2009 Bill James Projections (Pitchers)

by Russ Oates on Oct 23, 2008 6:00 AM MDT in Miscellaneous

Here's the second part of the Bill James projections.

**2009 Bill James Pitching Projections**
Pitcher	Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	W	L	Pct	Sv	ERA
Taylor Buchholz	27	57	0	59	59	7	17	42	4	3	0.571	4	3.92
Aaron Cook	30	29	29	182	209	14	51	74	11	10	0.524	0	4.34
Manny Corpas	26	77	0	82	82	6	21	60	5	4	0.556	32	3.54
Jorge De La Rosa	28	29	24	153	168	19	78	124	7	10	0.412	0	5.27
Jeff Francis	28	29	29	176	191	22	59	120	10	10	0.500	0	4.56
Brian Fuentes	33	63	0	62	50	6	25	70	5	2	0.714	4	3.43
Jason Grilli	32	59	0	78	81	7	34	55	4	4	0.500	0	4.44
Ubaldo Jimenez	25	32	32	195	190	18	106	165	11	11	0.500	0	4.49
Glendon Rusch	34	42	10	96	111	13	31	70	5	6	0.455	0	4.93
Ryan Speier	29	40	0	47	52	2	19	32	3	3	0.500	0	4.52
Luis Vizcaino	34	51	0	58	54	8	25	52	4	3	0.571	0	4.06

Some points of discussion:

I include Brian Fuentes just in case he re-signs with the Rockies.
That being said, I have no idea why Fuentes's saves total is that low. Whichever team signs him will make him the closer.
It seems that these projections take a pessimistic view of most Rockies pitchers.
They're projections. They could outperform them, or they could do even worse. Which is more likely?

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4.32 team era

according to these numbers, won’t be good enough to make the playoffs. (4.40 without Fuentes)

by 4thturn on Oct 23, 2008 7:45 AM MDT reply actions

3-over .500 too

(My first post…be nice!)

Lower ERA and better winning percentage than ’08. It seems likely that we should be better in ’09, but how much is questionable:

1) The second half Jorge was much better than his first half evil twin (better)
2) J-Fran found some lost velocity (a 90ish heater and 78ish change is much more effective than 84/78, especially for Mr. Location) (better)
3) Will we get any new starters (a 2 or a 3) related to trading away offense? (depends on the pitcher…but…I’ll say better)
4) To temper my possibly unwarranted optimism, I do worry about which re-tread relievers will get the call, especially considering we’re without Weathers until at least 2010. (worse)

I think these projections are reasonable for the sum of the parts, even if the individual pieces may seem a bit pessimistic. I think these get better if we acquire a 2 or a 3 in the rotation. Question though…in doing his analysis, does anybody know if he “closes” his totals (i.e., runs scored by batters equals runs allowed by pitchers, total W/L is .500)? If so…we are very…average; better than last year, but worse than our optimism…

by polishweasel on Oct 23, 2008 8:56 AM MDT reply actions

Unless he goes to the Yankees

Fuentes save total could be that low if he’s a set-up man for the Yankees.
I thought it interesting that they project Cook at 11-10. That seems kind of low for a pitcher coming off a career year.

by rockieprogress on Oct 23, 2008 3:53 PM MDT reply actions

Interesting point

about Fuentes if he signs with the Yankees, but for some reason I think he’d take less money to close games than be paid handsomely to be a set-up man for the Yankees.

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by Russ Oates on Oct 23, 2008 8:52 PM MDT up reply actions