Tulo too high?
by HiAspire on Jan 21, 2008 1:45 PM MST
33 comments
The big Tulowitzki contract will obviously be viewed as a very positive move by the Rockies fanbase that already loves Tulo and was skeptical ownership would invest to keep guys like him, but there are some points to the contrary also that suggest we may have jumped the gun here unnecessarily.
According to reports, "it'd be the largest deal ever for a player with less than two years of service time, eclipsing the one Grady Sizemore signed two years ago."
Largest contract ever for a player of this experience level? I love Tulo and all, but that may be stretching things a bit. At least we can't be accused of being cheap here.
Tulo has an amazing gun and range in the field, but for these prices he needs to become one of our offensive leaders also. If it is only defense in the hole you crave, you can find an all-glove journeyman with a lesser bat for much less cabbage. You could even get arguably the best defensive SS, Adam Everett, who was non-tendered by his former team and could have easily been signed by anyone to a one-year deal for $2-3 million or so.
Maybe Tulo becomes the very best in the field now, but the point remains that it certainly doesn't take $30 million and a long commitment to buy yourself good defense. And rightfully so, the Rox don't want him for just the glove/arm either -- nor should they if they are going to sign him to a record breaking deal. They view him as a strong young hitter who will play a key role in their offense also, as well as being a team leader and the face of the franchise for years ahead. He could not only be one of the best fielders, but also put up some of the best offensive numbers at his position as well. That's expecting a lot, but on first impressions it seems quite possible. He's certainly worth going all out to keep him here.
But right now to such a large deal, and before he's further proven himself at the plate?
To me, Tulo doesn't seem like a player who would develop bad feelings toward the franchise if they didn't give him a monster deal early in his career (actually quite the opposite as a real team player). Maybe the additional money he's getting in the next few seasons would have been better invested in a top reliever to supplement the team's playoff run while they still have Holliday and Tulo inexpensively.
While quite possibly good for the long-term, it doesn't seem like the best way to optimize the team for a playoff run in 2008 and 2009 before you might lose your MVP. By then, you would be looking at raises for Tulo in arbitration and could use Holliday's money to sign him to that big deal. On the other hand, if they wait perhaps they don't get him for near today's price if he keeps progressing. But players don't always improve...
Angel Berroa won Rookie of the Year in 2003, hitting .287 with 17 HRs. That's just a bit below Tulo in Coors Field his rookie year at the plate. KC gave him a nice 4-year contract in 2004 where he'll earn nearly $5M this upcoming season and nearly $6M next year. Was that a good investment as the Royals recently designated him for assignment and he spends most of his seasons now in AAA? Tulo's certainly better than him in many ways, but on a smaller scale the Royals invested prematurely in their rookie award winner at SS also which turned out to be a poor decision. Sometimes it is better to wait and see how things develop before writing the check, especially when you are a franchise on tighter budgets.
But I can't criticize the Rockies too much here. This does feel like progress, and I will enjoy having Tulo around for years. There is another side to consider, though, and it is possible that this will not look like such a good deal down the road as it seems today -- especially if Tulo regresses at the plate and we are left praising him for his defense alone when writing those big checks while other teams can pick up the Adam Everetts of the world without too much trouble.
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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Good points
Add this to the goodwill credit the Rockies will get with their fans for committing to one of their young stars long term, and I think it becomes a definite win for the franchise.
by Rox Girl on Jan 21, 2008 2:04 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
I don't entirely disagree
After signing Holliday to a 2-year deal and Cook also, I don't know if they need a lot of PR boosting at the moment. Ownership will never be very popular, but there isn't a lot to be unhappy about now as a Rockies fan coming off the best season ever.
If it was mostly for goodwill, there may have been other times to drop that big news on the fans and cushion future losses. I guess it could also help build positive momentum now, but I don't think anyone thought he was going anywhere anytime soon anyway.
It becomes a brilliant move if Tulo lives up to his potential and becomes an elite shortstop both in the field and at the plate, and similarly helps the franchise sell tickets and merchandise and is another Helton for them but with his prime ahead of him. Signing elite young players before they reach the height of their success can turn into a real jackpot.
He hit several dry-spells at the plate this first season, though, and if he doesn't become a force with the bat also then this deal could look very different down the line.
To me, I would have waited on Tulo. Not that I don't trust his development or love his game so far, but just that there was no reason really not to and we can't afford to make those financial mistakes. I don't think Tulo will be one and am personally glad to see the kid rewarded, but this definitely adds some pressure there for both him and the franchise.
by HiAspire on Jan 21, 2008 2:40 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Goodwill cannot be underestimated....
Considering there are potential replacements in the system for Fuentes, Atkins and Hawpe.....the Rockies wanted to create enough "good will" to justify dealing some of the above names to create space for guys like Stewart, Baker, Smith...etc.
by sg8335aa on Jan 21, 2008 2:42 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Lazy fans
Did no one read the scouting reports when he came out of college or as he rocketed through the minor leagues?
An example (from the official site at the time of Tulo's being drafted):
"Big, strong, well proportioned physique. Similar to Bobby Crosby. Excellent bat speed. Aggressive hitter w/ good extension. Soft, quick hands, average runner. Solid ML defensive tools w/ a chance to hit with power. Shows no glaring weakness."
Despite getting off to a slow start at the plate, being a 22 year old rookie with minimal minor league experience and bouncing around in the batting order Tulo still had one of the best offensive years for a rookie shortstop in NL history.
I swear - first people say his bat is too good and he is too big and he will have to move to 3rd and then he plays GG caliber defense at SS and gets a reputation as a gritty leader and all of a sudden people start calling him an 'all-glove shortstop' and comparing him to Adam Everett?
by MADness on Jan 21, 2008 4:57 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Lazy?
I'm a big fan of Tulo myself, but that doesn't mean I'll suspend all realism there either as I celebrate the signing. We are talking about the most money a rookie has ever received in history here for a franchise that has made many financial mistakes and when they happen it has crippled operations. Nothing to give any additional thought to?
There are hundreds of players in Baseball America prospect guides over the years with lofty offensive potential projections, but not all of them live up to potential. Payment is for performance, not just potential of course. It's definitely there in the field, but also arguably not as strong at the plate for this kind of record-breaking commitment.
I very positively referred to Tulo's offensive potential there as well in my own comments saying he possibly could be an elite SS both at the plate and in the field. He isn't now, though, is he? It's still potential for the most part in terms of making a big difference with his bat.
He had a solid first season on the whole offensively (especially for a rookie) but it wasn't without some concern either. As I pointed out, there have been other ROY winners who put up similar or possibly better offensive numbers at the plate (considering stadium effects), and many teams have made huge mistakes by assuming a player would improve or get better instead of showing some patience before writing a massive check first. Why rush that?
Is there any possibility that Tulo doesn't become a very strong hitter? I hope not, but sure there is. One inconsistent year at the plate isn't enough to warrant a record-breaking contract in my opinion. Especially when there was no pressing reason to make that commitment now. He's not going anywhere, and the team might have better used a couple more million to help the squad defend their pennant while Holliday was still around.
We can just assume he'll be fantastic at the plate too and pay him for that potential, but for right now he isn't despite his already fantastic glove. The glove alone isn't worth the record-breaking money as noted unless his bat reaches it's hyped potential also. That's all. My question is more a matter of timing and priorities at this point. Tulo wasn't going anywhere and does need to still prove himself at the plate at the big league level.
by HiAspire on Jan 21, 2008 5:53 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Everett
by HiAspire on Jan 21, 2008 6:00 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
tulo has a bat and a glove
by RockiesFan on Jan 21, 2008 9:31 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think this debate is
I do like the fact though that management has started to spend a little money on this current team. I think too many fans are basing our future off of our farm system, and are critical of any spending that we do. The future is just that, the future and we still do not know what those players holds, but we are the current NL champions so I think we need to take advantage of our current opportunities
by 4atjc4 on Jan 21, 2008 9:48 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Quite unusual
On the surface, it looks like they are spending more on this team as noted -- but on the contrary they are actually getting less talent on the 2008 roster for the buck compared to keeping Tulo at his second year salary and adding another veteran contributor possibly instead. They weren't going to lose Tulo or fracture the relationship if they didn't pay him millions more right now.
Comments before stressed the importance of goodwill, and maybe more fans will transform their opinions of the organization and forget past doubts about spending due to this. It's going to be old news probably by the time Holliday could be packing his bags in a year or two, and that's going to bring that anger back anyway. Signing Tulo then instead (after he's also more proven) would be more impactful in diverting that negative emotion than it alters things now when everybody's happy. And who knows how Tulo's contract will look when it's time to ante up the really big dough for Holliday. If he's still mostly just hitting in Coors and hasn't become as strong an offensive threat, it could be seen as more of a negative contract at that point and those have hindered them in the past.
Although the possibility remains the Tulo may not pan out at the plate as many of his fans believe he will, it's not even really about that. Tulo isn't a bad bet.
It is just a very UNUSUAL situation. Isn't it?
You don't see rookies get big contracts well before arbitration. As noted, this is the biggest ever for a player with less than 2 years. That just doesn't seem to fit. Not us just emerging from past financial troubles with long-term deals that didn't work out as hoped. Not Tulo particularly as a player who HASN'T hit his potential at the plate yet (which normally triggers the dollars) and most of his numbers have come in a very hitter friendly park so far. His biggest impact has been defensively so far, and that also is unusual for the highest deal ever for such a player.
Unusual doesn't have to be bad. Tulo may very well be something amazingly special and worthy of that unique treatment that has happened to nobody else in the game's history. He certainly has a chance of that, but he STILL would have had the same chance of future success even if we hadn't giving him all his money before he had further proven that.
Maybe it is unusual enough that it shatters skeptical fans opinions about the organization as they win more hearts back. That could make it worth it possibly. To me, I think they largely get a pass anyway this off-season with all the post-season excitement and the real test will be later on down the line when things calm down and new challenges faced. They've sold most of their new season tickets already from that playoff run to get much more out of the Tulo news. It does keep some positive momentum going, though, but at a pretty high cost and increased risk arguably.
by HiAspire on Jan 21, 2008 11:57 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
motivation
by roxfan4life on Jan 22, 2008 1:24 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I just can't agree
For this deal to sour on the Rox, an age 23 player will have to regress SIGNIFICANTLY with his bat, or he'd have to get injured a hell of a lot. The upside is, if he does get better (a very reasonable bet over the course of the deal given his age) it becomes incredibly great. So, for this deal to be good for the Rox, very little has to go right, so there is little downside, but there is still HUGE upside.
Sure, it's larger than any other such deal. This is due to inflation, which in baseball salaries has been very high, and due to the fact that other deals like this (like Sizemore's) turned into huge steals for the orginization.
Despite it's record setting nature, for six years it's the same as two years of Helton's contract. Not exactly franshise wreaking even if (knocking on wood) Tulo gets hit by a bus and never plays another baseball game again.
by Dieb on Jan 22, 2008 3:10 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Just stays the same
Contracts will keep growing, and that's true about inflation and the growth of revenues in the game, but Sizemore's wasn't generations ago and if you consider that most of Tulo's offense was largely in our hitter's park I don't think that his production outdistanced everyone before him to be the highest compensated.
Is it also not going to have an effect on agents for our other youngsters looking to get financial assurances before they normally would after proven themselves further?
It isn't a huge issue, and I am glad he'll be around, but it also raises some questions that many Rox fans will ignore now in glee but could come back to bite them hard and impact other things down the road.
It's not the end of the world for the Royals either that Angel Berroa's career went off track after they gave him his multi-year deal coming off a ROY season. They'll flush several million down the drain in the next few seasons because of it, but it's not a total disaster for them either. Just a lost opportunity to use those wasted funds elsewhere. That's another pitcher they could have afforded under budget otherwise.
For teams like us on smaller budgets there is less wiggle room for mistakes, and jumping the gun to give unproven players huge contracts before you need to creates that additional risk.
If Tulo struggles at the plate in upcoming seasons and didn't get this guaranteed money ahead of time would he shatter any arbitration award records? That's doubtful. He probabably is just getting started on a great career. I don't disagree but not sure why we've already paid him like it's a foregone conclusion.
It's all a gamble on future expectations, and we'll see if the Rox were wise to lock him up now or if they unneccessarily jumped the gun when there were other pressing priorities. They are betting on Tulo, and that's not a bad bet at all. But they would still have him (and maybe additional funds for Holliday long-term or another pitcher added) without the additional risk without this very early extension.
by HiAspire on Jan 22, 2008 8:56 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Value
24 home runs and 99 RBI is a middle of the order type of bat. He has already produced at a high level offensively for a shortstop, even if he has already peaked.
Tulo had the 6th highest OPS of major league shortstops as a rookie - higher than guys like Miguel Tejada and Jose Reyes and 2 thousandths behind Jeter.
Tulo is an offensive shortstop with power who also happens to play gold glove caliber defense. His performance in college and his performance at every level of pro baseball (whether adjusted for things like age or park factors or not) has proven that.
by MADness on Jan 22, 2008 6:07 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
I just don't see how the facts (or scouting reports or actual on field results) can lead you to believe that anything short of a crippling/career ending injury can make Tulo worth less than what this contract will pay him in any given year.
by MADness on Jan 22, 2008 6:15 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I'm saying
That's what I'm saying.
RE: I just don't see how the facts (or scouting reports or actual on field results) can lead you to believe that anything short of a crippling/career ending injury can make Tulo worth less than what this contract will pay him in any given year.
If he has a sophomore slump at the plate (certainly not unheard of and especially not after a long season), and just never quite realizes his offensive potential and is primarily just a great defensive shortstop down the road with just okay Coors-aided numbers at the plate then he would be vastly over-paid when considering the market for defensive assets. He just doesn't have to just stay healthy to be worth $30 million. We wouldn't give that money to a defensive specialist. We need him to bring a big stick also if we are going to pay him more than anyone ever has been coming off their rookie season.
Tulo only hit .256 away from Coors, and most of the happy comments about his first year offense came by hitting in Coors Field where he has a skewed home/away split. He was benched at least once for offensive struggles and to try to get back on track (not unusual for a rookie, but he's not without some unanswered questions there either). He had some very memorable hits that were timely that make his offensive production seem better than it might be objectively otherwise on the whole.
He hit .195 in the post-season, and just about lead the team in strikeouts in the playoffs. I don't mean to sound like I'm bashing the guy as I really am a fan of his overall. Just trying to explain why I'm just not going to assume everything will be fine (or fantastic) with him at the plate. KC thought that too when they gave Berroa a nice contract after his rookie of the year season. Things don't always get better and sometimes teams do throw millions of dollars away on unneccessary decisions.
I do think he'll eventually answer some of the remaining questions about his offensive, but there is no guarantee of that. The Rockies already have paid on that guarantee, though, because they aren't going to give just a good glove record-setting money. Great glove and just staying healthy isn't worth $30M. They expect him to be a key offensive contributor also for the dough.
I personally would have waited to make sure some of those offensive questions had worked themselves out before guaranteeing him $30M, especially when he is still a ways away from arbitration and nobody in the game had ever gotten that high of a contract that early in their careers.
by HiAspire on Jan 22, 2008 11:12 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Unusual?
Frankly, a contract like this offends me less than one that pays a fast fading player big money with no real hope that he will ever repeat his past glories (Ivan Rodriguez?). And, unfortunately, I think it's a trend we'll continue to see in baseball in the near term, as signing bonuses increase and teams chase younger and younger talent. Hey, if the Florida Marlins can pay a 16-year old Cabrera $1.8 million before he's ever taken a collegiate or professional swing of the bat, is it really that risky to pay our guy Tulo, who's had demonstrated success with the bat and the glove at every level?
by hobgoblin on Jan 22, 2008 7:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely...
by MattTheRock on Jan 23, 2008 6:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
It's going to eventually be $8-10M a year
If (and it is just an "if") Tulo doesn't develop into a consistently strong hitter (as he wasn't on the road or in the playoffs), are we still going to be saying it's a great deal when he's getting $8-10 million a year for a couple of seasons?
It is fine now, but those are really big numbers to GUARANTEE him right now. It's the kind of backloading that can get a team into trouble if a player doesn't live up to expectations.
by HiAspire on Jan 23, 2008 9:30 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Sample size
by MADness on Jan 23, 2008 10:00 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
RE: Sample size
Tulo's home/away splits are more significant than his smaller sample playoff struggles at the plate in my mind. But in any case with Tulo EVERYTHING is going to be a small sample case study. Normally in those situations there needs to be more caution instead of rushing to conclusions just yet before more evidence is demonstrated.
by HiAspire on Jan 23, 2008 10:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Compared to Sizemore
03/29/06: Signed six-year, $23.45 million contract w/2012 option. 2007: $750,000, 2008: $3 million, 2009: $4.6 million, 2010: $5.6 million, 2011: $7.5 million, 2012: $8.5 million club option w/$500,000 buyout
His last guaranteed season pays him $7.5 million at the most but he's under $5M for most of it. Tulo will have a couple of seasons well above that in his backloaded years and his option is twice that of Sizemore's to keep him around that extra season.
Sure there will be inflation (although it was less than 2 years ago), but Sizemore's seems much more reasonable and he's probably a better bet in terms of offensive contribution where the big bucks are typically generated and the price tag for defense isn't that high on the market. Marketing-wise, they are similar type assets for their organizations.
The Rockies were miserable for years while cleaning house and clearing out some bad commitments. They got their clean slate and a chance to start over. Tulo's deal is celebrated now to most, but add a sophomore slump plus some additional pressure heaped on to live up to the large commitment and it can start to look like a repeat of some backloaded blunders they didn't have to get themselves into just yet.
Hopefully not, and now that the final details are out I'm about done with the topic, but I just wanted to sound some caution also amongst all the champaign popping over this.
The Rockies stressed PATIENCE for years, but aren't showing it here and it could bite them. Even if we expand to payrolls upwards of $80-100M overall by the time Tulo's money explodes, he's still going to be making 10% or more of the overall budget possibly in those years. And it can't be just for defense at those prices at that time. Kid's got to hit, and not just in Coors for that kind of cash.
by HiAspire on Jan 23, 2008 10:12 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Sizemore
by LarryB303 on Jan 24, 2008 12:39 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
L/R versus H/A
Some lefty bats will always have a more difficult time against their fellow hurlers. If you are a good lefty reliever, you can stay in this game a very long time just for those advantageous situations.
That is also something that experience might help you with more, as more adjustments can be made in those matchup approaches with skills gained arguably than just a transition from one stadium to another on the road.
I find more questionmarks related to players with large Coors Field aided splits than others here maybe. To me, that's something to be concerned about until proven otherwise by hitting more on the road too. We've seen too many hitters propped up by the favorable environment here to not have some caution there when they perform much worse away from Coors.
Even if we assume Sizemore/Tulo to be exactly equal values, Sizemore isn't getting anything near $10M a season like Tulo will be guaranteed before this is done. Sizemore maxes out at $7.5M and is under $5.5 every year otherwise. Tulo has at least two seasons higher than any of Sizemore's and a significantly worse option where Sizemore would be very likely to be picked up and Tulo very unlikely.
I know most here are probably okay paying Tulo $8.5 or $10 or even $15 mil a year (to pick up his option) because they are infatuated with his play right now and glad owners are finally spending again to keep him. But he wasn't leaving so why would we GUARANTEE him those huge financial future seasons right now after only 1 season just as we as just getting out from under years of speculative back-loaded contracts that hindered us previously. $8.5 and $10M a season isn't to be taken lightly by any means if he doesn't pan out. Those are huge losses for those future years in that case against tight budgets.
We haven't paid any other of our youngsters after their rookie season like this (nobody in history has to this level). Francis had to wait another year more reasonably. Same with everyone else who got multi-year deals recently.
Is there no possibility that Franklin Morales, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Ian Stewart don't SURPASS what Tulo did? If Tulo slumps and one of those players outshine him early in their own careers, do we not pay them after their rookie seasons also and even higher? Or does just Tulo get that? Certainly their agents would like to know in such instances.
The Rockies preached PATIENCE for years, but didn't show any here in paying him now before they had to or most teams would. Braun isn't getting this from the Brewers, nor has anybody else in the history of the game. Is it going to be no big deal to pay Tulo $8.5M and then $10M per year down the road? It depends, but we're locked into that now so the pressure's on.
by HiAspire on Jan 24, 2008 2:09 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still not buying what you're selling
Why? Well, if the gamble fails, you get Angel Berroa's situation. And that sucks. But what if Tulo continues to mature and gets even better? The gamble pays off big time and the Rockies benefit greatly (the degree of which is obviously dependent on how good he gets, and how quickly). -Given the way salaries tend to rise if teams go year-to-year, by the time he reaches his later arb years the contract will probably be underpaying him a little when you factor in inflation and the fact that he plays a premium defensive position. Thus the total value of the contract will almost definitely be at or below what they would have had to pay him by going year to year. So they save money.
-They've also bought out his first year of free agency (and the second via the option), which is critical.
-They've avoided arbitration, which creates goodwill, which is worth something.
-They've put on a dog and pony show for the always-critical fans, which is also worth something.
So like I said, of course it's risky. It sort of goes against the principle of patience you keep bringing up. But DOD wouldn't just throw this money around on a whim. I think we've seen very clearly since about 2003 that this organization takes budgetary discipline very seriously. What's the team's most questionable financial decision in the last five years? Signing BK Kim last spring? when he clearly was going to be a jerk if he didn't start? Not hiring good enough lawyers to get Denny Neagle's contract voided? There really aren't too many nominees. The front office has been stingy these last few years, but they've also been smart. As you point out, this deal only adds one (or two) years to the length of time the team controls Tulo. So why extend it to him? Clearly this only happened because ownership is as close as possible to 100% sure that he's going to significantly improve and make the gamble pay off. And that's the point I'm trying to make that I feel you're not acknowledging- if Tulo follows a reasonably successful trajectory, the Rockies reap some substantial benefits here.
2. The H/R thing- first of all, not enough mention is made of the fact that the Rockies play about 3/8ths of their road games at AT&T, Dodger Stadium, and Petco. That's going to drag down everyone's splits. Using stats that account for park factors are critical for something like this. And last year, although his raw road OPS was almost below the .700 mark, his road OPS+ was 94. Not the makings of a slugger, but nothing to sneeze at either. If it doesn't improve in coming years, it'll hurt his value and reduce the odds that the Rockies' gamble pays off. But given the way he improved throughout the course of his rookie season, and his well documented devotion to self-improvement, I wouldn't be shocked if it doesn't increase substantially in 2008 and continue to do so in years beyond. As a side note, he also drew more walks on the road than at home in basically the same number of PAs, which is encouraging.
Your response to my point about Sizemore's struggles against lefties his 2005 season doesn't make any sense to me. I don't see how you're refuting my point. I acknowledge that hitting against certain pitchers is a learnable skill. But then you also correctly say "Some lefty bats will always have a more difficult time against their fellow hurlers. If you are a good lefty reliever, you can stay in this game a very long time just for those advantageous situations." Well, yeah. That's why OPSing .660 against them as a lefty hitter makes you a big liability for your team. Sizemore has improved in this regard, so that's great for the Indians. But what if he hadn't? What if now, in 2008, they were on the verge of platooning him against lefty starters? That would make their investment a problematic one. And at the time they signed him, their concerns about his performance in L/L situations can't be considered to be much different than our worries about Tulo's H/R problems. You hope he's going to break out of it. But what if he doesn't? When you're Cleveland or Colorado, you might have to take the gamble anyways. That's baseball in this era.
- I understand what you're saying about this setting an odd precedent for other up-and-coming players. But for whatever reason, shortstops are generally looked at as more "cornerstoney" than pitchers or third basemen. And again, if those guys do start playing like stars when they're still in their arb years, they will be paid accordingly. Tulo's not going to be making more money than them. The difference is, he's guaranteed to be paid like a young star for the next 6 years. If they want that kind of money, they'll have to earn it. Am I saying by way of this that Tulo has nothing to work towards now? Well, besides personal achievement and accolades, and a potentially even huger free agent contract after 2013, I guess not. But that's how sports contracts work. Todd could have mailed it in when he signed his gigantic deal. I don't think that's exactly what happened. Most pro athletes are intensely type A. They want to win for the sake of winning and play well for the sake of playing well. Tulo definitely seems like that kind of guy. Albert Belle, Carl Pavano, or Juan Gonzalez he is not.
- Comparing Braun and Tulo right now is silly. Tulo has a full year plus a September under his belt. It's not much, but it's relatively much more than the 110 games Braun has. Who's to say the Brewers won't do this sort of thing after this coming season? And not to be overly sarcastic, but there's also this one other little issue you might have heard about. Braun doesn't even have a position to play, and Tulo is already one of the best defenders in the league at the most important position on the field. I think that matters just a little bit.
by LarryB303 on Jan 24, 2008 3:36 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Huge Gamble
You may not be buying it as mentioned, but our views aren't that far apart if you also see this as a "huge gamble" as mentioned. That's what I'm saying. And questioning if this is the best time to get back into making big gambles.
RE: And that's the point I'm trying to make that I feel you're not acknowledging- if Tulo follows a reasonably successful trajectory, the Rockies reap some substantial benefits here.
Then you'll be happy to know that I have acknowledged that and even said this myself much earlier here: "Signing elite young players before they reach the height of their success can turn into a real jackpot."
You are categorizing it as a gamble, and that's what I'm trying to emphasize also. We are in much agreement there.
A lot of fans who love Tulo are just jazzed and emphasize the goodwill of it and can't see anything negative there, but in that jubilation there is not enough focus on the fact that this is a GAMBLE. We've gambled a lot and don't have the best track record there when the stakes are high.
It is a roll of the dice whether Tulo will be a $10M per season player as we are guaranteeing him down the road. Maybe he's worth more like Helton's 17M by that point and we come out smelling like a rose. But maybe not, and if not it isn't nearly as small a deal as KC's blunder with Berroa or others of much less early financial commitment. You have to multiply those kinds of things by several factos if it happened here. It is a pretty significant gamble when talking about those large paydays down the line.
Should we jump right back into the gambling business now? The plan has been slow and steady progress in recent seasons and not over-reacting too much with players in their early development.
My focus is more organizational than thinking poorly of Tulo. In their glee, they've given him several guaranteed huge checks and done more for him at his early development stage than anyone in the game's history.
Hopefully this agreed gamble doesn't turn out badly for them as some others have. Even if it doesn't, I'd still advise to wait more than 1 year before putting so much on the line as there isn't a lot of reason not to.
by HiAspire on Jan 24, 2008 2:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
There's a gamble...
I think you have no idea just how good offensivley Tulo was last year. He was probably the fifth best shortstop last season offensivley. I believe he was fourth in VORP and OPS+ (both of which take into account Coors), he was only a little ahead of Reyes in both categories though, and as neither takes into account Reyes' value on the basepaths, he probably edges Tulo at the plate.
Again though, the main point is that there is significant risk for waiting a year as well. I wouldn't be surprised if Tulo went into a bit of a sophmore slump next year. But he's never going to be "all glove no bat" like you make out. And I also wouldn't be surprised if Tulo was the best overall shorstop in baseball next year.
by Dieb on Jan 24, 2008 5:14 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
In Coors
In Coors: .326 hitter with 15 HRs.
Away from Coors: .256 hitter with .327 OBP and 9 HR.
Post-season: .195, 15Ks, 41 ABs
A large home/away split for a Coors Field hitter probably doesn't matter to everyone, but I'd like to see a guy hit on the road before assuming he's going to be a strong hitter in the future and guaranteeing him $8.5-10M a year after one rookie season where he was inconsistent at the plate.
I don't really think there was much risk involved in waiting another year, and certainly there would seem to be more risk in guaranteeing a rookie $31M. He demolished the previous financial record this time, so I don't think the deal next season would have been night and day different unless he started to look like the second coming of A-Rod at the plate.
Waiting another year or so is how it works for everyone else in baseball. Nobody gets monster deals after their rookie season, and for the very rare few who do get such an early check they aren't nearly the size of Tulo's guarantees. It shattered previous examples, as if they had to over-pay to lure Mike Hampton to Coors Field again or something.
People talk about how great it is they bought him out of a future free agent years, but those back-loaded years are the ones where they've exposed themselves to the most risk with his salary exploding into double-digit millions a year.
Everyone speaks highly of Tulo's character and leadership as they rightfully should, but at the same time do they expect him to become a jerk next year if he didn't get a record-setting deal as a rookie and not negotiate next off-season in a more traditional manner?
There have been dozens of top rookies over the years who didn't get such massive deals after one season and followed the normal progression of talking about those types of long-term commitments after the player has put at least two good seasons together and everyone is very comfortable with the relationship.
The Rockies are already secure that he's going to be a $10M player in 2013 and a $15M player in 2014 if they want to pick up that option there. That's a bit hasty to commit those kinds of figures IMO, but time will tell the tale there on whether it was a good gamble or another case of poor judgement on back-loaded contracts that gets them into trouble again down the road.
by HiAspire on Jan 24, 2008 10:04 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Beating a dead horse
You never addressed what I said about road numbers accumulated by Rockies players. Using park adjusted stats is a must. A road OPS+ of 94 is pretty good for a shortstop. I think that qualifies as "hitting on the road." The previous responder also made this point, but you're really going over the top in portraying him as an all glove guy. And talking about how good glove shortstops are cheap doesn't convince me of much. Sure, we could get a Chris Burke for $3 million a year. That's half of what we're paying Tulo, and now we have 3 crappy hitters (I like Yorvit a lot, but I'll go ahead and call him crappy at the same time) in the lineup instead of 2. Tulo value at the plate is actually pretty substantial because he's a shortstop.
Worrying about his postseason performance is ridiculous.
You are seriously downplaying the value of buying out free agent years, even if they are at large salaries. Factoring in inflation, those salaries aren't going to be as massive as you are making them sound. I would gladly pay Holliday $18 million to have him under contract for 2010 right now. That's obviously not congruous to the Tulo deal, since Matt is more established, but the general point holds true.
You're also overly downplaying the previous poster's point about risk in not locking him up. Should he put in a better 2008 than 2007, which is definitely possible, his price for a deal like this could skyrocket. The Yankees just gave Cano $30 million to buy out 4 years of arbitration. (I realize I just made a point about how big market teams don't do this, but the Cano deal is totally unprecedented for them.) If you use that as a model, should Tulo have a good 2008, it might cost as much as $40 million plus to get him inked through one year of free agency like this deal does.
You also didn't address my point about how stingy the francise has been since 2003ish. They just don't put money into something unless they're damn sure of it. Therefore... you make the connection. Could they be wrong? Yeah. But watching Tulo's preformace in the bigs so far, I really don't think it's going to happen.
by LarryB303 on Jan 24, 2008 10:44 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty good for a SS
I'm not sure if you want me to answer some of the questions posed or not beat the horse any more as noted. But I'm not ducking anything or avoiding any points made.
I'm not downplaying the value of buying those future free agent years. I'm disagreeing. I'm saying he has improve at the plate or else nobody would pay him $10 and $15 million a year to hit .256 away from Coors for mostly the glove and intangibles otherwise. Those future years will be huge negatives instead of things to celebrate now unless he fully realizes his potential and keeps improving as hoped. The Rockies themselves know he needs to be more consistent at the plate, and fully believe he can. They have a ton of faith in him, and that's great. They could have still had faith in him, though, still without promising him double-digit millions per year later just yet.
It depends upon what kind of an investor you are. Would you rather get in on the ground floor and invest a huge sum of money on a very speculative business that hadn't completed all it's research yet, or would you rather wait until those reports came back and the future was more certain before you took out a second mortgage and put your financial future into it? There are all kinds.
You seem to trust the organization a little more here in part because they've been so thrifty otherwise so they must be so sure about this, but I'd say their long-term history also suggests that they often get overly excited at times about something and then throw parades for players that end up becoming disasters later because not enough attention was paid to the possible downside of that speculation with backloaded deals that burry them later when those feelings change.
by HiAspire on Jan 24, 2008 11:52 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Other Comparisons
From that article, I wouldn't quite call it conservative to put Tulo in the middle between Jeter and Tejada for the financial conclusions. By the time THEY would have been free agents for the free agent money comparison both of them had already put up multiple huge seasons, and that's still just hope/speculation for Tulo down the road which is more optimistic than conservative IMO.
I like the comparison angle, though, which is also mentioned on the front page here now.
by HiAspire on Jan 26, 2008 2:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Compare to elite youngsters who did get paid early
ALBERT PUJOLS
First year out of the gate he put up numbers that Tulo may never reach (.329 average, .399 OBP, 1.009 OPS, and 37 HRs). No record breaking contract for him then or any grand commitment to a rookie. What an outrage! Next year he backs that up with similar production (.314, .394OBP, .955 OPS, 34 HRs). Still no huge contract despite arguably one of the best starts to a career ever that far surpasses just about everything. He goes out in 2003 and hits 43 HRs with 1.106 OPS. Okay... NOW we'll give you a deal after you've done this for 3 straight seasons and we are into the arbitration process. He signs pretty reasonably for someone with his historic track record at that time. He makes $16 for just about every year down the stretch of that deal with a $16M option year in 2011 which is just about the same as Tulo's option to keep him another season. Did the Cardinals have no shot at signing Pujols long-term if they didn't do it immediately after his rookie season?
DEREK JETER
Even with the Yankee's money and Jeter's early career heroics in rebuilding a champion to the delight of millions of loyal fans who forever love him, he didn't get his big deal until just a year before free agency. That's after multiple all-star appearances and finishing in the top 10 multiple times of the MVP voting.
GRADY SIZEMORE
As already discussed, he's somewhat similar in value to Tulo in his organization and arguably a better hitter than Tulo (where most of the money is generated in the market for this industry). This is what he got for the seasons ahead which was the highest contract ever for someone at this level until Tulo put pen to paper recently.
First year over 750K early seasons: $3M ($3.5M for Tulo)
Next year: $4.6M ($5.5M for Tulo)
Next year: $5.6M ($8.5M for Tulo)
Last Guaranteed Season: $7.5M ($10M for Tulo)
Club Options: $8.5M ($15M option for Tulo)
Tulo's really explodes in the final seasons while Sizemore's stays more reasonably controlled with less risk. Who knows which player will be better or mean more to their team, but the Indians have less risk there probably for these two highest deals.
NOMAR GARCIAPARRA (the young BoSox version)
Nomar meant so much to the Red Sox back in the mid-to-late 90s when he was a god there. Tulo will probably have somewhat of the same treatment here by adoring fans who love the way he plays. Grady Sizemore broke Nomar's 1998 early commitment record when he signed his deal, but Nomar's stood for nearly a decade before Sizemore. All Nomar did to get his early deal was to finish 2nd in the MVP voting, and was an all-star Rookie of the Year and finished 8th in the MVP voting the season before that. He hit .323 with 35 HRs in 1998, giving him two seasons with over 30 HRs and over .300 average when he got his record money.
JHONNY PERALTA
As reported before the 2006 season, "While the base is less than the $15.5 million base Peralta's teammate, Victor Martinez, pulled in last spring with his five-year deal, it's worth noting that Peralta will be receiving the second-highest salary among pre-arbitration shortstops in Major League history. Only Nomar Garciaparra... from the Red Sox in 1998, made more before arbitration than Peralta will." Peralta got that deal after hitting .292 with .366 OBP and 24 HRs.
Tulo in 2007: .291 /.359 obp / .838 slg / 24hr
Peralta 2005: .292 /.366 obp / .885 slg / 24hr
Yikes those numbers look similar. After that he hits .257 in 2006 with 13 HRs and only .323 OBP and .708 OPS. In 2007, he's at .270 with 21 HRs so up a little again but not quite like he was in the season that brought the paychecks. But it is so easy to get too excited about a player after one year, give them a huge check that tops what anybody else is getting, and then watch their numbers decline. The Indians aren't too much on the hook for their 20HR shortstop, though, as they'll only be paying him $2.5M, $3.4, and $4.6 guaranteed money in future season with a $7M option. Tulo, of course, is guaranteed multiples of that and is off to a similar start offensively that gave Peralta his lesser deal.
JOSE REYES
His 4-year $23M deal is similar to Tulo's in many ways for the two young shortstops with high potential. Reyes didn't get his contract until near the end of the 2006 season after making his debut in 2003. He hit .300 in 2006 with 19 HRs and 64 SB and started to look like he was headed for superstardom. After the big commitment, he dips down to .280 with 12 HRs in 2007, tempering the excitement somewhat about guaranteeing the big money.
ANGEL BERROA
Wins Rookie of the Year from SS position hitting .287 with 17 HRs. KC gives him a 4-year $11M deal afterwards that paid him $3.25M in 2007, $4.75M in 2008, and $5.5M option in 2009 and a $500K buyout. After his production completely disappeared, they tried to get rid of him by designating him for assignment but couldn't completely cut ties because of the money involved so he's their AAA shortstop primarily now while they write those checks.
I took a turn toward young SSs who got paid earlier there, but we could go on about other elite hitters who DIDN'T get a huge deal after their rookie or even 2nd MLB seasons who were probably more deserving. Some of them maybe should have (or in many cases did agree to longer commitments later in more typical fashion), but some others who did definitely saw their team's investment go up in smoke or at least look now like unadvised decisions that were made before they should have been as lost gambles.
by HiAspire on Jan 26, 2008 2:28 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Peralta correction
Tulo in 2007: .291 .359 obp / .838 OPS / 24hr
Peralta 2005: .292 /.366 obp / .885 OPS / 24hr
After that on 03/10/06 he signed five-year, $13 million contract w/2011 option. 2007: $750,000, 2008: $2.25 million, 2009: $3.4 million, 2010: $4.6 million, 2011: $7 million club option w$250,000 buyout.
I'd like Tulo better after both their very similar seasons too (especially in the field and intangibles), but I'm not sure about more than doubling that in comparing what Peralta did to get his versus Tulo in Coors with nearly identical numbers at the plate when each signed their big deals.
by HiAspire on Jan 26, 2008 3:02 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
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