Wednesday Morning Rockpile:

by Rox Girl on Jan 9, 2008 6:50 AM MST in Rockpile

Tracy Ringolsby looks at the relatively minor moves the Rockies have made this winter when compared to their divisional peers, and while I generally think this approach is a good one so long as our farm remains productive, I think it's also important to note that the team hasn't closed itself to making the splashy move. We've learned that the Rockies talked to the A's about Haren, and we know that our contract offer to Iguchi was comparable if not over the one that the Padres offered. Ringolsby also breaks down this Spring's positional battles, which likely boil down to second base, fifth starter, LOOGY, and two other bottom of the bullpen slots. Except for second, these are probably the roles every team should have in competition each year, so the stability is nice.

One other note about the Ringolsby article, he says that Josh Fogg and Jeremy Affeldt haven't had serious negotiations with other teams to our knowledge, but but there was word out of Cincinnati yesterday connecting Josh to the Reds.

Adam Foster at Project Prospect put up profiles of his top five Rockies prospects, Stewart, Morales, Nelson, Fowler and Reynolds. Don't forget, our own PUrple Row ProSpect list is due tonight at midnight mountain time. I'll update the thread later this morning so it moves to the top, here.

In that regard, I've been thinking the last couple of days about whether I might be underestimating Aneury Rodriguez. It's a difficult call, because on the one hand you have a K/9 rate that's very high, particularly for a nineteen year old at that level, but part of the reason that it is so high is because he allows so many hits off contact that he's got to strike out people to get through innings. We know his home park at McCormick Field inflates offensive numbers against him, and actually suppresses the K's by about ten percent. His road numbers somewhat back this up, but there still seems to be too strong of contact against him (8 HR allowed on the road) to make me really comfortable thinking of him in elite terms yet.

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is no one else as

high on weathers as i am?

by goyard on Jan 9, 2008 7:32 AM MST reply actions

I like Weathers a lot

I just like the seven guys I have ahead of him more only because it's pretty difficult for any one inning reliever to exceed the value of quality everyday position players and two hundred inning starters. One thing Casey definitely has going for him over Nelson and Gomez is that he figures to start providing value to the MLB team very soon.

by Rox Girl on Jan 9, 2008 7:39 AM MST up reply actions

Weathers and Buccholz

You know both those guys are arms I'm (quietly) counting on to really make the bullpen something special. I think Weathers could start at Tulsa or the Springs, and I think he'll get about 1/2 years action before he's called up. I could see a scenario where the Rox take advantage of a midseason trading deadline on Fuentes and then bring Weathers up to help fortify the 7th inning and possibly 8th if he does well.

Also, I think this is the year we see Taylor take a step forward. Settled into a role for the first time in the last several years of his career, that fastball/power curve arsenal could be light's out in shorter relief situations.

Lastly, I will be interested to see if there's any more talk of using Morales in the bullpen. He did well in the rotation last year, but if the 5 spots are well filled for this year (and with Reynolds) and the near future, moving him into a definitive 8th inning, power lefty set-up role would be interesting. Ultimately, a rotation of steady pitchers who throw a lot of innings backed up by a Weathers, Morales, Corpas three-headed relief monster might be a great model for continued success.

by Thomas @ Purple Row on Jan 9, 2008 7:49 AM MST up reply actions

Buchholz

I agree on Buchholz. He was curiously left out of Ringolby's list of right-handed relievers (unless something got accidentally deleted). Until mid-season last year, he'd gone back & forth from starter to bullpen for 3 years, with more appearances as starter than reliever. When used solely out of the bullpen in the last half of 2007, he was quite good. I look forward to seeing how he'll do if kept in that role for a full season.

by strosnrocks on Jan 9, 2008 8:11 AM MST reply actions

Accidental omission on Buchholz

Says a note from Ringolsby, Taylor's definitely in the right hand mix for a roster slot.

by Rox Girl on Jan 9, 2008 9:56 AM MST up reply actions

If the Mariners

don't trade for Erik Bedard, the fall back option may be . . . Josh Fogg.

"Don't give up the ship!" - Capt. James Lawrence

by Russ Oates on Jan 9, 2008 8:26 AM MST reply actions

Really...? nice safety, Bavasi

If I don't get lobster for dinner, my fallback option is taco bell?

If I don't get into Harvard for grad school, my fallback is ITT tech?

If I don't marry Clive Owen, my fallback is my plumber.

Sheesh, I bet Lookout Landing and and USS Mariner have a field day with this.

by Rox Girl on Jan 9, 2008 9:05 AM MST up reply actions

Roberts to the Cubs

Rumor right now has Sean Gallagher, Sean Marshall, and Ronny Cedeno going to the Orioles.

Can someone give me that trade with Rockies comps?

by Roberbola on Jan 9, 2008 9:04 AM MST reply actions

Kind of hard to give comps for this

as the players the Cubs would be giving to Baltimore are all either a season or two more or less developed than players in our system who have similar profiles. Cedeno is probably what Jonathan Herrera can be in a couple of years, Marshall could be a less developed Francis type of pitcher. Gallagher is a healthier, further along version of Greg Reynolds. I guess a similar package might be something like U-ball or Morales, Jayson Nix or Quintanilla and Reynolds, but we'd probably have to add something else since there's less of a track record with the players we'd be giving.

by Rox Girl on Jan 9, 2008 9:21 AM MST up reply actions

Can't help but notice

Ringolsby has Nix penciled in as the Rockies 2nd baseman, Hurdle has practicaly handed him the job, (per his recent statements), not to mention you (Rox Girl) and Hardy, my question is, what is the point of anyone else showing up for this slot? What is Giles for, what about Barmey, Q, Stew, and Bake? Assuming one of these will be the starting 2nd baseman, one other, being the utility guy, what about the other 4?

by roxtalk on Jan 9, 2008 10:45 AM MST up reply actions

It's not set in stone

Say Stewart comes in with outstanding footwork, is able to turn the pivot on DP's adeptly and otherwise shows decent range, then suddenly this battle is a whole different ballgame as he has the best bat of the bunch and should be considered the favorite. It just usually doesn't work that way when guys are making position switches, particularly given his size. The defensive swing between a very good and a lousy second baseman could be worth up to four wins over the course of a season, that's not something to be taken lightly.

Barmes and Q are going to be playing for Jamey Carroll's job, none of the other four can play shortstop well enough, so whichever seems most likely to not kill us at the plate will break camp with the MLB team. Right now, Barmes seems to be the favorite for that.

Baker is in a lot of trouble, and we should probably get into this in more detail before camp, but he's got Spilborghs and either Smith or Sullivan squeezing him out of play in the outfield and Stewart pushing him at the corners, his bat needs to show up and the holes in his swing that pitchers exploited last season need to disappear, or I think he's a good candidate for being shipped out in trade or just getting cut.

Giles has to be hoping for a combination of disappointment from Nix, Stewart and Baker to get the second base job, but he'd become the favorite after those three. If any of them perform up to their potential, Marcus gets cut in March.

Barmes and Quintanilla probably have to have all four of the others flop/get injured, whatever to be considered for the starting position since the club seems to be angling them toward that utility role and having both on the twenty-five roster will probably bode ill for our season.

by Rox Girl on Jan 9, 2008 11:06 AM MST up reply actions

Nix is ahead right now...

Two months from now, who knows. If he comes into Spring Training and plays even marginally well, the job is likely his. Stewart is going to have to show some incredible improvement with the glove and the bat to show that he's ready to start taking playing time at 2nd. I'd rather keep him in the Springs, give him plenty of playing time there to keep improving then risk something catastrophic happening at 2nd. He's a hell of a safety net for Helton and Atkins in case something happens there.

It's amazing how quickly Baker's star has fallen. I remember having a conversation with ohno the first week of the season where we were saying that his trade value might be higher then Holliday's at the time. One shoddy season later, I'm ashamed that I remember that. Even then, you have to figure that he's got a ton of value to other teams with the relative skill level on most team's benches...

President of the Kazuo Matsui Fan Club

by MattTheRock on Jan 9, 2008 11:49 AM MST up reply actions

Being a:

Novice, I truly do respect your opinion, Tracy's, Davids, and others who I know are way ahead of me on this stuff. I appreciate your prompt reply and the sense that it made.

by roxtalk on Jan 9, 2008 12:47 PM MST up reply actions

Wanting to correct a false impression

my first response might give about the players involved. It goes back to how difficult it is to make a direct Rockies comparison because they are either different profiles to players we have, or those players we do have that are similar are further away from contributing or less certain to have MLB value.

Marshall's a finesse lefty who could still be a very good finesse lefty, despite mediocre peripheral stats. He's got definite value in the here and now as well as the future for the Orioles even though there's only a mid-rotation ceiling. I think rather than U-ball or Frankie a better comp would be Jason Hirsh, but LHP's tend to have more value than their right handed equivalents. Gallagher's also a potential mid rotation starter with decent stuff and really good command of his FB, again like Hirsh, but he's a couple levels of maturity below Jason.

Cedeno's somewhere on the spectrum between slick fielding utility infielder and potential starting shortstop, so the Jonathan Herrera comp seems fair, but he's already playing in the majors rather than a season plus away still like Herrera
and he's producing a bit better than Quintanilla has. I believe after thinking it over a better equivalent trade would be:

Jason Hirsh, Quintanilla, Brandon Hynick and maybe somebody like Darren Clarke or Josh Newman to make up the differences in development/certainty of value in MLB vs the Cubs guys.

We avoid using U-ball or Morales, but Jason figures to be about as valuable to us this season so it still doesn't seem worth it to me.

by Rox Girl on Jan 9, 2008 10:49 AM MST up reply actions

Thank you Rox Girl

I was going to jump on you for the first set of comps, as neither of the Cubs pitchers has the ceiling of Ubaldo or Morales. (FYI - Morales was number 16 on Jonathan Mayo's top 50 prospects.) Gallagher only ranks #5 on a list of Cubs prospects at Baseball America, and the Cubs aren't known for having a good farm system.

This second set feels a little better, and would be a tough call.

by Roberbola on Jan 9, 2008 11:23 AM MST up reply actions

Or ...

The Rox don't have a similarly structured deal, i agree. But something similar from the Rox probably would have had to center around Stewart. I think the 'near-term' value of any prospects the Orioles get back for Bedard/Roberts will be important. That's the East Coast, and they don't really sit still for longterm rebuilding efforts. The O's want guys that are closer to being ready, especially the arms.

Mabye a comparable package from the Rox would have been Stewart (or possibly Nelson), Buccholz and Hynick.

to tell the truth though, I don't love either deal from a Rox perspective, and I do like it from the O's. the only mitigating factor for the Rox, b/c that's a lot of talent to give up for a guy that doesn't hit lefties well, is that the actual difference in 2008 team performance for the Rox will be the most highly affected by a drastic improvement at 2B. Including CF and C, there's nowhere on the field where the Rox have so much room to improve and putting in a difference-making player at that spot would have a big impact (like you mentioned ... 4 or 5 games or more for a bat and glove combo player).

As the winter has set in and Feb is closer, I'm agreeing with you (and the Rox) more and more. The club won last year but really wasn't built to. There's no reason to start trading away the farm and breaking the development pattern now. Longterm, plus-plus players for 2B and CF are on the way (and I like the catcher that was at Savanah this year too), and as constructed the organization should compete in the NL West for a long time

by Thomas @ Purple Row on Jan 9, 2008 11:34 AM MST up reply actions

Odd note about the Josh Towers contract

According to Renck, it's a minor league deal. However, Towers must be added to the 40-man roster before spring training begins on February 27th. Basically it's a delayed major league deal designed to give the Rockies roster flexibility before spring training begins.

by malakian on Jan 9, 2008 11:53 AM MST reply actions