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Wednesday Rockpile: Chris Iannetta, a #1 catcher?

Thomas Harding's new mailbag went up on Monday, and the first question he tackles is on Chris Iannetta: Will his batting average improve? The answer is that its more important to see what he can do in a full season as the team's #1 catcher.

One thing that hasn't been discussed here before is the plight of the Denver newspapers. Jeremy over at Pickaxe and Roll brought this up regarding the Nuggets, but we should be asking how this will affect Rockies' coverage.

Not much going on right now. . . .

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How good is Iannetta going to be?

I think an OBP over .400, and 32 HR’s this season are is base projection if he just stays on the path he is on now, but for a full season. It could be much more.

At this time of year I wait every day in anticipation of baseball starting again. Christmas is secondary. One of the best things to look forward to in 2009 is to see how good Iannetta will become.

.264 doesn’t bother me in the least.

by brian8065 on Dec 17, 2008 7:42 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

You've got a couple of odd divergences with CDI that make him tricky...

First of all, his strike-zone judgment is as sharp as anybody’s, like I was mentioning the other day, but the downside is that unlike most of the players who have such good judgment (like Helton or Chipper, for instance) he has a real hard time making contact when he’s been fooled and goes reaching. The three players (over 400 PA’s) to fail to connect at least 40% of the time when they swung at pitches outside the strikezone were Mark Reynolds, Kelly Shoppach and Iannetta. Ryan Howard was next on the list at 40.9%. Iannetta’s K rate only avoided dipping to those players level because he laid off more, but as long as there’s an inability to make contact outside like that (even just to protect with two strikes) it means that his AVG and OBP won’t reach their full potential.

by Rox Girl on Dec 17, 2008 7:55 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Iannetta

I don’t think he’ll get 32 hrs. Maybe if he was going to get 600 at bats. I think around 25 is a reasonable number. Also, his babip at home last season was .276 which should rise (although his babip away was somewhat high). Iannetta’s k rates in the minors were lower than last season. Without anything empirical backing this, it seems like learning to foul pitches off (like the ones that fooled Iannetta out of the zone) would be a skill a hitter with a good eye can develop somewhat. Maybe that number can go from 40 to 30 or so…

by Resolution on Dec 17, 2008 8:14 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I would think so, and as you mention, his record in the minors is encouraging

Iannetta always has had an impressive learning curve as a hitter. In this case you want that 40 number going up, not down as it’s a % of the contact made. If he could get it up to near 50%, he’s an elite hitter. That home BABIP is further on the low end than the road BABIP is on the high end when you look at his line-drive rates, so I think overall you’d be looking at a slight improvement.

by Rox Girl on Dec 17, 2008 8:24 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Especially since

I’d assume average Babips at Coors are higher than other parks and that Iannetta, if this season was representative of his skills, is a power hitter so a home babip for him could be somewhere around .320ish? (assuming avg babip is .300 with +.10 for power and +.10 for park)

by Resolution on Dec 17, 2008 9:46 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Just to note

Iannetta:

Home: .250/.381/.512/.893 (211 PA)
Away: .280/.400/.497/.897 (196 PA)

Which leads me to think that his road numbers are more of who he is, and when he Coors numbers come into play, he’ll be like a .300/.425/.600 guy at home, and then a similar .280/.400/.500 guy on the road.

either way I love me some Iannetta. Hence the avatar.

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 17, 2008 9:57 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

upon further examination

his .350 BABIP on the road prolly isn’t sustainable. I’d imagine you could nerf the OPS’ by about 50 so he’d land a .275/.400/.575 at home and .270/.380/.480 on the road

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 17, 2008 9:59 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Avg. BABIP's are higher for Coors.

.317 was what the NL did at the park last season compared to an overall split of .298. Iannetta’s should be over .340 given a better than average LD rate, though his speed takes him down a bit.

by Rox Girl on Dec 17, 2008 10:01 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Papers

I think the only way the “newspapers” survive is to go to a purely online format. The only problem with that is still being able to manage two-page tire ads.

by Since1993 on Dec 17, 2008 8:55 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

That makes me sad

I don’t disagree with you, but I can’t help but feel somewhat sentimentally attached to newspapers. I don’t like that they might one day be a thing of the past. One of the things I’ve always done is save the newspapers for big events, including sports. Like after the Broncos Superbowl wins or the papers from Rocktober. Or other historic events (I even ordered a back issue of USA Today after the election, because I couldn’t find any anywhere to buy).

Also, this is totally not sports related, but what happens to comic strips? When I got a paper, I always read the comics. Now that I don’t, I still go online to read news, but I rarely seek out comics.

Poor, poor newspapers.

by holly96 on Dec 17, 2008 12:15 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I have

my favorite comic strips e-mailed to me everyday.

"Never Surrender Dreams" - Inscription on J. Michael Straczynski's bench

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Dec 17, 2008 12:27 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

But

what about new comic strips?

by holly96 on Dec 17, 2008 1:16 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Me too,

I was on various school papers in Jr. and Sr. High. I kept all the papers from big events. I loved getting and reading the News after a Broncos game with all the tons of stories and spreading it out on a table with my buddies. It is sad but technology moves on and the ’net allows us not only to get news immediately but also discuss it as a sort of community. Still not sure where this leaves the Big O people, though.

by Since1993 on Dec 17, 2008 5:36 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't take my computer into the bathroom with me

Personally I think newspapers will be around for quite some time. Maybe smaller, and only one per city, but they are a unique medium.

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Dec 17, 2008 5:01 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

you can take your phone...

…or that reader Amazon sells.

by Since1993 on Dec 17, 2008 5:38 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

or a laptop...

Not that I know of anybody who’s ever done that. Gross.

by Rox Girl on Dec 17, 2008 5:48 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

If you are THAT busy

you are TOO damn busy! That’s my few moments of peace in a day.

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Dec 17, 2008 5:58 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously, if the Rocky goes away......

I’ve wondered what happens to the writing talent. What happens to Tracey and Kreiger?

I think ink and paper news will be around for quite a while. Too much invested for it to just fold up (no pun intended).

by pedalpusher on Dec 17, 2008 8:17 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Catcher

Probably more than any other position, catchers rely on getting in a groove at the plate and unusual health to put up elite offensive numbers (apart from Piazza who never was much of a catcher to begin with).

I think its always wise to curb expectations there especially offensively. Iannetta looks like he could become an elite hitting catcher (.290, 25 hr, 125 games), but at that position, he’s a bruised hand away from being a singles hitter for several weeks.

I think its more important to show he can catch 130 games and handle the pitching staff than for him to dominate at the plate even with the loss of a big bat.

The other part of the question is this; if he does show to become an elite hitter, do you really want him to stay at catcher where he has a 4 to 5 year window historically before his body breaks down?

by brainteaser on Dec 17, 2008 9:01 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I mentioned this in a fanpost a few months ago,

But I think we could look at him as an heir for Helton as much as anybody else in the system. I know there are some problems with this defensively, but the bat is probably our best option there so long as McKenry and Rosario continue to develop.

That would give him three more seasons at catcher, which hopefully won’t be too much on him as long as we have capable backups taking some of the burden, and then a move to the easier spot. An internal only 2012 lineup could potentially look like:

C: Rosario/McKenry
1B: Iannetta
2B: Gomez
SS: Tulo
3B: Stewart
LF: Smith
CF: Fowler
RF: Gonzalez

Which is better overall than anybody else’s internal options in the division at this point (the Giants, in a perfect world w/Crawford, Kieschnick and Gilespie are pretty close).

by Rox Girl on Dec 17, 2008 9:15 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I like it

I hope Hawpe is still there.

by brian8065 on Dec 17, 2008 9:26 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Eh

I like Hawpe too, but he’ll be like 33 at that point. Not horribly old, and I can see him over Gonzalez anyhow, but AGE AGE AGE AGE AGE

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 17, 2008 9:29 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Is it just me or

Does it seem like the Rockies should try to target a power bat in this draft’s first round? Ideally a 1b who could play lf for a season or a lf who could transfer to 1b. By the time this player came up, Helton would probably be a year or so away from retiring (assuming he decides to retire at the end of this contract ). This might be stupid though since the Rockies have the 11th pick which while respectable isn’t really anything to get too excited over, and also it seems better to just draft the best talent available…

by Resolution on Dec 17, 2008 9:50 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

maybe

With the 11th pick, you take the best player you are confident you can sign. I agree that Iannetta is probably best suited to be our long range first baseman. If you draft a bat, you are likely 2-4 years from having its impact in your line-up, so the first round pick is about making sure you get as close of a sure bet to make the majors as you can possibly get.

The Rockies will be looking for power, but it will take a while for a hitter in the 2009 draft to make it to the big club and who knows who else has emerged in the in between time.

by brainteaser on Dec 17, 2008 10:41 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe

But we should probably just take the best player available. We’ve shot ourselves in the foot too many times by not doing this.

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 17, 2008 11:01 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

I was impressed

The person writing the letter chimed in and said “IANNETTA ISNT THAT GUD BECAUS HE DOESNT AVG HIHG LOL” and Harding pretty much said “Nobody cares about Average with a catcher, his OPS is pretty fantastic.” And I smiled inside. I’ll forgive RBI talk if you’ll cite OPS and shoot down AVG.

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 17, 2008 9:06 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

I have to admit

my reaction to the question was similar, and Harding, by shooting it down, began to make up for that silly “Bucky on teh trading blockz!!11” nonsense.

Blast and botheration.

by Silverblood on Dec 17, 2008 9:14 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh my

That might have been the worst beat-article I’ve seen him write.

“The Rockies are doing nothing more exciting than signing Alan Embree….so here’s a bunch of guys we could trade!”

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 17, 2008 9:22 AM MST up reply actions   0 recs

While we're on the subject of low Coors BABIP's

In addition to Iannetta, Todd Helton last season had one of .282 at home compared to a career average of .358, Troy Tulowitzki had a BABIP of .260 compared to a career .330. Seth Smith hit a ridiculously low .141 on balls in play at home.

Spilly (.370 vs. career .348) and Atkins (.362 vs. career .351) were a bit high, but not excessively so, while Brad Hawpe was pretty much dead on his career average (.335 vs. .334). The only projected 2009 starter to really have been overly lucky compared to the rest of his career was Barmes (.367 vs .315).

One of the reasons I think people are underestimating the Rockies in 2009 is that I see a lot of home field mojo coming back just by players going back to their averages at Coors.

by Rox Girl on Dec 17, 2008 11:13 AM MST reply actions   0 recs

As long as they can remember how to hit with RISP…if it is a repeat of last year in those situations, they are probably doomed to a mid-division finish no matter what the pitching does.

by Hizilla on Dec 17, 2008 12:15 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

How exactly do you refresh that memory

do you just put people on the bases and take BP? How exactly do you practice hitting with RISP and/or get better at it?

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 17, 2008 1:37 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

A great question

Let’s hope Don Baylor knows the answer?

by Hizilla on Dec 17, 2008 1:52 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

The game is 90% mental

Yogi knew what he was talking about. It’s a lack of confidence, gripping the bat too tight, being too patient/impatient. It’s all about having a consistent approach, which needs monitoring throughout the season. That is what the hitting coach is for. Hoping Baylor will have more insight than Cockrell

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 17, 2008 1:58 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Um

the point was these are all tips on how to bat better. Period.

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that's right on time It's Tulowitzki!...Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ..... rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com

by Andrew Martin on Dec 17, 2008 2:16 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Which they need help with too

after so many slumps last year. That calming, trustworthy coach is needed when the mental aspect gets the most of the batters, or when their mechanics are lost. Certainly, hitters don’t lose their mechanics solely in RISP conditions. The only way to improve RISP hitting is the hitting coach, imo. Hey, you asked.

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 17, 2008 3:30 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

Well there's one I got wrong...

Furcal hurts, but Manny’s the one that I’m really nervous about. If he goes back to LA, our road to the division gets quite a bit tougher.

by Rox Girl on Dec 17, 2008 5:50 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

No he signed with the BRAVES

please oh, please I hope he changes his mind again and signs with the Braves

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Dec 17, 2008 6:00 PM MST up reply actions   0 recs

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