Wednesday Morning Rockpile:

by Rox Girl on Jan 23, 2008 5:25 AM MST in Rockpile

I'm going to have to put this up quickly, but I'll be back with more stuff later this morning.

Troy Renck tells aout how Ubaldo Jimenez has put on fifteen pounds and seems aware that control is holding him back from the next level. Holliday was right in that our season in 2008 depends largely on how Jimenez and Morales develop, with Greg Reynolds being the largely unnoticed plan B.

The Rockies will announce Troy Tulowitzki's deal today after he takes (and passes presumably) his physical. Jack Etkin also notes the addition of one more Spring game against the Mexican National all star team that the official site announced yesterday.

Bernie Lincicome spouts some more stuff about things he doesn't really grasp, this time having to do with the Rockies, I think. Last season was thrilling, our September comeback highly unlikely, but I really don't believe it could be called a fluke.

Update [2008-1-23 13:29:54 by Rox Girl]:

David Pinto evaluated our offense using the Marcels projection and his own lineup tool. We come out alright, but as a matter of full disclosure I'm willing to bet that the lineup included Marcus Giles at second rather than Jayson Nix, who I know wouldn't project well. That's okay, I think Giles' Marcels projection might be a semi-accurate estimation of where I feel Nix will actually wind up in wOBA, which means I take this as a fairly realistic look at our team's offense heading into Spring. Keep in mind that the Rockies gain a lot more from their bench than other NL West squads -Smith, Spilborghs, Stewart and Iannetta all have strong projections- that won't be reflected in a look at solely the starting nine.

Tweet Comment 27 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I don't understand.

There is something wrong with the game when a team is written off solely because of it's lack of spendability.

Of course Lincicome comes off as a person that didn't watch the Rockies play all season and just needed filler for his column today so I don't put much stock into anything he says.

by belt on Jan 23, 2008 8:03 AM MST reply actions

Bernie, Bernie, Bernie

Geez, what dweeb. But I should expect no better. He's been writing like this since he came to town. Is too late to ask Bob Kravitz to come back?

2007 NL Champions, baby!

by rockhead on Jan 23, 2008 8:30 AM MST reply actions

The kicker to me is

Lincicome is a paid professional sports columnist....and people like Rox Girl, and Russ, and Silverblood, and well, I could list a half dozen others here...are far more knowledgeable, and write GOODER, but they are just "amateurs". Too bad these bloggers are from the great unwashed masses of amateurs who live in their momma's basement, and have no real skill. Maybe if they were paid professionals like Lincicome, they would have seen how Jimmy Rolins was the NL MVP and Ryan Braun was the NL Rookie of the Year, like the real writers with legit credentials did. (note sarcasm in the last 2 lines...sarcasm rarely works online)

The internet is a great thing when it works like it does here @the Row. Screw Bernie...and Woody Paige as well.

2006 TIME magazine "Person of the Year"

by Redhawk on Jan 23, 2008 9:23 AM MST reply actions

I just got back

from Carlisle, Pennsylvania, otherwise known as the middle of nowhere. About the only thing to do at night is to go to the bars in what counts as downtown. I was there with five friends, and when we were walking to a second bar we started talking baseball. One of the guys, already drunk, told me that the Rockies' late-season run was a fluke.

Think about it . . .

"Don't give up the ship!" - Capt. James Lawrence

by Russ Oates on Jan 23, 2008 8:55 PM MST up reply actions

Surely,

that sort of run of luck needs divine inspiration. So no longer can fans diss the "Colorado Christians" baseball team, as it clearly gets results.

:: Takes tongue out of cheek ::

I guess this sort of attitude is to be expected when people only know the Rockies as cellar dwellers who needed to win 14 of 15 just to make the playoffs since they didn't see them play all season.

by Kindred @ Purple Row on Jan 24, 2008 1:31 PM MST up reply actions

Lincicome

>>> The planets won't always align and the umpires won't be conveniently blind and pennant winners can't play from ambush. It is a serious thing to be taken seriously, as the Rockies now must be taken.

I'm going to try and put this into plain English, cause I don't think it was originally written on planet Earth. He's saying that the Rockies only won because 1) cosmic influence caused balls to bounce their way, 2) umpires were blind and didn't make the right calls, and 3) nobody expected them to be good so their opponents played down to them all year.

BUT! The Rockies must now be taken seriously, because despite all of this, they are a good team.

...they are a good team that had good luck that won't be repeated, and they can't expect to win like they did, even though they should be taken seriously...

Whoever hired this guy at RMN needs to be fired.

by oo_nrb on Jan 23, 2008 11:45 AM MST reply actions

Kizla

reads like Frank Deford compared with this guy.

Is it spring training yet?

by SpongeDan on Jan 23, 2008 12:44 PM MST reply actions

Top 11 Prospects from Kevin Goldstein

of Baseball Prospectus.

Five-Star Prospects

1. Franklin Morales, LHP

Four-Star Prospects

Chris Nelson, SS
Greg Reynolds, RHP
Casey Weathers, RHP
Dexter Fowler, CF

Three-Star Prospects

Ian Stewart, 3B
Hector Gomez, SS
Brandon Hynick, RHP
Juan Morillo, RHP

Two-Star Prospects

Jayson Nix, 2B
Brian Rike, OF

Just Missing: Chaz Roe, RHP; Seth Smith, OF; Pedro Strop, RHP

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7069

Interesting that he ranked Nelson, Reynolds and Weathers higher than Stewart, Fowler and Gomez.
No idea why he ranked Nix so high.

by malakian on Jan 23, 2008 1:31 PM MST reply actions

Speaking of Baseball Prospectus

And Greg Reynolds who I mentioned above, Nate Silver says PECOTA agrees:

Particularly, Clay has completely redone his translations, and as I teased a couple of years ago, we're now considering a player's draft slot in making a projection. PECOTA still has a few house favorites -- Greg Reynolds, apparently, is the sleeper prospect of the year if he can stay healthy -- but for the most part the degree of agreement between the Upside rankings and Kevin's Top 100 is going to be pretty eerie.

Reynolds is one of the reasons why I think Rockies 2008 won't experience the kind of drop-off some people are projecting.

by Rox Girl on Jan 23, 2008 1:51 PM MST up reply actions

Where was I reading

that I saw where Greg Reynolds was ahead of schedule in his rehab and very well could be ready for the start of Spring Training?

If true, I think you have to consider him a darkhorse to win the fifth starter role simply based on his combination of polish/talent/moxie. He completely won me over to the point that I felt his inclusion in a Haren trade would be a deal breaker for me, and I really like him to peg that 3rd starter projection AT THE LEAST.

Also, both Goldstein and BA have now considered Reynolds' curve ball to be a plus offering, where coming out of college it was only considered above average or "occasionally flashing plus." While he doesn't have the K numbers everyone craves, they weren't awful, and he absolutely carved up the Texas League when healthy.

Healthy is the only question mark on this guy right now.

by David OhNo on Jan 23, 2008 5:12 PM MST up reply actions

Thomas Harding's most recent Q and A

At the official site is what said it. And I feel okay now in saying that it's something someone with the organization who saw him recently told me as well. Reynolds is really a darkhorse out of Spring Training, but it seems that he won't be sitting long in Colorado Springs and he might even get called up before Morales if Frankie can't find the control right away.

by Rox Girl on Jan 23, 2008 6:25 PM MST up reply actions

Greg is close...

It's hard to believe he was in the same draft as Tim Linsacum. But he could be facing against the Giant by the end of the season.

There's only one Rocktober!!

by Charlie77 on Jan 23, 2008 11:34 PM MST up reply actions

Man...

Stewart seems low. Suppose the last part of the season soured a lot of people on him, but even then.

Waiting for the second coming of Kaz...

by MattTheRock on Jan 23, 2008 6:24 PM MST up reply actions

BP

The actually writeup on BP doesn't say anything about his performance in MLB last season except that it's going to be less likely that he starts because of it. The reason they marked him down is for his average defense, and poor road performance in AAA.

by belt on Jan 23, 2008 7:21 PM MST up reply actions

Actually...

I was really wondering about the defense comments in the article. Rox Girl seems to be really high on his defense, and while I'd trust her opinion more, I wonder where BP got "average" from.

"I want to live forever or die trying" Yossarian in "Catch-22"

by Dieb on Jan 23, 2008 7:44 PM MST up reply actions

Goldstein

has always been hard on Stewart.

Stewart has certainly helped matters by not staying on his blistering pace, but Goldstein has been especially critical of his performances of late.

The defensive report is simply not true. Stewart has very good athleticism for a third baseman, and is capable of playing a bit deeper at the position to exploit his arm. He will get careless on routine plays, but his actual range will be well above average for the big league level. Remember in last year's list Goldstein only considered Tulowtizki has above average defensively in every category, which simply went against what we were seeing in Double A.

I can't and won't quibble with the offensive concerns Goldstein brings up regarding Stewart, even labeling him above average offensively. Yet, I think the above average offensive package gels nicely with the defensive package to make a pretty valuable player (considering the actual cost to the team). I think he's David Wright defensively (and no, that shouldn't mean Gold Glover). Stewart will make a lot of wow plays with his strong arm, range, and athleticism, but will also make more errors on routine plays due to concentration lapses (though these could just as easily decrease once he makes it).

Considering that the Rockies are planning to employ a rotation of Cook-Reynolds-Morales (all big GB% pitchers) for the long term, it would simply make sense to overvalue defense in the infield to play to the rotation's strengths.

by David OhNo on Jan 23, 2008 7:48 PM MST up reply actions

To add

Stewart's minor league career range factor is 2.85 (with last season being his worst year, but still not bad by any standard). The league average third baseman in the majors this year was at 2.68.

by David OhNo on Jan 23, 2008 8:02 PM MST up reply actions

Past minor league move to report..

The Rockies purchased the contract of Outfielder Kane Simmons from the Chico Outlaws back in December. Simmons was ranked as the 4th best Independent League prospect by Baseball America back in October. Simmons, 23, led the Golden League in homeruns (18) and SLG% (.628) last season.

Baseball America on Simmons:

Simmons showed power to all fields, with a smooth lefty stroke and the ability to drive the ball out to center field. He does need to refine his approach against offspeed pitches, but he made adjustments as the season went along. He's an average runner.

Simmons is likely limited to left field. He was recruited by Belmont as a pitcher, and he was clocked at 87-88 mph in high school, but he tore his labrum as a high school senior, which necessitated the move to the outfield. He needs to refine his throwing mechanics and quicken his release to improve his below-average arm.

by malakian on Jan 23, 2008 2:02 PM MST reply actions

Correction

The Rockies purchased his contract from the Reno Silver Sox, not the Chico Outlaws.

by malakian on Jan 23, 2008 2:04 PM MST up reply actions

Looks like the Tulo deal is final.

Finally.

by belt on Jan 23, 2008 3:10 PM MST reply actions

More minor league transactions:

Per Baseball America

The Rockies have signed the following players to minor league contracts:
RHP Matt Hirsh(brother of Jason Hirsh and former Cardinals prospect)
LHP Luis E. Gonzalez(former Rule 5 pick and briefly a Rockie for a few days back in 2005- was part of the Torrealba trade)
LHP Cedrick Bowers (former Rays farmhand)
C Dave Parrish(former Yankee prospect and son of Lance Parrish)

They also released Casper pitchers Jose Campos, Leonel Lopez, Jonathan Molina, Luis Noboa, J.T. Zink and Tri-City OF Maruis Loupadiere.

by malakian on Jan 23, 2008 4:24 PM MST reply actions

i like the matt hirsh signing

i can just see... in five years our ace being hirsh. and out number two guy being matt. all the other teams will be like didnt we face this guy last week?

man im really dreaming. but 07 showed anything is possible

At least the broncos dont totally suck

by roxfan4life on Jan 23, 2008 9:25 PM MST up reply actions

Luis E. Gonzales?

Thus continuing the Rockies tradition of having a Luis "Not That Luis Gonzales" Gonzales.

Welcome to the Rockies, Luis E. "Not That Luis Gonzales Who Wasn't THE Luis Gonzales" Gonzales.

Or Gonzo, as you are no doubt known.

by BroJB @ Purple Row on Jan 23, 2008 4:47 PM MST reply actions

Re: The Marcels projection

I have no idea how the Marcels system works, but my sour grapes hangover from the World Series (plus the fact that I've disliked Boston sports in general for several years) makes me question Pinto's results for the Rockies when you compare them to what he got for Boston.

Take a look at his Red Sox projection- they made no significant moves in the offseason when it comes to their lineup. Yet apparently even their absolute worst projection he gets for runs/game beats last year's total. I understand that Pedroia might get a little better, and Ellsbury should be a big improvement over Crisp. But what about the rest of the lineup? Pinto claims Manny Ramirez is going to have a rebound year at age 36. So why is Helton supposed to nose dive at 35, especially when his game depends much less on raw power? 34 year old Mike Lowell and 32 year old David Ortiz will have no trouble repeating last year's performances. Somehow though, 29 year old Hawpe and 29 year old Holliday are projected to regress.

Like I already admitted, some of this is sour grapes. It's still frustrating though. Ramirez and Ortiz (not to mention the usually frail Lowell) are going to fall off eventually. I'd give them a much better chance at doing so in 2008 than our core.

rockies in october.

by LarryB303 on Jan 23, 2008 5:48 PM MST reply actions

Oh, I almost forgot

Surely, 36 year old Jason Varitek will continue to be an above average hitting catcher who's capable of making 130 starts. Right?

rockies in october.

by LarryB303 on Jan 23, 2008 6:12 PM MST up reply actions

ahh... now you start to see where we quietly smile

and nod at the numbers crunchers. Boston's got a great team, don't get me wrong, but there's a definite downside there in the lineup with some of their aging stars that you'll only hear Yankees fans talk about, and the young guys coming up are only mediocre. I think the Red Sox rotation is fantastic still, with a ton of depth, so I'm giving them another couple of years before things really start getting tricky. Just in time for Holliday, I guess. At any rate, I think you're right that there's a lot more space for disappointment with them than you'll find with the Rockies. Our expectations are still relatively low it seems.

by Rox Girl on Jan 23, 2008 6:21 PM MST up reply actions

Red Sox

First of all, the whole point of Marcel is that it's simplistic and stupid. It seems to have taken on a life of its own (mostly because everyone, myself included, has enormous respect for Tango and his work), but it's not a serious analysis tool, nor was it ever intended as such. Marcel isn't a tool of the numbers crunchers, it's a tool of the numbers users who are either too lazy or too ignorant to discriminate.

"Boston's got a great team, don't get me wrong, but there's a definite downside there in the lineup with some of their aging stars that you'll only hear Yankees fans talk about, and the young guys coming up are only mediocre."

This is dead on. And the weird thing about it is that, as far as I can tell, my projections are the only ones to see it. I've got the Red Sox at 86 wins. It's actually not the lineup that's the problem: I've got their nine regulars projected at an average of 2.5 WAR, compared to the 2.85 level that they played at last year, which is more or less a normal age-related decline. The problem is that there's just no way in hell that they can come anywhere close to what they did last year on the pitching side of things.

The Red Sox were something like 0.85 runs below the park-adjusted league average last year. That means, basically, that facing the Red Sox, on any given day, was like facing Roy Halladay (and knowing that he was going to go all nine innings). That's an out-of-this-world, almost cartoonish performance. Beckett is likely to decline significantly. So is Schilling (a combination of age and having been ridiculously lucky last year). Wakefield has to lose it eventually. The projections hate Okajima, too (because he was blah in Japan). Timlin is a league-average pitcher who got incredibly lucky on balls in play. And they somehow got 125 innings of 3.02 ERA out of the foursome of Lopez, Delcarmen, Donnelly, and Romero. I'm a big Delcarmen fan, but he's not going to put up another 2.00 ERA, and the other guys are the very definition of mediocre. All told, I see them allowing something like 100 runs more than they did last year, and finishing closer to the Rays than to the Yankees (although that brings me to another point: I've got the Rays projected to win 85 games. For any of you looking for a team to put $10 on, here's your answer). If I had to guess, I'd say that my projections are a little too harsh, but they're not a 98-win team or anything. I'm quite sure of that.

On other topics...

My projections like Reynolds a lot too (4.55 ERC, which doesn't sound like much, but by prospect standards is damn good), so it's not just PECOTA. I'm coming around to the idea that our rotation will be at least average, on the grounds that between Jimenez, Morales, Reynolds, and Towers, we're likely to, at the minimum, come up with a solid #4 starter, and we might very well come up with a solid #5 as well. On an individual basis, I don't particularly like any of their chances, but as a group, things look pretty good.

Looks like Goldstein has officially joined the Idiot Brigade. There's no justification whatsoever for ranking a relief prospect, even a great one, ahead of Ian Stewart. If Stewart can just turn into Adrian Beltre offensively, he'll be more valuable than all but the top handful of relievers (a level which Weathers is hardly a lock to reach), and his upside is a heck of a lot higher than that.

by Heltonfan on Jan 23, 2008 10:40 PM MST up reply actions