Monday Morning Rockpile:

by Rox Girl on Jun 11, 2007 6:47 AM MDT in Rockpile

The Rockies just completed a stretch of games going back to the beginning of May (April 30, actually) where the only opponent with a winning record that they faced in that span was Arizona. After getting off to a rough start, the team turned around and finished 21-18 overall in that run. Not spectacular by any means, and probably not quite decent enough to be worthy of contention, but I could point to articles in papers in each of these opponent cities (those with losing records) citing the same desire to see their team turn the season around in this soft spot of the schedule. As of this morning, the Rockies are the only one of the underperforming group to close to within five games of .500.

These next twenty-five games leading into the All-Star break, however, represent a considerable step up in the degree of difficulty with a dangerous Houston team being the worst of the bunch and the AL and NL leading Mets and Red Sox being the best. They also will determine a lot about how the rest of the year will shake out.

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It would take an absolute disaster in this stretch, I'm thinking over seventeen losses, to really consider trading Brian Fuentes before the end of July. That's why speculation like this should be ignored for now. Even Jayson Stark's claim that Todd Helton is perpetually on the trade block needs to be taken with a considerable grain of salt.

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Troy E. Renck has a mailbag, in which he says the Rox are going to make a push for yet another multi-million dollar reliever this offseason. I'm telling you, as long as I see this, Casey Weathers looks better and better as a draft choice. Renck also disses on Chris Iannetta, who still has a higher OPS than Torrealba. Come on, Troy, you know better than to just take batting average at face value.

In another article, Renck mentions that the Rockies have leverage over Weathers in contract negotiations, which is to be expected for a college senior. I think he's remiss not to also mention that as an expected fast mover, Weathers is likely to be earning a major league paycheck faster than most if not everybody else in the draft, making the potential difference in signing bonus less a dollar loss than it might seem.

Also from that article, note that JC Romero, as well as Jay Witasick, is available, and both represent upgrades over the leader in the poll to the right-->.

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Tracy Ringolsby points out the .500 road record for the Rockies in his recap, an achievement that may be difficult to maintain in Fenway. I'm eager to see how Matt Holliday's bat plays there, however.

The Hirsh brothers have proven to be accessible, even while Jason struggles at times this season. He's got some really fantastic leadership qualities, and I'm hoping yesterday's start is a sign of good things to come.

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well...

even if you care about BA, Iannetta has outhit Torrealba in the last month (.220 to .213), not that either has been impressive.

I am a bit worried about the Rockies new drafting strategy, if for no other reason than how it has changed in the last several years. The Rockies built the system (at least the first rounders) up by drafting players (at least in the first round) considered best available by conventional wisdom--Stewart, Nelson, Tulowitzki--this is now two straight drafts where this isn't the case and I can't help but conclude that it is driven by budgetary concerns, but another common thread in the last two first round picks is that both players are/were very advanced and should be in the majors fairly quickly. I wonder if O'Dowd and colleagues are feeling pressure to compete sooner rather than later.

by DenverBears on Jun 11, 2007 8:16 AM MDT reply actions

Well,

Troy fits into both the best player available category and advanced/reach the majors quickly category. What would be the difference with the Rockies now if Cameron Maybin was taken in 2005 over Tulo?

And don't we want the Rockies to compete now and later on?

"Vae victis!" - Brennus the Gaul

by Russ Oates on Jun 11, 2007 8:57 AM MDT up reply actions

I'm not sure...

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying, probably because my comment wasn't particularly focused. I guess also Longoria would have fit the profile of best available/advanced as well, yet the Rockies passed on him, as well. I actually don't think you and I view things any differently. I definitely want the Rockies to compete now and later on. My concern is that we give credit to the Rockies for establishing an excellent minor league system and tend to expect this to continue, because we now take for granted that they know what they are doing. However, the farm system was built in large part by taking players that everyone believed were the best available. Now, for two consecutive years the Rockies have taken players in the first round that no other team would have taken in that slot. Do we believe the Rockies are that much smarter than everybody else or that something else is driving these decisions?

by DenverBears on Jun 11, 2007 10:38 AM MDT up reply actions

Weathers...

"that no other team would have taken in that slot"

You're wrong. The Giants were prepared to take him at #10 if we didn't (so to say they wouldn't have taken him at #8 if they were picking then would be wrong).

There were also plenty of rumors of teams in the 9-15 range who were interested in him as well(Ari, Cle, Cin)

Neither Reynolds nor Weathers were "over-drafts". Yes they were taken a few picks above what most people predicted they should be taken.....but we're only talking about 2-5 picks higher here (and not 15 picks)

by sg8335aa on Jun 11, 2007 12:01 PM MDT up reply actions

I guess my point was

that Troy was the pick that created the bridge between the old way and the new way the FO may be going about. I just think it's wrong to classify Troy as only the best player available (depending on how you define that, and I'll define my approach in a little bit). As I wrote above, he was advanced and was the best player available, but some people might argue that Cameron Maybin was the best player available. Troy was going to help a major league team win games before Maybin reached Double A and that has turned out to be true. That's why he was taken (with a few other considerations thrown in).

I guess I view "best available player" as a player who has the most talent, an advanced feel for the game and is quite signable. I don't have a problem with that approach, but others do because of that last part. I don't believe the Rockies compromised their first round picks this year and last year to get easy signs. These guys are legitimate talents that will help the Rockies win in the immediate future and later on.

"Vae victis!" - Brennus the Gaul

by Russ Oates on Jun 11, 2007 12:15 PM MDT up reply actions

Catch the Wave

I wonder if the Rox brass are following a wave approach to drafting and consider Weathers the tail of the wave. If so, then there's great value in having somebody ready to join the present wave at the ML level.

by RockieRooter on Jun 11, 2007 4:09 PM MDT up reply actions

I still don't buy that Weathers isn't the best

available to the Rockies at their slot this year. Last year, I think Andrew Miller was clearly the superior talent to Reynolds, so what you say was probably true then, the Rockies apparently didn't want to give Miller a major league contract. Longoria and Lincecum have outperformed what could have been expected, and Tim's arm is going to have trouble down the road, it's just a matter of when. I like Reynolds a lot, though.

This season, however, I'm really beginning to think the Rockies made the right call whether it was money driven or not. The three or four players who everybody points to as who they'd rather have are all high schoolers, none of whom figures on making the Major Leagues until 2011. By then, Weathers will likely have three seasons of value he's already given our club at a near minimum salary, and be nearing the point where trading him will return even greater dividends, similar to where we're at with Fuentes right now.

None of the others will sign for less than $2 million, meaning Arizona's going to have to stretch to get Parker, and an article in Detroit said their chances of signing Porcello (who wants $8 million) are 50-50. Dominguez and Heyward will likely get signed, but I'm not sure it will be fast enough for them to enter the system in time to develop this year. So what it comes down to is that a lot of people are advocating that the Rockies spend more money in the draft to get less back.

If everybody signs and plays to their potential for their selecting club -which won't happen, and we have the guy most likely too- what happens is that Porcello is the next Josh Beckett (giving Detroit ace like value in 2011) and Weathers will have given us just as many innings of top notch performance at that point for a quarter of the price. We could then trade Weathers for a starting position player plus a top, Porcello-like prospect (the going rate) and not have to pay their signing bonuses, either.

by Rox Girl on Jun 11, 2007 9:07 AM MDT up reply actions

I've avoided draft conversations

mostly cause I don't really understand baseball draft. To me it looks like a real crap shoot all around. An 18 year old High School kid may sign, or may go to college instead. He may grow and develop, or he may not.

But what I don't understand is why people think Weathers isn't a good pick. Like guys that can throw near 100 mph are a dime a dozen. As a senior and a reliever, he is closer to the Bigs, which gives him a much greater chance to actually help the major league club. Sure an OF or a Catcher that are 2 years away from the bigs would be great, but was that guy available when we picked?

Young "projects" seem to make sense to me after the early rounds.

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club!

by Redhawk on Jun 11, 2007 9:28 AM MDT up reply actions

I'm still unsure about Weathers...

but you may be correct. I would have taken Heyward, or if you wanted someone more quickly, Mills (I know people have reservations about him here). Say what you will, but drafting Weathers bucks conventional wisdom and the Rockies certainly are more or less alone in this strategy and we are left hoping the Rockies are smarter than everybody else.

As for last season, nobody had Reynolds that high on their board last year--if I remember correctly, he wasn't even in the top 10 on most projections. Many of us here actually wanted the Rockies to take Longoria at #2, so his success isn't that unexpected--certainly no more so than Reynolds to this point.

by DenverBears on Jun 11, 2007 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions

Reynolds WAS a Top 10 pick

but most everyone thought he was going in the 5-10 range.....

by sg8335aa on Jun 11, 2007 11:54 AM MDT up reply actions

Most had him in the Top 10

He rose fast prior to the draft, and BA had him at #5, while Longoria was #4. Longoria's success is unexpected to this degree, I don't know of anybody who predicted an ascent for him this fast with as much power as he's shown, if you can find that prediction, I'd be happy to read it because that should be a trusted source.

by Rox Girl on Jun 11, 2007 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions

hahahaha

this is so far up the post that im not sure anyone will see it at this point, but ill write it anyways:

you: "I wonder if O'Dowd and colleagues are feeling pressure to compete sooner rather than later."

maybe... i don't know, you think? what would give you that impression? the rapidly decaying attendance numbers? the 95% negative media response to anything the team does? the fact that they're the 4th most popular team in their own hometown, and dangerously close to being caught by the crush? excuse the sarcasm, but yeah, i think theyre probably feeling just a little bit of pressure. which, as a supporter of them, makes me happy they took weathers. im excited to see him in the bigs no more than a year from now.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Jun 11, 2007 12:50 PM MDT up reply actions

Have I Mentioned Lately...

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Jun 11, 2007 9:19 AM MDT reply actions

Balanced Perspective

Seems that every time I get a bit frustrated with this team, Rox Girl brings me back to a balanced perspective. Keep up the good work!!

Same goes for Russ and David, and the other regular bloggers.

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Jun 11, 2007 9:33 AM MDT up reply actions

Last night -

In appreciation for winning the game, the Rockies gave Hirsh a little something (at bottom of story) different to wear on the flight...

I want to know how they got it that fast, or if they were already planning to make him wear it.

the show must go on

by Squeaky on Jun 11, 2007 10:11 AM MDT reply actions

Spilly had

to wear a "shimmering pink dress shirt."

"Vae victis!" - Brennus the Gaul

by Russ Oates on Jun 11, 2007 10:20 AM MDT up reply actions

Ianetta with RISP

Is much better than Torrealba as well. There's really no excuse at this point.

Even if Torrealba was marginally better, Ianetta should be getting the majority of the at bats.

by Onebaseman on Jun 11, 2007 4:19 PM MDT reply actions

I'm feeling better about...

one of our more questionable picks after reading this:

But when Fronenberger's name comes up, the scout says "You know, this guy's raw stuff is every bit as good as Vineyard's, his curveball is maybe better than Vineyard's slider, and he's a great athlete and great competitor, even if he's roughly the same height as a fungo bat. He IS going to pitch in the big leagues and he IS signable where I want him." He then sells the hell out of Fronenberger in the sixth- to eighth-round range while maintaining he's signable through an even later round, thus creating "value" if the scouting director still sees his name on the board in the 10th round.

The scout is referring to Mets' pick Nathan Vineyard, who was selected 47th overall. Even though the scout was trumpeting him for the sixth to eighth round and the Rockies jumped the gun by taking him in the fourth, I'm guessing they probably weren't the only ones to see him, and really, really wanted him in the system.

by Rox Girl on Jun 11, 2007 6:43 PM MDT reply actions