Monday Morning Rockpile:

by Rox Girl on Jun 25, 2007 7:15 AM MDT in Profiles

Dave Krieger has again been stealing my notebook, and is writing about what's also apparent to me and several others here, I assume, that the Rockies' rotation is still not quite of the caliber of a contender. Francis and Lopez are doing a standout job in two slots, but the other three members of our starting five are flailing in the water and can't keep up.

The solution?

On the team we have Taylor Buchholz, who was making strides as a fill-in starter while Lopez was re-habbing, but who also should be given as much credit for stabilizing the pen as LaTroy Hawkins is getting. I don't know if we want to shake things up there until Casey Weathers, Juan Morillo or Darren Clarke are ready to assume that role.

Off the team, but still inside the system, only Greg Reynolds appears close as Krieger mentions, but Ubaldo Jimenez would only need to put together a string of three or so quality starts to get a look. There will be a handful of starts for both of these pitchers before the trade deadline, and there's still enough season left that the move doesn't need to be made right now. I don't think we'll be hurt by a little more patience in this area, but Reynolds should be called up to the Springs shortly.

Looking at the options outside, I think there's enough of a bidding war for Mark Buehrle that the cost in talent for him will be prohibitive, with the Brewers, Braves, Cardinals, Yankees, Mets and Red Sox among the teams expressing interest. If we have to look this direction, a better route than following the herd might be to offer a bat like Atkins or Baker to the Angels and try to get a decent young pitcher back.

Speaking of Krieger, compare his evaluation of Dan O'Dowd on Friday to Richard Justice's take on Houston GM Tim Purpura. Of course, O'Dowd's first season or so with the Rox was about as disastrous as Purpura's year with the Astros is proving to be, so perhaps we should preach at least a little patience to the loyal fans in Houston.

Troy E. Renck talks to Willy T about getting the shaft from umps at first in the almost no-hitter that shouldn't have been, and has various other notes including confirmation of the Octavio Dotel rumor Ken Rosenthal mentioned the other day.

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its been covered before

but to me, hirsh is the most troubling guy in the rotation right now. i say give him one more shot at putting up a quality start and then switch him with buchholz. the biggest difference between hirsh in april and hirsh now- ability to use the changeup as a strikeout pitch. maybe he's tipping it or something, because that's not happening anymore.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Jun 25, 2007 8:10 AM MDT 0 recs

Agreed

Personally, I think the best scenario would be to switch Hirsh and Buchholz. Buchholz was doing awesome when he was in the rotation and Hirsh being in the bullpen would still allow him to work on his command against major league hitters.

As for not wanting to take Buchholz out of the bullpen, they may be what they are thinking but I would much rather have him stabalize the rotation so we don't have to lean so heavily on the bullpen.

If Hirsh gets sent down, we should bring back Darren Clarke. He was doing well in his limited time up here and he deserves a chance to show more of what he can do.

Free Taylor Buchholz!

by lgh77 on Jun 25, 2007 2:43 PM MDT up 0 recs

We don't need a "decent young pitcher"

We need an established quality starter to bring some stability to the rotation.

by Onebaseman on Jun 25, 2007 8:18 AM MDT 0 recs

Agreed BUT

a good established pitcher, that is also available will be very high priced both on what we will give up and his salary, and if he's actually signed for more then through this year, prices will only go up. But if we are dealing Atkins who is a potential top 10 type hitter, we should get something decent. (But I'm concerned w/ trading Atkins at his lowest point/value)

There isn't many pitchers I'm too excited about that is available. I'd rather give shots to our youngsters in the system. Players come out of nowhere and surprise all the time. Even Uballo Jimenez should get a shot, as anything he's done at humidor-less Col. Springs isn't going to be a accurate read.

Of our 3 struggling I'm most concerned with Cook. His number have been terrible, he hasn't put up a real good outing yet this year. Fogg has a couple good outings as has Hirsh. Cook also hasn't been that great since his surgery.

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club!

by Redhawk on Jun 25, 2007 8:35 AM MDT up 0 recs

i'm concerned about cook too

but what you say is plain wrong. first of all, here's cook's ERA by season presurgery-
2002- 4.54 (limited action)
2003- 6.02
2004- 4.28

and after surgery
2005- 3.67
2006- 4.23
2007- 4.93

his numbers are roughly equivalent.

second of all, here are some of his outings this year-

IP H R ER BB SO
9 5 1 1 0 4 4/8, @SD
7 6 0 0 2 2 4/24, @NYM
9 5 1 1 4 2 5/26, @SF
7.1 7 2 2 2 4 6/12, @BOS

yeah, they were all on the road. and he only won 1 of these games due to bad run support. but they all definitely should count as "real good outings". like i already said, cook worries me a lot and he needs to pitch better for this team to have a chance to make the postseason. but you sound bad when you throw around claims that aren't true.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Jun 25, 2007 10:41 AM MDT up 0 recs

the last line

was uncalled for. Lay off the personal attacks. You don't like my posts or my opinions fine. You want to prove I'm wrong fine. But there is no need to make it personal.

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club!

by Redhawk on Jun 25, 2007 10:50 AM MDT up 0 recs

That would be nice

But the problem is that there only seems to be one or two "established quality starters" available and about a dozen teams with that on their wish list. Unless you have a very deep bench and system, you'll be giving up more wins than you get back, and that goes for this season as well as for several seasons down the road. The Rockies' bench isn't that deep, we were crippled when Kaz Matsui got injured, and while our system is pretty good, the players aren't performing well enough this season to get any sort of equity in an exchange. If a quality veteran starter slips beneath the radar, say one (preferably an American Leaguer) who's been having an off year by their established standard, it would be nice to go after them, but right now, I couldn't figure out who that would be.

by Rox Girl on Jun 25, 2007 8:41 AM MDT up 0 recs

While the Red Sox have interest

in Buehrle, the White Sox are believed to want Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester as part of any deal. I see that as the breaking point. If that's the level Chicago wants to start off at, it's better to pass.

"Vae victis!" - Brennus the Gaul

by Russ on Jun 25, 2007 8:40 AM MDT 0 recs

Ace for hire

One of the reasons why the top teams are always in the playoffs is because they are not afraid to make the big deal.

If Buehrle is really available, then you can bet the Dodgers or the Red Sox or the Yankees will somehow find a way to get him.

The Rox have to take the gamble. This team is running out of time. It'll be 2009 before we know it and the Holliday's and the Hawpes and the Atkins will be gone.. and we'll be rebuilding again.

Do the deal.. lets win now.

by roxhead on Jun 25, 2007 8:56 AM MDT 0 recs

Completely disagree

That type of deal ONLY makes sense to the Rockies (or another team) if 1 more starting pitcher is the "last piece of the puzzle"

Unfortunately, the Rockies have 2-3 holes in their rotation right now and Buehrle might not be enough to get them to the playoffs.

Dealing 2-3 top prospects only makes sense if we had 4 other strong options in our rotation.

I vote NO!

by sg8335aa on Jun 25, 2007 9:08 AM MDT up 0 recs

Huh?

"Dealing 2-3 top prospects only makes sense if we had 4 other strong options in our rotation."

Why make a deal if your rotation is "strong"?

by roxhead on Jun 25, 2007 9:13 AM MDT up 0 recs

You need 5 starters......

"strong" might not be the best word....how about "solid"

Right now we have two "strong" guys in our rotation and 3 "question marks". We could get by with Fogg as our #5 if Cook/Hirsh were pitching well.

We'd need Cook to pitch like last year before I'd consider making such a huge deal (to basically replace Hirsh in the rotation).

We essentially have 2-3 holes in our rotation right now (not "just 1"). Buehrle alone won't get us to the playoffs. I'd rather target 2-3 guys who won't cost a fortune.

Trading for Buehrle only fits a team that is 1 starting pitcher away from making a splash in the playoffs (at his current price). We're not there yet.

by sg8335aa on Jun 25, 2007 9:41 AM MDT up 0 recs

Wild card

"Trading for Buehrle only fits a team that is 1 starting pitcher away from making a splash in the playoffs (at his current price). We're not there yet."

We're only 4.5 games out of a playoff spot even with the current rotation.

We all know what the problem is.. you only make my point for me.

Make the deal.

by roxhead on Jun 25, 2007 9:47 AM MDT up 0 recs

let me take the SABR stance

i'm not some crazyass SABR nut. but for what it's worth, buehrle doesn't strike a lot of guys out. letting a lot of balls into play at coors field tends to be a bad thing unless you have a truly dominant sinker like cook has. well, or has had in the past anyways. not sure if i like buehrle. let's see what else we can troll around for- i know we should make a deal sooner rather than later, but there's still 5+ weeks till the deadline.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Jun 25, 2007 10:34 AM MDT up 0 recs

not that simple

if there was nothing between us and the 4.5 games, I'd lean towards agreeing with you....

HOWEVER...we're 5.5 Games out of the NL west but need to leap-frog 3 teams.

We're 4.5 games out of the Wild Card, but need to leap-frog 3 teams (including Philly).

Its not just the games, but the number of teams we're behind.

I love the way the Rockies are looking, however we're not 1 pitcher away from making the playoffs (at least right now with Cook struggling).

Now if our situation changes over the next 5 weeks between now and the deadline, I could be convinced. Unless 4 of the 5 spots in our rotation stabalize......or we pull within a couple games (and overtake a few teams in the standings).....I'm not willing to trade away upper-echlon prospects for that type of deal.

by sg8335aa on Jun 25, 2007 11:50 AM MDT up 0 recs

What about

adding someone not marquee but a player who serves as a bridge until Hirsh/others are ready.

Mike Maroth was lifted by the Cards for peanuts recently. Someone like Steve Trachsel or Jared Weaver who obviously haven't been featured regularly on "That's Nasty" but could provide innings come to mind.

I'm not sure what the line on Buchholz is but if the feeling is that we shouldn't shake up the pen and don't want to break the bank for a front runner this seems to make sense to me.

Thoughts on other second tier guys would be great.

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jun 25, 2007 9:43 AM MDT 0 recs

Jered Weaver for peanuts?

Or do you mean his brother, Jeff?

"Vae victis!" - Brennus the Gaul

by Russ on Jun 25, 2007 9:46 AM MDT up 0 recs

Names I've heard could be available

Freddy Garcia
Brett Myers
Jon Lieber
Jose Contreras
Jose Vazquez
V. Paddilla
Kyle Loshe
Trachsel (sp)

Possibles:
Kevin Millwood
Jerred Washburn
Bronson Arroyo

Of these, the only veteran I'd like to give a shot to would be Contreras. Mostly for his playoff experience. I don't know if he has anything left in the tank, but he had more in his tank then others on this list.

Arroyo could be interesting as well.

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club!

by Redhawk on Jun 25, 2007 10:36 AM MDT up 0 recs

here's a name that I think we could get cheap:

Shawn Chacon. And before you gag, he has experience with pitching at Coors, and his K/w numbers are pretty good 46 k/ 28 W in 58 Innings pitched. He also wouldn't cost us an arm or a leg.

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club!

by Redhawk on Jun 25, 2007 10:45 AM MDT up 0 recs

I've had this thought

Shawn is the type of pitcher that we will be able to afford. There is too much risk involved in acquiring a frontline starter. We may have to push Francis and Lopez up and bring in a couple of 4/5s and hope that they catch fire.

While this team has been fun to watch there is no guarantee that they are a contender and unloading quality prospects on a "gamble" for a frontline starter that will most likely leave at the end of the season isn't good business.

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Jun 25, 2007 12:34 PM MDT up 0 recs

my feelings

Freddy Garcia - hurt shoulder. next.
Brett Myers - that would be awesome but i'm sure the phils would want a king's ransom. next.
Jon Lieber - not a bad idea.
Jose Contreras - not a very good idea, i could care less about "playoff experience". the guy is not having a much better season than hirsh or fogg.
Jose Vazquez - i assume you mean javier vazquez, and if you do, no way we can meet chicago's price on him.
V. Paddilla - this guy sucks.
Kyle Loshe - not a bad idea. very inconsistent
Trachsel (sp) - another decent idea.

Possibles:
Kevin Millwood - i'm not sold on him. been hurt this year.
Jerred Washburn - decent idea.
Bronson Arroyo - no way we could pay what the reds would want.

so yeah, there's a couple ok guys in there, if they are indeed available at a non-ridiculous price.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Jun 25, 2007 10:48 AM MDT up 0 recs

I was just

trying to list some of the names of pitchers I've read that might be available or have come up in rumors. I wasn't saying the Rockies should or could go after any of these.

Geeze

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club!

by Redhawk on Jun 25, 2007 10:57 AM MDT up 0 recs

i know

and i liked some of the names on your list. so i commented on them.

"geeze."

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Jun 25, 2007 12:14 PM MDT up 0 recs

Lieber

Blew out a tendon, out for the season.

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Jun 25, 2007 11:38 AM MDT up 0 recs

i knew that

whoops, no i didnt.

Rockies in October.

by LarryB303 on Jun 25, 2007 12:13 PM MDT up 0 recs

I agree that the list seems underwhelming, at best

I'd rather have Moseley or Saunders from Los Angeheim than any of these guys except Myers who I wouldn't put in the "available" category except for in pipe dreams.

I do think Padilla or Kam Loe from Texas might be interesting plays if they are made available for peanuts. Both have pretty decent groundball rates and should be considerably better in an NL environment. Loe particularly, as homeruns have been the primary nemesis for him this year, and much like the case with Rodrigo, they'd be cut down considerably at Coors with the humidor. The move would be mocked by many fans, but if we don't have to give up a lot, it should turn out to be a steal.

by Rox Girl on Jun 25, 2007 11:56 AM MDT up 0 recs

More names I've heard in rumors

I've heard these names mentioned in trade rumors so they may or may not be available:

Clay Hensley (to Cubs for J.Jones)
Sean Henn (for Carlos Pena)
Carlos Zambrano (FA year Mets only team mentioned)
Mark Buehrle (of course)
Claudio Vargas and/or Dave Bush (if the Brewers get Buehrle. Brewers want bullpen depth)
Jason Jennings (FA)
T. Gorzelanny (Pirates want a corner INF/OF bat)
Wade Miller

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club!

by Redhawk on Jun 25, 2007 1:17 PM MDT up 0 recs

Gorzelanny for Baker??

Probably have to throw in another minor leaguer too on our end.

by Prospector on Jun 25, 2007 1:41 PM MDT up 0 recs

How about

Chacon for Baker? I liked Chac, I'd do that in heart beat! (as we have Seth Smith and Barker, that would be just as handy to us off the bench as Baker)

Every rumor I've seen on Gorzelanny has the Pirates asking for the moon. But Gorzelanny's name does seem to pop up which suggests he's being shopped.

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club!

by Redhawk on Jun 25, 2007 1:57 PM MDT up 0 recs

sorry

Jeff is who I meant but Jered would be nice.

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jun 25, 2007 10:03 AM MDT 0 recs

Jeff Weaver

I don't think that I would even give up a bag of peanuts for Jeff Weaver! He hasn't been the same since leaving Detroit, and totally pitched himself into a fat contract with a "decent" playoff performance last year. If ownership is gunshy on trading for starting pitching, then Weaver should be a huge red flag. (You remember the names Hampton and Neagle, don't you Charlie?)

by easccp on Jun 25, 2007 10:16 AM MDT up 0 recs

with Hampton and Denny

we were on the hook. What I'm in the market for are players who are low risk high reward types with teams fitting the bill for mid to low level prospects.

The last thing we need is Denny "pays for love" Neagle. Speaking of which what ever happened with that hearing he and the team had in regards to his contract?

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jun 25, 2007 10:20 AM MDT 0 recs

settled out of court

The Rox got a bit of a discount, but not much.

by Rox Girl on Jun 25, 2007 10:33 AM MDT up 0 recs

the problem with Neagle and Hampton

Were the astronomical contracts signed in order to get them to come to Coors. Neagle was vastly overpaid for his talent level and past accomplishments.

Any pitcher acquired in a trade wouldn't have such an obviously inflated contract negotiated with their current team (unless we tried to get AJ Burnett or Gil Meche), because the circumstances would be different.

So while any contract acquired would be higher than any of the pitchers on our staff, I don't see how it would be anywhere near as damaging as Hampton or Neagle's to the team.

by Onebaseman on Jun 25, 2007 10:49 AM MDT up 0 recs

so for Washburn

or any of the other decent ideas from that list what would be fair return. Baker + Nix? Barker+ Martin?

To me it is more important what we give up than what we recieve since this would be little more than a patch on the oozing tire that is our pitching staff.

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Jun 25, 2007 11:51 AM MDT 0 recs

I don't know what's FAIR

but I can guess what Seattle will want. They will want a young starting pitcher that's close (we have a few of those). AND a starting OF'er one of: Hawpe/Atkins/Tavares

We might get Seattle to throw in one of their young catching prospects like Rivera.

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club!

by Redhawk on Jun 25, 2007 1:41 PM MDT up 0 recs

Off topic

But I'm not sure where else to post it - Biggio is 4 hits shy of 3,000 and the Rocks head into Minute Maid on Thursday.

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Jun 25, 2007 12:55 PM MDT 0 recs

Question

What makes anyone think anything will be done before the trade deadline? Last year we were 44-40 at the break and in better shape than now. They did absolutely nothing. O'Dowd said there was no room on the 40 man but we hung on to Choo Freeman. IMO if they do anything it will be dumpster diving hoping to get lucky. Nothing to lose by giving Jimenez a shot and if Cook doesn't turn it around we're pretty much done anyway.

by DieHardRoxFan on Jun 25, 2007 2:16 PM MDT 0 recs

Better shape than now?

I don't disagree with anything else you say except for this, last season's 44-40 mark was driven largely by performances from players like Jason Smith and Jamey Carroll that couldn't realistically be considered able to maintain them. The same goes with the unbelievable luck of the pitching staff in the early going, particularly at Coors Field. This season, I think it's harder to say that anybody besides Rodrigo Lopez is drastically out-performing their talent and we have a few like Atkins and Cook who have probably been underperforming.

I definitely don't think we're worse off than last year, the talent of the team suggests at least a small step up. That said, I think you're right about the Rockies not making any splash at the deadline. Scrapheap pitching pick-ups or a reserve left handed bat might be acquired, but that's it.

by Rox Girl on Jun 25, 2007 2:26 PM MDT up 0 recs

Are we close enough...

to being playoff contenders to make more than scrapheap pick-ups? This organization doesn't have a track record of being contenders to take "gambles" on front-line free agents.

Shipping out prospects, even if they are fringe prospects, for rental players doesn't make any sense if we realistically are looking at finishing a handful of games out of the playoffs.

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Jun 25, 2007 2:56 PM MDT up 0 recs

I would say yes

if we could finish a handful of games out of the playoffs, it meant we were in a playoff race. Which would be great, and put a lot of buts in the seats, so adding either a good player or a scrape-heap with potential type guy would be worth a fringe prospect (or 2) IMHO.

For the right guy (one that would stick around next year) I'd trade a better then fringe prospect.

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club!

by Redhawk on Jun 25, 2007 3:17 PM MDT up 0 recs

We are in worse shape this year.....

if you consider the strength of the division. It appears it will take 90 wins to take the NL West this year, and perhaps 87 or 88 wins to get the Wild Card. Last year, the NL West was there for the taking, and we failed to act.

This year, the NL West is a much tougher division, so even if we win more games than last year, we could finish more games out of first place.

Hence, I see no major moves at the deadline this year. Same as it ever was.....

by Roxpert on Jun 25, 2007 3:32 PM MDT up 0 recs

Far from the same

Yes it will be quiet at the deadline as it has been in the past, but the situation that we have is far from the same. The talent is far better and we are in a better position to get to the playoffs. In the past we have had a bunch of AAA or over the hill players just taking up space.

Here is the roster from 2002

C Gary Bennett/Bobby Estalella
1B Helton
2B Brent Butler/Terry Shumpert
3B Todd Zeile
SS Juan Uribe/Shumpert
LF Todd Hollandsworth/ Jay Payton
CF Juan Pierre
RF Larry Walker

SP Jennings
SP Hampton
SP Neagle
SP Chacon
SP Thomson

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Jun 25, 2007 4:00 PM MDT 0 recs