2009 Bill James Handbook Projections (Hitters)

by Russ Oates on Oct 22, 2008 8:23 AM MDT in Miscellaneous Comment 7 comments

Thanks to Eric Simon of Amazin' Avenue who received a sneak peek at the 2009 Bill James projections. He graciously offered the information to all the baseball bloggers, and here I present to you how Rockies hitters are projected for 2009 before the book is released on November 1.

Join me after the jump.

**2009 Bill James Projections**
Hitter	Age	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	RC	BB	SO	SB	CS	Avg	OBP	Slg	OPS
Garrett Atkins	29	158	617	183	41	1	22	90	105	104	57	95	1	1	0.297	0.359	0.473	0.832
Jeff Baker	28	106	285	78	19	2	11	42	47	44	23	69	3	1	0.274	0.330	0.470	0.800
Clint Barmes	30	107	351	96	21	2	8	45	36	44	15	49	7	4	0.274	0.309	0.413	0.722
Dexter Fowler	23	150	564	171	38	8	10	95	63	96	63	112	28	12	0.303	0.374	0.452	0.826
Brad Hawpe	30	152	540	152	31	3	27	76	99	100	78	146	2	2	0.281	0.374	0.500	0.874
Todd Helton	35	131	476	145	36	1	17	79	74	98	93	73	1	1	0.305	0.421	0.492	0.913
Matt Holliday	29	154	605	192	43	4	29	111	108	128	66	116	19	6	0.317	0.392	0.545	0.937
Chris Iannetta	26	133	463	126	29	4	21	71	79	84	74	108	0	0	0.272	0.382	0.488	0.870
Omar Quintanilla	27	86	246	65	17	1	2	31	20	29	19	43	2	1	0.264	0.317	0.366	0.683
Seth Smith	26	79	211	60	15	1	7	28	29	34	21	34	5	2	0.284	0.349	0.464	0.814
Ryan Spilborghs	29	118	370	115	24	2	10	59	53	66	44	60	9	5	0.311	0.386	0.468	0.853
Ian Stewart	24	81	272	72	18	2	11	40	41	42	26	70	5	2	0.265	0.338	0.467	0.805
Willy Taveras	27	134	514	145	16	3	2	77	29	62	35	85	56	12	0.282	0.335	0.337	0.672
Yorvit Torrealba	30	56	134	33	9	0	3	14	17	15	10	26	0	0	0.246	0.318	0.381	0.698
Troy Tulowitzki	24	129	500	144	32	3	17	80	71	82	51	79	4	4	0.288	0.359	0.466	0.825

Here are some thoughts:

These projections tend to be a bit on the optimistic side. I'm speaking of over the years.
If Dexter Fowler can come in and have a full season like that we're talking about not only a Rookie of the Year, but also a true leadoff hitter for the Rockies.
I'm liking the projection for Chris Iannetta. We'll have a season without having to think about Torrealba playing almost every day (being the backup or being traded).
I don't want to see Brad Hawpe approach 150 K. His highest is 137, from 2007.
Troy Tulowitzki has a nice 2009 season.
Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, and Ian Stewart: Those three are in a situation that will sort itself out during the offseason. Stewart should play in more than half the games.
Matt Holliday is still a beast but fails to reach or break the 30-homer plateau for a second year in a row.

Feel free to bring up other points of disscussion. We'll compare these projections to others when they are released over the offseason. Later tonight or tomorrow I'll put up the pitcher projections.

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Comments

I love Heltons numbers there.

During the off-season so far, and crying about OB%, I’ve loved the thought of Helton being back next year. I feel like it was helpful to have him down this year, to learn what Stew was all about, but man is it hard without him around.

by roxintober on Oct 22, 2008 8:34 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Can somebody explain this?

Maybe I’m am misunderstanding these figures. How do Rockies outfielders project to have 2,804 ABs in 2009. Are we going to start playing 4 outfielders and 3 infielders?

by Roberbola on Oct 22, 2008 9:52 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Most of the players in the Handbook are projected based upon what they would do with a full season’s worth of at-bats. At least that was what I saw last year in the book, with exceptions made on players who clearly were not going to get a full-time big league opportunity.

Not sure if that holds true this year, though based on your comment I suspect it does. However, I’m not looking at these numbers until I can get a copy of the book myself.

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.

by Franchise26 on Oct 22, 2008 1:53 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I figured he's making his best guess

As to who will get playing time, regardless of the team. Just though it was a little quirky.

The thing I like most about these figures is that the Rockies project to have 800 OPS or higher at every lineup spot (except pitcher), plus a bench with 2 other >800 OPS guys. This assumes Atkins is traded for a decent 3rd or 4th starter, which is what I think DOD should do.

That is a pretty deep lineup…I wonder if there are any other teams that could make that claim?

by Roberbola on Oct 22, 2008 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

OF

Perhaps James is assuming a trade(s)? Taveras and Fowler might both end up with 500+ AB, but not if they are both with the Rockies.

by kosmo99 on Oct 22, 2008 1:10 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Projecting playing time

There are no projection systems that project playing time in any meaningful way. It’s just not possible to do it statistically (i.e. based on past numbers, without knowing anything about the team depth chart). I myself don’t even bother to try – I just project rate stats.

In other words, there’s no “best guess” being made here about playing time – these are just the numbers that James’s system spits out, but if you asked him, I’m sure he’d say that the playing time projections mean absolutely nothing.

But, of course, it doesn’t really matter. Just take the BA/OBP/SLG projections and decide for yourself how the playing time will be allocated.

Anyway, as Russ said, the Bill James projections tend to be ridiculously optimistic. They’re not worth the virtual paper they’re printed on.

by Heltonfan on Oct 22, 2008 9:47 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs