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Thursday Morning Rockpile: Pretty bad...

So this Steven Strasburg kid is impressive, but the Rockies need to get on the phone with Tony Gwynn now to stop these 127 pitch outings. I would have thought Mr. Padre would have been more sensitive to this given that San Diego's our competition here and they don't want his arm to fall off either. Unless they know that we're going to pass them, which is a pretty obvious conclusion to anybody that's seen the Rox lately. Stupid Tony Gwynn, your kid's nice to us, why can't you be? Anyway, let's look a little bit closer at the machinations of the three teams currently in the Strasburg derby:

Seattle: Keeping John McLaren as manager is a tough move to top, but we've got Clint Hurdle, which isn't too shabby either. Jose Vidro as a DH? Excellent gambit, I've got nothing but praise there, but I think they could squeeze maybe one more loss this season by just batting the pitcher in that spot instead and claim it's a protest against the sin of a DH in the first place. Definitely give them bonus points for having a General Manager who actually thought the Mariners were the bees knees this year and traded away their best young players for Erik Bedard, but he might be too naive for the Mariners good in this case. Odds: 3-1

San Diego: I don't know if anybody else noticed the coup the Padres pulled off this week, but trading for Cha Seung Baek was an exquisite play. Not only do you make the Mariners better by subtraction, you've now got a guy with a 73 ERA+ to possibly replace a guy with an 82 ERA+.  It's a double whammy! The bad news for Padres fans in their dreams of getting their native son is that Kevin Towers and Paul DePodesta sometimes have too strong a desire to win. You've got to clamp that thing down in a competition like this. Getting angry over losses only makes you go out and cut the Glendon Rusch's and Joe Thatchers of your squad. Just clinch your teeth, say the team needs to pitch better and hit with RISP and then do nothing. Yeah, I just don't think these guys will have it in them to lose enough once Peavy's back. You just can't wash years of winning off that easily. Odds: 5-1

Colorado:

"We're not doing anything, as far as what it takes to win games." Todd Helton

Right now, the Rockies are in excellent position. Our best players are injured, the rotation is full of question marks and the bullpen is leaking like a sieve. Snapping up Rusch in Towers' moment of weakness couldn't have gone better for O'Dowd, as now we have one more underwhelming pitcher to throw out there but at the same time a lot of personnel transactions so it looks like he's not actually trying to lose. All three of these teams might be better able to hide their true intent if they weren't quite so competitive last season, but the Rockies have the most young talent currently, so they are in the best position to get away with the whole "be patient and watch the kids develop" stance. Odds: 5-2

*****************

Enough about the 2009 draft, though, the 2008 draft is just days away. Let's get our minds off the team's on field performances of late and use today to talk about what direction you want to see the Rockies take. Anthony Hewitt would be great, but there's a possibility he doesn't last until the 25th pick. Odorizzi? I have no idea who the guy is except for that he's tall and left handed. Jason Castro? He's a solid catching prospect and a nice safe pick at 25. I could live with it, but secretly wish we would do something more daring.

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This is fantastic

I love it. We have gone from the World Series to tanking it in hopes of securing the number one pick in the draft.

by moomacher on May 29, 2008 9:14 AM MDT   0 recs

Oh also...

We gotta worry about KC. A 10 game losing streak is bad news for us.

by roxintober on May 29, 2008 11:05 AM MDT   0 recs

Speaking of the Royals...

Ramon Ramirez entered the ninth inning with an 8-3 lead over Minnesota. The Twins tied it on a 3-run homer off a subsequent reliever (Joel Peralta), but four of the five runs were charged to Ramirez. Morneau’s homer in the tenth won it.

by alex colfax on May 29, 2008 11:26 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

The Giants

This implies that the Rockies are a good bet to finish behind the Giants.

Now that’s a truly scary thought.

There is a bright side to the '08 season.
Barry Bonds & Roger Clemens are out of baseball.

by maris61 on May 29, 2008 11:13 AM MDT   0 recs

The post mostly tongue in cheek,

I really don’t expect the Rockies to continue to play as badly as they have been for the rest of the year, but there’s no denying their play to date has them deserving of their current status. I really do think the Giants at least will find a way to come in below us in the standings when all is said and done.

by Rox Girl on May 29, 2008 11:52 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Sports philosophy

An old Lou Holtz quote…”Things are never as bad as they seem (current Rockies), nor as good as they seem ( 21 of 22 in ‘07), but reality lies somewhere in between.”

by DeepPurple on May 29, 2008 2:58 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Don't you mean...

Thingth are never ath bad ath they theem, nor ath good ath they theem, but reality lieth thomewhere in between?

by rosenthal on May 29, 2008 4:32 PM MDT to parent up   1 recs

Who is untouchable?

So like when the axe starts chopping, who on the team and in the farm is considered “untouchable”?

Does Francis still fit into that category? Certainly Tulo, Dexter Fowler, Hector Gomez and Jhoulys Chacin do.

BTW .. Odorizzi is right handed.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=odorizzi

by roxhead on May 29, 2008 12:13 PM MDT   0 recs

See? I know even less about him than I thought I did....

But if he actually does make it to Louisville, I’ll probably have a better idea about him in the 2011 draft.

by Rox Girl on May 29, 2008 12:20 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I erred in calling Jason Castro "Juan", too,

But I actually know a lot more about him. It’s just been one of those mornings where I very much could have used a personal editor/proofreader.

by Rox Girl on May 29, 2008 12:25 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I think the injuries

bad hitting, and shockingly bad pitching have kind of obscured the true talent level of the team. I think a full scall rebuilding is probably not called for. More like a retooling. Make a decision about Holliday/atkins. Figure out which of our young pitchers can be solid bottom of the rotation guys for next year, and if we come up short actually spend some money to get a decent insurance policy (not a Towers/Kipper/Redman pu pu platter). Maybe trade Fuentes if the offers are overwhelming, otherwise let him walk and take draft picks as compensation.

by moomacher on May 29, 2008 12:31 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I should add

“trade Hawpe” to that mix. With Spilly and Smith (and maybe Stewart?) we are more than covered for outfielders.

by moomacher on May 29, 2008 12:32 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I think this trades away too much offense...

although, I might just be misreading your intent with Holliday/Atkins. If we let all three go, a Spilly/Smith/Stewart/Helton corner set-up would be more lacking in HR power than the one we have now, although probably better in OBP. I think the major downside is the Baker/Colonel/Koshansky/Barker bench options would be pretty terrible, particularly in the event of an injury, although Colonel would probably be a decent PH.

I think you’ve got to keep one of the three of the Holliday/Atkins/Hawpe trio to leave some insurance on the bench. The other two should draw in at least one solid young starter to help answer our rotation woes.

by Rox Girl on May 29, 2008 12:51 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

That's what I meant

we have to decide who to offer a contract to, then trade the other. I’m leaning towards keeping Atkins right now.

by moomacher on May 29, 2008 12:54 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Stating the obvious

I hope they don’t make the same mistake the Nuggets did—sit tight with a team who’s ceiling isn’t all that high.

They made the series last year, so I’m good with whatever they do for a couple years, but it might not hurt to get a haul of propects with some guys who won’t be around, and reload for a stronger run next year. Could they get a Volquez or two for Holliday or whomever is expendable?

by RMH on May 29, 2008 1:07 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually

I’d argue the Nuggets have a ceiling as high as any team in the league.

by rosenthal on May 29, 2008 4:33 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I argued the same thing until the Lakers manhandled them. Now I’m getting on board with the talking heads. I hope you’re right though.

by RMH on May 29, 2008 6:35 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

The Lakers

were the worst possible matchup for them. If they play the Hornets in the first round, I’m convinced they have a chance.

A healthy Nene (yeah, right) will give them an additional 3-4 wins, which would put them right there in the division hunt.

by rosenthal on May 29, 2008 6:43 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Hawpe

I would think that once he gets back from the DL and his bat heats up for a week or two, then he’ll be the most likely one to go. Left-handed power hitters should have decent market values in July and his loss isn’t as hard to make up for because of Spilly and Seth Smith.

I don’t see Atkins or Holliday being moved during the season but you never know.

by roxhead on May 29, 2008 1:03 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

The issue's a bit more complicated...

And in a way it appears that most Rockies fans won’t like since Hawpe seems to be the least favorite of the three among fans.

1. Atkins and the team haven’t had the best relationship.
2. Holliday has Boras as his agent.
3. Hawpe is the only one who has cost certainty for the next four years.

I really don’t think Brad’s the most likely candidate to go.

by Rox Girl on May 29, 2008 1:23 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

No player

On a team in this market is worth anywhere near $100 million.

by rosenthal on May 29, 2008 4:44 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

NOT EVEN.....

Barry Zito at 126m / 7 yrs. plus 11m option

by 91 wins in 08 on May 29, 2008 5:41 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Fuentes

What’s the price for Fuentes? There’s very little chance, I think, of us keeping him going into the offseason, right?

by rosenthal on May 29, 2008 12:32 PM MDT   0 recs

I think given our bullpen, we should pretty much resign ourselves to two draft picks.

And yeah, you’re right that there’s little chance of us keeping him. He wants to close, and somebody will pay dearly to give him that opportunity. The Brewers spring immediately to mind as a probable contender for his services.

I guess I’m not putting a trade completely out of the realm of possibility. Fuentes is obviously an interesting case that the Rockies might be able to score a major steal with. When you figure a team would have to offer at least two top 50 draft pick caliber talents just to start talking to O’Dowd, it gives us some pretty solid leveraging right off the bat. Some opponent would have to be desperate enough for help in the pen to give up more than that for a three month rental, though. I wouldn’t do it unless I was dang sure that a lefty reliever was the piece I needed to get over the top.

by Rox Girl on May 29, 2008 1:01 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

It would take a really nice offer for O’Dowd to trade him since those picks are there waiting to use next June. Besides, they need somebody half way decent down there in the pen… unless the plan is “The Strasburg derby”.

by roxhead on May 29, 2008 1:17 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Assumption

This assumes that Fuentes is a type A free agent. Likely, but not a lock. If he gets bombed the rest of the season and loses the closer role again, he’d probably drop out of type A.

by kosmo99 on May 29, 2008 2:06 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Brian Cashman in today's New York Times...

“I would like to have a lefthanded reliever, but I have not been able to find one at this stage. I’m not optimistic.”

Without Chamberlain, Yanks’ bullpen has had trouble holding the lead for Rivera to close. Farnsworth and Hawkins have been less than stellar. Would they come up with enough for Fuentes to interest O’Dowd? Probably not, but perhaps a possibility.

by alex colfax on May 29, 2008 2:59 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Even better

Hawkins is supposedly a DFA candidate. Although Viz has been on the shelf so we can’t really claim victory in the late inning setup man swap. The difference, of course, is that the Yankees can afford to make (lots of) mistakes like that.

by moomacher on May 29, 2008 3:05 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I dunno

He’d be damn near certainly a type A guy. I would be shocked beyond belief if he wasn’t.

by rosenthal on May 29, 2008 4:43 PM MDT to parent up   0 recs

With the system Elias uses, anything is possible :) Not the most sophisticated system in the world. He was in the top 5%

I do think that there’s a 90%+ chance that Fuentes will be a type A. But with innings being such a small sample size for relievers, a few bad outings could easily result in an ugly ERA, even if Fuentes pitches well in 95% of his outings.

by kosmo99 on May 30, 2008 6:37 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't see that happening...

First, since Elias takes two seasons into account the magnitude of that decline would have to be steeper than you’re looking at. Trevor Hoffman is probably still a type A reliever and he’s certainly showing a step back this season.

Second, if Fuentes were to falter badly in a few outings, he’d lose the closer job and get put in less leveraged situations. That means more LOOGY type stuff where he’d have the advantage from the start, which in turn would almost certainle stop the decline in his numbers. To get from where he is now to the B range would take not only a complete disaster of the last two thirds of the season, but a complete ignorance of that disaster by Hurdle. Hurdle’s not the brightest bulb in the marquee, but relief pitcher struggles get so magnified that even little lapses are apparent and Hurdle hasn’t stuck with ugly relief for that long in the past.

I’d say Fuentes’ chances of being a type A are very close to a lock, and the most likely way it wouldn’t happen would be with a season ending injury in the next little bit.

by Rox Girl on May 30, 2008 8:02 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

certainle? where did that come from?

certainly… Really, I know how to spell. Or at least I used to. Hey, maybe I should join this group.

by Rox Girl on May 30, 2008 8:06 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed, unlikely

Agreed, it’s unlikely. But the birds aren’t in hand quite yet, so there is a slight element of risk.

by kosmo99 on May 30, 2008 9:00 AM MDT to parent up   0 recs

I must be trained to block stuff out by now.

That was the most embarrassing series I think I’ve seen in a very long time. It was almost literally painful to watch.

Today: When’s the game on? And how long until I can watch it?

www.notthisday.com ....coming September 26th and 27th at the Pinnacle Event Center, Denver.

by Squeaky on May 29, 2008 4:23 PM MDT   0 recs

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