Pre-Draft Top 30 PuRPs Discussion
As is usually the case, the early season in the minors for the Rockies has seen some surprises, a couple of disappointments and a couple of key injuries that might shake up how we view the top prospect list.
Surprises:
- Jhoulys Chacin - not that he's good, just that he's this good.
- Greg Reynolds - It's been a surprisingly strong MLB debut for the 2006 first rounder.
- Darin Holcomb - I don't think I expected him to do badly, but he's showing a near complete game with the Tourists.
- Cory Riordan - Asheville's second ace, Riordan's putting up some really impressive numbers. He's got a polished game that might be taking advantage over a rough around the edges SAL to put up those numbers, though, be careful before rating him too high.
- Shane Lindsay - He could be a real wild card in this discussion, I think. A lot to like, a lot to be skeptical about.
Disappointments:
- Franklin Morales - Our soon to be former #1 prospect has drifted back into major project territory.
- Chris Nelson - Speaking of drifting back...
- Daniel Mayora - Has been looking better the last couple of weeks, but still not close to the kind of performances he had the last two seasons.
- Brandon Hynick - He's had an up and down start, but eight homeruns given up already isn't making him look good.
Key Injuries:
- Hector Gomez -
- Chaz Roe - will be back this week
- Pedro Strop - torn ligament, this one hurts a lot.
- Eric Young Jr - Has succumbed to the curse of Eric Young Sr. that prevents the Rockies from having a decent second baseman since he left.
Number one on my list comes down to either Ian Stewart or Dexter Fowler with Reynolds, Chacin and Casey Weathers filling out the top five. Morales probably comes in right around number six, with Nelson, Aneury Rodriguez and Gomez in the top nine. After that I get into a large second tier of guys with lots of talent and a lot of flaws in their performance record -like Lindsay, Brian Rike or Esmil Rogers, or solid performers without the top flight talent like Holcomb and Riordan.
It's going to be a task to sort that all out. That's why we have the discussion first, though, so let's start.
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Rules
how much major league service time do you have to accumulate before you are no longer eligable?
I think we confine it to ROY eligible players.
And I think to simplify it further, we should allow any players eligible for the 2008 award to qualify for the list. Are there other thoughts on this?
So, in other words,
if we want to vote for Jayson Nix, we can?
"Nuts!" - Gen. Anthony McAuliffe
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Pitched
82 innings in ‘07. He went over the rookie limit last season.
"Nuts!" - Gen. Anthony McAuliffe
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Has he exhausted his 45 days?
I didn’t think he had. At any rate, that’s why I thought to make it easier and not have to do all the counting of days on the roster minus September, we’d just have a ROY eligible in 2008 rule for this go round.
Thus, Nix and Morales and Newman in, U-ball out.
ROY rules
FYI, here are the rookie eligibility rules
- Fewer than 130 at bats and 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues
- Fewer than 45 days on the active rosters of Major League clubs (excluding DL time or any time after rosters are expanded on September 1st)
If a player fails either test, he is not ROY eligible.
Status Quo
I don’t think I’ll have any change in 8 of my top 10 from the last poll. Joe Ko and Juan Morillo are out while Casey Weathers (13th in my Feb poll) and Keith Weiser (16th) move in.
Why Weiser? ... because I tend to over rate lefty starters. Decent ones are so few and far between.
That Asheville staff is super-duper nice and I’ll probably move the two studs up very quickly if they continue doing well through the long summer.
I'd suggest taking Cedeno over Weiser...
He’s younger and at a level above in the Texas League. He has better stuff than Weiser but less control, albeit is more likely to make an MLB rotation. I think he’d be a much more justifiable LHP top ten pick than Weiser, but that might just be me.
KNOCK, KNOCK, KNOCK!!!!! Two weeks in a row.
Pacific Coast League
Ian Stewart, Colorado Springs
.450 (9-20), 7 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 5 BB, 6 SO, 2 SB, 1.050 SLG
Stewart continued his torrid hitting for a second consecutive week, blasting three more homers and knocking in 12 runs in six games. The third baseman extended his hitting streak to 13 games while driving in at least one run in his last seven contests. That stretch was highlighted by his two-homer, six-RBI performance Thursday night in an 11-5 win at Fresno—which replicated his line from eight days earlier in a 10-1 victory over Round Rock. Stewart now leads the league with 12 long balls and 42 RBIs.
A couple of notes:
-I’m going to back off my Chacin support a tad and put Stewart back on top of the heap. The power is just to good to ignore, while Chacin’s low rung on the ladder makes him a bit more of a projection.
-Chacin will fall all the way to two… We haven’t had a pitcher like this, Jimenez and Morales included, that can combine power and command to dominate full season ball, as Chacin is doing. He’s efficient and powerful, all the things you want in a potential ace, and a recent BA article suggests he has both grown taller and filled out, possibly to 6’3 190 lbs. He adjusted quickly to Casper, and required no adjustment period to full season ball in a hitter friendly park.
-Fowler lands at third, only because of the success of the two above him. I have concerns about the length of his swing left handed, though it has more of an uppercut, and subsequently, power potential. More raw than his numbers indicate, as he has some holes in the swing and doesn’t take the best routes afield. Still, he’s no Juan Pierre and may just be a Taveras type centerfielder, who makes more than the average amount of outs while not always looking pretty doing it.
-Reynolds to fourth. Still more Garland than Halladay, but this team would kill for a guy that can shoulder Garland’s workload.
-I’m not going to drop Nelson far just yet. He has better bat speed than anyone in Tulsa, but he doesn’t seem to time pitches well. Defensively, it isn’t going to happen at short, and it may not happen in the infield. The tools are stil levident when you watch him, however, so I’ll give him a full year in Tulsa before dropping him, as he may just be a slow starter (see last season).
-Gomez gets a complete mulligan, still very young for Cali and suffering an injury that shouldn’t reoccur. Same goes for Chaz Roe.
-Hynick may drop a tad, but I think he’s still getting acclimated. He’s only had three bad outings in nine starts, it’s just the three were pretty bad, and he hasn’t dominated yet. Unlike some other players in the system, he may be throwing too many strikes. Splitter good, curve not so much.
-Morales, to me, is a tumbler. It’s one thing to go in a bad stretch, but another to have a drop in velocity, stuff, and command, with a different delivery. Not the same player, so when the real Morales returns, so will the high rank.
RISERS:
-Anuery Rodriguez (is getting the performance to match his K and BB rates)
-Brian Rike (close to a five tool outfielder, but flawed)
-Darin Holcomb (clearly has hit tool, but will it transfer? Is third his position?)
-Shane Lindsay (gotta love the K’s, somewhat of a pass for wildness due to inactivity)
-Eric Young (proving he can hit… also was proving he can’t play second…hit tool trumps D)
-Everth Cabrera (Unlike Mitchell, is upholding his hitting both home and away)
-Cory Riordan (Next Hynick makes pitching depth strong, almost expendable)
FALLERS:
-Michael McKenry (Sadly, numbers still buoyed by offensive havens in Cali League)
-Daniel Mayora (Is coming around, but too many other MI’s are having success)
-Lars Davis (better May, but this is not the offensive catcher we thought we drafted)
-Samuel Deduno (service time, TJ, may make him an afterthought)
-Juan Morillo (still like him, but went backwards…fast)
I'd drop McKenry more if it weren't for the LHP/RHP splits
Which are odd for a right hander, and telling me that an adjustment that makes him a positive should be forthcoming. I’m still going to back off of him, but he was another guy who had a better second half than first last season, and I think the same’s going to be true this year.
I’m actually going the opposite direction on EY from you, as I want to see the swing return from his wrist injury before I move him back up, or he’ll get crowded out of the mix really quickly.
I didn't have EYJ high to begin with
so his rising is relative to getting out of the 25-30 range.
Despite a hot start this season, I’m not sure I can rank Wimberly in the top 30. I mean, to be a utility player, should you at least be average at multiple positions? He doesn’t have the hands or throwing mechanics to handle second, or the arm for third. I know Cole liked his outfield play, but I have yet to watch him play out there. He’s not a young repeating and staying young for his level, ala Stewart, and he still doesn’t have power. Build-wise, there is no comparison between Young and Wimberly, Young’s a good 3-4 inches taller and more stout (there’s really not much difference between Young and Nelson), thicker than your typical slap and run guy. I’ve been very pleased with Young offensively, and think he will handle pro pitching.
The problem will be where. He hasn’t had bad plays persay, when i’ve seen him, but he doesn’t look natural throwing or fielding, and is not the best positionally. He’s made great plays on pop ups and fly balls, even a full sprint one to center Fowler was slow to read, but that’s only a small part of playing second.
I think Young’s more likely to take the Chone Figgins route than Wimberly.
One other faller I forgot to add:
Koshansky, older, repeating AAA, pedestrian numbers for a first base prospect.
It's a good question regarding where Young goes
I’ve thought for awhile that you’re right that he’s better suited to become a super utility guy than Wimberly for a few of the reasons you mention, as well as the important one of having much better first plate appearances against opposing pitchers. You can get a sense from this from the first and second inning splits and the splits off of relievers. Young was 7 for 18 with two walks in the first two innings before he went down, Wimberly’s 10 for 32 with four walks and an HBP, which is about the same (.450 OBP with a tiny sample for Young vs .417) but Young has a .917 OPS vs relievers against a .749 OPS vs the bullpen for Wimberly. An ability to adapt quickly to different pitchers is crucial for bench work.
Lindsay
Not sure you can really ignore the wildness—it WAS an issue with him before his injury, after all.
Stay with McKenry
Of all the hitters at Asheville last year, his numbers, especially the home runs, were the most legit. I don’t know what’s happening this year, but the kid can play. Ditto for Mayora, our most consistent hitter last year, though he did get lots of Asheville hits.
Darin Holcomb should be on everyone’s watch list. He can swing it. Rike needs more consistency in his swing.
Chacin is the best pitcher we’ve had here in a long time, period. No one is really touching him in this league. To make him a #2, however, is too generous, too early.
I must admit that Chris Nelson, who I complimented several times last year in comparing him to Gomez, doesn’t seem to have the numbers that I would have anticipated. My bad. On the other hand, while giving Gomez a mulligan seems only fair, I would still start him way down the list from where he is.
I never got to see Hynick in person, but am still puzzled why he’s still struggling in Tulsa. At first, I thought it might be a 30 day adjustment type of thing, but the numbers still don’t make sense. Any in-person observations as to why his performances remain inconsistent?
Finally, Will Harris, our best reliever last year, appears to be even better so far this year at Modesto. The rate at which he keeps striking people out screams for more recognition.
I've been reisistant to add Harris to my list in the past
Just because I don’t like having too many relievers on it, but he’s definitely going to be on it this time around. He’s made a quick adjustment to what’s typically a pretty tough leap.
That’s another thing, those that adjust quickly to Modesto or Tulsa get more props from me than those that jump out to quick starts in Asheville or the Springs or either of the short season leagues. The skill levels of the players go up considerably at those levels. So Harris, Aneury Rodriguez, EY2 and Fowler all benefit from this, while Holcomb and Riordan don’t get quite the same love just yet even if I like them as players to watch.




















