Saturday Pebble Report:

by Rox Girl on Aug 4, 2007 5:45 AM MDT in Rockpile

Colorado Springs: The five walks and two wild pitches belied some jitters for Franklin Morales in his AAA debut, and of course raise a caution for what we should look out for going forward, but he was otherwise dominant in his first start for the Sky Sox. Morales allowed four hits to Round Rock, all singles except for a double by Quintero, and induced a pair of double plays to help eliminate the threats he walked aboard. He struck out seven in six innings of work for the victory. Jayson Nix and Seth Smith both homered and had multi-hit games for the Sox. The two combined to drive in six of Colorado Springs' seven runs.

Tulsa: The Drillers walked off from a wild eleven to ten victory over Springfield thanks to a Tommy Duenas homerun in the bottom of the ninth. Jonathan Herrera scored three times, as he Christian Colonel and Aaron Rifkin all had multiple hits in the game. Rifkin hit a three run shot in the second inning to help keep Tulsa close in the slugfest. Ching Lung Lo got shelled for seven runs in five innings and thirteen hits allowed.

Modesto: We've given a lot of cred to Eric Young, Chris Nelson and Jeff Kindel for Modesto's surge this summer, but yesterday the trio combined to go one for eight (Kindel didn't play) yet Modesto still won six to three, showing that there's a lot more going on than just those three. Props yesterday go to Jose Valdez and Justin Nelson who scored four of Modesto's six runs, as well as Nick Haley and Kyle Blumenthal who drove in four. Alan Johnson pitched eight innings with a 14/5 GB/FB ratio on his outs for his eleventh victory of the year.

Asheville: Esmil Rogers continued his stellar season with another quality start for the Tourists, and the bats backed him up in a ten to three win over Delmarva. This was actually Rogers' first win on the road this year, and he's had an odd reverse split given how hitter friendly his home stadium is. Geoff Strickland, Michael Paulk and Michael McKenry were the Tourists to get more than one hit. Paulk had a homerun and double for his two hits, and McKenry had four hits to improve the look of his road performance this year.

Tri-City: Bruce Billings' undoing was the homerun ball, he allowed three in just over five innings at Everett and four runs, or he otherwise would have another nifty looking performance under his belt with seven strikeouts and no walks. Billings now has a 55/5 K/BB rate in 44 innings, which is very good, but the 7 HR he adds to that is definitely a troubling aspect of his performance to date. Brian Rike and Kevin Clark each had two hits for the Dust-Devils.

Casper: Casper's game was postponed by rain.

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I just noticed...

that Seth Smith has been playing a lot of CF lately. Has anyone watched him? Is he capable of playing CF in the big leagues? If so, I think this could help out the log jam in the OF--I love the idea of a Holliday/Smith/Hawpe and Spilly OF--at least offensively.

by DenverBears on Aug 4, 2007 6:48 AM MDT reply actions

Reports are good....

I think he's at least capable of playing CF as Spilly (all 3 positions but maybe ultimately better in CF no more than 2-3 games per week).

I dunno though, that's been my impression based on the reports I've heard.

Ultimately, Tavarez is our best defensive CF until Fowler or one of the MI get converted (Hererra, Nelson, EY Jr., Wimberly).

Smith is going to be up for sure in September and for the remainder of this season, would essentially give us two "Spillies" which is a very good thing to have. This could ultimately force Baker to be traded in the offseason.

by sg8335aa on Aug 4, 2007 8:08 AM MDT up reply actions

Better yet, lefty Spilly

Ultimately, Smith is best suited for a corner spot. He's solidly built, not to the extent of Holliday, and in Tulsa he looked no more than average defensively in right field. However, I heared Gustafson on the radio say the team has really pushed Smith to improve defensively and he was responding well. With more work, he could be Ryan Church-esque defensively.

by David OhNo on Aug 4, 2007 8:43 AM MDT up reply actions

The team seems to be pushing him

To be ready to take over Cory Sullivan's bench role for next season, or perhaps even the post-season this year should we get that far. We'd be sacrificing a lot of defense in a limited bench role for much more offensive flexibility that could be used at any time. I'm a big fan of having players like Church or Spilborghs or Smith on hand. I really think that having the left handed bats of Smith and Stewart available off the bench in September will be a huge boost to this team.

by Rox Girl on Aug 4, 2007 9:44 AM MDT up reply actions

Roe had a stiff neck

the other night, which affected his ability to check the runner. He should make his next start.

"Don't give up the ship!" - Capt. James Lawrence

by Russ Oates on Aug 4, 2007 8:40 AM MDT reply actions

A note on Billings

I believe it's the Prospectus guys that say to destinguish your real "control/power" prospects from your guys that are just more polished than their level, you look at the homer rate. Basically, the question is, "what happens to the guy when he misses his spot or does git hit?" In Hynick's case, he's managed to limit damage of the balls put in play by keeping in the yard in a hitter's league. Though Hynick may not have big stuff, he's still a big prospect thanks to his control, pitchability, and damage control.

Billings, on the other hand, may look good peripherally, but the homer rate suggests his stuff isn't superior to the league as much as his pitchability is. You have to wonder if this gimmick will work at higher levels.

He probably won't make my final Purp's list, on the other hand, teammate Darin Holcomb will...

by David OhNo on Aug 4, 2007 8:52 AM MDT reply actions

Exactly,

You look at some of the other control guys in the system who don't rely on overpowering stuff -like Hynick or Alan Johnson at Modesto- and you'll note that the HR/9 rates were microscopic at the lower levels. Johnson had a 0.11 HR/9 at Casper and Hynick a 0.42. Billings' is over 3.00 at Tri-City, which makes his prospect status iffy at best. I've been impressed with Holcomb, Everth Cabrera and Brian Rike at Tri-City, as well as Cory Riordan once he settled in, but nobody else is really pushing into my attention right now. I'd rate my Tri-City top five like this:

Cabrera
Holcomb
Riordan
Rike
Helder Velazquez

Michael Mitchell's speed intrigues me, and I'm hopeful of some of the raw power pitchers like Duarte, Fabian and Riquy Pena, but there's just so much projection and so little in the way of results with this team and Casper's as well right now.

by Rox Girl on Aug 4, 2007 10:04 AM MDT up reply actions

I think you're using the wrong numbers

here for Billings' HR/9. He's allowed seven homers in 44 innings, which comes out to ~1.43 HR/9. You're calculating his ERA when you say his HR/9 is over 3.

"Don't give up the ship!" - Capt. James Lawrence

by Russ Oates on Aug 4, 2007 10:13 AM MDT up reply actions

thanks

I definitely looked at the wrong column to throw my numbers way off. 1.42 is still quite high, paricularly for the league he plays in and his age, however.

by Rox Girl on Aug 4, 2007 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions

No debating that. The number

is two-tenths of a point better than what Aaron Marsden put up in 2004 with Asheville. Though I remember you saying that most of the 30 homers Marsden allowed with Asheville was the result of pitching at McCormick Field.

"Don't give up the ship!" - Capt. James Lawrence

by Russ Oates on Aug 4, 2007 10:42 AM MDT up reply actions

HOW DO THE HOME RUN RATIOS WORK THIS YEAR.....

for starting pitchers at Colorado Springs and Asheville....the 2 launch pads in the organization?

by 86 wins in 07 on Aug 4, 2007 1:12 PM MDT reply actions

Seth Smith

I could easily see Smith getting more time with the big club to improve his defense in the outfield based on the experience with Holiday for one and similarly the experience of Chris Duncan for the Cardinals last year. Duncan made some bad plays through the playoffs for the Cards last year, but his work with the bat down the stretch and the playoffs more than made up for his D and from what I've seen he's improved coniderably this year.

by raoulduke1977 on Aug 4, 2007 3:44 PM MDT reply actions