Monday Morning Rockpile:
First of all, I hope everybody takes time today to honor those that have died in service to our country. I can't be more grateful to those that sacrificed their lives so I can enjoy my own life and freedom. It's hard sometimes to watch people pay more attention to getting a good deal on a car, or the perfect steak off the grill and completely ignore the purpose of Memorial Day, but then again, that they are able to ignore that purpose without fear and have the financial stability to buy that car or steak makes me even more thankful to the heroes who helped make it possible.
Okay, I'm curious where Rockies fans are right now. The team has come nearly a third of the way into the 2008 season, ten games behind, ten games under, and it's rather obvious that some serious changes have to be made either with the on field performance of the team or the personnel that take that field. Perhaps the personnel off the field as well. What single change would make the biggest impact? How expensive is it going to be? Or can we just wait, do we need to make any changes at all?
Personally, my current list of priorities -and the amount of wins over our current state that I think they'll bring- to fix the 2008 season for the Rockies looks like this:
- Get healthy, +4 wins
- Trade Yorvit Torrealba +2 wins
- Trade Jeff Francis while he still isn't Barry Zito - win neutral, but something that I fear needs done sooner rather than later.
- Fix Brad Hawpe +2 wins
- Trade or DFA Jeff Baker and give Helton more rest so we could see what a Garrett plus Stewart infield would look like. +1 win
- Pray that Dexter Fowler has an epiphanal moment tonight that involves making him the baseball player he could be. +4 wins if it happens, but wishing for it really isn't an effective use of time.
- Replace the manager. +1 win
- Get a better fifth starter. + 0.5 win
- Replace some miscellaneous bullpen part. +0.5 win
As you could see, the fire Hurdle thing is fairly far down there. As is worrying about JDLR or Arias. A trade of Holliday or Atkins, while I think it would help the team long term, simply won't have a positive impact on 2008, so it's not on this particular list of priorities. I might be underestimating the wins we'll get with rotation fixes, but expecting Hirsh, Wells and/or Rusch to drastically outperform Fancis and de la Rosa seems like an iffy call at best at this point. Morales should be capable of it, but he's such a mess right now it seems very unlikely. All told, the +11 that I see won't cut enough into the D-backs lead, but it could at least bring us back to respectable. Anyway, what thoughts do other people have?
0 recs |
28
comments
Read Related
Comments
The Rockies need to
fire their strength and conditioning coach. This team has had way too many injuries: Tulowitzki, Barmes, Hawpe, Holliday, Atkins, Hirsh, Wells, Speier, Vizcaino and Bowie. Don’t forget that last year there were way too many injuries last year too: Rodrigo Lopez, Cook, Hirsh (again), Fuentes, Buchholz and Taveras.
Aut Vincam Aut Periam
by PioneerSkies on May 26, 2008 10:46 AM MDT 0 recs
That's exactly what I was thinking yesterday.
Every day is a Holliday!
by free7694 on
May 26, 2008 11:40 AM MDT
up
0 recs
Hawpe's issues seem a lot easier to fix to me than Francis'
Jeff’s not likely getting any velocity back, and he hasn’t been getting much movement on his pitches this year. Hawpe’s timing is just a bit off and he typically does much better in the second half, anyway.
by Rox Girl on
May 26, 2008 12:23 PM MDT
up
0 recs
realistically
How far away is Fowler? He’s in AA and doesn’t seem to be doing poorly (though, I haven’t checked the numbers of the Tulsa World lately), so he has to be relatively close.
by rosenthal on May 26, 2008 12:15 PM MDT 0 recs
Not close enough...
It seems doubtful at this point that he’ll see the bigs this season, it’s looking like a late 2009 call-up is the most likely scenario.
by Rox Girl on
May 26, 2008 12:42 PM MDT
up
0 recs
ummm that's Not good
cause with Willie T’s inability to get on by the bunt…..we need Dexter to have his end of the year call up/cup of coffee, and be ready for a starting (starring) job in 09.
Colorado Rockies: Continuing a long tradition of playing meaningless games in June!
by Redhawk on
May 26, 2008 12:45 PM MDT
up
0 recs
Yes, we do...
I agree completely, but there’s nothing in the numbers yet that say he’s ready for this. Hence praying for this to happen is one of my priorities.
by Rox Girl on
May 26, 2008 12:57 PM MDT
up
0 recs
I was thinking about this time last year...
When I attended the Rockies Memorial day game against the Cardinals. Coors field was filled with red Cardinals caps and everyone had jumped off of the Rockies bandwagon anticipating a losing season. But the Rockies had just won 2 series from the Giants and Dbacks and were poised to win their next 6 series before the disasterous June swoon that saw them lose 9 of 10.
Flash forward to the current group of Rockies who have won 2 of the past 3 series, Ubaldo and Reynolds are looking like the real deal, and Cook has become a legitimate number 1. Francis still needs some work to do, but he’s our 4 starter right now and DLR is working through it at #5. Sure injuries have devastated the Rockies, but the bench was hitting better than the starters anyways and now there’s an excuse to bring Seth Smith and Ian Stewart to the big club.
Personally I think the Rockies best chance to win over the next several months is have an outfield of LF-Holliday, CF-Smith/Pods/Spilly, RF-Spilly, Stewart. Hawpe needs to be traded, and rotate Stewart between RF, 3B and 1B. Work Atkins in at 1B as well. Rox Girl you made the comment of praying that Dexter Fowler makes a huge jump, which could be wishful thinking. But if you look at the last few Rockies seasons there have been several players that have made that jump (Francis, Tulo, Franklin, Uball?).
It could happen!
There's only one Rocktober!!
by Charlie77 on May 26, 2008 12:15 PM MDT 0 recs
Francis
Rox Girl, how is that you were so high on Francis last year and now you are ready to throw him under the bus? I mean obviously something is wrong with him, as his velocity is down, his pitches are flat, and he is getting killed. I think that his trade value is pretty low right now relative to his benefit to the team if we can get him straightened out.
Also its scary that even with this long list, we only get back to .500…....
by moomacher on May 26, 2008 12:22 PM MDT 0 recs
It's just exactly what you say.
Those problems lost velocity, lost movement don’t get fixed in pitchers as often as you seem to be thinking. I was high on Francis last season because there wasn’t much reason to expect this steep a decline. Now that it has happened, you’ve got to ask yourself if he’s really going to be coming back? Second, I don’t think his value is as low as you think it is right now, many teams (probably the Rockies, too) will be in that same frame of thinking that you have, that his benefit to a team is high if they can just straighten him out…
...but if they/we can’t? That value won’t go any higher. I think we’ve got to give him June to figure it out, but of all the developments this season, this one has been the hardest and most worrisome for me to take.
by Rox Girl on
May 26, 2008 12:38 PM MDT
up
0 recs
Many teams will think
with the right pitching coach, and a favorable ball park, this guy could be a solid #2/3 type pitcher, not unlike Jamie Moyer…And I think they would be correct. But right now, I see far more Mark Redman in Francis then I do Jamie Moyer.
Soft throwing lefties, are a real crap shoot as far as careers go.
Colorado Rockies: Continuing a long tradition of playing meaningless games in June!
by Redhawk on
May 26, 2008 12:42 PM MDT
up
0 recs
Not enough variation with Francis' pitches to see Moyer/Glavine
in his crystal ball. His curve looks exactly the same, every time. His change-up, exactly the same. His fastball is way too frequently an 85 mph grapefruit this year. If he’s going to improve to be one of the best of the crafty lefties, we need to see a lot more variety than we are right now.
by Rox Girl on
May 26, 2008 1:08 PM MDT
up
0 recs
I'm totally with you on Francis
Watching Francis pitch this week and then Greg Reynolds, I think one is MADE for Coors field and is the new prototype, and the other is a soft throwing lefty with little command of his pitches.
I wonder what Francis would bring in a trade?
Colorado Rockies: Continuing a long tradition of playing meaningless games in June!
by Redhawk on
May 26, 2008 1:19 PM MDT
up
0 recs
Unfortunately
Hawpe has a big contract, making him difficult to trade.
by rosenthal on May 26, 2008 12:23 PM MDT 0 recs
Actually
given his service time and the contract options at the back end, it might be an ok contract to the right team. The Mariners have a large payroll, and a deep, black hole in RF…they’d take Hawpe in a minute. Everyone will look at last years numbers and think “Wow, a middle of the lineup power hitter!” and those are very valuable. I just wish Hawpe really was that, then the Rockies wouldn’t be looking to trade him (I’m not sure they are…but they should be as I don’t think Hawpe’s value will go higher than it is right now)
Colorado Rockies: Continuing a long tradition of playing meaningless games in June!
by Redhawk on
May 26, 2008 12:40 PM MDT
up
0 recs
Yes and no...
I agree Hawpe should be traded; I doubt he’ll ever again approach last year’s totals. Even now, it’s hard to imagine how he managed 116 RBI’s. People have been making excuses for him all year as he continues to struggle. Sure, he’s a streak hitter; but that’s no guarantee he’ll have another monster second half like ‘07.
But I don’t think his trade value is at its peak now, given his wretched start (.231-3-17). Still, a deal now might be best, but it seems improbable.
by alex colfax on
May 26, 2008 12:54 PM MDT
up
0 recs
I think he's a much more likely guy to have more value later than right now...
Give him a couple of months of summer launchpads, and then see about shipping him in the winter. His career splits outside of Coors Field are more impressive than Atkins’ too, and I think that you might undervalue this in regards to his trade status.
I think the team has to hold on to either him or Garrett, so any trade of Hawpe, and I’m not saying it’s a bad idea given our left handed bats coming up, would almost have to be accompanied with an Atkins extension assuming Holliday’s counting down the days to his career somewhere East of the Hudson.
by Rox Girl on
May 26, 2008 12:55 PM MDT
up
0 recs
I don't see
Hawpe connected in anyway to Atkins. I assume Holliday is gone and is just a matter of when and how, not if. But Hawpe is easily replaceable. In fact Seth Smith in 2 games had 1 hr and 3 RBI’s, where in the month of May up to his injury, Hawpe, had 1 hr and 9 rbi’s. In other words, I think Hawpe was already replaced and in some respects upgraded already.
Last year was a career year in my estimation, never to be duplicated. This was to me his “prove it” year. And by Value “now” I didn’t mean today May 24th, but rather, the closer he is to those career numbers in 07 the more value he will have.
I’m far more worried now about CF. I thought Dexter was a lot closer than you think he is …...thanks a lot!
Colorado Rockies: Continuing a long tradition of playing meaningless games in June!
by Redhawk on
May 26, 2008 1:15 PM MDT
up
0 recs
If Holliday gets a Boras megadeal
from, say, the Yankees, who have a ton of payroll coming off next winter, then he had better put up some better numbers than his road splits would indicate. Otherwise he will wish he never left the kind and gentle media bubble of Denver.
by moomacher on
May 26, 2008 1:39 PM MDT
up
0 recs
Re: Francis
If you don’t think that Francis’s command issues are fixable, you don’t know as much as you think you do about pitching. The guy won 17 games last year with virtually the same arsenal – the major difference has been his inability to get pitches on the inner half. Moving the ball in and out is how guys of his ilk are successful, but he hasn’t done that and the results have been ugly.
Once he starts pounding that inside corner again, he’ll be fine and you all can feel ridiculous for comparing him to Mark Redman.
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
by Franchise26 on May 26, 2008 1:35 PM MDT 0 recs
I'd be so happy feeling ridiculous on this...
So happy, you don’t understand how much I want to be wrong on this, but it’s more than just not pitching inside this season. There’s an across the board drop in velocity on his pitches. His curve’s not the same pitch it was last year, and he’s using it less because he’s lost command with the thing. Instead, he’s throwing more change-ups, and right handers don’t seem to have their timing thrown off at all by it. I think throwing inside with the FB more will help, but not as much as you think, and not enough to bring him to the #2 pitcher he was in 2007 and which we need in 2008.
by Rox Girl on
May 26, 2008 1:58 PM MDT
up
0 recs
Juan Pierre
just got his 17th rbi of the season…more than Helton and tied with Hawpe, in less at-bats than either. Kind of sums up the Rockies’ offense this season, doesn’t it?
by alex colfax on May 26, 2008 2:03 PM MDT 1 recs
Best Slam of the Year Award.. so far
Awesome.
Hope Helton and Hawpe turn a little red on that one.
The offensive performances this year is just that “OFFENSIVE”. Three hits yesterday in front of 40,000 people was pathetic. The win was nice but the underlining problem still lingers.
by roxhead on
May 26, 2008 2:59 PM MDT
up
0 recs
First I have to say
Thanks, RG, for the Memorial Day remembrance. My dad was a Vet, and this day was always one of the “Big” holidays for him. Since he passed, it’s become a somewhat somber day for me, and therefore a good reminder to honor it’s real purpose. (And the weather today here in Denver is decidedly not helping my mood.)
On to the Rox. While I will remain ever hopeful that something lights this team on fire enough to make a charge into the playoffs, I more realistically hope that we can at least finish above .500. Failing to do so could lead to an extremely turbulent off-season. Getting everyone healthy is the best place to start. As for trades, well, if something can get done that will truly help the team long term, then I say go for it. Be that Yorvit, Hawper, or some farmhands. I kind of look for Matty to be gone at the deadline this year, but if we can get some solid pitching help in return, I’m suffer the blow with dignity.
I can’t comment on Francis as I have basically no knowledge of what it takes to “fix” a pitcher. I, like everyone else here, had certainly hoped for better from him this year.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~ Earl Wilson
by rockhead on May 26, 2008 2:55 PM MDT 0 recs
trades
Here is how I see the best moves the Rox could make starting now:
1.) trade Taveras (please) while he still has solid value. Sully, Pods and Spillbourghs can handle CF. A couple minor league prospects, or a cold beer and a bag of peanuts would do.
2.) Trade Fuentes – a lot of contenders will need a lefty late inning reliever that is more than a LOOGY. High minor league prospects in return for Fuentes, if not one that is major league ready.
3.) Trade Hawpe – this one is tough. I like Brad, but he needed to have a monster year this year to show me that last year was not a career year and that we can expect more than .270/25/80 out of him per year over the life of his contract. He is at the age where he either makes the necessary adjustments to become consistent, or his long swing starts to slow down. Should get solid return here, assuming Brad starts to heat up with the weather, as expected.
4.)Sit back and wait for the Yankees to come calling for Holliday in the offseason. ( I know – that will hurt) Steinbrenner is looking at an off-season where he will likely have missed the playoffs, will have a new, billion dollar stadium and a boatload of cash freed up from expiring contracts – a Scott Boras dream scenario. Assuming the conversion of Joba Chamberlain to a starter works out well, the Yanks might feel able to let go of Hughes, who has good stuff, but struggles with the NY spotlight. Combine Hughes with Melky Cabrera and a couple of minor leaguers ,and I think the Rox would have to listen hard. Use the savings to lock up Atkins through 2013 or 2014. (Atkins swing is so sweet and repeatable, I think he will post solid numbers for a long time).
I am assuming, trades 1-3 listed above would likely lean toward getting pitching depth in return for the players we are trading. That gives the Rox depth for trades in future years if they are close enough to make a run.
The above scenarios would allow Smith and Stewart to play the corner outfield spots, with Melky Cabrera taking over in 2009 until Fowler beats him out. That gives a lineup that includes Tulo, Helton, Atkins, Stewart, Ianetta and Smith. Tulo, Ianetta Stewart and Smith should mature about the same time that the pitching staff projects to really come into its own (Jimenez, Morales, Reynolds etc), while still getting solid numbers from Helton and Atkins. I think that is a line up that can win games.
I would love to freeze Holiday, Atkins, Hawpe et al at their levels of last September and watch them play for the Rockies for the next 10 years, but it just is not reality. Even with all of the money in the world, the Yankees cannot hang onto the glory of years past just by throwing FA money at their problems. The Rockies have a chance to be solid and continue to reload (much like the A’s have over the past decade) but they cannot become too enamored with any one player, no matter how popular.
As for Francis – something is wrong with his delivery. His arm angle and therefore his pitch angle are not the same, consistently, as last year. I think it is correctable and when he has his mechanics fixed, his velocity will come back.
by Fos on May 26, 2008 3:18 PM MDT 1 recs
Helton
Although I wear a Helton shirt to the games, I think an assessment of the Rockies’ problems must include a serious evaluation of Helton. Although his glove remains the best in the game, a #4 hitter with 15 RBI and minimal power is almost embarrassing. I realize Todd gets hot during July and August, but there seems to be a complete lack of power from him; he has too many singles, and not enough gap doubles.
First base should be a position where a team has either a power hitter or a high average, line drive hitter. Right now, the team suffers from having neither.
by Young511 on May 26, 2008 3:38 PM MDT 0 recs
#7
would also take care of #s 2,4 & 5. Most managers would give Yorvit Hurdle, Hawpe & Helton more time on the bench. So the way I figure the math, #7 is worth at least 6 wins.
by 4thturn on May 26, 2008 4:05 PM MDT 0 recs










