Thursday Rockpile: Everyday It's Holliday
by Rox Girl on Nov 6, 2008 9:48 AM MST
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PrintThe Rockies pursuit for the best return for trading their slugger continues to generate plenty of buzz. Troy E. Renck reports that Dan O'Dowd is keeping an open mind about what he expects back, realizing that pitching may not necessarily be the best way to go. Is O'Dowd open minded enough to get involved in a three way? Yahoo's Tim Brown offered up a rumor which would have the Mariners getting Hideki Matsui, the Yankees getting Holliday, and the Rockies getting Robinson Cano, Seattle pitcher Ryan Rowland-Smith and some unnamed Yankees prospect. Given that the Mariners get the shaft in this scenario and New York is able to hang on to Phillip Hughes, I'm guessing that the Yankees camp floated this one out there to see if it had legs in Denver and Seattle.
Rowland-Smith isn't a bad young left-handed pitcher, but he's not going to be any better than Jeff Francis, and therefore shouldn't have more of ceiling than Christian Friedrich. His stuff also grades lower than Jorge De La Rosa and he certainly does not have more of an upside than Franklin Morales. So why deal for a pitcher who on talent alone would only rank as the organization's fifth best LHP? Rowland-Smith is MLB ready right now, making his debut in 2007, and has better command than Morales or JDLR. Because Seattle nurtured him as a reliever and due to some injuries, he pitched the most innings in his career in 2008 at 137. The bottom line in this scenario is that the Rockies get another pitcher to throw into the bottom of the rotation mix, but who could also replace Brian Fuentes in bullpen if necessary, an upgrade at second base in Cano, and an unnamed prospect for Holliday. Similarly to yesterday's Carl Crawford rumor, this isn't a bad place to start, but unless that prospect is Jesus Montero, I don't think this would beat a Crawford centered package from Tampa. The Angels are explicitly stated to not be interested in Holliday, with a condition that this may change, which implies that they're waiting to see where the Mark Teixeira derby goes. I don't believe the Rockies will get the really solid offers for Holliday or Garrett Atkins until Tex signs.
Brown also mentions that the Yankees plan to get involved in the Willy Taveras talks, but the interest of Brian Cashman seems a little tepid compared to that of Kenny Williams. For that reason, I would say the White Sox remain the front-runners, and given the relative lack of complications, I wouldn't be surprised if Willy got dealt before Matt.
Over at the Rocky, Tracy Ringolsby updates us about Todd Helton's rehab from back surgery. Todd really is a wild card for next season that could mean the difference between mediocrity and having a legitimate playoff caliber team. The Renck link at the very top mentions how Ryan Spilborghs is playing center in Mexico with the idea that he could be the Rockies opening day starter at that position next year in place of Taveras as Dexter Fowler finalizes his education. Added to an expected rebound by Troy Tulowitzki, this gives the Rockies upgrades at two of their three offensive sinkholes in 2008's lineup. The one real mystery to me remains how Helton will fare, but if he gets some of the run production back, that would help immensely to make up some of the ground lost by dealing Holliday.
Also in a blog entry, Ringolsby discusses the idea that Brad Penny might be an interesting one-season contract play to rebuild his value after a down year in 2008. I don't see it happening with teams being as pitching crazed as they are and my belief that pitchers will still shun rebuilding their reputations in Coors Field when places like PETCO are available, but were it possible it would be a decent move. Speaking of pitchers and Coors, Renck mentioned three relievers, Doug Brocail, Brandon Lyon and Kyle Farnsworth who are open to coming here. I don't know if I'd give up a draft pick to sign Brocail, and I've seen enough of Brandon Lyon to not want him in our pen, which I guess would leave Farnsy as the only one of that trio that wouldn't make me bang my head against a wall. Pain free is good, I guess.
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Stuff
I live in New York and have caught a lot of Yankees games. If there’s one reliever I wouldn’t want, it would probably be Farnsworth. I don’t know how much I like Penny either, whenever he does well it just seems more like smoke and mirrors than anything. I really believe the Rockies are in a complete position of power this offseason and I just commented on an earlier post and basically said if the Rockies can deal Holliday, Atkins, and Taveras and walk away with a solid hitting prospect like a Matt LaPorta in the Sabathia deal who’s close to the majors, two #2 starters (IE a Kevin Slowey/Nick Blackburn for Atkins, and someone similar in the Holliday deal) and a solid bullpen arm, while 2009 might be more of a learning/maturation year for the Rockies, by 2010 they’d be the class of the NL West.
Penny
Yeah, he does it with smoke, alright – dude can pump it 98 when he’s healthy. That’s some serious smoke! I like Penny because he’s never been afraid to challenge hitters, and he’s a bit of a red-ass on the mound, which is the type of mentality I think you need to win at Coors (see Cook, Aaron… and for the exception to the rule, see Hampton, Mike). If he’d be willing to take a one-year deal I see no reason why he couldn’t succeed in Colorado. I don’t see a realistic opportunity to buy low on a guy who started the All-Star Game two years ago, but if it did exist I would do backflips if the Rockies took that opportunity. At the very least he’s worth whatever Fuentes is going to get from the Mets.
If we signed Farnsworth, if nothing else, we’d sure get into a lot more Dugout episodes on the AOL Fanhouse, which wouldn’t be a bad thing.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
Penny
He’s also an injury risk and always suffers a large drop in performance after the ASB. However, if he came cheap enough, it wouldn’t be bad for the Rockies to take a 1 year deal on him. Best case scenario, he pitches well and the Rockies get a draft pick when he leaves. Worst case is he pitches poor for 1 year and then is gone. I don’t know how willing Penny would be to take only a 1 year contract despite last year’s disaster of a season for him, especially a 1 year deal with the Rockies – not really the best place to reestablish oneself.
Penny
Has great stuff, but his conditioning is garbage. Perhaps the Dodgers snub will motivate him to get in shape this offseason—otherwise, he’ll do what he usually does: dominate through the all-star break and then break down. He also has a notoriously bad attitude…redass is appropriate (but not limited to the mound, he’s a redass all the time). I certainly think he’d be worth a long look based on his talent, but I suspect he’ll get a multi-year, good money deal somewhere and I doubt it will be in Denver.
If I were O'Dowd
I’d demand Hughes. Cano isn’t a bad pickup by far. His BABIP took a drop last season, he might’ve have just gotten unlucky. However, from what I’ve heard from Yankees fans is he seems to be the type that doesn’t put 100% into his game without a coach riding him the whole way. That really doesn’t sound like the type of guy we’d need on the team. However, he’s also 25. He’d fit in well in our infield (I’m picturing Helton rolling his eyes as Tulo, Stewart, and Cano all go driving away in Stewart’s jeep in a Zoolander kind of scene), as he’s shown to be defensively sound and would more than likely gel up the middle well with Tulowitzki. Not that Barmes isn’t as good, but man, Kaz and Tulo had something special there.
Another big question is who would the “other prospect” be? Are we talking Ian Kennedy? Jose Tabata? Or someone like Jeff Marquez, who isn’t really a prospect anymore?
I don’t know. We have a lot of MI in the system, I think we’d be getting hosed on this one.
It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com
The Yankees are tricky
Being in NY, the Yankees are an interesting team to follow (although not necessarily to root for). Cano can be a little uninspired on the field and he walks about 20 times a season which is horrible. Having said that, he’s not necessarily a bad option and he’s definitely better than what he did last season. I’d also demand Hughes. I remember reading somewhere that the Yankees have messed with his mechanics and that’s why he’s been inconsistent and that really he’d just need to go back to where he was a few seasons ago to regain his dominant form. But the problem with the Yankees is that aside from Cano and Hughes I don’t know who else is worth getting. Melky is a waste, he’s good but not worth acquiring and is really no different from Spilborghs. I don’t think the Yankees would deal Hughes and Kennedy in a deal and their farm system lacks impact bats. Their only bat is Austin Jackson and while he has chance to be pretty good, he wouldn’t be that big middle of the lineup bat that the Rox could use.
My concern
With Hughes is that he’s getting a rap for being soft mentally. I’ve even read that one of the reasons they dl’d him this year was to save his fragile psyche. Not exactly the ideal makeup for Coors Canaveral.
Holliday rumor
Matt Holliday – COL
The Denver Post reports that “multiple opposing executives” predict that the Phillies and A’s “are the most likely trade partners” for Matt Holliday.
General manager Dan O’Dowd said Wednesday that he’s open to dealing Holliday without getting a proven starting pitcher in return, adding that the Rockies “are completely open-minded to anything.” Philadelphia would look at Holliday as a replacement for free agent Pat Burrell and could offer a package centering around pitching prospect Carlos Carrasco, but it’s unclear why Oakland would be in the mix for a high-salaried player who’s one season from free agency.
Source: Denver Post
I love the hot stove
The 3 way as listed is a non starter, as it’s not the best rumor of the week so far.
Penny…is a Rockies killer, throws down. Perfect Coors Field type pitcher…..or was anyway. Now he’s a huge injury question mark. But, I’d love for the Rockies to give him a contract, maybe, even one with options, though I don’t see why he would want to come here, when he could go to more pitcher friendly parks.
Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.
Wouldn't you rather want Lowe than Penny?
What kind of contract do you think Lowe’s looking at? A few weeks ago, I thought we could get him for three years at $9-10m per, but maybe I’m completely out of whack?
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
A few weeks ago he hadn't pitched the Dodgers to the NLCS
He’s benefited a lot from the playoffs, plus a few big market teams like the Yankees have expressed interest in signing him, which makes me think that he’ll be a paygrade or two out of the Rockies range now. Plus, with several teams interested, it’s likely that somebody will be offering him four or five years, and that’s just too much for a pitcher at his age.
Yeah
I liked Lowe too when I thought he might be under the radar…but that was a daydream. Plus, Lowe is notorious in LA for his disdain for youth and anything that could resemble a “youth movement” so there’s no chance he’d sign in Colorado if Holliday and Atkins are shipped (which assumes a good FA pitcher with other legit options would sign here in the first place). He’ll be too pricey anyway, I’d be shocked if he’s under the 4/55 range, and possibly well over.
O'Dowd is the worst GM in baseball
Wow, O’Dowd is proving what a horrible GM he really is. Face it, there is no way the Rockies are gettting anything close to equal value for Holliday, now he is basically saying he’ll take less or maybe just nothing? It seems like he’s just trading him for the sake of trading him and doesn’t even care what he gets in return. I thought this was the deal that was supposed to reshape the franchise for the future, but it seems like O’Dowd will inevitably screw it up.
Remember that its only 1 year of Holliday we are trading
Second half run?
Realize it could just be rhetoric to get more teams involved.
It’s just like an agent saying his pitcher will play for the Rockies even if he knows that this isn’t exactly true. As a GM quote in the Brown link indicates, some teams could be scared off by the Rockies pretty specific demands at the trade deadline. O’Dowd wants as many offers on the table as possible, as that’s the only way that teams will feel the need to add to whatever they might initially be willing to offer. I see the statement as much leveraging as anything else.
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