Starting the Engines

by Rox Girl on Apr 9, 2007 6:28 AM MDT in Rockpile Comment 8 comments

Despite losing two of three, I have to say that I was thrilled by certain aspects of our trip to San Diego. Aspect number one revolves around the starting pitching:

NL Team ERA leaders (as starters):

NY Mets 1.41
AZ Diamondbacks 2.20
Colorado Rockies 2.63
Houston Astros 2.68
St Louis Cardinals 3.41

That's just the start, however, because ERA can be a very empty and misleading statistic. Let's look at some peripherals to see how sustainable this is.

K/BB Ratio of top five:

Mets 22/12
D-backs 37/21
Rockies 28/7
Astros 24/8
Cards 27/11

That ratio is second in the NL to only Cincinnati at this point, and it's a 180 degree turn from what we've had in the past. I'm thrilled by this development.

OBP Allowed:

Mets .264
'Stros .269
Brewers .273
Cubs .283
Rockies .290

If you don't let people on base, they aren't going to score on you. The Diamondbacks have been letting runners aboard at an astonishing .344 clip, which will come back and bite them as soon as they start playing legit competition again. I can guarantee that the Rockies will win the division if they can continue with that .290 pace. They won't, it will go up some, we just hope not much.

Pitches per plate appearance:

Colorado 3.38
Houston 3.53
Cubs/Nats 3.6
Pittsburgh 3.65

This stat can be misleading also -as the Nationals' appearance indicates- and it should be looked at after everything else. If you've established that you've got a bad staff, it means it's not taking long for opponents to key in on your pitchers' stuff, and you need new pitchers. If your pitchers are putting up otherwise solid numbers, it means that as the season wears on, they won't wear down. By point of comparison look at Arizona again, registering a 3.83. Given how many baserunners they've been allowing, it means they're going to be throwing 17 pitches per frame. Colorado's just under 14 pitches.

Three pitches might not seem like a lot but add it over the course of a six inning start, and then over a 32 start season and you start to see that the extra wear amounts to an additional 576 pitches, or five starts' worth. It's a huge advantage for the Rockies if this trend continues. The sample's still way too small to assume that the trend will continue without looking foolish, but given the strength of opponents this past weekend, it's at least a little more promising for our team than others.

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All of this is well and good, but...

When is our offense going to live up to it's billing? Last year the Rockies scored one more run than the opposition. This year we have scored 5 more runs than the opposition. It seems that when the Rockies lose, they lose by small amounts, but when they win they win big. I wish there was a little more consistency. Now you can look at this from two perspectives: 1) we will turn around those close losses and make some of them wins or 2) the offense will continue to be anemic except for flashes of brilliance.

Personally, I think our high K rate on offense and low OBP from certain places in the batting order account for this.

Your Thoughts?

East Texas's Biggest Rockies' Fan

by Blake20th on Apr 9, 2007 7:42 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

the k rate

doesnt bother me that much. its just another out and keeps us out of double plays. the one exception to this in my opinion is taveras, who isnt just striking out- hes striking out while looking completely and totally lost. he doesnt even look like a major league player right now. cant even get a bunt down (how many pitches has he attempted to bunt this year and failed on? 10? 15?) which is supposed to be his "thing". if tulo or iannetta can get some consistency going, id like to temporarily see one of them move up to the 2 spot, kaz to leadoff, and put taveras down in the 7 or 8 hole until he can get his act together. maybe just for a week or so.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Apr 9, 2007 8:02 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

K rate may keep us out of double plays, but..

it also keeps us from moving up runners. I just happen to believe that if you're not making contact you have no chance for anything to fall. At least if you're making contact you aren't as much of a rally killer as if you strike out.

East Texas's Biggest Rockies' Fan

by Blake20th on Apr 9, 2007 8:09 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't worry about the offense

I'm more worried that the pitching being a mirage than I am about the bats being down all season. Everything in the stats seems to say to me that we've suffered bad luck so far, as the contact rates from those spots you mention are abnormally low compared to established levels. This will change soon enough.

by Rox Girl on Apr 9, 2007 8:18 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, clearly.....

the pitching won't keep up the excellent metrics that you just pointed out. We will have some "rocky" outings soon enough, and things will even out on the pitching front.

As for the hitting, you over-rate them. That's easy to do since the surface numbers were really good in 2006, and figure to be as good this year. Why? Believe it or not, I am not going to say it's due to Coors Field (though it's still a small factor in the "cosmetics" of our hitting stats).

The reason our hitting numbers are misleading is that we feast on lesser relievers and bullpens, but are absolutely anemic against the better relievers. A great case in point was in the last week, when we scored 7 runs off Durbin and the Snakes bullpen in the 8th inning of our blowout victory, chasing the guy off the D-Backs roster. But, when it came to scoring against the likes of Valverde in game #1, or against Linebrink and Hoffmann, no dice.

It's the same pattern I saw last year. We beef up our numbers against marginal major league relief pitchers, and can do absolutely nothing against the better late-inning bullpens. Our hitters are of a quality that makes pitchers pay dearly for mistakes, but aren't real effective making solid contact against those who don't make many mistakes.

This is why when we win, we tend to win big, but are prone to close losses. We aren't clutch, and we aren't GOOD enough an offensive team to beat the better relief pitchers in the league.

by Roxpert on Apr 9, 2007 9:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

So far I can't argue

I know that was the case last season like you mention, and why we faded down the stretch. Thus far this season it's been the same story and that's why I mentioned what I did. I see us catching up offensively to the better relievers during 2007, that's part of why I've predicted slow start but better finish. If we don't, we're toast again.

by Rox Girl on Apr 9, 2007 9:49 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

As far as the pitchers

Yeah, expecting this to continue, particularly from our bottom three is way too much. Keeping the rates solid relative to the rest of the division, however, is what I'm looking for, and we've got a good start on that, particularly compared to the pre-season sweetheart D-backs and the Giants.

by Rox Girl on Apr 9, 2007 9:55 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

loving the k/bb numbers

hirsh and fogg in particular, went out and absolutely challenged hitters in a way i certainly didnt expect them to. obviously its unlikely that every start of theirs will look like what they did to the padres over the weekend, but it was great to see them throwing strikes and forcing batters to put the balls in play. that is the single most important thing for any pitching staff to do, in my opinion, and it seems that (so far) our guys have decided to do so. obviously cookie and francis know what thats all about as well. jury is still out on lopez, he got himself into a lot of 3 ball counts. regardless, im just happy were throwing strikes.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Apr 9, 2007 7:57 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs