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Wednesday Morning Rockpile: Would You Like To See Carl Crawford In A Rockies Uniform?

If the Tampa Bay Rays continue to pursue their interest in Matt Holliday, reports the Chicago Sun-Times, Carl Crawford would likely be involved.


G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008 - Carl Crawford 109 443 69 121 12 10 8 57 30 60 25 7 .273 .319 .400

2008 was Crawford's weakest season in the majors (not including his half-year in the majors in 2002). He did miss over half of August and all but two games in September due to a finger injury. Looking over his career numbers, we know that Crawford is a speedster who will steal plenty of bases with some power in his bat. His 18 homers in 2006 were a career high, but he's more likely to wind up barely in double-digits for that category. However, he doesn't walk all that much (his 37 in 2006 was a career high) and does have his fare share of strikeouts.

Wherever he plays, Crawford will play 2009 on a club option worth $8.25M and 2010 on another club option (if picked up) worth $10M.

Should Crawford be someone the Rockies look into acquiring for Holliday?

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With the Marlins always looking to exile their youngsters when they become too expensive, lefty Scott Olsen is likely to be moved this offseason. There are some temperament issue there and  those 59 homers allowed over the last two seasons are a bit worrisome. Going to Texas certainly won't help things for him. A year or two ago may have been the time for the Rockies to trade for him (which was rumored), but now. . . .

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Carl Pavano, a Rockie? If he signed, he'd probably reveal a little while later that he suffered an injury just before signing with the Rockies and didn't disclose it.

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Jhoulys Chacin--in the Rockies' bullpen at some point in 2009? It would seem to fit in with the mini-youth movement that will happen in 2009. It appears to be clearer as the offseason progresses that Dexter Fowler won't be handed anything entering Spring Training: He'll need to work to start in center on Opening Day.

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Matt Holliday gave an exclusive interview to the Denver Post. Here's what he had to say about the Rockies and the commitment to winning:

"I specifically don't want to spend my career collecting paychecks and having October off. I want to be in a situation where I feel like I can make the postseason every year, not only if the perfect storm comes together," Holliday said.

"I am not saying Colorado can't do that. But approaching free agency and making decisions about being somewhere long term, you have to consider more than money. The money gets to the point, it's a lot either way."

Yeah, but the only thing guaranteed for Holliday would be the money.  I guess we can read in between the lines and figure out what Matt is saying.

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Crawford

has hit and has stolen bases, but last year, was a big drop off. He’s had several seasons of 50 plus steals, but last years drop worries me that he’s lost that important step out of the box as he is 27. If so his value drops a bunch as well. It makes sense from Tampa’s side to dump his contract for Holliday’s contract for one year. It only makes sense on the Rockies side, if the real value is in prospects added to the deal, but Crawford would be the lead off hitter the Rockies need (assuming Tavares is gone as well). He doesn’t have the arm to play CF in Coors Field though, so he would have to play LF (I assume)

Carl Pavano talk…again? Ok, ok, bring him in as a non-roster invitee, minor league contract I guess is ok, but I don’t see how he makes the team, or stays on the field. Hell, while we are on this road, why not bring in Mark Prior, to make head lines, but never pitch?

I do like the idea of Chacin in the bullpen, to start his career. Actually I think a lot of young pitching stars would benefit from seeing the bright lights, and the atmosphere, with out the pressure of starting every 5th day. It’s a way to rush a kid, while limiting the damage done by rushing them.

And on those lines, I think one big key the Rockies in 09, will be the long reliever/6th starter spot, (which I personally think may be the most under-rated position on a big league team) and I’m really hoping F. Morales will step up to fill that position next year.

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Nov 5, 2008 9:30 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree with you here,

I’m a bit more bullish on Crawford, though. This would be a buy low situation and he would benefit two-fold by switching to Coors Field and the NL. If you look as last season as an anomaly in an otherwise fairly impressive and consistent career, he looks a lot better than if you look it as the beginning of his decline. I think the answer is probably somewhere in the middle of those two views, and that still ought to give us a pretty good outfielder for next season. With Holliday carrying the most weight, this sort of deal would probably look something like Crawford plus Edwin Jackson for Matt,

That would allow the Rockies to make a dangerous, deep and well balanced lineup, with an equal split between lefties and righties.

Crawford
Tulo
Stewart
Spillborghs
Hawpe
Iannetta
Helton
Baker

Situational managing against us would be futile. Our rotation would be Cook, Jimenez, Francis, Jackson, JDLR, which isn’t glitzy, but it’s not a lightweight, either. Just looking at it does make me think we could be competitive next year with some added bullpen help, and that’s before you get to an Atkins trade. At the very least this isn’t bad for an opening rumor to get other interested teams to open up their coffers.

by Rox Girl on Nov 5, 2008 10:11 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Carl Crawford? No way. Plus defender, but the dropoff in power, and his current contract status, make him not a good value, imho. He’d be out after 2010, and really, what would we have gained in the trade?

Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave

by Mondogarage on Nov 5, 2008 9:52 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think

anyone expects it to be a straight up trade, ‘cause you would be correct that the Rockies wouldn’t gain anything.

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Nov 5, 2008 10:09 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have irrational love

for Crawford, so this is a deal I’d be OK with…but not if its just Crawford and E. Jackson (who I think is interesting but a massive wildcard). I think this deal needs at least one bigtime prospect coming from TB as well.

by Teekalong on Nov 5, 2008 10:47 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Crawford is horribly overrated

He never walks, he has a career OBP of .330, career OPS+ of 101 (very deflated due to this year’s dropoff) – but he’s not really that good. Stolen Bases do not a leadoff hitter make.

If we don’t have a traditional High-On-Base-High-Steals kind of guy to bat leadoff, then we bat the guy with the best OBP first who isn’t a blatant 3 or 4 hitter.

Scott Olsen is a terrible addition for the Rockies, he’ll give up 50 HR this upcoming season.

Pavano wouldn’t be a bad experiment, if we don’t have to pay a lot for him.

I figure let Chacin start in the minors. It might be a waste of conditioning and development to dump him in our pen.

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by RockiesMagicNumber on Nov 5, 2008 4:18 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think

O’Dowd is suggesting he start the season in the ’pen, just that he could be in it later in the season.

"Never Surrender Dreams" - Inscription on J. Michael Straczynski's bench

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by Russ on Nov 5, 2008 5:00 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think he's less overrated now than he was before last season

When the Rays were asking for a package like we’re wanting for Holliday for him. I think this season’s fall has returned him to his proper valuation. Remember that Tampa overhyped him at the beginning and rushed him way too quickly to the majors, those first couple of seasons bring down his career averages more than where he’s likely at (somewhere in the OPS+ 105-112 range). He should be good for a .350 OBP for the next couple of seasons. In 2008 he had a BABIP of .297 compared to his career mark of .328, which makes me suspect a lot of bad luck has his value depressed right now.

by Rox Girl on Nov 5, 2008 5:17 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Crawford for Holliday...

plus a B prospect would be just fine with me, considering that Holliday will be a one year rental player and Crawford will be a two year player that we might actually have the prospect of re-signing.

But yeah, it probably doesn’t solve our problems very well. If we could get Hellickson, that would be a different matter entirely.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Nov 5, 2008 8:33 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're right

there’s no reason to overemphasize Carl Crawford’s most recent season. Prior to ’08, Crawford was a fascinating multifaceted player. His EQA had climbed from .279 to .293 to .296 up to .301 in the last four years until dipping to .271 this past season.

What Crawford has going for him are the very real mitigating factors surrounding his poor season. Carwford suffered two injuries that relate directly to his offensive value. One was a hamstring injury, which if you read the Under The Knife archives at BP, appears to have lingered for much of the season, and is used by Carroll to explain his lack of explosiveness on the basepaths and getting out of the box. This would help explain the low BABIP. The other injury that essentially cratered his offense was a finger injury that made it very difficult for Crawford to grip a bat. Leading into this injury, it was noted that his EQA was around .285, not an All Star number but certainly respectable. Considering his EQA dropped 14 points in a short time that also included a DL stint, then it’s easy to see that ‘08 was more a lost season than a declining one. Hamstring woes can heal with rest, and Crawford’s finger was repaired by surgery.

What was not affected by the hamstring was Crawford’s defense, where he was rated the number one left fielder by the plus/minus system. Crawford is not just fast, but he positions himself well and doesn’t appear to take poor routes anymore. He won’t play center so Rockies fans need not worry there.

Crawford is the perfect fit for Coors, when you consider Holliday no longer applies. He plays left field with a centerfielder’s range and instincts, he has a smooth lefty swing with gap power (which possibly puts him in line to take advantage of the right center bullpen jet stream, and he’s still young enough to improve. Considering his performance last year, Crawford may even entertain an extension with the Rockies that offers more financial securities. Crawford is a safe bounceback candidate that should return to a .300 EQA while playing elite defense at an underrated position at Coors Field.

The bonus here is that you likely don’t just get Crawford. Even if Edwin Jackson is what comes as collateral, that’s still a pitcher that put up a comparable season to both Cook and Jimenez in effectiveness, would be coming to the easier league, and has the ability to be an innings eater at worst.

This isn’t a bad start.

by David OhNo on Nov 5, 2008 8:35 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

From the view of a Rays fan:

The Rays need to fill a hole in RF. We have sufficient pieces already in place, so the Rays aren’t desperate. Why would the Rays fill a hole in RF, if only for a year, just to cause another hole in LF? Does that make sense to anyone else here?

For Matt Halliday, a one year rental player, I would give up Jackson, Niemann, and Dale Thayer. That’s three arms for a one year stellar player, which I am not sold on his numbers away from Coors. Maybe I am still jaded about Vinny Cash-stealer.

Good luck to you boys in ’09!

The Rays lost the World Series to bad umpires, Mother Nature, and the Philadelphia Phillies.

by thebaddancingraysfan on Nov 6, 2008 3:14 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I understand how Castilla could jade somebody

But Holliday’s in a completely different class and he’ll do just fine away from Coors, more like Ellis Burks than Vinny scouts know this, baseball people know this. Your deal is about as far as I’d be comfortable with from a Rays perspective, but probably wouldn’t be sufficient to draw Matt given the broad interest from other teams. From a Rockies perspective, it’s not enough to lose the season of his production plus the two draft picks for letting him walk for those three. We’d have a much better chance staying competitive in 2009 by keeping Matt, and the upside for 2010 or 2011 with Jackson/Niemann/Thayer won’t be enough to make us competitive with Arizona or Los Angeles.

by Rox Girl on Nov 6, 2008 5:25 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just thinking about Castilla in a Devil Rays uniform has put me in a bad mood.

Anyway, I see your perspective. And with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers you really need a good foothold not just this year but next year.

That being said you should see the Rays perspective where just causing a hole like taking Crawford out would be silly and just pretty much welcome fourth place. Crawford does WAY too much on a team to be just a throw in.

Personally, I don’t think a deal between our teams makes sense right now. The Rays really don’t have any prospect or player that I would just like to see in Rockies uniform for years to come. The Rays in a dog fight with the rich boys in the northeast and I don’t see how Holliday would really help.

Again, great talking ball you with you folks.

The Rays lost the World Series to bad umpires, Mother Nature, and the Philadelphia Phillies.

by thebaddancingraysfan on Nov 6, 2008 10:55 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Crawford

Just looked it up on BBR and he is posting similar stats (at his age) that Roberto Clemente was at his age.

The Fail boat is sinking

by rockiesfan4ever on Nov 6, 2008 6:53 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rockies in 2010

Hey guys, I’ve been very excited about this offseason for the Rockies. First off, I think they should trade Holliday, Atkins, and Taveras. My whole thinking is that next year should be a year for the young guys to really get acclimated with the majors and that not next year, but in 2010 the Rockies would begin to be a powerhouse. If we keep Holliday and Atkins, yes, next year the Rox will be a contender but if they don’t win, Holliday is gone and that leaves a gaping hole in the lineup not to mention the pitching woes haven’t been addressed.

Hawpe, Helton, Tulo, Iannetta, Stewart, and Fowler would be a pretty solid lineup in 2010 but it would lack a true big bat. We also aren’t entirely sure how good Stewart or Fowler will be. I think the Rockies should trade Holliday for a solid hitter (like Sabathia for Matt LaPorta) and a prospect close to the majors who looks like a bonafide #2 starter. Also, trade Atkins for a #2 starter. Then trade Taveras for a quality bullpen arm.

That way in 2010 along with Francis, Cook and Jimenez, those two #2’s are pretty much ready to contribute and the bullpen will consist of Buccholz, Corpas, Weathers and the solid arm acquired for Taveras. The offense of Hawpe, Helton, Iannetta, Tulo, Stewart, Fowler and the big bat received from dealing Holliday should be a solid lineup. I also wouldn’t worry too much about 2b just yet since we still have Barmes around and Quintanilla as a utility inf.

Going back to Crawford, I like him a bunch but I think it would be a big mistake to trade for him. The Rockies really don’t need him and his obp as Rockiesmagicnumber stated is just too low to give up a guy like Holliday for. The Rockies have a very solid core right now and need to trade these guys so that 2009 is a learning/maturing year and that 2010 they will be dominant

by Resolution on Nov 6, 2008 9:53 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Crawford

Considering where he’ll bat in the lineup, I don’t care about any of his other tools. I’m looking at only 1 number: OBP. He doesn’t have it.

If we’re looking for a guy with massive defensive prowess, good speed to make plays a slower guy would have to play on the hop, can bat in the leadoff spot with multiple tools, may have some trouble actually getting on, but can take 2nd consistently when on:

Why don’t we just keep Willy Taveras? Crawford peaked in OBP in 2007, getting on at a .355 clip. Taveras was getting on at .367 in 2007. They can both steal a pile of bases. They both play outstanding defense. Sure, Crawford has more power than Taveras, but we could be trading Holliday to another team for pitching.

I hate to say it, but Resolution has the best idea. Holliday and Atkins are gone, but we control Hawpe for a while, Spills for a while as well, same with Barmes, and we have Tulo, Stewart, and Iannetta under team control. We let Spills play CF, and bring in someone like :shudder: Jim Edmonds to keep up the idea of “HEY WE’RE COMPETING” and then in 2010, Dexter Fowler will be the Tulowitzki of Rocktober II: Blake Street Strikes Back, and we might just get some heroics from guys like Lindsay, Chacin, Roe, Hynick, or hell, maybe even Franklin Morales again!

With Holliday being a giant douchenozzle, I figure we’re not in a spot to compete next year. Although Tulowitzki might win his first of many Gold Gloves.

Seriously, this team is just too fun to watch even if we are losing.

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by RockiesMagicNumber on Nov 6, 2008 10:15 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

The Rockies have a very very solid core of guys and an incredibly deep bench with Spilly, Smith, Quintanilla but as it is they aren’t a true powerhouse. Fowler, assuming he is a productive major leaguer walks enough to have a fantastic OBP and the speed of a leadoff hitter. Then we’re looking at Tulo, Hawpe, Helton and Iannetta. Stewart is still a bit of a wildcard at this point but let’s take the pessimistic route and say while he does become a productive major leaguer he’s one of those 30hr .260avg and a ton of k’s (a good comparison would be Pat Burrell) hitters. While this isn’t bad at all, it isn’t quite enough and sets up the need to acquire a big bat. Then, with a big bat, and maybe Stewart out-performing what I just listed, their offense is set, which leads to pitching.

My philosophy on pitching is while it would be nice to have a true ace, I’d settle for a rotation of a bunch of #2 and #3 guys instead of a traditional 1,2,3,4,5 (or in this past year a few #2’s and 3’s and then just question marks) rotation, Which is why acquiring some solid #2 pitchers would be ideal (since the talent difference between a 1 and a 2 isn’t nearly as big as the salary/trade value between a 1 and 2 starter). Then if Morales and Greg Reynolds figure things out, and Friedrich matures, it leaves the Rockies with the best possible problem to have in all of baseball, surplus starting pitching.

by Resolution on Nov 6, 2008 11:17 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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