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Saturday Rockpile: Walking On LA

One thing that the Dodgers recent moves have been doing has been to cut into the Rockies projected advantage over the rest of the division when it comes to getting on base. As new TrueBlueLA writer Eric Stephen points out, LA has been building some patience into their lineup, so it might be good to take an updated look at where the two teams are side by side in this regard.

 

From Stephen's post, here are the seven eighths of the Dodgers lineup with their Rockies counterparts as well as their one notable dream piece that's still floating in the FA market,

Signing Manny is the final piece to make the 2009 Dodgers a fully functional offense.  Hopefully one that will walk all over the rest of the NL West.

Well, let's see:

Star-divide

Actually, before we start, I want to add that park factors for drawing walks will skew these numbers a bit. Both Dodger Stadium and Coors Field suppress walks to a similar degree overall, but if you look at how those effects play out on a split level (available at First Inning) you'll note that almost all of Coors' suppression happens with left handed hitters, whereas LA's home park is more biased against right handers although not nearly to the degree that Coors hates patient lefties. So keep in mind that Russell Martin's advantage over Chris Iannetta in this department could be bigger than the raw numbers show, while Todd Helton's ability to draw the BB over James Loney is likewise more impressive than shown.

 

C - Russell Martin - Chris Iannetta

 

Catcher BB% O-Swing%
Martin 14.0 19.8
Iannetta 14.4 16.2

 

Even though Iannetta has the better eye, what actually gives Martin the advantage is another column that I probably should have included of contact made outside the strikezone. Martin connected on 60.9% of his swings outside the zone in 2008, while Iannetta only made contact 39.4% of the time. So while Martin was able to foul more pitches off to get another chance to draw a walk, Iannetta would wind up flailing for a K. These are two of the best catchers in the business at drawing a walk, it's very close but I think Martin has a tiny lead.

 

1B - James Loney - Todd Helton

 

First Base BB% O-Swing% O-Contact%
Loney 7.0 26.6 73.8
Helton 16.9 16.5 80.2

 

There's a decisive advantage for the Rockies here.

 

2B - Blark DeRetta - Cleff Barmer

 

Second Base BB% O-Swing% O-Contact%
Blake DeWitt 10.9 24.0 65.6
Mark Loretta 9.8 18.0 72.2
Clint Barmes 4.1 35.7 68.2
Jeff Baker 7.8 24.7 50.4

 

While the Dodgers have a clear advantage at second, keep in mind that DeWitt walked in more than 10% of his plate appearances for the first and only time in his professional career in 2008. He's probably not as patient as his totals with the Dodgers last season made him look. Loretta, on the other hand, seems to have been unlucky when it comes to his walk numbers, I'd look for a rebound in 2009. Neither will be close to as bad as Barmes in this category. Baker's got a similar problem to Iannetta in that his inability to make more contact when he chases is preventing him from drawing more walks. Decisive advantage to the Dodgers here, cancelling out Helton's lead at first.

 

3B - Casey Blake - Garrett Atkins

 

Third Base BB% O-Swing% O-Contact%
Blake 8.4 26.5 64.7
Atkins 6.1 19.1 63.8

 

These are the full season numbers, but Blake was significantly worse in all three columns with the Dodgers than he was with Cleveland last season. It's difficult to say why, although the park factors I mentioned up top may have had something to do with it. Meanwhile, Atkins' low walk percentage seems very unlucky given his peripheral discipline rates, as with Loretta, I'm expecting a big rebound in 2009. I'm going to call this one a draw to a slight lean for Atkins; my hunch is that due to park effects that Atkins will have a significantly better looking season in 2009, though.

 

SS - Rafael Furcal - Troy Tulowitzki

 

Shortstop BB% O-Swing% O-Contact%
Furcal 12.3 24.5 79.8
Tulowitzki 9.2 23.7 71.9

 

These two hitters show the value that being able to make contact on swings outside the zone can have in walk rates. I do think Furcal's 2008 numbers were a bit lucky in this department and expect a drop back. He still could have a slight advantage over Tulo, however. As with the right side of the infield, it looks like the left sides cancel each other out. 

 

LF - Manny Ramirez - Seth Smith

 

Left Fielder BB% O-Swing % O-Contact %
Ramirez 13.6 25.2 63.0
Smith 12.2 28.5 59.7

 

Ramirez's advantage over Smith in drawing walks comes entirely from fear, if it weren't for IBB's, Seth's numbers would look better. That' fear's not going to go away in 2009, though considering how Ramirez ran roughshod over the division in 2008, so advantage LA. 

 

CF - Matt Kemp - Ryan Spilborghs

 

Center Fielder BB% O-Swing% O-Contact %
Kemp 7.1 31.5 51.5
Spilborghs 14.0 17.1 54.7

 

LA's hoping Kemp takes further steps forward with his plate discipline, but there's a large advantage for the Rockies here.

 

RF - Andre Ethier - Brad Hawpe

 

Right Fielder BB% O-Swing% O-Contact%
Ethier 10.1 25.7 65.7
Hawpe 13.5 23.7 52.0

 

I think Ethier's a little better situated here with the park effects and that higher O-Contact percentage, even though Brad had the better 2008 walk numbers. I could see them reversing in 2009. Projections seem to disagree, however, and see Hawpe drawing a dozen or so more walks than Ethier next season.

*****

Final conclusion? If the Dodgers wind up getting Manny to return, I don't know if the Rockies will retain their lead in plate discipline, but I can't say for sure that they lose it, either. I think the infields cancel each other out, so it comes to Martin vs Iannetta and the outfields. We have a clear advantage in center, with the corners being a more interesting mix that could go either way (Manny's plate discipline advantage over Smith isn't nearly as much as I thought it would be, and Hawpe projects well but doesn't look so good with deeper digging). Ian Stewart had a 10.1% BB rate in 2008 with some bad peripherals, but he also has a decent minor league track record of drawing walks over 10% of the time, so he should be an interesting wild card. Delwyn Young had similar success with bad underlying stats in 2008.

 

There is no competition in the discipline category from the other teams in the division for these two, so this will be an important battle for the Rockies to ultimately win if they want to finish ahead of the Dodgers in 2009.

0 recs | Comment 8 comments

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Via MLBTR:

FoxSports says that the Rockies might also be interested in Braden Looper if they can’t sign Tim Redding.

Looper would be an interesting pitcher to bring in, I’m curious how his splitter would play at Coors Field but overall, I think he may be a better option than Redding, and a good example of a decent pitcher that’s seeing his value slide for no apparent reason as the winter progresses.

by Rox Girl on Dec 20, 2008 11:06 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can you explain

how the ballpark has any direct affect on the patience of hitters? I can see how hits, runs, HRs and ERAs are altered. I can maybe buy how walks and K’s are different by ballpark, depending on the “batter’s eye” in CF and other parts of the environment. But why on earth would there be a huge difference for lefties vs. righties? That seems like a statistical anomaly. I’d be interested to see historical stats for several years on that…

by Poseidon's Fist on Dec 21, 2008 11:43 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Coors LH/RH split on BB's is a little too large to be an anomaly...

If you look at the site, it’s one of the widest gulfs there is between hitters for the MLB parks. Arizona’s K’s have a little larger split, but I’m not exactly sure why in either case one side would be getting effected so much more than another.

by Rox Girl on Dec 21, 2008 12:58 PM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The alignment

of windows at Chase Field?

Ceci n'est pas une signature.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 22, 2008 9:13 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Looper IS better than Redding

Back in my Astros fan days, Tim Redding was the great pitching hope of the franchise (followed by Jason Hirsh). He not only bombed as a player, he was very unpopular among his teammates & the press. The Mets then gave him a second shot, based on his great minor league stats, and he bombed there, too. So he ended up on the scrap heap pile — a/k/a the Washington Nationals — where he had surprising intermittent success in 2008 as a last gasp rotation-filler. But if he’s not worth it to the Nationals to bring back, is he really worth the Rockies spending money on? Only if he’ll take a low base plus incentives so he’s easily releasable if he bombs again. Can you say Kip Wells? Redman? Rusch? Redding is of the same caliber.

Looper is one of the few successful reliever-to-starter conversion projects and has pitched well for the last couple of years. He’s better than Redding and worth a bigger gamble in payroll dollars.

(P.S. I’ve had a devil of a time trying to post on SB Nation — keep having to reset the password every time I post — so I gave up under my old account (Maris61) & re-upped under 61Maris. Hope to post more on Purple Row this year, my Astros having abandoned me & the rest of their fans by dumping payroll & signing has-beens like Aaron Boone for major roles on the team. )

By the way, Mark Loretta’s over the hill now. The Dodgers will regret signing him. He has the range of, well, Jeff Kent on defense, and has lost the little power he had at the plate.

by 61 on Dec 20, 2008 4:02 PM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not sure why

but saying that a guy wasn’t worth it to the Nationals to bring back has been one of the best arguments against signing a guy I’ve seen in a while. Also the Nationals just signed Daniel Cabrera – I know there was some talk here of him being a decent signing for the Rockies.

The only concern I have with bringing Looper over is that it seems like a lot of pitchers that no one expects anything out of can go to St. Louis, work with Dave Duncan, and become a great pitcher. Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, Braden Looper, even Chris Carpenter to an extent were all mediocre or just not a starter and then under Duncan’s tutelage all turned in a quality season. I’m not sure how any of these guys would do away from Duncan, let alone in the biggest hitters park around…

by Resolution on Dec 21, 2008 9:16 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is also

Assuming the Rockies don’t start with CarGo in the OF, at which point our plate discipline takes a large hit…

by Resolution on Dec 21, 2008 9:20 AM MST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If the Dodgers can assume Manny instead of Pierre

We might as well assume our most disciplined potential alignment as well.

by Rox Girl on Dec 21, 2008 10:14 AM MST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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