Wednesday Rockpile: Jason Marquis and the Pitching Staff

by Russ Oates on Dec 31, 2008 2:41 PM MST in Thoughts From Up High Comment 40 comments

First, the Denver Post obtained details on Willy Taveras' contract with the Reds. He signed for $6.25M. Yes, that $6,250,000. The $2.25M for the 2009 season can be defended, but $4M in 2010? The Reds better hope there's a new rule in baseball that allows a player to steal first base.

With the expected announcement of the Jason Marquis trade next week, let's pull together some thoughts from the reactions to this trade.

If the season started today, the rotation would likely be Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeff Francis, Jason Marquis, and Jorge De La Rosa. The first three starters aren't in question, but the fourth and fifth starters can be flipped with each other (I list it that way in order to break up the lefties). And there's always a chance that one of the other pitchers on the periphery for the rotation could enter into the equation: Greg Smith, Franklin Morales, Greg Reynolds, and Jason Hirsh. I can see Smith or Hirsh winding up in the bullpen, but since he has an option year left, Hirsh would be better off starting for the Sky Sox. Oh, and the ever-present Glendon Rusch is an option.

Does this move make the Rockies' rotation appreciably better? No. This is more of a lateral move, but the Rockies certainly have depth. And as Rox Girl wrote in a comment to her FanShot on the trade as I typed this up:

There are a couple of Yogi Berra-esque principles involved with young pitchers that you usually have to take into account:

1. You never know if they’ll really be good (until they are).
2. You never get as many innings from them as you hope you will (until you do).

The Rockies now have both principles adequately covered.

Now youth is the fallback option.

-----

Memo to the Monfort Brothers: If Broncos' owner Pat Bowlen can (and did) fire Mike Shanahan after years of mediocrity, disappointment, and sheer ineptitude in some areas for the Denver Broncos, you two can fire or let go of Clint Hurdle, who is in the last year of his contract. Granted, Mike Shanahan had a few more responsibilities with the Broncos in addition to being the head coach, but Pat Bowlen extirpated a Broncos institution. Clint Hurdle is the closest thing to an institution the Rockies have--but without the accomplishments. One winning record in seven seasons is not good. Period.

And maybe you two have seen the writing on the wall that Clint Hurdle can't stick around forever. The additions of Jim Tracy as the bench coach and Don Baylor as the hitting coach, both former major league managers, would certainly seem to indicate that. So, here's a final thought for 2008: If the Rockies aren't close to .500 (I'll leave that vague enough for me to later interpret it as I want) by June, Clint Hurdle should no longer be the manager of the Rockies (as well as Bob Apodaca as pitching coach).

Pat Bowlen got rid of a coach he once called "coach for life." Surely, you two can let go of a coach who has done far less for his team.

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Comments

Even if it is a lateral move

it also gives us another year for Chacin to develop in the minors, with the possibility for a few spot starts in August ala Ubaldo in 2007.

Plus, I think the $4mil it will cost is well worth the 100+ inning upgrade from the Viz to Marquis.

Definite A+ trade in my book.

by Muzia on Dec 31, 2008 9:51 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Yea I agree

that the real value of acquiring Marquis is that you know what you’re getting (as best as one can ever know in baseball) for a year while giving Chacin and Morales time to develop. Also, since Marquis has been around for a while and is a solid addition, it may take some pressure off of the rest of the rotation without the top 3 feeling like they have to carry the team since the fourth and fifth spots were pretty iffy prior to the trade. It’s also been mentioned that this allows one of our other surplus starters to move to the bullpen (Smith?) who will probably be better in relief than Vizcaino was last year…

I like the sheer depth we have with starting pitching right now, because when the inevitable injury(ies) occur, there will be a batch of young guys who will be allowed to get major league experience without as much pressure as there would be on them making the team out of spring training…

by Resolution on Dec 31, 2008 11:23 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Hurdle

is now the longest tenured coach of the major professional sports in Denver. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it!

Thought Clint Hurdle should be fired before it was cool.

by Redhawk on Dec 31, 2008 9:54 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Can't believe

Shanahan was fired….

Ceci n'est pas une signature.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 31, 2008 11:12 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Not only that...

O’Dowd is now the longest tenured GM of the major professional sports in Denver. Stick THAT in your pipe and smoke it!

The 2009 Colorado Rockies: Expect the Unexpected

by free7694 on Dec 31, 2008 11:22 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

$6.25 million for Taveras??!!!

Ouch… At least watching the Reds defense will be easier this season (in the outfield anyway, I’ll try and get an obstructed view seat that blocks out the IF). But, Taveras, ouch. ouch.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 10:04 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

LA Gonzalez returns...

According to Renck, on a minor league deal. This effects Omar Quintanilla and Jonathan Herrera the most, but there’s also an implicit non-endorsement of EY2 and Corey Wimberly in this move.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 10:35 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

ESPNews

reporting Fuentes signed a two-year deal with the Angels.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Dec 31, 2008 11:12 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Meaning the Rockies

get the final pick of the regular 1st round (33 right now).

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Dec 31, 2008 11:13 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

That gives us picks 11, 33, 35 and our second and maybe third round picks

In the top 100, or close to it for that last one. That’s not bad as far as refilling the system goes.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 12:04 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Tentative?

Aren’t the comp picks tentative until all of the Type A FA above Fuentes are signed?

TGFPR!!

by jlot10 on Dec 31, 2008 12:32 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah if the angels sign Manny

wont that pick be lower?

by purplesocks on Dec 31, 2008 12:38 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Somewhat, in that the 33 pick could become the Angels second rounder if they sign Manny

Or Bobby Abreu. But there’s been zero interest from them for either player. The 35th pick is similarly pretty much locked in thanks to our record last season. It will only change if the Reds re-sign Adam Dunn and then it gets bumped to 34.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 12:42 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

How would Dunn affect the draft order?

The Dbacks didn’t offer him arbitration….

Ceci n'est pas une signature.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 31, 2008 1:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

shh... don't point out my massive brain lapses...

The 35th pick is actually locked in for the Rockies but it has nothing to do with Dunn, who has nothing anymore to do with the Reds especially since he was traded to a divisional rival no less, and the alien parasite that took over my body for a minute to post that has since been removed surgically with a brick wall to the forehead.

No we actually pick 35th because we’re the team with the second worst record among those given comp picks, the Mariners pick 24th thanks to Ibanez.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 1:58 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you

mean 28th thanks to Ibanez?

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Dec 31, 2008 2:00 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

no, I'm talking about the supplemental round

the Mariners get the first supplemental round pick as well as #28 from the Phillies because they had the worst record of teams with compensated free agents getting signed. The Rockies get the second pick in the supplemental round because they had the second worst record among teams getting compensation, and I based this off of my understanding of a Keith Law post a couple of years ago, but looking at last season’s draft, where the Angels got the first sandwich pick for Torii Hunter, I now think Law might have screwed me up on the matter.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 2:09 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, so

you meant 34th instead of 24th in that comment? That’s what’s throwing me off.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Dec 31, 2008 2:13 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, that was a typo, I meant 34th, oops.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 2:15 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

and the alien parasite that took over my body for a minute to post that has since been removed surgically with a brick wall to the forehead.

Or I could just continue my drunken neurosurgery. I won’t touch Denny Neagle this time?

Ceci n'est pas une signature.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 31, 2008 6:19 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah the Denny Neagle nerve is pretty raw...

I’d avoid that one, although I’m starting to get a little anesthetized myself this evening.

Happy New Year, to everybody, by the way.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 6:28 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, it's

possible the pick could move up to 32 if the Mariners sign Josh Fields. However, I haven’t heard anything on that front since the end of August. I expect to see something happen in the spring.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Dec 31, 2008 1:52 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

The money.

It’s for $17.5M, with $9M possible for the 2011 club option.

"If we never try, we shall never succeed." - Abraham Lincoln

Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Dec 31, 2008 11:58 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Thumbs up

I’ll give this trade a thumbs-up. Marquis is one of those guys I always thought should be a bit better than the results he’s posted, and I could see him as a legitimate middle rotation pitcher for us if everything goes right. Plus the money thing worked out well by dealing away Viz. I also like this trade because it’s one of those trades that just makes sense for both teams.
As for the projected rotation…. I differ slightly. I think Smith has an edge on JDLR. Not because of stuff, where I think JDLR is had it hands down. Rather the fact that Smith has seen a full year of consistant starts, and more importantly….. As I recall JDLR finally put it together towards the end of his time in the bullpen, and I think I recall him occasionally having trouble going deep into games. I hope he is a dominant starting pitcher for us for a long time, but I think it might be a safer bet that his dominant “stuff” could be consistant in the bullpen, where it’s possible he could remind us of Fuentes. At least until one of the other starters faulters. It’s a tough call, but it’s one of those dilemmas we should feel lucky to have. As for HIrsch, I’m still really high on this guy, and would not be surprised to see him really make this decision a tough one. To me he still looks like a top of the rotation starter trying to put that last piece together but being held back by injuries. Reynolds I have less faith in, and Morales sort of falls into the all-or-nothing/ace-or-bust category. Morales could also be an interesting closer option as well. Bottom-line = Interesting Spring!

by IowaRockie on Dec 31, 2008 11:27 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

While....

…the Jason Marquis and Greg Smiths of the world don’t get me all worked up, at least the chances of the Rox tossing out a legit major league starter on any given day are considerable higher now than during last season. If you lose, say, three starters to injury, you’re still watching Greg Smith or Jason Hirsh out there as a fill in instead of the rotating cast of nobodies we endured last season.

And lets face it — if Francis returns to form (and if he’s healthy there’s no reason at all not to have high hopes for that) the Rox have a very respectable rotation, with plenty of bullpen depth.

At this point, I’m willing to cede O’Dowd’s point: 2009 will depend entirely on guys like Tulo, Atkins, Corpas and Francis putting up the seasons of which they’re capable. if they do, we’ll be int eh thick of things in September. If they don’t, the King Soopers $5 ticket promotion will be back by July.

by BroJB on Dec 31, 2008 11:56 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

My Dodgerfan friends

are unimpressed. As am I. I’m trying to be “positive” going forward in general and in particular for this next year…but its fair to say that the earth didn’t shake when I read about this deal. More mediocrity is still mediocrity. After the Holliday Concession, I want to see the kids this year.

by Teekalong on Dec 31, 2008 12:20 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Your Dodgerfan friends don't understand the value of an average inning pitched

But they will in 2009 at the rate their team’s going. Right now I project them to have to rely on pitchers with an over 5.00 ERA for between 500-600 innings. That number could vary depending on how you project unproven starters like McDonald or Stults or relievers like Elbert, but that’s not a pretty proposition to be facing without a safety net like Marquis. Instead, they’re focusing all their attention on re-signing Ramirez and watching the pitching market erode from beneath their feet. Last I heard, they were inquiring on Jon Garland and Randy Wolf to “fix” this. Garland in particular falls into the same category as Marquis of under-appreciated workhorse, but the Dodgers required replacement gap for 2009 is a lot wider than the Rockies.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 12:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

You must have missed

their big pitching splash this morning. They signed Claudio Vargas!!!!!

by Hizilla on Dec 31, 2008 1:08 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I did miss that...

Great, now they’ll get sub-standard pitching in slow motion.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 1:45 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I've read your projections re pitching

and I don’t necessarily disagree. But I also note that the talent that the Dodgers are bringing along is massive. Billingsley is already closing in on ace status. Kershaw has as much talent as any young pitcher in baseball and looked pretty good last year. Kuroda is pretty nice. McDonald has huge upside. I don’t think it will be too hard for them to pick up another guy or two that would be equivalents to Marquis/Francis/JDLR level next year to fill out the rotation. Losing Lowe hurts them, for sure, but its not devastating. And of course, they can always swing a deal if the kids aren’t ready. Frankly, their pen is the bigger issue to me.

But one thing is clear to me: if they bring back Manny, on paper, they are a lot better than we are right now.

Nobody is going to pick us above 3rd as currently constituted, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fair amount of 4th projections for this squad. For my part (and not trying to beat a dead horse) but I think we should be rebuilding/reloading next year because playoffs are incredibly unlikely with this team. No amount of projections or conjecture will convince me otherwise. But fortunately, they don’t play games on paper or on calculators, so there’s always hope.

by Teekalong on Dec 31, 2008 1:56 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Mostly Agree

However – Billingsley is coming off of a broken leg, spiral fracture of the fibula that required surgery. I would be shocked if it doesn’t affect him for at the very least the beginning of the season, if not the whole season. I hope it doesn’t, because I like watching him pitch, but thats a pretty serious injury.

by Hizilla on Dec 31, 2008 2:49 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll start with the points I agree with

Billingsley = near ace
Kershaw = mucho young talent
Kuroda = pretty nice

After that, though, you kind of derail. First of all, just looking at the names and talent without a realistic assessment of how many innings you can expect them to pitch in 2009 makes them look a lot better than they really are. You’re talking about three pitchers who have never experienced the workload they did in 2008 and there will likely be some price to be paid for that. Billingsley in particular seems ready for a regression next season before a strong rebound in 2010. Kershaw isn’t going to be extended more than 160 innings next season, possibly less than 150, which means he should only count as 2/3 to 3/4 of a starter. McDonald is the same category. So I’m looking at 185 IP from Kuroda, about the same if they are lucky from Billingsley, and two even more partial starters in McDonald and Kershaw.

What’s more, McDonald also equals a Hirsh type of upside of a pitcher that’s dominated in the minors without overpowering stuff. Dodger fans are expecting far too much from him for 2009 both in terms of quantity and quality. There is no certainty that he’ll even be a replacement level starter in 2009, at best I’m expecting #4 level production for 150 innings, but I’m thinking the likely scenario is #5 level production for less than that.

So that leaves me adding up to a cap of about 500 quality (4.5 ERA or less) starter innings. In 2008 they got around 740. Right now, there are only three free agents left (Lowe, Sheets and Pettite) who project to be in that category, and the Dodgers are looking at none of them. That’s a precipitous drop-off they’re writing into their script for next season. They just gave a 25 man roster slot to Claudio Vargas. This rotation isn’t very good anymore, and it’s looking likely to be a distant fourth best in the division in 2009, six or seven wins behind the D-backs and Giants, and at least three behind the Rockies.

Manny doesn’t make that go away. When defense and position are taken into account, I project him to be only the NL West’s fourth or fifth best position player in 2009, with Martin, Iannetta and Tulo all ranking ahead of him and possibly Raffy Furcal if he gets enough playing time. Adrian Gonzalez is right there too. I don’t think he’ll have nearly the impact you seem to be seeing. The bottom line to me is that the Rockies have as much claim to this division in 2009 as any team right now.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 3:09 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

I sure hope you're right re your last sentence

but I’ll believe it when I see it. The Rockies were not all that good last year, and I’m not sure that I see a ton of improvement (or, really, any improvement). Who knows.

I think your arguments make sense re the Dodgers pitching except for the fact that, notwithstanding some bizarre behavior this offseason, the Dodgers have deep pockets which can make certain problems go away…like pitching depth. Plus, they still have a fair amount of players to move at the deadline if they need to. Quite simply, we should all be very happy Ned Coletti is in charge out here, because a halfway competent GM would have this team approaching juggernaut status. He may stumble into it anyway.

And if you think Martin, CDI and Tulo are “better” than Manny, well…I guess we don’t see certain things the same way.

by Teekalong on Dec 31, 2008 7:12 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

re: Manny

It depends if you really believe he’s still as good as he was with the Dodgers last season, or if that was just a late career spike for a once great player. At 36, I have a hard time believing that he’ll have any more seasons like 2007 in the tank, and that he’ll at least revert to the 3.2 to 3.9 win player he was for Boston in 2004 and 2005, if not to the 1.2 win player he was for them in 2007. It’s the same sort of skepticism I apply to Todd Helton giving the Rockies seasons like he did in 2007, age related declines don’t happen only for Colorado players, though.

Martin and Iannetta are both relatively safe bets to be 4 plus wins over replacement at catcher, Tulo should be at shortstop, although I’ll admit that projection has some of my patented optimism attached. I think apparently we do see things differently, however if you’re still valuing Manny above them going forward.

I certainly am glad that Colletti’s at the helm, and the McCourt’s for that matter, as I doubt I’d be so sanguine if I saw competence from the top over there. Their deep pockets won’t fix their issues if they don’t have the right pieces in front of them. No matter how much money they throw at Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones to solve the centerfield mess or to Jon Garland to shore up the rotation, it won’t change the fact that these aren’t the players that they need. If you pay me $20 million dollars to model for Victoria’s Secret, I’m not going to suddenly look like Heidi Klum. It’s simply a matter that they’ve already let the pitchers who could solve their problems go by, and there aren’t any available to trade. Even if there were, at what cost? They’re basically down to Kershaw as a bargaining chip, as nobody’s going to trade a quality starter for Hu or DeJesus or McDonald or any combination thereof and the rest of their prospects are too far away to be of consequence.

by Rox Girl on Dec 31, 2008 8:55 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs