Trade Rumors

by DaleCoop14 on Jul 16, 2007 3:20 PM MDT Comment 31 comments

Hello Purple Row. I am a Brew Crew Ball reader on a stroll through SB Nation. There was a trade rumor mentioned on our end that I wanted to get your feedback on.

The rumor, based on perhaps highly questionable sources, involved the Crew sending Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, and Kevin Mench to the Rockies for Matt Holliday.

The consensus, though not strong, was that this would be too much to give up for someone who is rather unspectacular away from Coors Field. A few people thought we should take the risk to shore up the middle of our order.

I'm interested to hear how this trade would be received on your end.

Thanks for the input, and good luck the rest of the way, as long as you don't run up against the Brewers again.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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There are people here...

who are much more knowledgable than I am, but I will say that it would not be received well at all. First, it would be a sign that the management isn't willing/able to pay to keep talent here. Second, regardless of whether you view Holliday's road stats as an indicator as to how he would perform for another ballclub (this is certainly debatable), he is spectactular for the Rockies at Coors and would represent a serious loss to the Rockies and Capuano, Bush and Mench won't make up for that loss.

I'd say fans, in general, would be screaming--some are still screaming about the Jennings trade and the Rockies fleeced the Astros there. Trading Holliday for that package would be a horrible PR blunder for the Rockies--I just can't see them doing it.

by DenverBears on Jul 16, 2007 3:49 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

while Holliday does show a significant split, his numbers are actually trending upward, and his current road line of .299/.355/.478 still represents a solid season for most all left fielders in baseball.

Beyond the PR disaster, the package just doesn't stack up. If the Rockies put Matt Holliday on the market this off-season, they could easily surpass this offering from Milwaukee.

While both Capuano and Bush could be useful, neither his having a season befitting their expectations, and Mench is a disaster of a player. Trading two underperforming yet solid mid/lower rotation starters and a back up left fielder/DH for a player with a VORP ranking second for all left fielders and is seen by some as the current face of the organization would be insulting to all Rockies fans.

The Rockies are two years away from entertaining any trade offers for Holliday.

by David OhNo on Jul 16, 2007 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

That's a curious one.

It'd be absolutely shocking if that happened, for one thing. The PR department would be having nightmares dealing with the casual fan's discontent, but it's not all together a horrible proposal. I do think that you all are falling victim of the old Coors field bias, because Holliday is not just a Coors field creation.

I'm a big fan of Capuano, and think he's a great man to throw in at the top of the rotation. We're not talking ace by any means, but he's a hell of a pitcher when he's going. Bush is a bit of a schizo with his performances, but he'd fit in well at the back end of the rotation. Mench is relatively worthless.

I might be able to talk myself into that one if the rest of the road trip goes completely south. Even then, that's a hard sell.

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Jul 16, 2007 4:40 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Unlikely

I am inclined to believe that this trade would be exceedingly unlikely on both ends. From the Brewers end, having just lost Sheets to the DL, it would probably not be a wise time to trade our (potentially) 2nd and 3rd best starters.

I agree that Holliday is quite valuable at Coors Field. There is a decent chance he would also be quite valuable at Miller Park. However, if you just take the road stats quoted by David OhNo above (.299/.355/.478), he begins to look remarkably similar to Corey Hart. It is probably for this reason that Brewers fans, like you folks, are not overly excited about such a deal.

by DaleCoop14 on Jul 16, 2007 5:40 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Ignoring the rest of it

Matt Holliday is a different class of hitter than Corey Hart. Period.

I haven't even been a huge Holliday fan his first few years but the way that he has continued to develop his approach at the plate and improve his abilities has turned him into one of the better hitters in the game.

It is only a matter of time before the rest of the country figures this out.

by MADness on Jul 16, 2007 10:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Holliday is the SAME class of hitter as Hart

Well, I would listen to your argument for this... if you made one. Verbalizing your punctaution does not count as proof. I would argue that the comparison is actually quite reasonable. Let's see... Hart is two years younger, so let's compare his 2006 and 2007 seasons with Holliday's 2004 and 2005.

Hart '06: .283/.328/.468 26 AB/HR 17/58 BB/K 5 SB
Holliday '04: .290/.349/.488 29 AB/HR 31/86 BB/K 3 SB

Hart '07: .299/.367/.523 20 AB/HR 24/48 BB/K 16 SB
Holliday '05: .307/.361/.505 25 AB/HR 36/79 BB/K 14 SB

Wow. This is turning out to be a lot more similar than even I expected. What about minor league record?

Hart MiLB Totals: .299/.356/.498 28 AB/HR 212/497 BB/K 131 SB
Holliday MiLB Totals: .275/.352/.424 36 AB/HR 260/438 BB/K 68

I'd say it is hardly a supportable statement to claim that Holliday is a different class of hitter than Corey Hart, though I am still willing to listen to your reasons for making this claim.

Neither one was an uber-prospect to be sure, but both have developed quite nicely into star-quality MLB regulars. The only argument to be made is that Holliday has developed steadily over the last two years, but given their similar successes in the past and Hart's edge in power at an earlier age, it is certainly not unreasonable to think that Corey can be a star in much the same way as Matt Holliday.

This is not a new revelation for Brewers fans. Most of us agreed that Hart would have a legitimate chance of replacing a large portion of the offense that Carlos Lee had provided. We are happy to see that this was in fact the case, but most of us are not overly surprised. So I guess you could say, it is only a matter of time before the rest of the country figures this out.

by DaleCoop14 on Jul 17, 2007 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then we can reimagine the trade.

We'll take Capuano, Bush, and Hart... you can have Holliday and Fuentes. Sound good?

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Jul 17, 2007 12:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I imagine that Rockies fans would enjoy that...

...even if it took a few months to appreciate what a fleecing it was.

Brewers fans, and baseball people in general would be scratching their heads and wondering why the Brewers tossed away their season in one of the great lopsided trades of all time.

by DaleCoop14 on Jul 17, 2007 1:25 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm assuming

this means you are laughing at the idea of Hart being in the same class of hitters despite their eerily similar statistics throughout their careers?

I really just want someone -- anyone -- to explain why Holliday is so much more godly than Hart, apart from him being a Rocky.

I will admit to being a homer and overhyping a Brewer if someone can just make any sort of argument that this is the case...

by DaleCoop14 on Jul 17, 2007 1:29 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hart is nice but...

I think it is premature to put the two in the same class. It is certainly very possible that Hart continues to improve upon his impressive early performance and becomes godly like Holliday.

But history is littered with players who started their career strong but failed to take it to the highest level. Maybe they got too comfortable, maybe they didn't have the drive, or their bodies broke down. But right now, Hart simply hasn't had the chance to establish a track record to put him in the same class.

Not sure if you are a fantasy player, but if so, what round does Holliday go in next year? Early to mid 2nd round. Hart? 4th to 6th. It's the track record that distinguishes the two in my eyes.

VORP also distinguishes the two this year. HOlliday is ranked 15th, Hart is ranked 54th overall.

by Roberbola on Jul 17, 2007 1:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you for the logical response.

I agree with you 100% on these points: Holliday is more valuable at this moment. Hart may never be as valuable as Holliday.

Like I mentioned, Holliday's big advantage is that in the past two years, he has continued to get better, perhaps approaching his 'peak' or 'plateau' in the next year or two.

Hart is two years behind, but his career trajectory is nearly identical, right down to performance at each age level. He is a toolsy player who has shown steady improvement, just like Holliday. I am not claiming that Hart definitely WILL be Holliday's equivalent, but it seems unfair to deny that there is a STRONG possibility of this happening. Just as there is a SMALL possibility of Holliday dropping off a bit.

As for value comparisons, The Hardball Times provides data on Win Shares and Win Share Pct. which accounts for playing time. Since Hart did not start the season as an everyday player (for some strange reason), he has about 100 fewer ABs than Holliday. Even so, Hart has 12 WS to Holliday's 14. This includes .5 more defensive Win Shares for Hart despite only 70% of the playing time. (VORP does not account for defense). Hart's WSP is .816 to Holliday's .665.

Hart may not yet be exactly on par with Holliday, but the comparison is not unreasonable.

by DaleCoop14 on Jul 17, 2007 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now that

you've talked up how great Hart is, do you understand how your earlier/original comment on Holliday of:

"The consensus, though not strong, was that this would be too much to give up for someone who is rather unspectacular away from Coors Field. A few people thought we should take the risk to shore up the middle of our order."

Might have struck Rockie fans as odd at best, un-informed or possibly insulting at worst?

If you want Holliday, get in line, and pay the big Boras fuel Free Agency bucks he will get after the 09 season (or was that 08...I'm working to hard). Until then, he's a top 15 player in the league, which is well, rare cause there is only 15 of em.

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club! Still waiting for Broncos training camp.

by Redhawk on Jul 17, 2007 2:50 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to admit...

I do not even see the connection. I have pointed out that Hart is very similar to Holliday at the same stage (with a significantly stronger Minor League resume including several full, strong seasons at AAA compared to zero for Holliday.) That being said, I do of course, respect Holliday's abilities and numbers (and hope that Hart continues to follow his trajectory.)

And yet, I don't think any MLB team would just automatically ship off two solid starting pitchers for one very strong OF without looking into other possibilities.

Would the Twins ship off Bonser and Baker? Would the Indians offer Carmona and Lee? Would the Devil Rays give up Shields and Sonnanstine? Maybe you could get Rich Hill and Ted Lilly from the Cubs or Gorzelanny and Duke from the Pirates. But you know what? I doubt that any of these trades would go down. Because these teams would find it difficult to fill the void left by two solid starters.

In other words, I cannot IMAGINE why this hesitation would "have struck Rockie fans as odd at best, un-informed or possibly insulting at worst?"

by DaleCoop14 on Jul 17, 2007 3:19 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you'll concede my point that

the stats you mention were put up in only 250 at bats. I just won't hang my hat on such a small sample size. Not yet, anyway. Based on his performance to date, there is a STRONG possibility that he will be above average. I won't go any further than that. This isn't a Pujols-esqe career start we're talking about here.

I think some of the negativity you see here is jealousy stemming from the possibility that one of your complementary players might be approaching the level our best player in a couple of years. You do have a very nice team to root for indeed.

And regarding your original trade deal, swap Mench for Weeks and I'd do that today.

by Roberbola on Jul 17, 2007 3:24 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Concession

Yes. A small sample size in the majors and a very large sample size in the minors. I am making no claims of a Pujols-esque career for Hart, and I would hope you are not comparing Holliday to Pujols either.

On your other point, I didn't really mean to make this a Holliday vs. Hart comparison. I have tried to make it clear that I will be overjoyed if Hart follows in Holliday's footsteps, and have only claimed that there is a reasonable possiblity of this happening.

As for your updated trade, Mench clearly is a toss-in in this deal and is hardly worth a mention. Whether you add in Weeks or not, my point remains the same: no matter how good the offensive upgrade we receive, it may not be worth it to decimate what is currently a solidly above-average pitching staff, turning it into what would likely be a solidly below average pitching staff, unless our young prospects (Gallardo, Parra, Villanueva) immediately panned out as #2 and #3 pitchers. I am not attempting to denounce Holliday.

The Rockies seem poised to put up some strong teams over the next several years. As strong as our young infield is, yours certainly rivals it. And your OF easily surpasses ours right now.

Our pitching would seem to be the one place we have you clearly outmatched, but the other side of this trade is that there is nothing to say that Capuano and homer-happy Bush would not completely self-destruct at Coors Field and enter early retirement.

I appreciate the thoughtful responses, Roberbola. Maybe you can explain to a few others here that I am not trying to be insulting, only to obtain a different viewpoint. (Of course, you are likely to get a similar array of responses if you post on the Brewers' site. What can ya do? :-P )

by DaleCoop14 on Jul 17, 2007 4:05 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

what about holliday 06 and 07 stats

i bet his are better

by roxfan4life on Jul 17, 2007 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rate stats

I am guessing that you used rate stats rather than season totals in order to disguise the fact that Hart has yet to establish himself as an every day player in the big leagues for a full season.

That right there is why the two players being discussed are viewed differently - one has established himself as an every day major league player and has been fully exposed to the league and been forced to make adjustments and the other is a part time player who still needs to prove that he can maintain those rates over 500+ at bats in the big leagues.

I am not criticizing Hart but at this point he simply hasn't proven that he can perform at the same level if he is run out there every day for an entire season.

by MADness on Jul 17, 2007 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just thought I'd point this out real quick

seeing as our Brewer fan seems to be in love with the home/road numbers...Hart is hitting .248 on the road and a full 100 points higher at home (.348).

Up in the Rockies

by rockiesfan06 on Jul 17, 2007 3:36 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Time-out

I don't mean to attack Hart though I do admit I was going after dalecooper a bit.

There are a lot of reasons for this speculated trade to not happen but Matt Holliday not being an impact bat isn't one of them.

by MADness on Jul 17, 2007 3:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

holliday is a fan favorite here

and the rox are still contenders partly cause of him it would be suicide for them to rid holliday. fans would never go to coors again until the monforts sold.

IT WOULD NEVER HAPPEN

by roxfan4life on Jul 16, 2007 5:59 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Um no way in hell

During the season anyway.

Fist off. Mench sucks. (I'm sure there are nicer ways to say it and stats to back up my stance, but he's not even as good as our #4 OF Ryan Spillbourghs)

Holliday for Capuano isn't going to fly at all on either end. Yeah, the Brewers get a legit middle of the order bat, but the Rockies loose one. How do the Rockies replace Holliday? Holliday (or any position player while the Rockies pretend to be in a play off race won't work) And gain, a back of or middle of the Rotation pitcher? This doesn't even out at all. Sure the Brewers need to make a rotation spot for their hot rookie, but like every year, just wait, Sheets will be hurt...oh wait there he goes again. Which kills 2 rotation guys from the Brewers.

Now maybe if Sheets is back fast, I can see a Fuentes for Capuano trade....but I'd rather have Dave Bush. Capuano and Bush for Fuentes and Josh Fogg, I'd do in a heart beat!

Treasurer of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club! Still waiting for Broncos training camp.

by Redhawk on Jul 16, 2007 6:14 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't want Holliday? How about Chase Utley?

He's hitting .269/.348/.467, even worse than Holliday's road line. But if he was traded to Milwuakee, it is highly unlike that anyone would care about or mention his home/road split. How about Mark Teixeira? He seems due for a big pay day at the end of the year, yet nobody seems to care about his .268 average on the road (versus .342 at home). Plenty of great players in baseball hit better at home, yet those that do at Coors are the only ones that are held accountable for it. To justify trading for Holliday with a package like Capuano, Bush, and Mench is crazy in my opinion. Even more crazy is the fact that Brewers fans seem to think THEY are the ones getting the short end of the stick on a deal like this.

Up in the Rockies

by rockiesfan06 on Jul 16, 2007 6:52 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Being reasonable

So much for using reason. Would we trade Capuano and Bush for Utley? We'd have to consider it, seeing as 2B has been our one glaring weakness on offense so far. And clearly there is no one in the same league when it comes to 2B. But even then, we would be decimating our rotation and counting on rookie arms to pick up the slack. In Utley's case, it may be worth the risk.

Would the Brewers ever in a million years give up Capuano and Bush for Teixeira? No. That doesn't mean he is not good. It means we do not improve with that trade, unless of course he is willing and able to move back to the outfield. And even then, his VORP or improvement over the current LF situation is nowhere near as great as that of Utley.

Is Holliday a star? Yes. Is any team going to offer 2/5 of their starting rotation including one All-Star and one potential All-Star based on peripherals? Maybe, maybe not. But probably not. That does not mean Holliday is not respected. It merely means that he may not be worth TWO solid middle-of-the-rotation starters. I would argue that unless a team has an absurd wealth of quality starting pitching, almost no hitter is worth decimating your pitching staff over.

Before you make fun of us crazy Brewers fans, consider that it is possible for a trade to help or hurt both teams... in other words, there isn't always just ONE short end of the stick.

by DaleCoop14 on Jul 17, 2007 11:02 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Overvaluing Capuano and Bush

You keep talking about how it is absolutely insane for the Brewers to give up "two-fifths of their rotation" in the middle of a playoff race. But does it really hurt that much when their ERAs are 4.84 and 5.16? You have Gallardo (whose "rookie arm" I would take over Capuano's for the rest of the season) to replace one of them immediately should you make this deal. Bush has a 0.7 VORP, which makes him essentially replacement level. So by "decimating" your pitching staff, you would only need to slide Gallardo into the rotation and find a REPLACEMENT LEVEL starter to replace Bush and you'd be a whole Rickie Weeks --> Chase Utley upgrade on the plus side! You're loco if you don't think that the Brewers wouldn't trade these two for Utley. They wouldn't even think twice, they wouldn't even hesitate, they would do the deal as quickly as they can.

Up in the Rockies

by rockiesfan06 on Jul 17, 2007 3:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not psychic

I don't know what the Brewers would do but during that series with the Phillies it got me thinking a lot about how Utley might just be the best player in baseball relative to the 2nd best player at his position.

Not sure if that makes sense how I said it but if you take the drop-off between Utley and the next best 2nd baseman can you find any other position where the drop-off is that large between #1 and #2?

I suppose I should go look up his vorp or whatever compared to other 2nd basemen.

by MADness on Jul 17, 2007 3:38 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that there probably isn't much more to be

said here, except that Capuano and Bush are better than their 2007 performance indicates. This is obviously being factored in to Mr. Cooper's thinking. To throw out YTD 2007 figures on clearly underachieving players is a little misleading without including some context.

I agree that as a Brewer fan, Mr. Cooper is overvaluing his own players a bit, as we are all prone to do. That said, given Holliday's likely price tag going forward and the upgrade and depth that Bush and Capuano would provide our rotation over the next several years, I would consider the deal. I'd want to know more about their contract status and scouting reports, but it is intriguing to have two pitchers I consider as potential #2 - #3 starters given the prices being paid for garbage out on the free agent market.

by Roberbola on Jul 17, 2007 4:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last thing I'll say

I'm going to respect David OhNo's request for this thread to die after this, but I just wanted to state that he seemed to be referring to Bush and Capuano's departure greatly affecting the 2007 Brewers performance, hence I was only referring to how the 2007 Bush and 2007 Capuano had been performing and helping the 2007 Brewers. I realize that in the past, Capuano and Bush have shown better than 2007.

Up in the Rockies

by rockiesfan06 on Jul 17, 2007 5:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs