Saturday Rockpile: NL West bullpen first look; Third base Rox best opportunity
Let me start by pointing out the top relievers for each NL playoff team in 2008 by WXRL, a stat used by Baseball Prospectus which is a more effective way of measuring relievers than saves or ERA. The numbers represent a value of how many wins over a replacement level reliever each pitcher was:
Chicago
- Carlos Marmol 5.152
- Kerry Wood 2.232
- Sean Marshall 0.617
Philadelphia
- Brad Lidge 7.591
- J.C. Romero 2.227
- Ryan Madson 2.002
- Chad Durbin 1.751
Los Angeles
- Corey Wade 2.841
- Hong-Chi Kuo 2.714
- Jonathan Broxton 2.216
- Takashi Saito 1.947
Milwaukee
- Salomon Torres 3.016
- Carlos Villanueva 1.469
- Brian Shouse 1.053
Los Angeles and Philadelphia both had deep pens, with their fifth best reliever rating better than the third best from either NL Central team. Let's look at the Rockies:
Colorado
- Brian Fuentes 3.619
- Taylor Buchholz 2.528
- Ryan Speier 0.720
The Rockies bullen in 2008 was more like a run of the mill squad than an NL elite one, and if they didn't make up the difference in the rotation like the Cubs and Brewers did, than the end result of the season shouldn't be surprising. Still, believe it or not, 2007 was much the same, just substitute Manny Corpas and Matt Herges' names for Fuentes and Buchholz. Here are Huston Street's numbers over the last four seasons:
- 2005: 4.356
- 2006: 3.260
- 2007: 2.234
- 2008: 1.943
Okay, so there's an obvious bad direction here, which is fodder for the naysayers, but even 2008 showed him to be a valuable reliever. Whether he remains so depends on his ability to reverse that trend. What reason do we have to expect that he might? Better health will be a start, switching to a weaker league with teams more unfamiliar with him will also help. Street's still a pretty young pitcher at 25, so there isn't a lot of reason not to expect some sort of bounce-back in 2009 to his career norm (he averages a 2.948 WXRL over those four seasons). If we don't trade him before the start of the season, we should expect to see him once more be at least a two win reliever in Denver.
If the trend continues downward, we'll know we've gotten ourselves a dud on our hands, but there should be enough time to figure that out before the July trading deadline where he would still be considered of value for many GM's. Street's beauty is a reputation that hasn't been too sullied by moments of underperformance. For a quality bullpen next season, the Rockies are hoping that Street and Buchholz maintain or improve their 2008 levels of performance and that either or both of Luis Vizcaino (2.081 WXRL in 2007) or Manny Corpas can return to their 2007 level. How is this an upgrade over 2008? Before last season the main hope for three 2+ win relievers was in Corpas, Viz and a bounceback from Fuentes, with the idea that maybe Casey Weathers would be contributing as well by the end of the season. So this isn't an appreciably more comfortable position to be in, but compared to where we were with the pen three weeks ago, banking solely on returns of Corpas and Viz, it's a little easier to see how we could pull it off.
Arizona's bullpen does not have the lights out leader that Lidge or Marmol were last season. Neither do they have the quality depth that Los Angeles has so they are in a similar boat to the Rockies, albeit with fewer pitchers who have been 2+ win relievers in the past. They are hoping that losses of Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon are made up for by a rebound by Jon Rauch and a step forward by Leo Rosales or Jailen Peguero among others. Juan Morillo is a better horse to bet on than either, so the Rockies still have the edge in prospect depth despite losing Casey Weathers for next season and Pedro Strop altogether. There is a high quality wild card for the D-backs in 2008 first rounder Daniel Schlereth, and his addition combined with Strop's loss for the Rockies has helped Arizona make up considerable ground in this department.
San Francisco's bad relievers ate too much into the work of their relatively few good arms in 2008. I don't think they have enough quality arms to change that in 2009. The Dodgers look to once again be in the best position as far as relief work goes, the Rockies will need to have several things go right for this to change and make up ground.
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The Rockies chances of trading Garrett Atkins will take a hit if Minnesota lands Casey Blake as a free agent, the good news is that this would leave the Dodgers relatively weak at third base. Last season, Blake had an EQA of .281, with Blake DeWitt lagging in the Garrett Atkins/Mark Reynolds neighborhood at .261. Ian Stewart was on the tier in between at .269. Going forward, Stewart can probably figure to be closer to Blake's contribution next season, DeWitt may make some gains as well, I can't say I have the same kind of confidence in Reynolds given his disinclination to change his approach at the plate. If you look at the cast of characters for next year, you'll see that third base is one position that we need a stronger contribution than LA or Arizona from if we want to win the division in 2009 or even in subsequent years.
At catcher we hope Iannetta is close to Martin, but expecting him to be much better is probably foolish. Arizona hopes Snyder isn't too far behind those two, but he's clearly the third rung. At first base, Helton vs. Tracy works okay, but Loney's moving ahead. At second, who knows where LA or AZ are going, but the Rockies will only get average production there unless they open the piggy bank. Shortstop should be another push, but that's only if Tulo rebounds to catch up with Drew. If LA re-signs Furcal, the Dodgers will have an edge when he plays. In right, Ethier was very good, Hawpe a tier below him, and Upton a tier below that. Long term though, this isn't a great position for us, similarly to catcher for the D-backs, and that's one of the reasons why Carlos Gonzalez was seen as a key pick-up. If his bat develops into his raw talent, the Rockies will stay competitive with the other two teams. In left field for 2009, we're competitive as long as the Dodgers don't sign Manny, and that will also have a dramatic effect on center as next season's basic formula is:
- Matt Kemp>Chris Young>Carlos Gonzalez>Andruw Jones or Juan Pierre
Long term, our relative position improves with Fowler.
What I'm trying to point out here is that at the end of the day, the one position where the Rockies should be able to expect a clear advantage in coming seasons over their divisional peers is third base. No pressure, Stewie.
Comments
Not to be nitpicky, but...
Snyder: .237/.348/.452, 334 AB, 79 H, 47 R, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 56 BB, 101 K, 22 doubles
Iannetta: .264/.390/.504, 333 AB, 88 H, 50 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 56 BB, 92 K, 22 doubles
Iannetta hit better for average, thanks to Snyder having a bit of a down year in that regard, but the rest of the difference in OBP can largely be attributed to Iannetta getting plunked 14(!) times. Does he have a similar effect to Holliday where he Iannetta-smashes things after a HBP? Anyway, the rest of the numbers are frighteningly similar. Since neither put up a 500 or 600 AB season, that nine hit difference (with an extra triple and two more home runs) adds a whopping 50 points to Iannetta’s slugging, but as you can see the gap isn’t really that mammoth.
Snyder: 22 of 71 baserunners (31), 0 errors, 7 passed balls
Iannetta: 12 of 41 baserunners (29), 0 errors, 6 passed balls
Snyder has a slight edge in putouts and assists as well, which is likely attributed to the fact that Brandon Webb is on the mound every five days. He also had more chances to throw out runners, thanks to Webb and Johnson being awful at holding runners, but only a small lead in percentage gunning them down. Again, though, the numbers are very familiar.
All this said, Iannetta certainly has the higher ceiling and I do think he’ll have a stronger 2009 than Snyder, maybe even surpassing Martin. One thing that threatens to change this is if Montero gets moved to third or gets dangled in a trade somehow, which would toss another 100 ABs or so Snyder’s way (history has shown that Robbie Hammock just doesn’t get much playing time behind the dish). Even so, I expect Iannetta to have a big year — I just don’t see where he’s clearly a rung above Snyder. Not yet.
By the way, just for funsies’ sake:
Martin: .280/.385/.396, 553 AB, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 90 BB, 83 K
Martin has better plate discipline and more speed on the basepaths, but can barely keep up in the power department with either of our catchers, despite 200 more ABs. The bunching at the top might be even closer than we realize, which is good for our teams and bad for the Dodgers.
by Azreous on
Nov 15, 2008 12:17 PM MST
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Both
Montero and Snyder have been mentioned in trade talks, but nothing more than “drawing interest.”
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
by PioneerSkies on
Nov 15, 2008 12:28 PM MST
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I don't think the difference is big enough to get much benefit in 2009
But EQA had them like this in 2008:
Iannetta .297
Martin .283
Snyder .270
It’s nine extra hits for Iannetta, but also nine extra K’s for Snyder, which will effect his ability to make up that ground in AVG. This combined with their ages makes it difficult to see Snyder keeping up, especially after next season, but even next year I can only see what gap there is widening a little. Iannetta is somewhat Biggioesque as far as getting plunked, he crowds the plate and has mastered that inward tilt to the ball, and added to a scouting report that says he’s vulnerable to inside FB’s, it makes for a perfect storm of conditions for decent HBP totals.
The real question for the Rockies and also the Dodgers is how they plan on keeping the bat in Iannetta’s or Martin’s hands as often as possible without burning their catchers out. If the D-backs trade either of their guys they will be in a similar boat, but given your weakness at second, I could see how it might be necessary.
by Rox Girl on
Nov 15, 2008 1:00 PM MST
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Fair enough.
That seems to especially be a concern for the Dodgers, now that Martin has churned out consecutive 540+ AB seasons. And yeah, we’re very much in trouble at second, unfortunately. It’s not like C – Snyder, 3B – Montero, 2B – Reynolds solves very much even if that far-fetched plan comes to fruition, especially on defense.
Should be interesting to see what happens. If the Dodgers lose both Blake and Manny, it’ll make for an open division next year. Can we overcome an anemic offense and questionable back end of the rotation? Can you guys replace Holliday (and maybe Atkins) in the lineup adequately and get a return to form from Ubaldo/Francis? The answers to that might decide the NL West.
by Azreous on
Nov 15, 2008 1:15 PM MST
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That's what I'm seeing, sort of
Replacing Atkins in the lineup won’t be difficult since Stewart’s already an upgrade and while Spilborghs is certainly a downgrade from Holliday, he’s not going to be a liability for us. Really, I think the Rockies crucial lineup questions are at shortstop and first base, if we get something like 2007 Helton and Tulo we’ll be right in the thick of things, if we get their 2008 versions, we should probably expect the same results for the season.
As long as JDLR is for real, I think our rotation is a bit more stable heading into 2009 than it was for 2008, that might help some, but certainly not enough if the Dodgers re-sign Ramirez/Furcal/Blake and possibly not enough to make up for your switch from Johnson to Scherzer. Max is a difficult nut for me to crack as far as my expectations next season, but I’m worried about him from an opposing fan standpoint. Still, losing RJ doesn’t help you any. I could see you guys go 60-40 on the days when Webb/Haren/Scherzer start but 21-41 on the other days.
by Rox Girl on
Nov 15, 2008 1:40 PM MST
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There's still a crater risk at second base
And though Colorado’s two young centerfileders are immensely talented, there’s always a chance they spend another year on the floor before taking a step up. I don’t believe they should do anything about centerfield, but I would hope they’d add another option at second base.
Barmes is poised for a decline. His BABIP was over 30 points higher than his career average, his line drive% was up almost 2%, and the HR/FB rate was up a tick as well. His K/9 and BB/9 showed no difference from his career numbers. Statistically, Barmes just didn’t make any sustainable gains, and you have to worry about the BABIP.
All this is in addition to questions of just how good Barmes was last season, as there’s a notable difference in his home road splits. Bill James suggests a line of .274/.309/.413, that’s Willy Taveras with a few more XBH’s. Offensively, you’d like to project Baker into more starts, but his defense was taxed as is (-4 wasn’t bad, but I can’t imagine his range would improve playing everyday), and his value is higher in the power supersub role. Baker’s propensity for K’s doesn’t jive well with a lineup that already has enough of them, but coming from players with superior production or talent.
I’ve seen no inclination that the Rockies will pursue a superior option at second since September rumors of an Uggla pursuit. Nevertheless, second is the one position the Rockies risk not fielding a player that can produce above league average numbers, and they could really take the pressure off of third, short, center, and first by adding a bonafide talent here.
Could Baltimore consider trading Roberts this off-season? I’d do Atkins- Nelson or Young- pitching prospect for him if they’d be willing.
by David OhNo on
Nov 15, 2008 8:25 PM MST
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I see where you're coming from,
And I agree that the team could really improve their chances with an upgrade, but the Rockies don’t appear inclined to go that direction. Given what we have, I think a three headed platoon similar to what the Cubs have done with DeRosa, Fontenot and Cedeno might be in order and the result should work well for the Rockies. Baker should be starting against all LHP’s (.930 OPS) and most soft-tossing righties (1.030), EY2 should start against power RHP’s (.410 OBP against RHP’s last season, .520 in the AFL) and Barmes should start when defense might be more in order (such as when Cook starts for the Rockies). I just don’t know if Hurdle’s able to see the benefit in splitting it up like that, though.
by Rox Girl on
Nov 15, 2008 9:37 PM MST
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CDI
needs to catch between 130 & 140 games this season. Posada and Varitek have been catching that many games well into their 30’s, so I’m sure Chris will be able to handle the workload.
by 4thturn on
Nov 15, 2008 2:54 PM MST
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Unforunately,
Hurdle has some weird kind of loyalty to Terriblealba and will make sure he gets 60 starts or so. One can only hope there is another GM in the league dumb enough to take him off our hands.
by Narcoleptico on
Nov 16, 2008 9:57 AM MST
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