Wednesday Pebble Report:
Colorado Springs: Is Jorge De Paula a solution to our bottom of the rotation struggles? After shutting down Memphis yesterday at Security Service Field, he's now 3-0 with a 0.56 ERA at Colorado Springs on the season. COLORADO SPRINGS. That's insanely good for that venue. Since Ubaldo Jimenez clearly isn't ready, and since the team will be hesitant to pull the trigger on Greg Reynolds, De Paula suddenly seems to be the best available option for the job. He's been slow bouncing back from a major arm surgery that kept him out most of the 2004 and 2005 seasons for the Yankees (who the Rockies had traded to for Craig Dingman way back when) but it certainly looks like he's fully recovered now. Josh Fogg should not rest easy.
Cory Sullivan, Clint Barmes, Joe Koshansky, Sean Barker, and Doug Bernier all had multi-hit games to fuel the Sox' offense. I should clarify something that I said Monday, while I think that Barker and Spilborghs are most ready for call-ups to the bigs, I do believe that Koshansky isn't far behind them, and a much better prospect.
In fact, here's how I'd rank the top 10 prospects in Colorado Springs:
- Ian Stewart
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Joe Koshansky
- Spilborghs
- Seth Smith
- Edwin Bellorin
- Sean Barker (a little too old for "prospect" status, but still rookie eligible)
- Joshua Newman
- Jayson Nix
- Alberto Arias
I'm just going to cut and paste David Ohno's rundown from yesterday's thread since he was at the game:
This was the first time I got to see Wimberly as well. He's certainly very short, but appears solidly built for his size. Wimberly slaps at the ball at the plate, but was able to hit a few line drives in front of the outfielders. The wind help up what could have been a homer to left, but it's clear from his swing and lower body actions on contact that power will not be a part of his game. Explodes out of the box and from his lead on steals. He laid down a very nice bunt and with his speed, would have beaten everyone to the bag if it had been fielded cleanly. Defensively, Wimberly showed excelent range and made a fabulous diving stop and throw from the first base side. He did, however, make an error on a chopper, and he doesn't appear to have very soft hands or natural fielding mechanics on balls hit directly at him. Still, range makes him the perfect second base defender for a groundball pitcher like Reynolds.
Darren Clarke looked very impressive. He repeated his delivery well, wasted little motion, and came over the top from his already long frame. His fastball rested in the mid 90's, topping at 97. The slider was around 86 with 11-5 tilt and broke sharply before reaching the plate. He could throw it in the zone for called strikes, and off the plate for chase swings. Fastball had some riding action as well, and looked much harder from his arm angle. Very intimidating mound presence with a wonderful frame. Hopefully he can keep the injuries away now, and he could be on the fast track to the pros.
Other quick notes:
-Herrera's arm appeared much stronger than I credited it earlier. It's not in Tulowtizki's range, but it's above average and could carry him at the position in the majors.
-Czarniecki had a nice running catch in right, flashing good range. Despite the speed, he still underwhelms me stealing bases. He was thrown out attempting one and just seemed slow breaking from his lead.
-Guarno did throw out one runner, but his throws have too much tail and his accuracy was not sharp.
-Wind may have robbed Macri of a homer as well. He swung the bat well and still has the quick swing and size to regain his prospect status.
My top 10 Driller prospects:
- Morales
- Reynolds
- Herrera
- Samuel Deduno
- Wimberly
- Ryan Mattheus
- Matt Miller
- Macri
- Ching Lung Lo
- Adam Bright
- Chris Frey
Okay, we have to pay some serious attention to Daniel Carte, Purple Row jinx or no. The one really bad thing with him is that awful 2/32 BB/K ratio. The one really good thing about him is that .219 ISO (isolated slugging percentage). And the one stat that holds the key to everything is his league leading .456 BABIP. With hitters, particularly in the minor leagues, a high batting average on balls in play could be either a sign of a fluke, or it could mean that the hitter is just that good compared to the league around him. With Carte, there's a lot which leads me to believe that this is mostly fluke, particularly the fact that he's striking out in over a quarter of his at bats and hardly ever taking a walk. His minor league history also suggests that this run is unsustainable. However, a BABIP that high can't be all fluke, and the power numbers back up that he's putting some serious wood on the ball. What's more, even though his minor league history hasn't had a stretch like this, he did put up a similar run in the Cape Cod league a year before he was drafted, which led his stock to rise as much as it did. So in short, he's definitely having a break out season at the plate, but it's still missing a couple of key elements that prevent him from vaulting back into our elite prospect ranks. Yesterday Carte homered and doubled and drove in four runs in the Modesto win.
A brief note about Brandon Durden: Last night's game was a rematch of this April 19 contest which San Jose won 9-7. Durden was awful then, allowing nine hits in five innings, walking two and unleashing two wild pitches. Antoan Richardson, Mike Mooney and Pablo Sandoval each had two of those hits off him. Yesterday they had two hits combined, both in the first inning, which were the only two hits Durden would allow in eight innings. This is certainly a sign of progress.
My current top 10 Modesto prospects:
- Dexter Fowler
- Brandon Hynick
- Chaz Roe
- Chris Nelson (nothing against Nelson, who I really like, this is just a very strong top four)
- Pedro Strop
- Xavier Cedeno
- Eric Young
- Alan Johnson
- Andrew Johnston
- Durden, for now.
Okay, onto the Asheville top 10:
- Hector Gomez
- Daniel Mayora
- Keith Weiser
- Josh Sullivan
- Aneury Rodriguez
- Logan Wiens
- Michael McKenry
- Geoff Strickland
- Craig Baker
- Tommy Baumgardner
[editor's note, by Rox Girl]
I've got to give a lot of kudos to the revamped First Inning website for a lot of the stats I used in today's rundown. It's a solid reference for minor league stuff that's hard to find elsewhere, so I highly recommend checking it out.
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33 comments
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by Charlie Hustle on May 16, 2007 8:22 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
more an oversight on my part
by Rox Girl on May 16, 2007 8:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm left wanting more......
by sg8335aa on May 16, 2007 8:32 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Extended Spring/DSL Top 10:
- Jhoulys Chacin
- Shane Lindsay
- Esmil Rogers
- David Christensen
- Zach Murry
- Will Harris
- Kevin Clark
- Shane Lowe
- Ricardo Ferrer
- Austin Rauch
- Carlos Martinez
by Rox Girl on May 16, 2007 8:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
PERFECT!
It should be interesting to see Christensen in Tri-City this year.
by sg8335aa on May 16, 2007 8:56 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks,
by Rox Girl on May 16, 2007 9:34 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Major Moves, Why Not??
by roxtalk on May 16, 2007 9:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baker.....
by sg8335aa on May 16, 2007 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baker's out of options
by Rox Girl on May 16, 2007 10:04 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stewart
By the way, this is my first post here. I'm impressed with the site and all who've been posting.
by RockieRooter on May 16, 2007 12:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Extended ST
Also, another name is Sheng-An Kuo, a highly touted righty from Asia the Rockies signed. I'd rank Martinez and Ferrer probably 5 and 6. Reports are very good on Ferrer. Martinez was a highly touted International signee.
by Rockiesbiggestfan on May 16, 2007 7:18 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Asheville/Michael Paulk
by lahardball on May 16, 2007 10:25 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
You beat me to the punch!
I was just saying how you've got to be careful with stats because they're misleading. Paulk's been playing out of his mind on the road, and not so much at home. But having seen him at home, I still think he's ready to move up. How many more big two-out RBIs (like yesterday) does he need to get before he forces Colorado's hand?
by jmcgill on May 16, 2007 10:33 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a valid counter
It's true about Wiens' defense, but his bat and age give the Rockies a luxury of patience with him to teach him those skills. It's a good thing Paulk already has that going for him.
by Rox Girl on May 16, 2007 10:53 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're wrong about Paulk
R - 9 doubles, 2 triples, 1 homer
H - 5 doubles 0 triples, 0 homer
Which begs the question why? For starters, Paulk would have more doubles at McCormick if he didn't keep putting dents in the right-field wall. Most guys that can reach the video scoreboard end up with nothing more than a long single. So if you're expecting Paulk to put up huge numbers, remember that until he starts getting those hits OVER the wall instead of bouncing off it, he's probably not going to wow many Rockies fans with his stats. (As an aside, I think you're putting too much faith in some of these more contrived stats - BABIP and so forth, but it certainly goes miles to show your fandom)
In the meantime, all Paulk does is show patience and hit, hit, hit. He has just 23 strikeouts in 38 games, which BY FAR leads all of the regular starters. Michael McKenry has 24 Ks in 31 games and Victor Ferrante has 25 Ks in 27 games. Even Logan Wiens is poised to pass Paulk on the empty swings - he has 18 Ks in 22 games. Paulk is second on the team in walks (19) and slugging (.598, despite the aforementioned reason for his lack of power at home).
I guess what I'm trying to say is I think you're wrong about Paulk losing stock value. I think he deserves a chance at the higher level and for that reason, I still am baffled by the Chris Cook signing in Modesto. But yesterday was Paulk's second game in left field, so maybe the Rockies are toying with the idea of converting him and promoting him that way.
Keep blogging. I enjoy the site.
by jmcgill on May 16, 2007 10:30 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Please don't misread me...
With that, as mean as what I just said sounds, I'm not trying to disrespect Paulk or what he's done, it's a fantastic start to the season. I'm just saying that it's no sure thing that these skills carry over to Modesto. Like you say however, I think Chris Cook has shown that Paulk needs a chance there to prove me wrong.
by Rox Girl on May 16, 2007 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I LIKE KATZ
by 86 wins in 07 on May 16, 2007 10:47 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Katz
by lahardball on May 16, 2007 11:47 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Modesto Top Ten
Cali fans of Cole Garner #31
by garnerb on May 16, 2007 12:46 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Good thought,
by Rox Girl on May 16, 2007 2:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's great to see hardcore minors talk
-I'm a huge Stewart fan, if you guys remember my Driller reports of last year, may like him even more than Tulowitzki. That said, I would not touch Stewart until September. I would let Stewart hit during the summer months of the PCL to give him and the organization confidence in his offensive prowess. After last season in Tulsa, he needs to show consistent results in both contact and power. The contact has come easy thus far, but the power only in spurts. It could partly be the weather, and partly be Stewart making adjustments to improve pitch recognition, contact, etc. with power to come once he is comfortable in his swing again. At any rate, he needs to prove that his early numbers aren't a fluke, and that he is the legitimate heir to third base.
-As far as Tulsa prospects, I'd rank Clarke fifth, ahead of Wimberly. Clarke is loaded with present tools, and is a bit of a rarity in that he's got height and a power repitoire out of the pen. He reminds me of Corpas to the degree that he could move fast this year and perform adequately in the pros. Injuries may be the only thing holding him back. Because he should have a solid major league career if healthy, I think he's easily a better prospect than fringy types like Lo, Mattheus, and Frey.
-I have yet to see Register's stuff in relief, though, so I can't comment on his omission, but I also find Morillo's absence quite perplexing. He had a rough start, but his first six innings of May have been rather stellar, and if he can further limit the walks, he too will have a major league career superior to Lo, Mattheus, and Frey.
-I'm a little leery of Mayora, but not enough to question his status in the top five. He had good numbers last year in Tri-City, but short season numbers are normally taken with a grain of salt. As for his foray into full season ball, he has the splits of a McCormick creation. His road numbers are of "non-prospect" caliber. His numbers in the NWL suggest he can hit in pitching environs, but his SAL road numbers suggest otherwise. He's an interesting prospect based on his secondary skills, but I'm going to withold excitement until he repeats this in Modesto.
-I think Weiser may be the second best prospect in Asheville. From last year's draft, it looks like the Rockies have three shoe-in major league pitchers (Reynolds, Hynick, Weiser) as long as health stays on their side. The common trait here is that these guys don't beat themselves with walks. All three have K rates over 6/9, and Reynolds is the only one with a walk rate over 1/9, but not by much (he also strikes out a batter more per inning). In Weiser's case, he may not have the stuff to be more than a back of the rotation lefty, but if he isn't walking anyone, he could have a long career as a durable, consistent lefty. He'll play in the pros regardless with his current minor league rates.
I love these lists, though. This was a fantastic idea.
by David OhNo on May 16, 2007 1:55 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Well if you like the lists so much......
Top Ten Current Over-Hyped Rockies prospects that will NEVER make it in the majors.
Rules: Err on the side of "not ever making it to the show".....but a brief "look-see" and 1 season riding pine is also valid (see Choo Freeman).
Obviously A-Ball/Short-Season League guys are easier picks since they are years away.
They guy should be hyped by SOMEONE....whether that be a BA Top 30 list or simply by Purple Row Readers (see Paulk/Mayora). In other words, Spencer Nagy should not make your list.
Possible Contenders: EY Jr, Wimberly, Garner, Carte (though not very hyped), A. Johnson, Chaz Roe, Gaetti, Matt Miller, Sammny The Bull, Lindsay, Pedro Strop, Chris Nelson, Lo.
I don't think Christensen should make this list since he hasn't really been hyped yet (or produced)
Higher the rank (on the Top Ten) should be the bigger-hyped prospects. In other words, predicting Chaz Roe never makes it should rank higher than Matt Miller......etc.
Enjoy....
by sg8335aa on May 16, 2007 2:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay...
As for the list, it isn't sexy, but I tried to stay within the guidelines for players that won't amount to slightly more than a cup of coffee type. You aren't going to find any Chris Nelson's or Hector Gomez's here since their upside is too tantalizing, but I also tried not to take the easy way out. So, here's my shot at this:
- Jordan Czarniecki- It was recently posted that a BA staffer preferred him to Seth Smith. Czarniecki can play every outfield position, but he's getting up there in age and hasn't established that he can consistently hit for contact despite a smooth line drive speed. May have bat speed issues. Fourth outfielder is a difficult role to break into as well.
- Alvin Colina- My contention here is that he may not hit enough in a brief cameo to get the organization to trust him, and at his age, he isn't due many chances. He has some nice secondary skills but if bat speed keeps him from hitting above .240, he doesn't have enough to keep him around.
- Ching Lung Lo- His mechanics are a mess and he's running out of time. He likely won't be worth protecting when the time comes, and even then he hasn't demonstrated enough for another team to take a chance on. Lo's prospectdom has been tied largely to hype over performance, but he should not still be on this slow a pace.
- Alberto Arias- He's already received his cameo, and a few posters have expressed satisfaction in his potential, so he fits the requirements. Short soft tossing relievers aren't hard to find, and he's likely to be passed by more talented prospects and free agent/trade acquisitions. Struggles of young pen don't speak well to him making a meaningful repeat appearance with this organization.
- Sean Barker- It's rather rare for a prospect to appear on the scene at age 26, and it's really no coincidence that Barker's rise has come with the altitude and hitting environments of the PCL. His BABIP is currently .500, and it may not drop far in the Springs, but he was a dud in Tulsa two years ago, and I wouldn't expect big things in Colorado upon the call-up he'll undoubtedly receive. 30% K rates may lead to very little contact in the big leagues.
- Daniel Carte- He's made some noise with his hot start, but it is all BABIP driven (.447) and his 28% K rate is well above accepted levels for a prospect at his level without Brandon Wood's power. I'll give his low BB rate a mulligan only because it was around 9% last year, and when 45% of the balls he makes contact with are going for hits, it's hard to fault him for not wanting to walk right now. I'll take the suggestions of two mediocre years over his recent hot start. Even now he still needs more pop to stick in an outfield corner.
- Michael Paulk- Rates this high only because of the love he receives here rather than elsewhere. I'm not going to tell you guys that he's having a "fluke" year, or that he's a non-prospect, because he needs a call up to prove one side or the other. There are other notes of concern for his prospectdom, though. For one, first base prospects must demonstrate power in spades, or they just won't crack the big leagues. Currently, Paulk's ISO is under .200, despite his home park and left-handedness. I don't buy the argument that he's trying not to play to the park's strengths, because if he is he's foolish. Paulk is seen on the periphery of Rockies' prospects, and using McCormick to blast 25 homers is a good way to put yourself on the map, if for not this organization others. Second, he's about to be 23 and repeating SAL, so he should be outperforming the competition (though not this much, that's where the .445 BABIP comes in). I like the K and BB rates, but the power must increase and the contact must stick if he's to climb the difficult ladder of minor league first baseman.
- Matt Miller- Here's a good lesson for those wanting to see a McCormick creation. Miller has yet to show the same pop since leaving the cozy confines. Miller is only adequate defensively, and is already behind Spilborghs, Smith, and Barker on the organizational food chain. It just takes one of those three to make it as a fourth outfielder to put him on notice. He hasn't had a high enough ISO to start in a corner since leaving Low A ball.
- Eric Young Jr.- You could just as easily put Wimberly here, but I thought Young would make the list controversial. Speed is an exciting tool, but in the grand scheme of things, these two may have only two playable major league tools, which lessens the impact factor, and without pop, they will have to take the "beat out infield hits" route, which doesn't often afford several chances. In 145 AB's in High A, Young isn't hitting for any pop, isn't walking enough for his skill set, and is striking out a little too much. Sometimes, patience just disappears for slap hitters when the jump levels, as more experienced pitchers stop nibbling and start pounding the zone. Not only must Young deal with Wimberly, who has the same tools but is currently a level ahead, but Gomez, Herrera, and Nelson all could handle second and have more rounded tool sets.
- Shane Lindsay- This has nothing to do with stuff or performance. Every team has natural attrition with their prospects, and it's starting to look like Lindsay's labrum will make him the pitcher that never was. As much as we'd like to see him be the stud he can be, injuries have other plans. I think it's a strong possibility that Lindsay may never be healthy enough to carry his original stuff to the bigs.
by David OhNo on May 16, 2007 9:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clarke's definitely solid
I'm curious about how much you've seen Mattheus pitch this year, as statistically, he's taken a step forward from where he left off at Modesto last season, especially considering the change in league quality, and his GB rates have always been good. He's upped his K's and downed his BB's and hits allowed, right now the run average seems to be trailing these other stats thanks in part to a lack of bullpen support. He had one really bad start in April, but the other seven have all been quality or near quality. Since you have the eyes on the ground, you could probably give a better understanding of what's going on.
by Rox Girl on May 16, 2007 2:59 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be truthful
My contention with Mattheus is he's just been too hittable in his minor league career. The K and BB rates are solid, but he's also had a solid strand rate, so all the blame can't be placed on the bullpen for last year or this year. Sometimes with BABIP, prospects are unlucky (or lucky), but if they begin to trend (especially in pitchers) then there's a larger issue. Mattheus' BABIP was very high last year, and is looking pretty high again this year.
Stuff-wise, he's prospect worthy from what I understand, but for the back end of the rotation. It's harder for players like this to crack the majors than pitchers like Clarke or Morillo. I wouldn't consider him a non-prospect like I do Lo, it's just that I believe Clarke and Morillo are higher on the food chain, that's all.
by David OhNo on May 16, 2007 9:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Paulk
Other quick points: there is a night and day difference between Paulk and Wiens defensively. I wish the Rockies would experiment with Wiens in left field instead of Paulk. Paulk has already saved countless errors by digging poor throws. Wiens has shown impressive power, though, given how little he gets to play. At the same time, he does seem to get a lot of "Asheville" hits. Lastly, if Weiser isn't promoted by Memorial Day, someone isn't doing their job. He needs better competition.
by hobfan on May 16, 2007 2:32 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
can't say I disagree, except for that part about
by Rox Girl on May 16, 2007 2:42 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Random
I think that Paulk's lack of home runs at McCormick is something that might be over-analyzed a bit.
by MADness on May 17, 2007 5:21 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
completely agree
He really has been stinging the ball, more so than any other hitter on the roster. No excuse why he's not getting a crack at better pitching.
by jmcgill on May 17, 2007 10:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Paulk
by lahardball on May 16, 2007 6:28 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
And Hynick
by Russ Oates on May 16, 2007 10:35 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Also, thanks to rox girl's plug
by David OhNo on May 16, 2007 10:43 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs



















