Ubaldo's Future

The biggest issue for the Rockies young pitchers this year has been the problem of throwing strikes. One of the stats that tracks this is K/BB which represents strikeouts versus walks. For instance if a pitcher throws 100 K’s against 50 walks they would be at a 2.0 K/BB. Johan Santana is one of the elite at this ratio, his K/BB this year is 4.0, so he strikes out four times as many batters as he walks.

Can you guess which of these stat lines belongs to a Rockies pitcher?

K/BB_____ERA______W-L

1.68……….4.02……….9-10

1.76……….3.42……….12-13

1.50……….4.50……….10-13

Actually none of them do, they belong to Sandy Koufax, Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson after each respective pitcher's third season in the Bigs. Here is a breakdown comparison with Ubaldo Jiminez’s stats alongside:

Player _______K/BB_____ERA______W-L_______IP_____ER

Koufax…..…….1.68……….4.02……….9-10.……..203.5……….91

Ryan……….….1.76……….3.42……….12-13…….226.1……….86

Johnson………1.50……….4.50……….10-13...….186.2……….93

Ubaldo…….…..1.60……….4.63……….5-7……….130.1……….67

My dad is a big Sandy Koufax fan and I was working on a birthday present for him when I realized that Koufax and Uball’s stats were nearly identical at this stage of their career. So I looked up some other hard throwers as comparison. This table shows that Uball’s walks to K’s were nearly identical to Koufax’s, and even better than the Big Unit’s numbers during the same point of the players development. I think it shows that Uball’s struggles are typical for a pitcher of his genetic makeup and given time he will probably develop into an amazing pitcher.

An interesting thing to watch is Uball’s progression as he is nearing his 25th start. These other pitchers have shown some amazing development right around the 30-45 start range. With most of them showing a significant drop in ERA around that time. Randy Johnson threw his first complete game no hitter during start number 44. However most of these pitchers did not develop a lower walk to K ratio until start 75. Unit’s did not significantly decrease until start 130.

For a glimpse into the crystal ball let’s look at where the other three pitchers finished their careers. Or in Randy’s case through 2007. Uball showed the ability to bounce back in his last game after giving up three runs in one inning, and relied on his curveball to induce groundballs, as well as establishing another out pitch. I look forward to watching him this season and hopefully he continues to progress towards these numbers:

Player _______K/BB_____ERA______W-L

Koufax……….2.93……….2.76……….165-87

Ryan………….2.04……….3.19……….324-292

Johnson………3.24……….3.22……….284-150