Saturday Rockpile: Projecting the Rockies 2009 Defense
The other day while writing about our left handed starters, I pointed out how costly the Rockies defense was to their competitiveness in 2008. In 2009, if we are to have any chance at all, this has to change. Using defensive projections from Sean Smith (infielders, outfielders) let's look at some of the possible alignments for 2009. This is one I think would be the Rockies ideal situation, with part of that ideal being Carlos Gonzalez' bat maturing quickly, so you could probably substitute Dexter Fowler's name if he does the same:
- 1B Helton +8
- 2B Baker -4
- SS Tulowitzki +11
- 3B Stewart +2
- LF Spilborghs 0
- CF Gonzalez +9
- RF Hawpe -15
I think Ian is a little underrated here defensively, but this arrangement already projects the Rockies a net positive of eleven runs (one win) on defense. If you believe that a porous defense cost the team fifty runs to the average in 2008, which I do, this change would be a six game swing from last season, meaning a close to .500 team without upgrades to our lineup or pitching staff.
Okay, here's what we look like keeping Atkins at third and moving Stewart to left, Spilborghs to center. I'm going to put Barmes in for Baker at second to make up for some of the defensive hit we'd take at other positions while upgrading offensively:
- 1B Helton +8
- 2B Barmes +7
- SS Tulowitzki +11
- Atkins -7
- LF Stewart ?
- CF Spilborghs -9
- RF Hawpe -15
We go from a plus 11 in the top example to a negative 11 here. Smith doesn't project either Stewart or Atkins in the outfield, but I'm going to assume Stewart plays around a Jeff Baker (-6) level and Atkins around a Manny Ramirez (-14) level. I've been suggesting that I'd rather move Atkins to left, keeping Stewart at third, which would amount to only a one run difference. That said, like I said in the first alignment, I think Stewart's capable of being a better than +2 third baseman, so it could be that the separation will be bigger than that. There's a pretty realistic variation on this Barmes as principal 2B, Spilly in center theme in the event of an Atkins trade, which looks like this:
- 1B Helton +8
- 2B Barmes +7
- SS Tulowitzki +11
- 3B Stewart +2
- LF Baker(-6)/Seth Smith (0)
- CF Spilborghs -9
- RF Hawpe -15
This would be a decently potent lineup, but we'd praying for groundballs all the time. Speaking of which, here's an alignment that Aaron Cook would probably love if he could hit like Micah Owings:
- 1B Helton +8
- 2B Barmes +7
- SS Tulowitzki +11
- 3B Stewart +2
- LF Smith +2
- CF Taveras +3
- RF Gonzalez +14
The Rockies would have a +47 in the field, but obviously it would not be worth it to lose Hawpe, Spilly and Baker's bats. Conversely, Cook would probably call his agent demanding a trade to Newark as long as it got him out of Denver if we settled on this arrangement as it's both an offensive and defensive sinkhole:
- C: Torrealba
- 1B: Baker -2
- 2B: Stewart +4
- SS: Quintanilla +5
- 3B: Atkins -7
- LF: Seth Smith +2
- CF: Ryan Spilborghs -9
- RF: Brad Hawpe -15
I added the catcher there just to emphasize how brutal things could get. There are a couple of anomalies thanks to small sample sizes in the projections so take a few of them with a grain of salt. The Stewart as a positive at second base projection is one of these. You can pretty much assume that over a full season that the number would tilt somewhere into the negative side of things. Similarly, Chris Iannetta is not going to be neutral at third base, and Dexter Fowler should be considerably better than the minus nine he's projected at in center.
Comments
I'll look at how the Rockies stack up defensively to the rest of the West
by Rox Girl on
Nov 29, 2008 9:38 AM MST
reply
actions
0 recs
Stewart
This just further reinforces how the Rockies can’t afford to keep Atkins.
They are going to have a sink hole in RF and if they go with the decent offensive option at second they will have a moderate defensive penalty there.
BTW, I have a really hard time buying into the whole Spilly as neutral in left field.
by MADness on
Nov 29, 2008 11:21 AM MST
reply
actions
0 recs
Great post
It’s hard to really gauge what the Rockies will do next season since they have so many questions marks with Atkins, Taveras, Gonzalez, and Stewart. As the offseason goes by, I’m starting to think it might not be too bad for the Rockies to start the season with Atkins and Taveras still around. This offseason has pretty much been a sellers market so far. It makes me wonder if we kept Atkins and Taveras around and they both got off to good starts, we could package them with Street to some eager contending team. Both Atkins (who stopped drawing walks) and Taveras had down seasons last year, particularly Taveras. If any team loses a 1b,3b or a cf (or just lacks a typical leadoff hitter), the Rox would be prime to make a deal.
I guess the December meetings could jump-start this sluggish offseason but so far, it’s been very quiet. Also, it seems like O’Dowd might be trying to trade off Atkins, Street, and Taveras one by one and I think the Rockies would get more if they were packaged…
Anyway, just throwing that out there…
by Resolution on
Nov 29, 2008 11:23 AM MST
reply
actions
0 recs













