Saturday Rockpile: Back to being underrated...
To paraphrase an infamous Dan O'Dowd statement from last season, maybe high expectations weigh down on the Rockies. So this could be a good thing. At any rate, with the Giants signing of Randy Johnson, one of the reactions I've seen (not from our level headed friends at McCovey Chronicles so much, but check out the comments at FanGraphs) is that this puts San Fran into the LA/Arizona range of contention for the NL West. I half agree with this. RJ helps the Giants, he'd help almost any team in the majors, even as a 45 year old because you just aren't going to find that level of pitching in too many other places. The half I don't agree with is who this makes the Giants competitive with.
Looking at the big picture, the two teams that are hurt most by Johnson going to San Fran are in Phoenix, which already lost his production, but now must deal with the double whammy of it going to a rival, and Los Angeles, which still needs two starting pitchers, one to replace Derek Lowe, and one to insure they don't abuse their young arms, and now has its choices limited. Looking at the best remaining available free agent starters, the picture looks more and more like the Dodgers are going to have to rely on a major breakout season from Clayton Kershaw to remain at the top of the division in this department, and there's a pretty solid chance that they could be sliding back to the Rockies level in rotation contributions for 2009. CHONE projections see the Dodgers current top six starters (Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw, Stults, McDonald and Schmidt) at 94 runs over replacement. Those six aren't going to cover all of the Dodgers required innings by starters, and you're looking at sub replacement level starts from the pitchers further down their list. The Rockies current top six starters (Jimenez, Cook, Francis, Smith, JDLR, and Hirsh) meanwhile, project to 111 runs over replacement, project for more innings, and our next pair down the list (Reynolds and Morales) also project to provide over replacement level production in 2009.
The math, and knowing the preferences of the FA's on the market, still doesn't seem to work for me that the Dodgers will be able to pass the Rockies in rotational contributions for next season and still sign Manny. Arizona's still ahead in the division in starting pitching, but they are shallow and RJ would have helped fix that for them. They still have the worst offensive outlook among the four contenders.
Right now, it's kind of shaping up in an interesting fashion in that the four teams project to be very close and have to hope for different unlikely things to go right to give them the edge.
Arizona: Stay almost perfectly healthy
Colorado: Not be terrible defensively
Los Angeles: Get huge performances from young starters Kershaw and McDonald
San Francisco: Not be terrible offensively
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Amen
I am very glad that the Rockies are underdogs again, because we play much better when we aren’t expected to win (then again, the sample size of when we are “expected to win” is only one season).
by onholliday on
Dec 27, 2008 11:50 AM MST
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I think the more accurate statement would be....
that we haven’t played very well when we were expected to win, 2008 and 2001 being the most relevant examples. We thought we’d be contenders after signing Hampton and Neagle in December 2000, only to flop pretty badly which, by early 2002, cost Buddy Bell his job.
Other than those two seasons, we have been “blessed” with low expectations almost every year of our existence, save 1996 and 1997. I don’t think we’ve played “better than expected” in all the other seasons.
by GoRoxGo on
Dec 27, 2008 12:03 PM MST
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You're Right
But I also think that we tend play much better in the second half (even in losing seasons) because of a lack of pressure.
by onholliday on
Dec 27, 2008 2:26 PM MST
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True enough.....
The Rockies have often quickly buried themselves, only to come together as a ballclub when they are afterthoughts. Pressure, or lack thereof, has something to do with it.
by GoRoxGo on
Dec 27, 2008 4:49 PM MST
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Oy... why do managers and GM's continue to do that...
I could understand signing Taveras, he has some value for some teams, and the Reds would be one of them, but that part about them wanting him to hit lead-off? Ugh. Glad it’s the Reds problem now, though, and not ours.
by Rox Girl on
Dec 27, 2008 2:33 PM MST
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it’s the Reds problem now, though, and not ours.
The Reds are this year’s Astros.
by onholliday on
Dec 27, 2008 2:53 PM MST
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Isn’t it still your problem because now you have to watch him?
by Hizilla on
Dec 27, 2008 3:30 PM MST
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Yeah, but at least I don't have to be emotionally invested in it...
It’s a lot easier to laugh at idiocy when it’s not coming from your team.
by Rox Girl on
Dec 27, 2008 4:52 PM MST
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Kershaw 2009
could be similar to what Billz did in 2008. I hope Billz can give us another 2008 with the injury to the leg. If he is ready for Spring training, then I think he can give us another 2008, or better.
There are still decent SPs available on the market…and their prices will come down.
I like the Dodgers chances of getting Manny…..which will give them the best offensive lineup in the West:
Furcal
Martin
Ethier
Manny
Loney
Kemp
Blake
Dewitt
SP
Billz
Kuroda
Kershaw
McDonald
Stults?? FA?
Bullpen-all very solid
Broxton
Kuo
Wade
Elbert
I think Ned will use the same philosphy he used last year….see how they stand at the trade deadline, and trade for a SP (instead of hitting), if he hasn;t done so already.
raygu
by raygu on
Dec 28, 2008 9:40 PM MST
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