then I’d keep Holliday and take the draft picks. One year of Holliday’s production plus two first rounders outways Ludwick and a middling fourth outfielder that makes Seth smith redundant and a pitcher that isn’t that highly regarded. If Dan is really looking for an immediate impact, just keep Holliday and take the picks. Surely someone can top this weak effort.

As for Rosenthal’s article, I think it works to marginalize Holliday too much. What is too often lost in Holliday disscusions is just how dynamic a player he is. In addition to his contributions at the plate, Holliday has become a high efficiency base stealer that knows when to run without hurting his team. Defensively, Holliday was the fifth best left fielder in plus/minus at +11, which is more impressive when you consider the physical demands of playing outfield at Coors Field. Holliday’s arm is no more than average, but he’s smart with his throws, knows how to position himself, and has the speed to track down balls in the alley. It would not surprise me if Holliday become a good rightfielder on another club. Holliday is the complete package as a ballplayer and should be marketed as such.

Another problem with Rosenthal’s case is that it’s simply assumed that only Rockies players get big bumps from playing at home. Ludwick had noticeable differences in his splits as well, and don’t get me started on Phillies’ players. BP has suggested in the past that players leaving the Rockies tend to see their splits revert closer to the mean, dampening the size of the split. A good recent example of this is Kaz Matsui, who was essentially the same player last year with Houston that he was with Colorado. If Holliday was showing close to .100 point differences in his triangle stats, I’d be concerned, but his road numbers from the past two years have not shown severe differences.

Lastly, BP numbers like EQA and VORP take into consideration park factors in their equations and Holliday still comes out looking like an elite prospect. There’s enough modern data available to seperate those that are home mashers and those that are simply good players, Holliday reflects the latter.

However, his comments on Atkins are some of the things I’ve said for a while, so this is concerning to me. Early ideas for Atkins (like Santana) are laughable at best, and I think the Rockies may have to take considerable less than there expected return, though that doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t getting equitable value. Atkins does exhibit those scary splits I was talking about earlier and those show themselves in numbers like EQA and VORP.

I don’t see keeping Atkins around as beneficial to the Rockies either. His plus minus is still a decent step down from Stewart, and it puts Ian in a tough spot shifting to left field. Take big losses defensively at third, left, and center could put this team in a defensive hole it can’t hit itself out of. in addition to that, Atkins comments about the organization were less than flattering this week, and he seems as if he’s asking to move on. Holliday leaving seems to be a certainty, so how will Atkins’ behavior be?

I think the Rockies will have to come down on Atkins’ demands, but they could use him in tandem. I would imagine the Phillies would be interest in both Atkins and Holliday and that would allow the Rockies to sweeten the Holliday package. As I suggested yesterday, I’d love a swap of those two for Carrasco, Werth, Donald, and Happ. With Cleveland, I’d love a deal straight up for David Huff, but would gladly settle for Aaron Laffey (after politely requesting Sipp in addition, but I wouldn’t push too hard).

The article from Rosenthal may affect how fans see Matt but not the other GM’s. If Holliday was a free agent this year, then he would have been the 2nd highest rated Type A player. Ahead of everyone except Teixeira.

It would’nt surprise me if Rosenthal was getting this road/split concern straight from the Cardinals front office. They want to drive the asking price down and Rosenthal fell for it… hook, line and sinker.

He should know better.

to see an outfield of Ludwick-(someone)-Hawpe, with Eckstein at 2B. There has never been a lineup so gritty and so adept at catching balls hit straight at them. Maybe Schumaker could be (someone) and a Wag The Dog type theme song could catch fire in Denver

I love this deal for both sides. I see Boggs as a better pitcher than Hirsch(because of injuries) and reynolds didn’t show me much at all last yr, not saying boggs have either. The Cards get a slugger that opponets will fear while the Rockies really get some pieces that can help

The buzz the other day was that there was talk of the Rays offering Carl Crawford and bodies for Big Daddy. So the question here would be who would the Rockies rather have?

Crawford, of course.

See ya Cardinal Fan. Better come up with a top prospect or there’s no deal.

gl on your compensation picks, or to whomever trades for him.
giving 3 yrs of ludwick, when stl could sign holliday as a 2010 FA, is silliness.
holliday, rasmus, ludwick…….is also a possability.