were stuck with what weve got there.  no one can fire the monforts.  they could care less about what the fans have to say.  i dont know how fans can get ownership to sell a team... im not sure if its possible.  as for management, i think o'dowd has done a bang-up job recently.  hurdle's opening day extension worries me a lot.  o'dowd's, not so much.  its just kinda... there.  its ok with me if he keeps pulling off jennings-hirsh type trades.  our farm system is really clicking these days as well.
Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Apr 18, 2007 10:26 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

response #5
finally, in regards to your last couple of points/questions- there should be absolutely no doubt in anyone minds that the road will get easier!  first of all, the nl west is vastly underrated and is probably the second toughest division in the bigs after the AL east.  yup, im even sliding us in ahead of the AL central.  detriot's 2006 was an abberation and ozzie is managing the white sox into the ground.  once we get a chance to get our cracks and the other teams in our league, ie pretty much everyone in the central and anyone in the east besides the braves and mets, things will start getting better.  secondly, obviously, were going to get to play 50% of our games at home this year (as compared to the 42% weve had so far).  that statistic speaks for itself.  
Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Apr 18, 2007 10:32 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I had a whole reposnse pecked out
But after reading your post, especially your first paragraph, it's not worth discussing with you Larry.

Good luck with your data research!

by comedian on Apr 18, 2007 10:34 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

ok
ill take your word for it.  what's with the data research comment?  is that a shot at me?
Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Apr 18, 2007 1:19 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

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