After last night's loss, the odds of the Rockies making the playoffs as the Wild Card went down to single digits, while the Phillies' chance went up a bit more than the Rockies' went down. But the Padres have a 37% chance of winning the Wild Card. They still fall .8 short of the average number of wins put up by the NL Wild Card winner in the simulation with 87.1 average wins. The Rockies do come out one average win better than the fourth position has averaged with 84.5.
With a 9.56% chance of winning the Wild Card, the Rockies will need to start this seven-game home stand off right with a sweep of the Marlins to hang in there. It's also, as the title of this piece indicates, the end of a stretch where the Rockies played their last two non-playoff contending teams. After the Marlins leave, it's straight through the NL West for the Rockies: vs. Dodgers, @Padres, @Dodgers, vs. D'Backs. The double-header that starts off the last thirteen games looks to be a tipping point since that'll set the tone for the last two weeks of the season. With Mark Redman starting the regularly scheduled game on Tuesday, we'll want his Wednesday relief appearance to carry over to that game. Oh, we'll also need Francis to rebound in the first game on Tuesday. Can't have our ace follow up last night's lackluster performance with another stinker.