Realistic Return for Holliday and Atkins?
by LW33 on Oct 28, 2008 12:40 PM MDT
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PrintWhat are people's thoughts here? Will will be able to get a young #2 starter type for Matty like an Ervin Santana, or Francisco Liriano? How about for Garret? One deal I would like to see them make would be Barmes and Atkins for Liriano and a good minor league OF. Not worried really about dealing these two as it will allow us the be real players in an interesting FA pool, when the economy is in shambles, which will affect the majority of the players. Orlando Hudson is a real possibility at 31 years of age and he would improve the top of our lineup and our defense. The key to dealing these guys is landing potential top of the rotation pitchers which will help this team immensely by allowing Cook and Francis to pitch from more natural slots in the rotation like 3 and 4, not to mention Jimenez throwing from the 5th spot and De La Rosa becoming a lefty specialist outta the pen.
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I'm not sure
that they will get Liriano back for Atkins/Barmes. I think teams have valid concerns over Atkins’ Home/Road splits, and Barmes doesn’t have a ton of value. I think they are much more likely to get prospects or a back/middle of the rotation starter. I still think the Twins could be a match – but it would maybe be more of a Blackburn/Perkins type – which to be honest I would be okay with, straight up for Atkins. Either of those are controllable, and a better option than what was being slotted in during the last season in the 4/5 spot. I do agree with you that if these trades are going to happen, that the earlier the better, so the Rockies are not left in the dark with the FA market. I would hope to see something happen at the GM meetings next week (which are much earlier this year).
Feel free to disagree PR.
Return on Atkins and Holliday
well, prospects have increased in value, as many teams are trying to stay competitive on a limited budget. So it depends on the fit. The Rockies have extra middle infield prospects they can throw in to a deal.
I think Atkins could bring an Ervin Santana type, but not Liriano who will be untouchable. Atkins has very good average over the last 3 years, and is proven bat. Lack of pop keeps him from being a great middle of the line up guy, but he’s better than most. I think he gets a starter but no ace, and a couple of good prospects, though they might be AA or lower.
Holliday, should demand more. Even with only one year left. Many teams will be thinking they can woo him after he plays for them for a year, and he’ll re-sign. He’s a superstar, an All-Star, with 30-25 type stats. Those bring top dollar. You need one more big bat to get you that title, here he is, I think he could get a +1 pitching prospect, plus several more.
Personally, I hope O’dowd and the scouts get teams to throw in some minor league pitching arms, that are ready for a bull pen spot.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
I look at Matt Holliday
and I believe that he will win an MVP award before his career is done. At the very least, he’s the type of player that can consistently be a legit MVP contender. So what should a team get in return for an MVP? The answer should be a legit Cy Young contender. Now I know that isn’t realistic, because good pitching is harder to find than good hitting. But this tells us that the Rockies will never be able to get equal value for Holliday. Not to mention the fact that every potential suitor will bring up Matt’s home/road splits and the fact that he’s represented by Scott Boras. At that point equal value is out the window and the Rockies are on their way to getting fleeced. I feel the same holds true for Atkins, but to a lesser extent.
The best that Rockies fans can hope for is for a couple of big market teams to get into a heated bidding war over one or both of these players. If two big teams like the Yankees and Red Sux get caught up in raising the price just to prevent the other team from making the deal, the Rockies would reap the benefits. Aside from that scenario, I fear that a potential MVP will be leaving Denver only to be replaced by an over-hyped package of prospects that might or might not pan out.
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
Agreement
I’m with you in believing that O’Dowd will never get equal return for Big Daddy. Because of that, I have been changing my thinking some with the belief that he will be with the team through the entire 2009 season. The scouting department has been salivating over the possibility of having as many as 6 top 50 picks in the next 2 drafts. This may be too much to pass up for Danny Boy unless he gets an offer way too good to pass up.
As for Atkins… I bet every bloody team that O’Dowd talks to about Garrett would rather chat about Ian Stewart instead. They may even offer some nice packages that might be enticing but when the subject is changed over to what he could get for Atkins.. the deal gets lame real quick. That being said, I think Dan will eventually find a nice match for Garrett… like a middle of the rotation type pitcher and a couple mid level prospects or a bullpen pitcher from the Angels, Mariners or the Red Sox.
My thoughts on 2009
Expanding the topic of this thread a little:
1) Trade Atkins for whatever you can get for him. I don’t think his trade value will ever be higher, since he is just going to get more expensive and his ceiling will become more apparent to everyone. I’d be thrilled with an Ervin Santana-type of return, but would be fine with someone who can throw 200 innings of 4.00 ERA ball with a few cost controlled years left.
2) Don’t trade Holliday. I think trading him now is waving the white flag for 2009. Wait until the end of June and trade him once our playoff prospects become apparent. About the same timing as the CC Sabathia trade this year sounds good. That should still net you somebody’s top prospect, as it did with Laporta this year.
3) Promote Fowler and platoon him with Spilly at CF.
4) Trade Willy T. Some old-school team will see those 70 SBs and overpay.
5) Pool all our available cash and go for a significant free agent piece. DON’T split the budget into pieces for mediocre trash heap guys with experience (see Kip Wells and Luis Vizcaino). I’m thinking Dempster, Lowe, Fuentes, or Sheets. The terms of contracts required by those guys may be unrealistic, but I’d look at it real hard.
6) Don’t play Yorvit more than twice a week.
7) Get Spilly into the lineup 4 of 6 days, playing LF, CF, RF and 1B. Sit Helton as necessary. Spilly should really have a full-time opportunity, and would in most organizations.
8) July 1 – if 2B is the black hole we predict it is and the team is in contention, go get Brian Roberts. He’s in the last year of his deal, asking price shouldn’t be outrageous for the value he would bring to our weakest position.
9) Keep Helton out of the middle of the order – bat him 2nd or 7th. Not that this will make a huge difference but it just drives me crazy seeing him batting cleanup.
Agree
With almost everything you say.
1) As I said above, I don’t see an Ervin Santana type as realistic – but your wish of someone who can throw nearly 200 innings of 4.00 ball I think is reasonable.
5) Agree – except for Fuentes – for his cost, a team of of the Rockies projected budget should not spend 10mil on someone who is going to only throw 60ish innings. I worry about Sheet’s health (and think he’ll come at a discount, as everyone will have the same worry), and think Dempster is a tad overrated, although solid I wonder what his innings increase in 2008 will result in next season?
Everything else I am with you on. I do think we have a slight surplus of OF’s – and could stand to see one go for something we need (bullpen arm maybe?) I don’t really know enough to say who has trade value and who doesn’t – between Spilly, Smith, Sully etc.
more
Just saw HeltonFan’s projections for 2009 and they currently show the Rockies winning the NL West. Of course this is without assigning free agents to any team and certainly the Dodgers will find somebody(s) to spend their $50M on, but I don’t see trading Holliday this offseason as a smart move given how wide open this division is.
Every year I watch the World Series and think to myself “Man, a great bullpen is what separates the good from the great teams.” So I don’t think spending the money on Fuentes would be a waste, considering what alternatives we have to spend that money on. I am pessimistic about getting a frontline starter on the free agent market, so I want whatever money we spend to have an impact and Fuentes is a known commodity that would help us build a sweet bullpen. Fuentes, Corpas & Bucky + a solid supporting cast makes me feel very good for 2009.
Of course this assumes that we do have money to spend – I have no idea where the Rockies are budget-wise. The cost of their core players is going up significantly this year due to arbitration and contractual increases, after all.
The one benefit of potentially trading Holliday this offseason is that we would finally get to see what Spilly can do with a full time gig. Methinks we’ve got a lot of value there.
The pitcher you are profiling in point one
could be one of Slowey, Blackburn, or Baker from the Twins. Truthfully, any of the three would be a good get. Baker’s good year probably makes him off limits, and I would think the Rockies would prefer Blackburn anyways for his sinker slider combo.
The problem with Atkins is that there is a huge gap between his perceived value and his actual value. Many teams will notcie this and shy away, so the pool of prospective buyers for Atkins dwindles down to just teams that place more emphasis on scouting or needs than stats or value.
I still believe you move both Atkins and Holliday now. The new Rockies core is still young, highly talented and under control for many years. We don’t need to pretend that the window closes when Holliday and Atkins leave. The WS Rockies weren’t really as young a team as people made them out to be, but next year’s team should be a legit young team with quality players playing pre-arb years.
I think you go ahead and cut the cord, as Holliday’s status could be an easy distraction or crutch for O’Dowd or Hurdle to fall back on.
The big mistake would be retaining Atkins and pushing Stewart to left field. Teams without superstar sluggers that still find success are generally teams with few holes and net positives around the diamond. Pushing an inferior glove to third and a possibly inferior glove to left field already puts the defense behind the eight ball. A good Rockies team next year will need to be a good defensive team to make plays behind pitchers that pitch to groundball contact (Jimenez, Cook, possibly Morales and even Chacin). At a minimum, you have to move Atkins.
Here's another option for our free agent dollars
I agree that Dempster, Lowe and Sheets will require contract lengths that we won’t be comfortable with.
So how about Randy Johnson? Made $10M in Arizona last year, and is one year older. Why don’t we offer him 2 years at $20M. That is better than Arizona is likely to offer, and a tremendous value if he stays healthy.
Before you scoff, read this brief from fangraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-randy-johnson/
New Holliday rumor
FWIW, pulled this off the ESPN Rockies board Wed. evening, 10/29…
(by brucecrew3244)
I was in Airzona last week playing in the Men’s Senior Baseball League World Series. (Great time!) Played 2 games at Reds/Indians fields in Goodyear, Az. Reds new Spring Training Facility. The complex is in the middle of nowhere and for at least a 2-3 years I thinks Reds fans will be disappointed with the change from Sarasota.
During our Series I attended 4 Arizona Fall League games and through some of my teammates met 1/2 dozen scouts. We not only watched games with them, we also had some drinks at Houston’s in Scottsdale with them. They were talking about the free agent market in general (very weak according to them) and who might go where.
When I asked what they had heard about the Reds plans they said the Reds were all over Matt Holliday. They apparently like him far more than Texeria. He said Reds have told Rocks they want both Adkins and Holliday and would move a combination of Bailey, EE, Stubbs, Cueto, Maloney and surprisingly Phillips. Not ALL 5 but some combination.
The other very surprising comment was the Reds were also looking at re-signing Dunn to a long term deal if they can’t trade for Holliday. If they go the Dunn route, they would then look for another corner outfielder.
The biggest suprise to me in all this is the Reds would consider moving Phillips. I do not agree with that move. I would trade Cueto, Bailey and EE for Holliday and Atkins. Then go get a FA pitcher and corner outfielder.
WHOA!
If the reds would move Phillips…and that’s a big if….I’d take him and Cueto and be happy. That is a young ace type, and a starting 2ndbase, that could be an impact bat either at the top of the line up or in the middle, as the Reds played him.
I’m not excited about Bailey, as he’s a little to soft throwing, and pitches to too much contact at the moment for me to think he works in Coors Field (or the Great American Bandbox for that matter)
Now if they would throw in a Dickerson or a Bruce….I think we got a trade. (I think the Rockies need a power hitting corner OF, as Spillly should play CF, Hawpe will be moving to 1st in a couple of years, and while I like Seth Smith, we really haven’t seen what he can do over a long period, and he’s a little old for a prospect)
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
Fun to think about
Let’s review the contract status of these players, courtesy of Cot’s:
B. Phillips – Signed for 3 more years at 22.5M total, with a 12M club option in 2012.
E. Encarnacion – Service time = 3.085, first year arbitration case this offseason
H. Bailey – Service time = 1.041
J. Cueto – Service time = 1
M. Maloney (LHP) – minor league contract
D. Stubbs (OF) – minor league contract (8th overall pick in 2006 draft)
Initial thoughts are that Phillips and Cueto would be a nice return – impact players at controlled costs still on the upswing of their careers. Don’t see why we need Encarnacion. If they throw in Maloney or Stubbs I’m sold.
Had a nice comment all written out but somehow it didn't post
Don’t have the energy to rewrite it…
I'll try again.
Let me throw out just two stats:
1) Clint Barmes 2008 OPS: .790
2) Brandon Phillips 2008 OPS: .754
Phillips had the big 2007 where he went 30/30, but even that year his OPS was only .816. Honestly he’s a better fantasy player than a run producer. Plus he is owed 22M over the next three years. I’ll stop with this: his #1 comparable through age 27 is Khalil Greene.
Not to say that the Reds don’t have players who could help us, but I’d be disappointed if the original “Franchise” was the major chip we got for Holliday.
If the deal starts with Cueto, and includes several other names listed above I’d be pretty interested. Perhaps we could even pry Votto or Bruce away from them.
A trade with the Reds that I could stomach....
Would be Cueto and Phillips and Maloney…and preferably Stubbs….that’s right four players and I hope that the Rocks would ask for that.
They would probably prefer five for two
if you’re looking at Moving both Atkins and Holliday in the same deal. That said, Phillips for Atkins is a wash to a degree, so you’re looking then at three players for Holliday, which is reasonable.
I’m a huge Drew Stubbs fan for the value he’d bring to Coors Field. He’d be my one choice for prospect that we’d get back.
I would be surprised to see the Reds part with both Cueto and Phillips in the same deal, but I would prefer him over Bailey, though my divide between the two isn’t as big as one might think.
I do not want Maloney, because we have enough of this type of pitcher, however I feel the return of Cueto and Stubbs is already pretty sufficient for one year of Holliday, so I would not compain here.
Good trade idea. I’m not convinced that the Reds are that serious yet, but they are certainly intruiging and I like where you’re going with this one.
Stubbs
I haven’t looked into it much but the impression that I got this year from glancing at minor league reports was that Stubbs was showing progress with the bat. The knock on him coming out of college was that he might never be able to hit major league pitching.
His bat is looking like it can play at the big league level (his defense was never in question)?
BTW, is the small gap between Cueto and Bailey the result of your faith in Bailey or are you down on Cueto compared to the general consensus?
Both on Cueto/Bailey
Cueto was still a very successful K pitcher pitcher, and wasn’t awful with walks, but his size and pitching tendencies make him homer prone, which is still a concern at Coors. Obviously Bailey has suffered what looks like a setback, but he doesn’t lack for talent by any means. Bailey’s fastball has more life, and his curve has more depth. I think people forget how young Bailey is, and how much more potential he still has. His stuff isn’t much behind a guy like Beckett, and I think Colorado could pu that moving fastball to good work in coaxing more groundballs out of Homer. I like the gamble of Bailey, because the payoff is huge, and I still believe the floor is only third starter. Cueto is safer and starting ready, so you have two solid options.
Stubbs biggest problem has been K’s, as he has every other tool you could ask for. I think Cinci has done some interesting things to correct this flaw, and I do consider it an improvement that his K rate stayed consistent, though high, through three levels this season.
Stubbs defense is his calling card. He was outstanding when I saw him with Texas, and many scouts have been quoted as saying he would be a Gold Glove candidate the day he stepped on a major league field.
Long term in Colorado, I could see Stubbs defer center to Fowler, since Stubbs’ arm plays much better in right, and could produce a ballhawking duo with the potential for 20/20 seasons, if not more from Stubbs.
Yanks
I think a ton has to do with what happens in FA. I don’t see any deal I like enough for both Matt and Atkins and you could sign one long term by getting rid of one of them. If the Yankees get Texiera and/or CC I don’t think the Rockies will get the return that could come out of a bidding war between the Yankees wanting to win in their new stadium and needing that middle of the order bat.
It seems like there has been a lot of rumors about a smaller team (Blue Jays, Nats, etc.) on the Holliday sweepstakes.
Holliday/Nelson to A's
for…
Ryan Sweeney
Greg Smith or Dana Eveland
brett anderson
vin mazzaro
brad ziegler
andrew carignan
santiago casilla
Kudos to this poster
You win the “closest to the pin” award!
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