Friday Pebble Report

I think it's foolish to overanalyze Morales at this point anyways.  For one, he's two years younger than Jimenez, Ubaldo had about a year more time in AA, and a year more time in AAA than Morales.  Franklin has had roughly 2/3 of a season above High A in the minors, where Jimenez had 2 seasons worth of minor league action above High A before call-up.  Thus, just based on development time, Jimenez should look like the better pro.  Really, given Jimenez service time above High A, he had to start showing something at the pro level or he'd lose some luster on that star.  Thankfully, he's been better than advertised, but just because he has doesn't mean that Morales should be as well.

It's been well noted that Morales was rushed to the bigs and hadn't finished his development time.  I supported and still support his call-up, if only because the team lacked alternatives and Morales had the stuff to get by at the major league level.  Morales command wasn't ready for the big leagues, and it's shown, but that doesn't mean that this 21 year old is no less a prospect.

Rather than worry about Morales not hitting 97 mph (if you did your homerwork and watched the future's game, you'd see it, and if you attended any of his AA games, you'd have seen it), we should be more encouraged about the vast differences in speeds of his pitches.  In one at bat, Morales can throw a 69-72 mph big breaking curveball, a 79-80 mph change up with good fade, an 88-91 mph sinking two seam with movement that rivals Cook (59% GB rate), and a 95 mph+ four seam fastball.  That's almost a difference of ten mph in all four of his pitches.  This is what's so exciting about Morales.

The breakdown right now is comming with control and command.  He can't get the change up down at the moment, and when consistently thrown to the arm side, the fade keeps it out of the zone.  The curve's big break gets low strikes, but also his fair share of low ball calls.  The sinker is probably his best pitch, and he's kept it down for the most part, but this is the only pitch he has average command on, so when it goes, he really gets himself in trouble.  The four seam has been elevated lately, and he rarely has had command of this pitch at the pro level.

His struggles with command are most likely hampering his "luck" stats.  His BABIP is too high, as is his HR/9, and I believe that a lot of this has to do with having to over-rely on the two seam and leaving it over the plate too much.  If he could just gain confidence and slow his mechanics down, he could have more success with his other stuff.

At 21 years old, he has plenty of time to figure it out, and according to Goldstein, it takes lefties longer to grasp control of their stuff than righties.  If anything, his taste of the bigs will do him good, as he'll know his flaws and work to correct them this off-season and next pre-season.  It remains to be seen if Colorado can afford the luxury of giving him more minor league work next season, and a couple of months honing the command of his change and four seam will complete the package.

Obviously, he's not in the same class as Jimenez at the moment, but giving his development time, we shouldn't expect it.  However, I do expect him to rival Jimenez in his age 23 season.  

The quality of his wide array of pitches, his groundball tendencies, and tender age all point to a pitcher that's still the best mound prospect in the system (Jimenez will be graduating).  

It's WAAAAAYYY too early to get down on this guy.