Thursday Morning Rockpile:

by Rox Girl on Feb 21, 2008 10:01 AM MST in Rockpile

Yorvit Torrealba says he's capable of more than he showed in 2007. While I'm not holding my breath, that would be nice, as right now his value is probably barely worthy of being a starting MLB catcher, and that's with giving him lots of bonus points for blocking the plate and handling the young staff the way he has.

Also noted in that Tracy Ringolsby piece, Jeff Baker is certainly taking the competition for second seriously by dropping twenty pounds. Unlike Ian Stewart, Baker's move to the keystone makes a lot more sense to me. Baker was a shortstop in college at Clemson with Khalil Greene on the team, so his defensive agility has always been there. If he handles the pivot well and his bat shows up, he could be a potent force that's added to our lineup. It's been my contention that whoever emerges from this competition as our starter will add more to the club than most pundits seem to be expecting, but a lot of that is because expectations are so low to begin with. I want to see 3.5 WAR from the starter, and have that as a target. If we can do better than that, it will be a big step to returning to the playoffs. If we do much worse, then we'll likely meet Xeifrank's sim projection.

Todd Helton has also lost weight according to Patrick Saunders and has seemingly given up on the idea of proving himself a power hitter anymore. I'm glad he's matured to this realization. He's definitely not the 40 HR Helton of yore, but the value that his OBP provides in lengthening games and adding run chances is huge. Let Matt and Brad and Garrett and even Tulo step up in the power categories, it's time for the the sage veteran to focus on what he does best.

One more Ringolsby note: the Rockies want to stay in Tucson for Spring Training, Tucson wants the Rockies to stay, you'd thing that the two sides would be able to come together at some point. Troy Renck also goes with the story, and adds notes about Chris Nelson, Jayson Nix, Aaron Cook (another player that lost weight) and Ramon Ramirez. Both Ringolsby and Renck note that Josh Fogg's contract with the Reds seems imminent.

Dan O'Dowd's former assistant Josh Byrnes got an eight year extension from the Diamondbacks to be their GM until 2015. He's made some decent trades to clear salary, but a lot of the team that went to the NLCS last season was inherited from the Garagiola regime. That's just a long commitment to me without a clear track record to say he's earned it yet, but D-backs fans seem to like the direction he's taking the team so I hope it works out for them.

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Ianetta

Also of note in the Ringolsby article, Chris is apparently ticketed for the Springs this year so he can get regular playing time, taking over as the starter in 2009. I read it as he will only come up if Yorvit gets seriously hurt. I am neutral on this. I don't want him to waste away in Denver if he's not going to play, but I also don't want him to play in the Springs because I feel he is capable of outperforming Yorvit if given the opportunity.

by Prospector on Feb 21, 2008 11:49 AM MST reply actions

3.5?

"I want to see 3.5 WAR from the starter, and have that as a target."

3.5 real WAR, or 3.5 BPro WAR? Makes a big difference...

by Heltonfan on Feb 21, 2008 12:41 PM MST reply actions

Yes, I should have specified

And I should have been more careful, thanks for calling my BS on that. I actually meant to go for non B-Pro WAR, but that leaves the 3.5 estimate ridiculously high even for optimists, sometimes I still don't realize how screwy B-Pro's WARP is and how much it skews my perception of reality anyway.

Marcels says Giles will be 1.42 WAR without any defensive adjustment by using Tango's method of calculating. I'm optimistic that we get that offensive output from whoever wins the job, even if it's Nix -I know you're not going to agree with that, but I think that given the skillset of Baker and Nix and the history of Giles, chances are one of the three are able to outperform projections this year. I think Nix adds a win defensively and though I think he's capable of adding another half win on the basepaths, I'm not so confident in projecting more than a quarter of a win there. That still leaves us around 2.75 WAR, but it's about half a win better than average.

Baker's capable of being a 3.5 win player on offense, but I think it's safe to say his defense will detract some from the position, and the max I see him contributing is three if we're using the Tango WAR, a pragmatic and biased optimist like myself probably should have him closer to that 2.75 figure.

I don't really believe in Giles, but I guess if he's capable of a rebound then we can probably look to something similar.

by Rox Girl on Feb 21, 2008 1:36 PM MST up reply actions

What are the chances...

That the current crop of 2B's washes out and a Chris Nelson comes into the picture by the all-star break?

There's only one Rocktober!!

by Charlie77 on Feb 22, 2008 8:36 AM MST up reply actions

I'd actually put better odds of EY Jr.

Being the surprise to come from that level of the minors and usurp the second base job mid-season. His defense isn't quite to Nix's level, but I think questions that have arisen about it this off-season are off the mark. He'd be a better bet to be a positive than Nelson who probably will have growing pains making the switch. According to Dan Fox's SFR rates, Young was a +9.4 defender while Nelson was at -1.0, the gap would widen initially as Nelson made the switch.

What's more, I think EY's bat plays above his scouting profile, the projections certainly seem to like him as he's got a bit more patience than usual for hitters of his ilk, and enough pop to get things over the infield. He's already got his Dad's baserunning skills, the bat's coming around and he just needs a little more of it. I think he could finally be the prospect I've been saying he'll be for a couple of years now.

Anyway, my opinion is that he'll be the one to watch out for midseason if none of our current group is working out.

by Rox Girl on Feb 22, 2008 10:01 AM MST up reply actions

Interesting prospect...

EY Jr. has a lot of speed, where would you predict he hits in the Rockies current lineup? Do you think he would push Tulo back into the 3rd spot, with Holliday 4th and everyone else a spot back?

There's only one Rocktober!!

by Charlie77 on Feb 23, 2008 7:38 AM MST up reply actions

I'd still say eighth

He'd have to prove himself to Hurdle before Clint would think about moving him up to near the top of the lineup. He'd work as an interesting bottom of the lineup element in this scenario as opponents would have second thoughts about putting him on ahead of the pitcher given his speed. A walk, an SB and a sac bunt and all of the sudden you'd have a speedy guy at third with the top the lineup coming up. I'm envisioning some nightmare (for the opponents) squeeze scenarios with Taveras in that situation.

by Rox Girl on Feb 23, 2008 11:17 AM MST up reply actions

I saw this article

Although it has nothing to do with the Rockies I thought it was interesting:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-marlinsballpark&prov=ap&type=lgns

It Looks like the Marlins are going to get a new ball park home!

My snarky comment and the whole reason for this post: All four Marlins fans went nuts with their celebration, ordering another round of that Cuban coffee.

I miss Kaz! He really could Rock-a-Rhyme, even if it was Tricky

by Redhawk on Feb 21, 2008 2:18 PM MST reply actions

Or

The Marlins fans went crazy with their celebration, all 4 of em.

Fill free to insert your own punch line

I miss Kaz! He really could Rock-a-Rhyme, even if it was Tricky

by Redhawk on Feb 21, 2008 2:20 PM MST up reply actions

Done Deal

It is complete, the Marlins will have a new stadium. Now the Marlins will no longer have the name "Florida" but instead be called Miami Marlins. 37,000 seats that will not be filled and the Miami Marlins will not be able to leave for 35 years. This will be an interesting set.
GO ROCKIES!!!
JFK

GO ROCKIES!!! JFK

by jrockies on Feb 21, 2008 10:04 PM MST up reply actions

Miami Marlins?

Entirely too much repetition in that name - doesn't roll off the tongue. Though now Back to the Future will be partially right...

by oo_nrb on Feb 21, 2008 11:34 PM MST up reply actions

Actually..

Miami Marlins sounds pretty good when you say it with a Cuban accent.

There's only one Rocktober!!

by Charlie77 on Feb 22, 2008 8:37 AM MST up reply actions

any mention of the marlins

just gives me a flashback to the marlin manitee dancer post from a few days ago

by 4atjc4 on Feb 21, 2008 3:22 PM MST reply actions

Done Deal

Fogg is a Red

Best of luck to you, Dragon Slayer.

by oo_nrb on Feb 21, 2008 3:32 PM MST reply actions

Funny

After all the talk about him getting a multiyear, $20 million contract, he settles for 1 year/$1 million from the Reds. Does this signify that GMs are becoming more wary of overpaying for mediocre free agents, or just the way the chips fell in this one instance?

So long, Fogger. Thanks for all the fish...

Get Demented :: Gang Gridiron.

by Silverblood on Feb 21, 2008 4:27 PM MST up reply actions

Dirty word

Collusion.

Fortunately the union is so detestable that the owners engaging in unethical and probably illegal activities doesn't elicit much response from the public.

by MADness on Feb 21, 2008 5:26 PM MST up reply actions

Except

Essentially the owners were detestable before the players were detestable -- first they actually did collude in the 1980s in order to hold costs down, and all these things like the salary cap and the luxury tax are their ideas to hold costs down and put more money in their own pockets, not for competitive balance like they want us to believe.

Fogg may have been the Dragon Slayer last season, but most owners must have looked at his career performance and decided that he wasn't worth the kind of money he was asking. That's just the true value of pitchers with a mediocre career track record and no mid-90s fastball to make scouts drool.

http://mvn.com/mlb-rockies: The best thing to happen to baseball since 1993.

by Rox Fan in TN on Feb 21, 2008 5:50 PM MST up reply actions

Industry wide

There has been an industry wide lack of free agent activity.

Fogg's expectations clearly exceeded what most people think his value is but that hasn't prevented tons of other bad contracts the last few years.

by MADness on Feb 21, 2008 8:12 PM MST up reply actions

OR

there was collusion.

Actually I think the market is self adjusting. A couple of years ago, there was a wave of expensive free agents signings, cause the teams had new money from TV deals and such.

But now they have to live the hard life, of money in...money out. And there's only so many pieces you can take out of that pie. And they look around..and whose winning...the Twins, the Indians, the Rockies. Low to mid level payrolls.

Well...I mean winning as we are all playing for 2nd place after the Red Sox and Yankees anyway.

Which brings me to the next point: I still think baseball needs either better revenue sharing or a salary cap or both...or there distance between the haves...and the rest of league is only going to get wider.

I miss Kaz! He really could Rock-a-Rhyme, even if it was Tricky

by Redhawk on Feb 21, 2008 8:33 PM MST up reply actions

Either way,

It's a great deal for the Reds, a better 5th starter than I think we gave him credit for. Fogg's probably not going to send his agent a Christmas card, I bet. "Multi-year deal you said, 20 million plus, you said..."

Here's hoping Josh Byrnes turns out to be our secret weapon in the desert. There are more than a few people who say he takes more credit for others' success than he actually accomplishes in his own right.

by Since1993 on Feb 21, 2008 9:51 PM MST reply actions

Helton

Where will he bat in the lineup? Honestly, I don't like him batting 4th. I think he is much more suited for a #3 role than that, but I don't know. I like Matt at the #3 spot at the moment.
I'm kinda hoping he gets some power back, maybe to the 25-30 plateau. Love his eye and how he works at bats.

"This is a game to be savored, not gulped. There's time to discuss everything between pitches or between innings." -- Bill Veeck

by TheChamp on Feb 22, 2008 1:35 AM MST reply actions

Did any one else notice..

The part of Rencks article that states the White Sox have to pay $28 million to break their lease and leave Tucson? That seems to offset the cost of upgrades to the Rockies facility.

There's only one Rocktober!!

by Charlie77 on Feb 22, 2008 8:39 AM MST reply actions