Saturday Rockpile: Wynegar possible for hitting coach vacancy, D-backs downgrading at second

by Rox Girl on Nov 22, 2008 9:36 AM MST in Rockpile Comment 14 comments

I'm working on a longer piece looking at the development of the young cores for the NL West teams, but it's taking longer than I thought it would, so I'll post this for now.

The Rockies have received permission from the Yankees to talk to Butch Wynegar for their vacant hitting coach position. Wynegar joins Don Baylor and Greg Colbrunn as interviewees for the position.

The Snakes have offered Ramon Vazquez a contract. Vazquez will be a clear downgrade from Orlando Hudson, both offensively and defensively, and might not be much of an upgrade from Chris Burke or Augie Ojeda. Clearly Arizona is hoping Vazquez is able to repeat his production with Texas from last season, but an anomalous BABIP to his career leaves considerable doubt this will be the case. While the Rockies now currently project to have the division's best second baseman (so long as they don't choose to give the job to Clint Barmes), they are not out of the woods yet with both the Dodgers and Giants pursuing Hudson to some degree.

2009 Marcel Projected wOBA for NL West second basemen:

Jeff Baker .335
Blake DeWitt .331
Matt Antonelli .328
Ramon Vazquez .320
Kevin Frandsen .316

Orlando Hudson .346
Clint Barmes .307

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Baker

How much time will Baker get if his bat comes and goes like 08, and where in the batting order will he hit? It is encouraging that his fielding percentage is better than Frandsen’s and Vazquez’s and same as DeWitt’s (albeit all in comparison to their smaller sample sizes).

I’m perplexed at Barmes having a predicted OBP of .307. He and Baker finished with the same OPS+ last season (99). Their K/BB ratios were about the same. Also, Barmes is a much better fielder, according to David Pinto’s 2008 PMR. The one offensive advantage Baker would give, however, is that if his power matches the reputation he once had, he could slide somewhere into the 2-3 or 5-6 spots and make up for some run production that is lost between Stewart and Holliday, assuming Stewart is in the lineup full time (or Stewart and Atkins). Barmes is definitely more of a 1-2 or 7-8 hitter.

by deacs on Nov 22, 2008 12:53 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

This is a predicted wOBA, which entails total offense in a more accurate way than OPS

For a primer read this.

There are a few reasons Baker would be projected to be better than Barmes in 2009, Barmes was more lucky with BABIP (.328 in 2008 vs a career .290) than Baker (.327 in 2008 vs. a career .321), he’s two years older and in his decline, and he swings at considerably more balls outside the strike zone (35.7% in 2008) than Baker (24.7%) does. The more I look at Barmes’ 2008 season, the less reason I have to be optimistic he’ll be able to repeat it.

by Rox Girl on Nov 22, 2008 1:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

wOBA

Yeah, I get the idea behind wOBA (and BABIP), and even slightly above career average production from Baker would good out of the 2B offensively. However, his defense is a potential liability relative to Barmes. I haven’t looked at how many runs he’d cost at the position vs. gain the the bat vis a vis Barmes, but I assume much like their offensive numbers, they’ll come out even next year (although beyond next year, and possibly even in 2009, Barmes drops off from even his earnest production levels).

However, the point is: can Baker edge towards the middle of the lineup, either at the 3 or 6, or, assuming Tulowitzki hits 2, does Baker need to hit 7-8? Neither Baker or Barmes solves the leadoff spot, and if both have to hit 7 or 8 then neither excites me more than Jason Nix did going into last year.

by deacs on Nov 22, 2008 7:50 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Nor,

if past prediction levels indicate anything, does Baker provide anything especially redeeming out of the 7-8 holes besides just not being Torrealba or Willy T. And he probably wouldn’t even match the ’07 levels obtained from those spots (Tulo and decent Torrealba).

by deacs on Nov 22, 2008 7:53 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Baker vs Barmes

Adding Barmes’ defensive value could make them nearly a wash, that wOBA projection gives Baker about a 16 run advantage, which is probably a safe estimate of how much difference they’d have defensively next season, but I have to tell you that I have more worry about Barmes’ offensive projection from Marcel overstating his value for the reasons I mentioned above, such as his inability to lay off non-strikes and his high BABIP, to a slightly worse than typical home/road split. At the same time, however, I could see an argument that Barmes could be 20+ runs better than Baker defensively. I think a judicious platoon could be in order (I’ve said before that Barmes should start with Cook) but Baker should get the bulk of the starts.

As for the lineup, the Hardball Times has Baker hitting .272/.336/.477, which indicates he’d be about equal to our 7th/8th slots last season except with more power. Barmes projects to a .216/.313/.417 line, which means that the same would be true with him in the 1st/2nd slots compared to 2008, but that’s hardly a good thing considering those were the least productive slots we had last year outside #9. I’d think the ideal Hurdle constructed (meaning I know GA’s at third) lineup should we keep Atkins would be something along the lines of

1. Spilborghs CF
2. Tulo SS
3. Helton 1B or Stewart LF
4. Atkins 3B (if he’s rebounding like projections say, if he’s still declining, we’re in trouble, but we should drop him to #6 in the lineup in favor of Iannetta)
5. Hawpe RF
6. Iannetta C or Baker 2B (this was about as effective as #7/#8 last season, so he’s an upgrade here, too)
7. Stewart or Helton
8. Barmes 2B or Torrealba C or Gonzalez CF (heaven help us if all three are starting at once)
9. Pitcher

If we trade Atkins, I’d bump Iannetta to cleanup and Stewart to sixth.

by Rox Girl on Nov 22, 2008 8:57 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

THT

I’ve got big problems with THT’s projections for Baker/Barmes, which must be missing something, and it’s definitely got to do with overinflated OBPs relative to batting averages (when stats guys devalue batting average they miss a crucial point – that BA is still worth something relative to OBP, especially when past performance is accounted for). Given Barmes/Baker K/BB ratio, they will not produce that much of a disparity between BA/OBP – they’re not Adam Dunn or Jack Cust). Baker’s OBP is too high in that scenario, or Barmes’s BABIP is too low. I don’t know the numbers in this case, so I can’t say, but I’m guessing, like I said earlier, that they are going to be similar offensively while Barmes saves a bunch more runs defensively. But maybe CarGo turns out to be ready and Hawpe can move to LF, and that saves a bunch of runs. Then it’d be great to see if Baker’s potential power comes through from the 7th spot.

Also, if Atkins is traded and a middle of the order batter isn’t recieved in return or signed in free agency, there is no difference between the Rockies of 09 (in your bottom scenario) and the Giants of 08. Oh, except the pitching. And that’s frightening.

by deacs on Nov 23, 2008 12:18 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not only THT's predictions that are saying so

Barmes outperformed his career BABIP significantly in 2008, Baker did not, and yet they were about even in this department for the season. What makes you think that Barmes’ will be higher than Baker’s next year? There’s simply no reason to think that Barmes can continue to get as many hits from swings outside of the strike zone as he did last season, he’s not Vlad Guerrero or Pablo Sandoval, and since he swings so much more often than Baker at pitches that should be taken, he’s not going to collect the walks either, so how is his OBP going to stay even except by luck? There’s just little reason to expect this to be the case. In fact, I see Barmes as a real threat to have a sub .300 OBP with just a tiny amount of bad luck on balls in play which would imply an absolute crater in the offense, just like he was in 2006. It’s this risk that makes me think the upgrade in defense may not be worth the cost in the lineup, and I’d much rather take the steady hand.

The differences between my bottom scenario and the Giants of 2008
Iannetta’s much better Molina
Hawpe’s better than Winn
Stewart’s better than whatever they were using
Baker’s better than Durham

All four are much more likely to hit a homerun or get on base than anything the Giants threw out there and Spilborghs and Helton are huge OBP upgrades at their positions over the Giants, even Seth Smith is a better corner, the only position we’d have a lesser player in would be center field, so your comparison seems completely off base.

by Rox Girl on Nov 23, 2008 6:44 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Barmes

I don’t have a subscription to baseball prospectus, and I am fond of discounting Barmes’s 2006 season (not completely, but I’d weight down the importance of it as a long-term indicator). The whole of the 2005 season, pre and post-dear meat, is a fair indicator. It’s pretty close to what he did this year, although a little worse. Yet, his BABIP in ’05 was .299 vs. .330 for ’08. And the numbers were only slightly off, not a nosedive as is projected for ’09.

When many metrics that account for total offense, as well as those that take into account off and def like WS, rated Barmes and Baker equally (with Barmes ahead in WS), I tend to see 90 point gaps in BA and OBP for players that don’t walk and wonder how bad at math I must be to not understand it.

I mean, I hope Baker brings the thunder stick this year. And presumably with more experience he’ll get better at a position he never played before this year. Maybe he’ll be our Edgardo Alfonzo.

Can we trade Barmes for Brian Bannister. With Tulo behind him and a good GB%, he’d be great. Smith and Banny – 4 and 5, plus insurance if Bad Jorge comes back. Boom. Baker and Bannister = World Series.

by deacs on Nov 23, 2008 9:51 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Observation

Even ignoring all of the projections have you watched the two players in question hit?

The end results of thier at-bats might be up for debate but the hitter with the better tools is pretty obvious (both because Baker shows flashes of having a plus bat and because Barmes looks so horrible a lot of the time).

by MADness on Nov 23, 2008 1:21 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I've also

seen Baker swing, and despite the fact that he is a “fastball hitter” who sees fastballs 60% if the time, he spends a lot of time looking at them or swinging above or below them. I’m not saying Barmes is anything special or even better than Baker. With the free agent market consisting of older players looking for longer contracts, the Rockies should stick with internal options. I just think Barmes is as much a part of that next year as Baker. Again, projections aside, past performance shows similar results offensively, and a significant edge for Barmes defensively.

If Baker can hit .280/.330 with 15-20 HRs, terrific. I hope he does, but if not, I hope the Rockies don’t waste as much time on him as they did with Nix last year. Either make Stewart the 2B going in, or make it known that Baker is the preliminary candidate going into spring training.

by deacs on Nov 23, 2008 5:29 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Barmes is dangerous

there are some pretty ugly skeletons in this closet that the Rockies conveniently fail to ignore.

For starters, Barmes is one of the guys that simply kill you away from Coors, he hit .249/.281/.363 away from Denver last year, and when you consider that the majority of his starts came in the first or second slot in the order, he was a major outs drain on the offense last year away from home.

Beyond splits, Barmes was better than his career averages in BABIP, linedrive , and HR/FB, which all pertain to fluke year. The walk rate isn’t improving and the K rate, though better than ’07, was heading in the wrong direction as well.

Several signs indicate Barmes could be headed for trouble in 2009, and should probably only be used in starts by Cook, where his plus/minus rating of +9 at second holds a lot of value with a GB pitcher on the mound.

However, this doesn’t mean I am a proponent of starting Baker full time or the majority of the time either. Jeff’s a considerably worse defender than Barmes with a -4, and I can’t imagine this number improving, as he isn’t a young player breaking into a new position and doesn’t appear to naturally hold a second base physique. So Baker needs to be considerably better than Barmes offensively to start more than Clint. Yet again, Baker is 28 and unlikely to take further steps offensively. Then, you hold Baker’s splits and career numbers under the microscope and he looks just as concerning. Baker was more brutal than Barmes away from Coors, and though it’s harder to compare his ‘08 rates to career rates due to small sample sizes, they were higher than past figures. Where Clint’s best virtues appear to be in a defensive sub role, Baker’s may be more along the lines of an offensive sub/pinch hitter.

On the surface, they should complement each other, but that doesn’t make up for the complete lack of road offense and park inflation on their numbers. Second base is a concerning sink hole with no good answer inside the organization. Maybe Chris Nelson can soon handle it, but that would require too much faith in him doing something he hasn’t done but one season, hit. Perhaps EYJ? Well, you could overlook the butcher aspect of his defense if he was a sure thing offensively, but even there his Tulsa season was just ok and not great. His peak translation from that year suggested he could be a .255/.348/.366 hitter (meaning a little more patient Willy Taveras). (For comparisons sake, Fowler, who actually was great in Tulsa, had a peak translation of .306/.404/.531, those are all star caliber line stats)

Bottom line, the Rockies preparations for second base in ‘09 thus far look like nothing more than throwing a penny in a wishing well. There’s no certainty to grab onto and the most likely scenario in all cases here see the Rockies taking a downturn at the position, which wasn’t a strength to begin with.

by David OhNo on Nov 23, 2008 7:39 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

2008 all over again

Great to see them being proactive addressing glaring needs.

(starting pitching and 2nd base)

by MADness on Nov 23, 2008 8:08 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The good news is, if you could call it that,

And what I was pointing out with the post, is that without Hudson signing to an NL West squad, it’s hardly a strength anywhere else in the division, either. Javier Vazquez? Kevin Frandsen? The only player with upside is DeWitt for the Dodgers, and he too has some performance/effort skeletons in his closet and they may have to move him to third anyway. It’s not a huge drag on our playoff chances relatively, but taking advantage of what’s a divisional weakness would certainly would help us to bridge some more of the gap that the D-backs rotation or the Dodgers bullpen have.

I think we could get away with just one more piece, replacing Quintanilla with a left-handed (or at least decent vs RHP) bat that plays passable defense at second. This is why I really like the idea of EY2 being on the roster, because while he’s not an ideal starter there, either, he does fill a gap that Quintanilla hasn’t thus far and the combination of Baker/Barmes/Young could be at a competitive level. If Q shows he can hit RHP’s at a decent clip this spring, Young can be left in AAA for a season or two, but if there’s no further progress, than I think it’s best to go to the next left-handed option down the line until Nelson shows he’s ready.

by Rox Girl on Nov 24, 2008 6:39 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs