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Saturday Rockpile: Bye-bye Taveras and Herrera, Hello Embree and ?

While Willy Taveras had been expected and rumored to be cut leading into Friday night's contract tender deadline, Jonathan Herrera's name sort of came out of the blue, but having the flexibility of another open roster spot is a good thing. Right now it looks like the Rockies are targetting Tim Redding for the spot, but there's nothing concrete there yet, so I suppose that plan can shift as the winter continues to unfold.

This past week's moves have clarified the state of the division somewhat, here's a brief recap of what I said each team still had yet to do last week, along with a short analysis of what's actually been happening:

Arizona:

What still needs to be done: Given their fiscal constraints, targeting higher quality complementary pieces (I like Alex Cora for the Rockies, he'd fit decently in Arizona, also) would help. Restocking the bullpen should be a priority as well. Scout like crazy to make the most of their draft haul.

The Diamondbacks made a somewhat surprising end-around from the rumors in snatching up Felipe Lopez to take over at second base, and he would definitely qualify as a higher quality complementary piece considering that he takes Chris Burke's spot on the roster. They also essentially replaced third catcher Robby Hammock with Rule 5 pick James Skelton and left-hander Wil Ledezma with Scott Schoeneweis. The Lopez move does make their team a little better offensively, a little worse defensively, but if stability itself has value, it should result in an improvement over the position they found themselves in a week ago. As far as their chances in 2009 go, I can't say the same about the Skelton and Schoeneweis moves, but Skelton at least provides some additional upside down the road that wasn't there last week.

The Connor Robertson for Schoeneweis trade confuses me, and I put it in a category of the sort of expensive pointlessness that teams do sometimes. The Rockies are getting Alan Embree for just a little more than the $2 million the Snakes will pay Schoe, and he's a far more effective pitcher against right handers. I do see one good reason for this trade for Arizona: one of the main reasons the other NL West teams will want to have a solid lefty or two in their pen over the next two or three years is to counteract the Rockies many left handed hitters, and Schoeneweis if nothing else has shown he does a fine job with that with a .216/.275/.243 line for the Rox in his career against them.

Colorado:

What needs to be done: If the return fits, trade Willy Taveras and possibly Garrett Atkins or Yorvit Torrealba. Extend Chris Iannetta. Find more pitching particularly an ace that's willing to come pitch at Coors Field for peanuts. Bobo the elephant comes to mind.

Adding Alan Embree while subtracting Willy Taveras doesn't really have that much of an impact on the Rockies compared to what was already known a week ago. I haven't really mentioned this, but there's a chance that Embree could be about as valuable to the club as Brian Fuentes despite being an inferior reliever thanks solely to the effects of him not being blessed with the closer mantel, and therefore free for Hurdle to put in other high leverage situations.

Did you know that the spread between the amount of pitches swung at by Chris Iannetta outside the strikezone (16.2%) and those he swung at inside the strikezone (72.3%) was the highest in the majors since Chipper Jones in 2006? Seriously. This guy is better than you realize Rockies bigwigs.

Los Angeles:

What needs to be done: Signing Manny. And a pitcher. And an infielder. And another pitcher. And another infielder. And some bench players.

Signing Casey Blake and Mark Loretta pushes the Dodgers a lot closer to where they need to be than they were at the beginning of last week, but they still have a long way to go. Neither is the impact bat that the Dodgers need to add, and the Dodgers are running out of available top of the rotation options to pursue for their pitching staff. But they did get an infielder, and Loretta by himself counts as a couple of bench players, which is useful. 

San Diego:

The Padres failed to trade Jake Peavy, but remain somewhat of a spectacle for their highly publicized attempts. They ripped Everth Cabrera from us in the Rule 5 draft. 

San Francisco:

What needs to be done: Sign a slugger or three.

A lot of the Giants work was done prior to the Winter Meetings, so there's really not much of a change here. They are still lacking an impact bat, and it's looking less likely that they will target one before the spring training camp opens.

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LOL
They also essentially replaced ….left-hander Wil Ledezma with Scott Schoeneweis.

Wil Ledezma, who pitched all of four innings for the Dbacks last season….

Fire Vinny Cerrato, the raquetball partner.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 13, 2008 1:12 PM MST reply actions  

From a roster standpoint...

That’s basically what happened, from an IP standpoint, Schoeneweis will probably be taking some of Slaten’s work, which as a Rockies fan, I’m sort of sorry to see happen. Doug was about the only pitcher of yours we hit well last season.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2008 1:40 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah, basically.

But Scott presumably becomes our primary LOOGY, since he and Slaten both give up a career 120 OPS+ vs. righties, but vs. lefties, Schoeneweis’ OPS+ against is 58, while Doug’s is 80.

So, he bumps Slaten down the totem pole, out of the primary LOOGY position.

Fire Vinny Cerrato, the raquetball partner.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 13, 2008 7:31 PM MST up reply actions  

Herrera

The Rox organization may be heavy at middle infield, but I don’t like this. From what I saw of him, Herrera seems like a guy with major league skill sets and I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns into a nice player for someone. And if you can’t find room for him, you can’t move a guy like this for another prospect?

by BroJB on Dec 13, 2008 1:21 PM MST reply actions  

Capuano

Like the mention of looking at Chris Capuano in lieu of Rusch. A little younger, and after a year off for TJ surgery, maybe cheaper and could get back the form ’05 and early ’06.

by deacs on Dec 13, 2008 3:04 PM MST up reply actions  

Miles

Aaron Miles was non-tendered by the Cardinals. What about bringing him back? He’s a definitive upgrade from Barmes or Baker, and not that much older. He’d probably be cheap, maybe even minor league contract cheap? Old Barmesy could back up at 2nd, and do a little work in CF as a backup to Spilborghs until the kids are ready. Baker could go back to what he really should be: a fill in at 3rd, 2nd, 1st and RF.

by deacs on Dec 13, 2008 2:54 PM MST reply actions  

If the Rockies had a hole

at second base I would say Miles would be an interesting fill. However, Barmes is anything but a hole. Barmes needs to be given a chance to be an everyday player, and if he is he’ll put up solid numbers. Also he’s a great insurance policy in case Tulo tries to do another Bo Jackson impersonation or does anything else stupid like wrestle with a snowblower, haul deer meet up a stairwell, ride 4 wheelers, or trip on a dog.

It would be interesting to do a La Russa experiement and hit Barmes in the 9 hole, especially if someone like Spilly is leading off.

by jefe_13 on Dec 13, 2008 3:08 PM MST up reply actions  

I've been playing around with our lineup projections over at Baseball Musings

And believe it or not, the best order according to their math typically has Barmes hitting sixth and Fowler (if he’s in center, Spilly in left) or Stewart batting ninth after the pitcher. Barmes does work well in that slot with a few scenarios, though.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2008 3:13 PM MST up reply actions  

Barmes at 2b

I guess I’d feel better about Barmes at second if he was just put there and left alone. All of this platooning stuff doesn’t give a guy a chance to settle in. And Baker at 2nd just doesn’t give me the warm fuzzys.

Baker is just what he is a corner infielder or left fielder with a pretty good pinch bat. Please quit trying to make him something he isn’t.

I think a bigger experiment will be with Spilly in centerfield. We all know he’s not going to be Willie Mays out there, but I think he will be servicable until the youngsters are ready. However, if he just can’t handle the defensive part of it on an everyday basis, we need Scott P.(can’t spell it :). I’d hate to see them rush Fowler or CarGo in a panic state.

by pedalpusher on Dec 14, 2008 10:09 AM MST up reply actions  

I'm not sure how you call him a definite upgrade...

He’s certainly grown into a much better player than I thought he would when I was happy to see him go, but defensively he’s a liability now and he doesn’t have as much power as either Baker or Barmes.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2008 3:09 PM MST up reply actions  

He'd definitely be an upgrade because...

he’s a better hitter than either, and if you think he’s a defensive liability then what should the Rockies call Baker’s time there? I like Pinto’s PMR for second basemen, which shows Miles ranked low, but Fangraph’s UZR/150 paints a different picture, in which Miles is not that much of a drop from Barmes defensively, while Baker’s a nightmare.

I agree with jefe_13 that “Barmes is anything but a hole.” If it’s him or Baker, I’d much rather see him be the every day player. However, other people haven’t been so convinced of that in the past. Also, Miles has a higher VORP than either by far. Miles would be a clear upgrade in that he’s proven that he’sa real every day player, as opposed to a stopgap. I still think/hope Barmes can be at least as good of an every day second baseman (mostly because I’ve always like him and want to see him succeed after a bizarre career) but he’ll have to prove he can handle the offensive load as well, as opposed to us already knowing that Miles can.

by deacs on Dec 13, 2008 5:32 PM MST up reply actions  

Stewie

What are the chances of Ian Stewart spending some time at second? Or are we expecting him to see time in left field?

by onholliday on Dec 13, 2008 5:34 PM MST up reply actions  

Pretty decent, actually

The team might use him against some of the trickier RHP’s in the division with Smith in left field.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2008 6:07 PM MST up reply actions  

They should

Use Stewart against the tricky left-handers… but then again, his BABIP against lefties was like close to .500 last season…

by Resolution on Dec 13, 2008 6:33 PM MST up reply actions  

I think that's when he plays left and Smith and Hawpe sit...

At least, that’s how I’d do it. Maybe have him play third and have Helton and Hawpe rest.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2008 6:38 PM MST up reply actions  

I really hope

Stewart can take a step forward. His BABIP against lefties was ridiculous but in the minors he showed he could hit lefties fairly well. His numbers against righties don’t seem too special coming from a left-handed hitting, top-prospect. On the plus side, his k rate last year was out of line with his minor league numbers and could reasonably drop 10%. He had a .278 BA against righties for his minor league career. If he can raise that 20 points somehow it would really take him up a tier from good to great or so.

Maybe having consistent time at one level (the majors) and playing his natural position will allow him to develop his game a bit more. How likely are we to allow that (specifically the second part) to happen?

by Resolution on Dec 13, 2008 6:46 PM MST up reply actions  

Miles' VORP in 2008 was 15.8 vs. Barmes' 19.1

Which isn’t even higher at all. Projections say he’s in for a pretty steep drop in BA and OBP, so apparently like me (And St. Louis, apparently), they aren’t so brave in predicting his ability to handle the offensive load.

I’ve been coming around to Barmes since the end of the year, which may not qualify as a good thing since I took a similar process to come around to Jayson Nix (at least Barmes has shown something at the MLB level, though), but I’m just not seeing what you are with Miles.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2008 6:05 PM MST up reply actions  

Well yes, I see,

I can’t read, and don’t know where I came up with the VORP for Miles and Barmes. So good call on that. The troubling part, however, is where Barmes is projected to have a .309 OBA by Bill James and .301 by Marcel. Miles is projected to have a drop, but still have an OBP of .330 (while being adequate defensively compared to Barmes and a wizard compared to Baker). Again, I’m pro-Barmes, especially over Baker. But it can’t hurt, if MIles is willing, to have him come in on a non-ML roster deal. Which is possible since there’s not a heavy market for 2B right now.

What I see is a guy who can play adequate defense (according to some metrics) with a productive OBP in the lineup, which is going to matter more than Barmes’s 12 HR if Barmes can’t get on base. At least Miles is better than Eckstein.

by deacs on Dec 13, 2008 8:09 PM MST up reply actions  

At least Miles is better than Eckstein.

GASP!! NOBODY IS BETTER THAN ECKSTEIN.

He’s… like, scrappy, and stuff.

Fire Vinny Cerrato, the raquetball partner.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 13, 2008 8:15 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah, this is going to be a weird flip if it's me who starts arguing for Barmes

And you start pointing out how horrible his OBP projections are, so I think I’ll just let you have the last word other than NO FRICKIN WAY IS MILES BETTER THAN ECKSTEIN. WHO I ADORE. HEARTS FOREVER AND I WANT TO HAVE HIS BABIES.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2008 9:08 PM MST up reply actions  

IAWTC

(Except the babies part, as I lack a uterus)

Fire Vinny Cerrato, the raquetball partner.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 13, 2008 10:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Haha

I was hoping I was the only one who remembered my arguments for Barmes. But now that I’ve succeeded in getting you to fall in love with Barmesy, I’ll drop the Aaron Miles argument, and we can work on getting Tim McCarver and everyone at ESPN to gush over Barmes.

by deacs on Dec 14, 2008 9:54 AM MST up reply actions  

Barmes vs Miles

Forget the numbers…Barmes is a much better overall option at 2B than Miles. Q is better. Bakes is so much better offensively that the defense part of the equation is irrelevant.

There is absolutely no reason to bring in a player like Miles…

by roxhead on Dec 13, 2008 6:11 PM MST up reply actions  

Cash

I remember Redhawk and Rox Girl discussing Holliday as a salary dump and/or wise re-investment elsewhere.

The meetings are over and we have Allan Embree’s check full of chaw to show for it. Just curious what you thought we’d have to do to make Holiday’s trade look like more than money saved?

InToddwetrust

by InToddwetrust on Dec 13, 2008 6:09 PM MST reply actions  

You were expecting this to be resolved at the meetings?

Although I guess for a lot of people it was resolved the moment that O’Dowd signed off on that trade. In other words, this is going to pretty much be a subjective standard. If the Rockies payroll (plus draft budget) increases in 2008, some might not see it as a salary dump at all. If payroll doesn’t increase to the point it would have been with the 2008 team left in tact, it will still be a salary dump for other fans. It will always be a salary dump for certain fans as long as CarGon/Street/Smith aren’t All-Stars. There will be a few that wouldn’t even care if CarGon replaces Holliday hit for hit in 2009 and still consider it a dump regardless, as I say, from the moment O’Dowd pulled the trigger.

I’m somewhere between judging it on an increase in overall salary budget and where that budget would have been had we kept Holliday. I think trading Holliday was a necessary step for this team to take, I’d like to see us take other steps to get better as well.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2008 6:37 PM MST up reply actions  

It might be fun

seeing CarGon (presumably) face off against Danny Haren this year.

Fire Vinny Cerrato, the raquetball partner.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 13, 2008 7:50 PM MST up reply actions  

Would DOD

ever make the deal if not for salary? Of course not. There’s no sense in arguing whether it was a “salary dump” since it unquestionably was. The real test is whether it was a good deal, motivation notwithstanding. TBD…

by Teekalong on Dec 14, 2008 12:53 AM MST up reply actions  

But what salary was O'Dowd dumping? 2009's or 2010's?

I think a case could be made that it’s more the latter than the former, in which case he was dumping risk of Holliday walking away for nothing as much as he was dumping salary.

by Rox Girl on Dec 14, 2008 6:29 AM MST up reply actions  

It WAS a salary dump

but the more I think about it, a necessary one. Just the built in increase in salaries already take up the savings from Holliday’s salary. Given the economy, keeping a tight budget makes sense. I don’t like it, but I don’t like having to work for a living either, but dems da breaks.

What really chaps me, I guess is out of the Rockies control, and that is the increasing divide between the haves and the have nots (or even the have somes).

Also the team seems pretty fired up with Carlos Gonzales.

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Dec 13, 2008 7:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Daniel Cabrera

was non-tendered. Not sure if we need another pitcher who has issues with the strikezone, but at one time he was pretty highly regarded. His ERA+ isn’t great the last few years, but you would have to think that moving from the AL East to the NL West would help.

Second half run?

by moomacher on Dec 14, 2008 8:25 AM MST reply actions  

I shoul also mention

that he is sort of the worst case scenario of the pitcher than Ubaldo Jimenez turns into, so perhaps we should keep him far, far away…

Second half run?

by moomacher on Dec 14, 2008 8:42 AM MST up reply actions  

oh, you mean like Franklin Morales?

by onholliday on Dec 15, 2008 1:08 PM MST up reply actions  

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