Willy Taveras, Can't Steal The Big Base

by Xeifrank on Mar 24, 2008 12:41 PM MDT

2007 play logs from FanGraphs shows that Willy Taveras was a very poor base stealer for the Rockies last year. While his raw steal total was high, his percentage was very poor in high leverage situations. The average Leverage Index on a Taveras stolen base attempt last year was 1.28 (1.0 is average leverage index). The leverage index on a successful attempt was 1.14 and the average leverage index on an unsuccessful attempt was a whopping 1.834. This means that last year Taveras was good at stealing lesser important bases, but quite poor at stealing bases of importance. So much so that he actually hurt the Rockies last year stealing bases. His total WPA (Win Probability Added) was -0.186. His linear weights wins added was .366, but linear weights does not take game context into consideration like WPA does. Of the 10 top base-stealers from the NL West in 2007 that I looked at, Taveras had the worst WPA. The best was Juan Pierre with a 0.648 WPA, followed by Eric Byrnes with a 0.419 WPA.

vr, Xeifrank

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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good

he really wasnt given a green light in high leverage situtions. plus we r national league champs. so there.

At least the broncos dont totally suck

by roxfan4life on Mar 25, 2008 12:04 AM MDT reply actions

I always enjoy your post.

If it weren't for them, how would I know that your simulations have us an inferior team. But I guess there is a reason that they play the games on a diamond as opposed to in a computer.

I kid, I kid. I don't put as much value in those kind of things that some do, but maybe that is becuase I don't fully grasp it yet, as I am new to it all.

As far as Taveras goes, I kind of had the feeling last year that he never really stayed healthy enough for us to see what he could really do with his speed. Of course, that could be an issue again this year. Hopefully by next year this is a moot point, and Dexter Fowler will have us all saying "Willy who?"

Hurry up and be March 31st already.

by jcd823 on Mar 25, 2008 12:51 AM MDT reply actions

Sims

Replacement Level Yankees blog has a big sim post. Rockies don't do great in their sims too. :)

http://tinyurl.com/2fv6pw

vr, Xeifrank

by Xeifrank on Mar 25, 2008 9:17 AM MDT up reply actions

We actually do pretty well in CAIRO

Which is SG and the RLYW's in house system. It's ZiPS and CHONE that we don't look so hot in.

I've got to say I found this post pretty interesting, actually, and I will be curious to see if -as your title would suggest- that there's such a thing as clutch stealing, or if it doesn't show much year to year correlation. While I suspect the latter will be true, if Willy T again fails miserably in stealing the big base in 2008, maybe we shouldn't be so dismissive.

by Rox Girl on Mar 25, 2008 9:35 AM MDT up reply actions

I would guess that....

measuring a leverage index for stolen bases would run into problems with small sample sizes, so probably the results aren't too relevant.

Having said that, Taveras has always had a problem with stolen base efficiency. He simply gets caught too often (right near the break even point) and has so throughout his career.

by DenverBears on Mar 25, 2008 5:13 AM MDT reply actions

Clutch stealing

I also doubt there is such a thing as "clutch" stealing. But I believe defenses act differently in a high leverage base stealing situation. More throws over to first base, more pitch outs, slide steps etc... In 2007 Taveras didn't have much success as a base stealer when you dig deep and look at the WPA as opposed to linear weights. I am not trying to make a ground breaking revelation, just reporting what took place last year for the NL West's top base stealers.

vr, Xeifrank

by Xeifrank on Mar 25, 2008 10:44 AM MDT reply actions

Helton/Holliday swap should affect SB's

I have a feeling that by swapping Helton and Holliday the Rockies will actually be able to steal more bases than before. With Willy in scoring position it would allow for more Tulo RBI's and then allow Helton to set the table for Holliday. With Helton's patience at the plate there will also be more opportunities for a stolen 3rd base now.

There's only one Rocktober!!

by Charlie77 on Mar 26, 2008 5:45 PM MDT reply actions

Not great

Willy isn't a great base-stealer, despite his speed.

He seems to lack both the technical skill and the 'feel' for the art of base-stealing.

I wonder if the Rockies have had someone working with him since he was acquired or not - it could probably help as base-stealing is a little bit of a lost art over the last decade or two and the emphasis hasn't been there on it in all systems.

by MADness on Mar 29, 2008 11:23 AM MDT reply actions