Wednesday Rockpile: Garrett Atkins to stay with the Colorado Rockies?
by Russ Oates on Dec 3, 2008 8:26 AM MST
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PrintThomas Harding runs down what the Rockies will look to do at the Winter Meetings this week:
- Find a left-handed reliever: Joe Beimel, Alan Embree, Will Ohman, and Eddie Guardado are names we've heard before, but Trever Miller, Mike Maroth, and Ron Villone are new ones.
Well, Trever Miller may be a St. Louis Cardinal at some point. He did reach an agreement in principal with the team, but it hasn't become official yet. Cardinals' GM John Mozeliak doesn't believe Miller's arrival in St. Louis is inevitable. This century, Miller has been a good pitcher for two seasons (2004 with the Blue Jays and 2006 with the Astros) and out of baseball for two seasons (2001-02). According to ERA+, Miller was slightly better than average in some of the other years (102 in 2003, 107 in 2005, 107 in 2008). The less said about 2000 and 2007 the better. Mike Maroth, 21-game loser in 2003, didn't pitch in the majors in 2008. Ron Villone, a Rockie in 2001, is Ron Villone
- Try to find buyers for Willy Taveras, Yorvit Torrealba, and possibly Huston Street.
It seems hard to imagine at this point that someone out there will trade for Torrealba, but we do know at least Kenny Williams is interested in Taveras. Or, at least he was at one point this offseason. If Taveras is traded, look to find the Rockies and Scott Podsednik reach a quick deal for 2009. I'd like to keep Street, but if the right deal comes along it maybe too hard to say no to.
- Decide on Garrett Atkins' future with the Rockies.
The decision appears to be made for Dan O'Dowd, according to Troy Renck. While the Reds and Twins have been the two teams he has discussed trade proposals for Atkins over the last month, O'Dowd hasn't bitten on any trade. Maybe that frontline starter will become available during the Winter Meetings. If it doesn't and Atkins stays with the Rockies, Ian Stewart's role with the team continues to float in the air. A return to the minors isn't happening, so left field or second base. Once way or another, I want to see Ian Stewart in the starting lineup on Opening Day.
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If this means Helton is a pricey PH/Defensive Sub/1-2starts a week to rest Atkins and Stewart, then I am ok with it. Somehow I don’t think the teams management is quite that smart and this will end up meaning Stewart or Atkins plays out of position. Hopefully it plays as well as Ryan Bruan moving to LF did, but I’m not optimistic.
I don't think
we should underestimate Helton this year. I think, while he is declining, he will be better this year and he will be back to what he was in 2007 or better.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK
I don't entirely disagree
I think both Atkins and Helton are in line for rebounds this season, and rather than selling low on Garrett, it might be wise to hold him as a chip until the July trade deadline. Figuring out the best way to get everybody their playing time without damaging the quality of the team is that next issue. I just worry that the Rockies may sacrifice too much defense to make it work, and I do think that benching Helton too much would qualify as he’s still a positive defender at first. I still think the best scenario has Garrett sliding into left and hoping that Spilly isn’t a huge liability in center. We’d be overloading on the infield defense at the expense of the outfield, much like my little league coaches seemed to do when they put me way out there, only, I couldn’t really hit that well, either.
Selling
Assuming that the Rockies would be selling low on Atkins right now is a big assumption. If it’s based on the currently weak demand for third basemen, or the current financial climate, fine. But if he goes the way of Jeff Cirillo, yikes. They’d be lucky to end up with a piece like Fuentes coming back in that deal. The projections aren’t too flattering.
This is a sell year early/year late situation, not a low/high situation. A young starter, with a B pitching and B position prospect would seem about his value this year and would be the right thing for the Rockies to do.
The projections are better than his 2008
Which is what he’s currently being valued on. If he starts of with a .300/.360/.475 line, he will have more value on the trade market than he does right now. I think it’s a matter of if you really feel like his decline is linear and steep and will only worsen next season, than unloading him now is the best option, but he doesn’t strike me as that kind of hitter and instead I expect him to have a more gradual bottom. His swing speed isn’t noticeably slower, he’s not hitting fewer line drives, he was just chasing a bit more during 2008 as far as I can tell. I just don’t really see the Jeff Cirillo comp as that accurate, but I could certainly understand your position if you do.
Projections
The projections, aside from OBP (and I don’t see a home/road split, so who knows what that means) are still a huge drop off from ’07. While ’08 very well may have been an especially bad year, remember how he began ’07. It took a phenomenal latter half of the season to dig out from under that dumpster of a first half.
So, we’ve got a guy who’s regressed 1.5 out of 2 seasons, and will be 30 next off-season. He’s taken 40 point dives in OBP the last two seasons. His slugging has dropped a hundred points since ’06. The chances that his ’09 gets back up to the final ’07 numbers seems slight. Plus, depending on how much he plays at 3rd/1st, by next off-season teams may only view him as a first base option. Which means the Rockies will have two first basemen with declining skills and declining value on the roster.
I’d much rather see Atkins moved for good talent and suffer a Helton/Baker combination at first and sign a short-term 2B option (or open up a chance for Hawpe to try some first) then wait until next off-season and risk a decline in skills.
What were your positives and negs in left field?
Plus arm, nice legs, good with the sunflower seeds. Capable of handling the orange slice.
Welcome back Don Baylor. You're like a cold turkey sandwich, an oldie but a goodie!!
As much as
I’d like to see Taveras and Torrealba flipped for some talent, I don’t think either of them alone (or even together) could really net anything big. I like Atkins and like him on the Rockies but keeping him creates the problem of what do we do with Stewart? As well as keeping Atkins’ subpar defense, so I’m not opposed to moving him to another team. But I think I’d rather keep all these three guys instead of trading them off piece by piece or trading them now for the best offer available which may or may not actually be a good offer.
It still seems like a sluggish sellers-market for a myriad of reasons and I think it’s unrealistic to think a teams assessment of themselves will remain static through the season. That being said, a team that would like to have Atkins at 3b but doesn’t necessarily feel the pressure right now to dish out quality could begin to feel the pressure into the season. Also, waiting allows Taveras (and Atkins to a lesser extent) to increase their value by either a hot spring training, a hot start to the season or both. Let’s also not forget that a new president will be around which may or may not impact the economy (I’d like to think that things couldn’t get much worse) which is currently being cited as a big reason for teams being slow this offseason.
Bottom line, if not just a relatively good offer, but a truly good offer can’t be worked out, I don’t think it’s foolish to wait and think that in a few months from now baseball and (potentially) the economy will different.
Here's a thought...
This is assuming Helton returns to at least 2007 form (mad OBP, and at least doubles power). If he returns healthy, there is zero chance the team carries him as a $16m PH/defensive replacement/spot starter, so I don’t even include this in discussion.
Does anyone here think there’s any merit at all in trying Atkins out in left field? Would Atkins in LF with Stewart at 3B create less defensive liability than Atkins at 3B, Stewart at 2B, and Spilly in LF? This assumes CarGo in CF, and Dexter Fowler starting out in AAA.
I worry about Stewat at 2B, because I think that could have a detrimental effect on his offense, when he’d already probably be a bit -EV defensively at 2B.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Anyone remember
the 14 innings Atkins played in left field in 2004? No, that’s not a joke—I just don’t remember. Anyway, Rox Girl brought this up a couple of weeks ago. Atkins would be a liability in left, but not as much as he is at the hot corner.
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He played
pretty well for a few innings at second this past year as well. What, one really great play to his left and a couple double plays.
DON’T PUT HIM THERE.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK
What,
you don’t want to see CDI at third and Stewart as a catcher?
"Never Surrender Dreams" - Inscription on J. Michael Straczynski's bench
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
You can't argue with the results we had with 2/3 of that alignment
That was a fun game in a not so fun season.
You mean..
Apart from Tulo getting hurt.
Welcome back Don Baylor. You're like a cold turkey sandwich, an oldie but a goodie!!
Well, I obviously repress some parts of it.
I mean, sure if you want to break up my Pollyannaism like that, go ahead.
Tulo getting hurt
Whenever I think about that game (which I was at), I just pretend I don’t know how long Tulo’s going to be out. Which I didn’t at the time. So that way I can just focus on the fun aspects.
Off topic,
but I’ve been working on a WWII memorial project for several years now. Over the last year, I and several others have worked on creating a website for it. The site just went live a little while ago. If you’d be so kind, check it out.
"Never Surrender Dreams" - Inscription on J. Michael Straczynski's bench
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
I can't get over this rush to run Garrett out of town.
Does anyone really know if Todd’s back is going to be ok? That a mid-30ish guy coming off back surgery will make a quick and complete recovery (and returning to previous physical conditions) isn’t something that has a high probablility of success. If we get rid of Atkins and Todd has more back trouble, what then? Koshansky at first. Not sure that’s a good plan right now. Hawpe was originally a first baseman but I doubt you move him in from right.
And I guess I’m somewhat surprised by all the negativity surrounding Atkins’ defense. I watch every game on TV and a few in person and I think he is a servicable third baseman. Not a Mike Schmidt for sure, but he’s light years away from when he first moved over there.
So the question really revolves around whether or not Todd is healthy. Wait it out and see what develops in Spring Training. There will be plenty of time to move Garrett after Todd’s health is assured.
Agreed
Helton’s health is the single best reason to keep Atkins around at least through Spring Training. I think there could be other reasons as well though. For instance: Right now I believe O’Dowd was shopping for a starting pitcher in return or Garret. Always sensible, but limits the over-all return value somewhat. Especially important when we have Morales, JDLR, Reynolds, Hirsch, and Smith all competing for two rotation spots in Spring. If (and this is always a big if) say two or three of those guys have lights-out performances in Spring…. Maybe we stop asking for specific pitching needs and start looking for the best available players/prospects at ANY position. It’s also possible that some team will lose their 3B, 1B, or DH this Spring and that would add a bit more competition to the talks. For that matter maybe we’ll have an injury or under-performance someplace else entirely that we would be able to fill by trading Atkins. Bottom line is I see more reasons to wait awhile on Atkins than I do to trade him right now.
Praise for O'Dowd from Peter Gammons
A burb for his recent column:
“We have seen a legitimate star in Matt Holliday traded for three young players. Why? Oh, the Rockies believed the Scott Boras free agent circus was a distraction after they were told $18 million a year for Holliday wasn’t enough to buy happiness in this economy, but Colorado general manager Dan O’Dowd was ahead of the curve. He saw that there are far more corner bat/DH players available than there are teams willing or able to get into the kind of dollars offensive numbers traditionally have earned.”
It’s a decent read: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3741640&name=gammons_peter
If somebody wants to teach me how to hyperlink stuff I would be grateful. The formatting guide didn’t seem to work.
Hyperlink
Click the little link symbol, and copy the url into the box that pops up. After you hit submit, type the text you want to use for the hyperlink in the spot where the cursor is (it appears in the correct spot automatically after you submit). Ouila!
Some of this
is bad news as it relates to Atkins though. It looks like we will not be pulling the wool over anyone’s eyes when it comes to his defensive deficincies. Oh well.
Atkins good and bad last year
Garrett really improved his defense at third base last year. The stats from Baseball Prospectus show that, but it was also evident by watching. I believe he worked very hard over the previous off season to improve that part of his game. And remember, he is a converted first baseman. That shows a lot that he was able to make that transition when probably 9 out of 10 players would fail.
The really bad thing about Atkins though is his reduction in walks. In 2006 he had a .409 OBP. That was a big number that created a lot of excitement from a player that was not supposed to be that good. He walked 79 times that year, then 67 the next, and then a terrible 40 last year, all with about the same number of at bats.
I like his attitude a lot. He seems like a good person and good teammate, and a hard worker. He is the type of player that fits in well with the Rockies.
Another option in this dilemma is to trade Ian Stewart, who we could get a lot more for.
I like Pedalpusher’s idea of waiting for spring training.
I still think
The Rockies should just invest in a time machine. It would be the best way to improve the team…
Assuming you can change the past,
what exactly would be done?
"Never Surrender Dreams" - Inscription on J. Michael Straczynski's bench
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Oh My....
Where to start….. I wouldn’t send Matt Nokes in to pinch hit under any circumstance. I wouldn’t sign Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle. I wouldn’t pitch to Matt Williams. I wouldn’t hire Jim Leyland. I would trade Larry Walker before the great decline. I’d invent the humidor in 1992. I’d draft Lincecum and Pujols and every other all-star that was drafted after we picked. I’d trade on the cheap for every unknown player about to have a break-out year. I’d…. I’d build Coors Field closer to Iowa. :(
Remember when..
The debate was surrounding whether to sign Mike Hampton or A-rod? Then the Rockies signed Hampton and Neagle for A-rod numbers and everyone said, “That was a great signing!” remember that? That would have been a great time to invent the humidor. Or at least sign A-rod so we could have seen more Madonna.
Welcome back Don Baylor. You're like a cold turkey sandwich, an oldie but a goodie!!
Ummmmm
What part of Madonna haven’t we seen?
What he said
The Rockies could have had Lincecum and anyone could have had Pujols, and I think Peavy went a few rounds later in that same draft.
Honestly, I wouldn’t make them an all-star team because winning 110 games a season every season would just get old. But right now I like their team and feel they’re basically a starter and a bat away from easy contention so yea Lincecum and Pedroia?
According
to an article by Harding on the Rockies website Garrett may now be interested in a long term deal.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
JFK
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