Purple Row Prospects (PuRPs) List, #21-#30

slow day at the row

Way to low for Colonel.

It tells me that half the people voting think he’s a prospect. Hard to believe, huh? As with Franchise, it seems that Mr. Colonel’s bee is buzzing in your bonnet too. I had Colonel ranked #6 on my list. Here’s why:

I start with my definition of a prospect. Several years ago (‘06 I think) MLB produced a report that showed only about 10% of all the players drafted ever make it to the majors. 10%—pretty steep odds. Far fewer (I can’t remember the number) actually stick an entire season on a 25 man active roster. I try to combine these two benchmarks for my basic definition of a prospect. A player who has a reasonable chance of (1) making it to Denver, and (2) contributing in a meaningful way once there qualifies for my list.

I next separate pitchers from position players. For evaluating the latter, I first rely heavily on the age-old measure of offensive success in baseball, namely, a batting average of at least .300. This is not my only criterion, but it is certainly an important one. Those accomplishing it at any level of the minors are way ahead of the pack in my book. In ‘08, our entire minor league system produced only eleven players who appeared in at least 100 games (60 for the short season clubs) and hit over .300. Eleven. Colonel was one of them. We’ve had only three players do it for two consecutive seasons. Colonel is one of them (Paulk and Holcomb are the others). He did this at the two most competitive levels of the minors, AA and then AAA. When we start producing 20 or 30 .300 hitters a year instead of just eleven, perhaps I’ll consider cutting guys like Colonel off my list. Until then, I can’t overlook his results, nor should others.

While one could argue that my ranking is too high, ignoring what is arguably one of the most consistent offensive producers in our system over the last two years by not placing him somewhere, anywhere on the prospect list seems odd, even punitive. To me, he seems projectable to the majors. So he’s on my list. Maybe he’s too high. Maybe Roxhead has it right—somewhere in the middle of the pack is where he belongs. But according to my measuring stick, he belongs.

If there is a more objective way of evaluating offensive players, I’m all ears. For the record, all eleven of last year’s .300 hitters made my list except for Tony Blanco (horrible defense) and Orlando Sandoval (simply don’t know anything about him). Of course, if objective results are not part of your prospect criteria, most of what I’ve said flies out the window. It all boils down to your criteria. I’ve tried to give you the thrust of mine and how I measure results. What’s yours? Russ or Franchise or whomever, how do you define a prospect? It can’t just be potential five tool guys, cuz we don’t have many of those. So, what makes you put a player on your list? Scouting reports, in person evaluations, draft round? All give certain clues for future success, no doubt. Whatever your reasons, sharing your selection process would help us avoid throwing all these spitballs at each other.

In the meantime, I propose we declare a truce on Mr. Colonel and wish him well for next year.

P.S. Gotta love McKenry’s AFL #’s.

for his ’08 season suggests his best chance upside is a .233/.283/.369 line in the pros…

Matt Miller’s(from AAA) would be .254/.329/.333

And now, for some names, I’ll let everyone make the ties:

Randy Ruiz, Oscar Salazar, Joe Thurston, Mike Cervenak, Brandon Watson, Timo Perez, Jeff Bailey, Tike Redman, Andy Tracy, Nick Stavinoha, Terry Tiffee, Freddy Sandoval, Jesus Merchan, Bobby Scales, John Lindsey, Brian Myrow, John Gall, Tim Raines, Tagg Bozied, Bradley Coon, Shawn Garrett, Scott McClain, and Mark Saccomanno.

Disagree if you must. Mock if you will. Avoid the topic, however, at your own peril. Why won’t any of you tell the rest of us poor slobs what constitues a prospect in your world?
Why do you continue to evade the central issue?

Of those responding, David has, imo, the most cred. So, I’ll direct my questions to him. What criteria did you use in deciding who should be a prospect on your list? Surely there was some fundamental manner by which you assessed your picks. What was it? You state that Colonel isn’t likely to make an impact. Fair enough. So tell me, what constitutes an impact in your world? It isn’t a trick question. I’m not trying to play gotcha. I’m not smart enough for that. On the contrary, I’m willing to be persuaded to a different way of looking at our minor leaguers. But laughing at the organization’s historical mistakes doesn’t get any of us anywhere. And frankly, it’s irrelevant.

What comprises your mix between youth/tools/hope vs experience/actual results? I realize there is no one correct answer and it differs from one player to the next, but what side of that equation do you come down on and why?

No one appreciates biting sarcasm more than I do. You aimed your artillery for maximum effect. Well done. Now, back to the real debate. What is a prospect? What in your judgment constitutes impact? What, other than gut feel, justifies so many of the younger kids being on your list? As much specificity as possible would be appreciated. Franchise, I know I’ve already asked you these same questions twice without getting an answer, but I’d also welcome your responses if you’re so inclined.

Other than David, how many of the people who voted have seen Colonel play, or any other of the players on the list? I would lend credence to Davids picks on those who have come throught Tulsa.

If none of you have not seen anyone play, (save David OhNo), how do you come to your conclusions.? Need more time?

Kudos to mattrob and roxtalk for their views. I don’t believe anyone expressing a player preference in this poll was wrong. As roxhead said, if everyone agreed all the time, this wouldn’t be fun.
Some final thoughts:
All counterpoints mattrob raises about Colonel are valid. I first started attending some Tourist games in ‘04, which was his year in Asheville. But the only player I honestly remember from that team, not surprisingly, was Ian Stewart. So I have to admit that I’ve never seen Colonel play and wouldn’t know him if he walked right past me. My backing of him in the poll was purely statistically based, and, no, I didn’t forget his age. Funny thing is, in light of all the focus on him recently, I’m certainly going to make it a point to root extra hard for him next year.

As to your Rosario analogy, I’m in total agreement. Assuming he gets sent to Asheville next year (seems logical) I’m already looking forward to seeing him in person. Judging from the comments of others, I’m also hopeful that Cleary gets sent here too.

Re: roxtalk’s questions. I’ve seen a little over half of those on the final list play in person, obviously when they came through Asheville. Some a lot, some not. There is no substitute for first hand observations. Indeed, that is the very reason I directed my questions yesterday to David OhNo.

This site is entertaining. I didn’t know it existed until ‘06. Every year brings new issues and passionate debate. I remember going round and round with Roxgirl on several items during ’07 (BTW, where is Roxgirl? Has she moved on?) as well as a few times this past season. While I don’t have as much of a Denver bias as many of you, I do enjoy following the progress of the individual players in the system.
One apology on my part that is inexcusable. I don’t know how on earth I left Everth Cabrera off my prospect list. I only realized it after having I turned in my choices. Though he struggled some in the second half, he definintely deserves a shout out.

Congrats to Chacin on his award today. Very deserving. I got to see him pitch several times this year. Nobody touched him in the SAL.

These are what I consider when I do my evaluations and rankings and stress a holisitc approach to evaluating these players:

1) Age in comparison to league- This is huge in weeding out the haves and the have nots. Baseball Prospectus (among others) has suggested that players are able to see their most growth before the age of 25. Once there, players pretty much are what they are going to be, so that age is a benchmark in assessing future ability. After that, it’s important to note how a player performs relative to his age level. A guy at the age of 24 playing 22-23 year olds has had a year or more of time to develop his physical attributes as well as game experience against quality competition. They are essentially outfoxing or outmuscling their younger counterparts. This is why I won’t ever put Paulk on a ballot. younger player holding their own against more polished, developed players is more impressive, because they have even more room to grow.

2) Personal Evaluation- This does not have to be live observation. This can be scouting videos, or in the case of college/minor league all stars, television. Obviously, I have the good fortune to live in Tulsa and see our prospects quite regularly, however, I value scouting video just as much in looking at our lower level guys.

3) Statistical Analysis- I use this to a degree, but I don’t like it when people go overboard with stats and minor leaguers. That said, BP’s peak translations are pretty good at describing what you’re seeing in these guys. Such stats help to take park and league factors out of numbers, so pitchers aren’t punish for pitching at McCormick or SSF, and vice versa for hitters. Other tools at FanGraphs and First Inning are pretty solid, like K/9, BB/9, GB%, etc.

4) Expert Observations- These can come from all over and are invaluable. Even the best at Baseball America have to rely on others to tell them what they see in a player. This is one of the reasons I really like Delta Cleary. Just wait, for those of you that have a BA account, when you go tomorrow to read the Draft Report for Colorado (or today depending on where you’re reading this), you’ll likely see several nice reviews for Cleary, as BA’s been buzzing about him a bit this summer and fall. These guys know guys on the ground close to these situations, so there’s no shame in taking their word for it. Such polls are pointless otherwise.

5) Nobody is Unique- This is actually a principle I go by when I look at players, and this is the most damning for Colonel. Essentially, this a personal belief that every type of player that exists in this game has already arrived in some form, and few if any players will break pre-established molds in our lifetime. I’m not saying you strictly pigeon hole players based on first glance, but a guy that shares similar skills and characteristics to another player or group of players is more likely to share similar success (or lackthereof) in the pros. This principle is generally applied in scouting and stats, as scouts look for peculiar traits and assess comparisons on players, while stats attempt to find a correlation with a player’s stats to those of others past and present. In Colonel’s case, the 25+ contact hitter that has moderate success in AAA (the PCL no less) is similar to roughly two dozen career minor leaguers each year. Colonel’s profile rarely breeds pro success, and guys of his ilk generally “make it” on opportunity more than performance.

It’s easier to describe what factors I look look through than it is to say what I call a prospect, but this vague definition probably best profiles how I got my list:

A prospect is a player determined to have the potential to produce a net gain over a period of time for a major league club. Players are ranked through an undefined ratio that balances a player’s likely floor, a player’s physical ability, and a player’s likely ceiling.

I am totally dependent on stats. Like Russ said, “Maybe I’d have a different perspective on a player if I actually saw him play, but, unfortunately, that can’t be so.” I live in Denver so its just not possible for me to see players before they reach the big time except for the occasional highlight reel or all-star game. The thing is that I’d love to be able to judge a player first hand. There is nothing like seeing a legit major league prospect. The sound of the ball coming off his bat or the sizzle and pop of the catchers glove is way different from the multitude of wannabe’s that fill the minor league rosters.

I like videos to a small degree. They do show a kids mechanics which is very insightful. However, I hate them for ball movement and sound which is very important to me. But the most important thing for me to see is his mannerisms around the cage or mound. Just watching a prospect throw and catch tells you a great deal. It’s like a Jedi Knight. They seemed to have the ‘force’ which separates them from the others. And you just can’t get that info from most scouting videos.

So I’m dependent of statistics. I don’t apologize for it and its why my poll is heavy with kids who have proven themselves over time. At RoxHead, I have the top 40 position player prospects and the top 40 pitching prospects ranked. That’s 80 players. In order to have reached the combined top 30 for the PURPS poll, most players had to earn their way up the list over time. It’s true that high draft picks get high automatic slots, especially college players, but that is just being realistic. Those players are drafted high for a reason.

I respect most opinions of people here at the ‘Row’, especially the ones who are reporting from a game they were able to attend. I like reading what OhNo has to write, the reports from Franchise26, and what Rox Girl has to write about her Asheville visits and her RMN Farm System Blog. I am not a member of BA or BP. I think Ringolsby and Etkin’s have a lot say about the Rockies prospect in BA and I can read them at home every morning. BP fills my brain with too many obscure numbers derived from some nerds head deep inside some cave. I tend to ignore that crap. Show me a pitchers hits to innings pitched, his strikeouts to walks ratio, his ERA, his age and his size… and I’ll tell you whether he is a prospect or not.