Tuesday Morning Rockpile:
by Russ Oates on Apr 29, 2008 9:19 AM MDT
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PrintIf it wasn't clear before last night, it must be today: expect to see changes to the rotation. Last night's "fifth-inning fiasco" may have been the tipping point for deciding Morales' rotation status. And Wells didn't help his cause to move into the rotation after his performance last night.
Morales isn't the only one in trouble, as Ubaldo Jimenez and Mark Redman are also walking a fine line. The article speculates that if both Jimenez and Redman continue to struggle, expect Jimenez to move to the bullpen and Redman to be cut loose. If both moves happen and Franklin Morales is demoted, who does that leave as possible rotation candidates? Well, Matt Morris doesn't appear to be an option, but Josh Towers and Greg Reynolds may be promoted. However, O'Dowd doesn't sound too enthusiastic about promoting Reynolds now:
"Towers has been good, and Reynolds had a good start last time out. We would like to give Reynolds more time down there, though," said O'Dowd of the prized prospect.
Maybe a few more good starts by Reynolds and O'Dowd will be a bit more confident in him.
But as we all know, it hasn't been just the pitching. O'Dowd also had this to say:
"Frankly we deserve to be (10-16)," said O'Dowd, who is mulling over a couple of minor trades to improve the club. "It's a lack of execution. Our starting pitchers, overall, haven't performed. We haven't gotten big hits. We haven't run the bases well. There is no rhythm to our games, offensively or defensively."
Well, we have Cook on the mound tonight. What does that mean? Good pitching, no hitting. How about changing the latter tonight, guys?
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I have 2 thoughts
1) Great that they see and understand the rotations struggles. Lets look at it:
Franchise: He’s there, and committed Safe regardless of his struggles.
Cook: Best of the Rotation so far: Safe
Jimenez: Heading to the bullpen..makes sense I guess
Morales: Heading to AAA. And really needs to. He looks so lost and rattled before he even throws a pitch
Redman: Out on Waivers (???)
OK: total -3
In: Capellan (I assume)
Towers (who isn’t that good to begin with)?
Wells: doubtful, he’s looked really inconsistent out of the pen. but I assume he’s the only other choice available.
Reynolds: Not ready yet, and replacing one struggling rushed pitcher with another rushed pitcher isn’t the correct answer.
Total: +2 Um…I’m not the best with math, but that’s has the Rockies missing a starter unless Wells is put in the Rotation.
I’m not sure a rotation of Francis, Cook, Capellan, Towers, Wells is an improvement over Francis, Cook, Jimenez, Morales and Redman. And it looks terrible compared to the D-Backs rotation of Webb, Haren, Johnson, Owens, and Davis/E. Gonzalez
2) It’s not all the starting Pitchers fault: We aren’t hitting well at all. (.227 BA with runners in Scoring Positiion). Our big moneyed savior of a Shortstop is batting .194 which is not that much better then Nix who was batting .152. Hawpe is batting only .241 with only 2 home runs.
If we are sending down kids that need to work out their heads and their games like Morales, Franklyn should have a traveling partner in Tulowitzki. Tulo has no idea where the strike zone is, and the Rockies need to break him out of his sophomore slump sooner rather then later. 2 weeks in the Springs might be the correct answer. The Rockies can lose with out him as well as lose with him.
All this adds up to (from the Fox Rocky Mtn Post Game report last night) The worst start of any defending National League Champion in the HISTORY of the National League….think about that one.
What am going to do with all these "Jeff Baker for 2nd" bumper stickers?
You're being (statistically) kind
to Tulo, who’s hitting .152, and Hawpe, who has only one homer.
But your point is well taken: I can’t imagine that a few weeks in Colorado Springs would hurt and might provide him an opportunity to regain his stroke in a non-pressurized situation. If he does stay in the Rockies’ lineup, and certainly his defense alone could justify that, hit him 7th or 8th.
Trades?
What minor trades could O’dowd be mulling over? Anyone with any insight on this?
No insight
But I would have to think that any trade would involve pitching. I’m not at all sure that a “minor” trade in this area is going to help us much, however.
\sigh
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~ Earl Wilson
Demoting Tulo
Is not the answer. He has struggled mightily, but demoting him will cause the Rockies to be mocked at endlessly, and probably would be demoralizing to Tulo. The most important thing he needs to focus on though is going the other way, which he simply is not doing. People here should remember back that Vinny Castilla was very similar, a guy who performed like a stud when he went to right center-right field, and when he was trying to pull everything it would be grounders to short all day. Tulo needs to stop trying to pull those outside pitches, I’ve noticed it for 2 weeks now, teams are throwing him away, and he’s trying to pull everything.
As for pitchers, my pre-season/spring training fear has been realized. I knew the pitching was weak, and that has been made true. Redman and Jimenez are just too inconsistent, and Morales isn’t ready. I really wish they would’ve made a trade for a pitcher, heck, imagine netting Santana? Trading away Morales, Stewart and maybe another prospect or two might’ve netted him, who knows. I was extremely frustrated at management for not trying to improve the pitching staff(rotation and bullpen) over the offseason.
I don’t know who is available, but we really do need to get help.
I'm not talking
sending Tulo down forever, just a couple of weeks. Get the message to him that he needs to get better, get his head straight, and do it away from the bright lights of a big league club (even one with the dimmest of lights that is the Colorado Rockies of Denver)
What am going to do with all these "Jeff Baker for 2nd" bumper stickers?
You've got a point...
But it’s a bit of a slap in the face, and it could negatively affect Tulo. He’s the man, and the organization has said so. Imagine sending Helton down a few years ago. Then multiply that by 10 because he’s the man coming of an NL Championship.
Yeah,
He THINKS he’s the man….which is the problem. Big headedness really hit him hard and has amplified his Sophomore Slump. Sending him down will either:
A) Crush him: which means he was too weak to be the man in the first place
b) Piss him off, make him try even harder, which is part of his problem. Then he will realize working harder isn’t always the answer for baseball.
C) Wake him up, maybe he will realize he can’t do TOO much. Get a better perspective of his role on a 25 man team. Breathe in and out…relax
D) Re-Learn the strike zone and hurt the Sky Sox rather then the Rockies
What am going to do with all these "Jeff Baker for 2nd" bumper stickers?
I think everyone around him hurt.
He thinks so, but it’s been put in his mind by others…
The hype from the organization (comparable to AI coming to Philly/Nuggets)
The hype from the media
The countless stories of him turning the team around after KC games at home.
The huge contracts
Other teammates calling him the captain.
He is trying too hard, we can all see that. I think the coaches know this, but for some reason haven’t cut that out of him yet.
Sooner or later
someone has got to put some of the hitting struggles on the organizational philosophy. They sent Iannetta packing last year because of his patience, and that is a joke. I understand not wanting to take called 3rd strikes, but this philosophy of being overly agressive is killing any chance of offense we have. I know they throw out the averages of hitting on the 1st pitch and it sounds great, but thats only if the ball is put in play. If they swing and miss or foul it off, they are instantly behind in the count and start the at-bat more defensively. Hitting is almost always at its best in a favorable count, and you can only get that w/ patience, not to mention all the other side effects, getting pitchers out earlier and getting to the middle guys.
Even Cain commented on using our aggresiveness against us and I have heard that so many times before. I look at it like this, if another team had Morales and Jimenez would we even be patient enough to get them out of the game early, I don’t think so.
As far as pitching, I don’t like the idea of Jimenez in the bullpen, I would rather him making starts in AAA. I still like the potential he has as a starter, he just needs to get his command, how is being in the BP going to help that? If we demote Morales and Jimenez and send Redman packing, we have to call up Reynolds. Cappellan, Towers, and Wells is a disaster IMO.
by smokinRox on Apr 29, 2008 11:44 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
You are right.
OBP is key.
You put people on base, you score runs. Period. Now when you have a team that can load the bases with patience, then turn around and swing at a first pitch for a GIDP, someone is obviously missing the boat.
Well That will Never Work
doing the little things in hitting…..that’s just crazy talk.
/sarcasm
What am going to do with all these "Jeff Baker for 2nd" bumper stickers?
Another thing...
Obviously hitting coaches are a big deal. Look at any player up and down the Red Sox line up. Those guys know how to watch pitches, and it may be a natural talent for some of those guys, but the rest of them were probably taught somehow.
Regarding my Jimenez
statement above. I’m sorry, I wasn’t aware he was out of options, so in that case I would not want to lose him, so I understand the move to the BP.
Foreign question,
but is there a reason why the front office didn’t make a play at signing Claudio Vargas during spring training?
Did they really have no plan b in case Jimenez, Morales or Redman struggled?
UGGH
How about a QUALITY plan B?
What am going to do with all these "Jeff Baker for 2nd" bumper stickers?
Didn't really exist.
Unless you want to part with 6 players for one guy.
Which I don’t really mind. As roxhead said over at his site, there’s a small window of competing and falling, and sometimes you just have to pull a trigger to get you over the edge. The DBacks did with Haren, Mets with Santana.
Windows are made small by big moves.
Look at how the White Sox have fared since trying to load up a window after their World Series win. The farm system that’s now barren has left them trying desperately to scratch out one last chance at success this year because they know it’s going to be awhile before they get another one.
Only one team wins the NL this year, what happens to the Mets or D-backs if they wind up the losers? It will be the same wait ‘til next year story, but with a slightly worse opportunity window, a more bleak horizon looming. Meanwhile teams that have kept the talent pipeline primed like the Braves and Dodgers will be primed to take their divisions in 2009. The Rockies could try to load up everything for a run here, but our current MLB roster needs more than just one player to be really competitive.
I also think this idea winds up giving away better players to keep inferior ones. Ian Stewart, Chris Nelson (assuming he’s at second) and Dexter Fowler all have better tools than the guys currently manning their positions. That wasn’t true of any of the players Arizona or New York gave up.
Very true.
I kinda went media style right there.
The system we had got us to the WS once, why change that.
Very good point.
Very level headed response
And you’re quite right, of course. I’m just not feeling very level headed these days. This month has just been agonizing to watch. We had all hoped for so much.
I suppose the smart thing to do is make a tweak here and there, and see how it plays out. And maybe a good smack across the face from Old Man Humility is exactly what’s needed.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~ Earl Wilson
Agreed
It’s unwise to scuttle an overall well-stocked farm system to take a longshot at winning this year. The D-Backs and Dodgers have plenty of young talent, and the Rockies aren’t going to be able to compete with them longterm if they deal away most of their best prospects.
A better choice would be, if this year’s team doesn’t turn it around by mid-season, to unload players who probably aren’t going to contribute longterm - Helton, due to age, and Holliday, due to free agency & Scott Boras - for MORE good prospects, especially pitchers.
As a longtime Astros fan, part-time Rockies fan, I’m getting real deja vu here. Not only did the White Sox fall far and fast after the ‘05 World Series, so did the Astros. There are some eerie parallels: the ‘05 ‘Stros made the Series after a remarkable run in the last 6 weeks of the season, fueled by some young players (Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane, Chris Burke) who seemed to be coming into their own, suggesting a bright future.
There was an attitude of “We finally made it, and now we’re going to be real good for awhile.” Not so. All 3 of those players flopped in ‘06 and ‘07. The pitching that fueled the pennant run (Oswalt-Pettitte-Clemens & Lidge as closer) was no longer there (see Francis-Jiminez-Morales last Aug., with Corpas as closer). Veterans with declining skills (Biggio, Ausmus, and some bench players) were kept around too long (is Helton a fair comparison?). A disastrous, panic-induced (by Pettitte’s signing with the Yankees) trade of 3 young players for one broken-down bust of a pitcher (Jennings) completed the dropoff.
The Rockies should avoid panic mode. Don’t trade the younger talent for a limited-time veteran (e.g., Fogg). But don’t succumb to the “he was good in our pennant year, so he’ll be good again” mentality for too long. I think it’s too soon to send Tulo down or bench him, but another couple of weeks of sub-.200 hitting would be cause to try something different for awhile (Barmes & Q would be my suggestion). If the D-backs have run off and hidden and the Rox are trailing a lot of teams in the wild-card race by the All-Star break, start dealing for more young talent, especially pitching prospects. Longterm, it comes down to pitching, more than anything. Jiminez & Morales should not be dealt. They’ve both got the stuff to be good starters, but Jiminez needs a break in the bullpen and Morales some AAA time. Be patient with them.
There is a bright side to the '08 season.
Barry Bonds & Roger Clemens are out of baseball.
Return of the Dragon Slayer
Not that he’s the answer or anything, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see the Rox deal a minor leaguer to the Pirates for Josh fogg. He’d certainly be welcomed back into the clubhouse with open arms, and I’d rather see him out there every fifth day than some of the the other options.
Reds/Pirates
Pirates/Reds … it’s all the same. Those teams could swap entire rosters and no one would notice.
There is a bright side to the '08 season.
Barry Bonds & Roger Clemens are out of baseball.
No, they're not...
One team has terrific young talent in Votto, Cueto and Volquez and Jay Bruce in the system; one of the best pitchers in MLB in Harang, one of the best relievers in Cordero (Francisco), a budding star in Phillips and a first-ballot Hall of Famer (Griffey).
I find it hard to believe a fan, no matter where he lives, would have trouble figuring out whether these guys play in Pittsburgh or Cincinnati. There are more teams than just Mets, Yanks, Red Sox and Dodgers.
Still just April :)
The Rockies started the season 10-16 last year, too, so there’s still hope.
I’d suggest sitting Tulo tonight and tomorrow. With an off day on Thursday, that would give him 3 days off. Maybe even have him take a tour of San Francisco to get his mind off things.
Tulo has been victimized by a horrible BABIP this year. 87 balls in play (105 AB – 17K – 1HR) and just 16 hits on those balls for a BABIP of .172. BABIP is largely (but not entirely) driven by luck, and most players tend to gravitate to a BABIP very near .300 (I’d say that 95% of players have BABIP between .270 and .330 in a given year). If he’d have a .300 BABIP, he’d have a BA of .257. Keep swinging and the hits will come.
Quintanilla recalled?
Did the Rockies call up Quintanilla today?
His name is missing from the Sky Sox roster.
bring fogg back
that is the best idea yet. how bout send em omar? he sucks there is no place for him here. omar and ah maybe joe koshansky?
Scott Podsenik for center field 08
Its a sad day
when Josh Fogg is the answer to anything. BUT he would be an improvement over Wells/Tower and we need pitching bodies.
Now if we can only get Good Fogg, and not Bad Fogg with him.
What am going to do with all these "Jeff Baker for 2nd" bumper stickers?
I was ripped for saying it last year
I’ll risk getting ripped for saying it again this year. This is not directed anyone individually, but seriously:
The sky is not falling. It’s April. The team will not continue to struggle with RISP like they have. The bullpen hasn’t been perfect, but it’s far from shaky enough for them to continue losing one run and extra inning games at their recent pace. I will grant that the rotation is a legitimate concern (specifically Morales and Redman), but that still leads me back to my original point. It’s. April.
rockies in october.
I totally agree
It’s just tough to deal with this horrific playing, so I can see why people are so upset, but no, I’m perfectly optimistic: This will not last forever. The Dbacks will lose some games.
www.notthisday.com ....coming October!!!
Sure, but...
As we also learned last year, every single game counts. We’re not replicating 21 days. We will likely improve, but unless there is a dramatic sea change in the pitching and offense, we’re going to be back to our old spot at the bottom of the standings. No time to panic, sure, but no time to scoff either.
I agree
I generally don’t like to see big roster moves until after April, in order to avoid the trap of sample sizes.
However, I believe all the moves they’ve made have been the right ones, and I’d do more save for one: Call up Reynolds.
It’s still early on Reynolds, and he needs more time, but he pitches effeciently and could go 6-7 innings a night and save the bullpen, Aaron Cook style.
But yes, still early, let this ship ride on, and this gives this team a great lesson. I was getting annoyed a bit by all the “special clubhouse, special team” talk only because it was an obvious honeymoon period and the urgency seemed to be lacking. Reality Rockies (and certain beat writer), there’s going to be adversity and this team won’t always handle it well. This isn’t 2007 anymore, you can’t win on reputation.
This may sound harsh, but I think this April is exactly what this organization needed for its future. I think it shows that the process isn’t over, and it won’t end. There won’t be a time when the Rockies have every piece they need, or a group that just has “it.” Continue to farm prospects, use them to their value peaks, move them out for more ready-made players, stay competitive. I do believe O’Dowd gets this, but it’s nice for everyone, players included, to get this reminder.
Morales optioned to Colorado Springs
I assume Quintanilla was recalled as the corresponding move. They also announced that Mark Redman would miss his next turn in the rotation because of the team’s off-day Thursday. Ringolsby notes that Josh Towers or Jorge De La Rosa could take Morales’ start on Saturday.
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