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Thursday Morning Rockpile:

I'll write the Pebble Report and the promised (and late) positives at each level report later, but I wanted to get the conversation going with this first.

First of all, a win is a win is a win, if I might mangle Gertrude Stein a bit, but one run squeakers like last night's aren't a very good indication that the team has turned a corner just yet. Unless a team's as lucky as the D-backs circa 2007, and we all know the Rockies in 2008 aren't anywhere close to that fortunate, seasons aren't won or lost by the close contests. Instead, a team's mettle will be measured in how many times it clobbers the opponent, compared to how many times the clobbering is inflicted upon it. Last season the Rockies split their one run contests, 19-19, while going 29-18 in games decided by five runs or more. This year, they're more or less even again in one run games, 7-6 after last night, but are just 5-9 in the blowouts. If the team is any good, it will become evident when they turn that second figure to a plus.

In order to do that, the Rox will need more innings like last night's eighth -to make a blowout you typically need at least two big innings in a game- and more pitching performances like those Aaron Cook's been giving us. This is all self evident, but stick with me and hopefully I'll get somewhere with this.

So let's go back to the set-up of last night's eighth. The top of the lineup -Willy T, Q, and Holliday- were set to face rookie Kyle McClellan. Taveras hasn't been hitting well this year, Quintanilla's been ripping since his call-up, and Holliday just rips, so the outcome of the first three was sort of predictable. Taveras struck out against the rookie, Quintanilla shot a groundball through the defense up the middle, and Holliday lined a triple deep the other way against a slightly shifted outfield. The only problem with this picture is that we had a guy who's getting out more than two thirds of the time -but he saved a run or two defensively last night- leading off. That first batter, first out scenario always drastically reduces a team's scoring chances.

Anyway, let's go on: next up, Helton. At this point to minimize the damage, La Russa used a common strategy against the Rockies, switching in your best LHP for the Helton/Atkins/Hawpe trio. With one out already, all Randy Flores needed to do was retire the two lefties to end the inning, he could pitch around Atkins. Helton popped out weakly, Atkins walked, and then Hurdle went to this best bat off the bench, Ryan Spilborghs, with two outs to try and get Holliday home. Now LaRussa had an issue, he could stick with Flores, who's allowing a .417 OBP to right handers this year, and has given up a .310/.387/.475 line against them in his career, or he could go to Jason Isringhausen, who had been warming up for the ninth. This was the first time Isringhausen had entered in the eighth inning this season, and this is where I've got to give Hurdle some credit for making TLR squirm. Batting Spilly was absolutely the right decision, and we can probably be thankful that Spilborghs in his career had been a perfect one for one with an RBI single against Flores for making it happen. If it had been Baker or Torrealba with the lone hit off Randy, Hurdle might have been tempted to use one of them instead.

At any rate, Spilly singles in Holliday, and Iannetta triples in both Spilborghs and Atkins to give us that lead. It would make sense that the five players responsible for that rally -Quintanilla, Holliday, Atkins, Spilborghs and Iannetta are five of our best performers this year. All we were lacking was a cameo by Scott Podsednik. So there's the secret to having big innings: GIVE YOUR BEST HITTERS THE MOST CHANCES.

Huh, I thought it might be harder than that.

On to pitching. Also important in manufacturing blowouts is giving up fewer than four runs a game, and so far we've only had one starter capable of this. The big news yesterday was that Greg Reynolds got pulled from his start in Colorado Springs in order to be ready to go Sunday in his MLB debut. Let's make a list of starters this season:

  1. Jeff Francis
  2. Kip Wells
  3. Aaron Cook
  4. Ubaldo Jimenez
  5. Mark Redman
  6. Franklin Morales
  7. Jorge De La Rosa
  8. as of Sunday, Greg Reynolds

Jason Hirsh will make it nine when he returns. If we trade or troll the waiver wires for someone like Josh Fogg, we'll reach double digits. Believe it or not with all the turnover that occurred at the end of the season, the Rockies didn't use their eighth starter in 2007 until Jimenez pitched on July 19. In that 2008 group, we've got three, soon to be four pitchers in the young, inconsistent phase of their careers, two in the old, ineffective and washed up phase, and what should be our two standbys in Cook and Francis. Francis is a veteran now, a leader, and he should be more consistent than this. Without a real step forward on what he's been doing this season, the Rockies are in trouble. You can blame the rest all you want, but the fact is we need and expect more from Jeff to be competitive. The others are actually meant to be cheap and interchangeable to the point we could stick with the hot hand, should one emerge. It's come to the point that I'm hoping that Reynolds will be that calm and stable, innings eating performer to buffet the ups and downs of the rest of the rotation and it shouldn't be that way.

Anyway, at least I know that Reynolds has the talent to be that guy, but it's a heck of a lot to ask for a rookie. Jeff, step up so the pressure's off him, okay?

 

0 recs  |  Comment 27 comments

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We can only hope

That last night was the start of a 15-6 run to get us to .500 like we had last year.

Every day is a Holliday!

by free7694 on May 8, 2008 11:04 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Question from a Cards fan

It’s reported in the Rocky Mountain News that Cards’ Anthony Reyes is one of the guys the Rockies might take a look at.

I would hate to see Anthony traded but it apparent his strikeout pitching style does not mesh with Dave Duncan’s pitch-to-contact style. He might flourish elsewhere. They mention SS Chris Nelson as one of the potential chips. What’s the scoop on Chris? He obviously is blocked by Tulo long term and the only real SS prospect in the Cards system is in A ball. Could be a good deal for both sides?

Oh, and good game last night.

by paposse on May 8, 2008 11:04 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Scratch that

Looks like Nelson wasn’t mentioned. Someone else suggested Nelson at VivaElBirdos, not the news article.

Still it seems like a good fit.

by paposse on May 8, 2008 11:18 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think the Rockies would give up Nelson for Reyes

Especially considering that they balked at including him in a potential Dan Haren trade this winter. It would take a pitcher with a little more upside, or better track record than Reyes to get Nelson, who the team sees as the starting second baseman in a year or two.

by Rox Girl on May 8, 2008 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Cards do need a SS

Cesar Izturis is an automatic out most of the time.

The Rockies have 3 major-league caliber SS’s who can hit (Tulo-Quintanilla-Barmes) far better than Izturis. They also have 3 major-league caliber CF’s who can hit (Taveras … in his own way, Podsednik, Spillborgs). San Diego needs a CF. Tampa Bay needs an outfielder. And 3 third basemen (Atkins, Baker, Stewart … who hit 2 HR’s in AAA last night). But they’re about 2 short of major-league caliber starting pitchers at the moment. You’d think something would happen on the trade front soon, unless the Rockies are writing off 2008 and content to wait until 2009, when Tulo and Hirsh presumably will be 100% and Jiminez-Morales-Reynolds more seasoned. Trouble is, “wait til next year” is hard to sell to fans who followed a fairly young team to the World Series last year.

I expect a trade soon.

How about a SS, CF or 3B for Dave Duncan? He apparently can fix any broken-down or washed up pitcher there is, except for maybe Anthony Reyes and Kip Wells.

There is a bright side to the '08 season.
Barry Bonds & Roger Clemens are out of baseball.

by maris61 on May 8, 2008 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duncan

See that’s the thing with Reyes. He didn’t need fixing. He was outstanding in the minors all the way through until Dave tried to change him into a sinkerballer after making the bigs.

Probably right though, a top SS prospect would need more than Reyes in return.

by paposse on May 8, 2008 12:47 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nitpick

I am not sure why you seem to think that the Rays need a 3rd baseman.

Even as he learns on the fly he should be better than average there and he will only continue improving.

by MADness on May 8, 2008 4:34 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kiss Redman's Fat Buttock Region Goodbye

He has a 45 day clause in his contract that allows the Rocks to pay only $250,000 in lieu of $1,000,000 if they release him by the first 45 days. The 45th day is this Tuesday.

See you Mark!

by PinchHitLancePainter on May 8, 2008 11:35 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Did not know about that...

As you’ll probably infer in the next few minutes from my game thread for this afternoon. That certainly makes the decision easier. Adios, Redman.

by Rox Girl on May 8, 2008 11:47 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

ok guys,
how do you know Greg is going to get
his debut on Sunday?

I have looked everywhere for this info, but I only see it here.
He is still on the SkySox roster. You all know TONS more
about this stuff than I do- so if anyone can give me any
info, it woudl be greatly appreciated.

I only heard from one of my nephews who said he didnt think there
was ANY way Greg would be involved in any trades.

by cdavis2488 on May 8, 2008 11:47 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I just got an email from Greg’s brother. He said Greg knows nothing
about this.
??
Here is what his brother told me

“I just talked to him, he knows nothing so these people are just guessing.”

by cdavis2488 on May 8, 2008 12:07 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Apparently, he's going to be the last to know.

I imagine they’ve got to go through the proper procedures of releasing or sending down whoever and give him the official call, but he wasn’t pulled from yesterday’s start without some reason, and unless his brother says he got his arm hurt last night, the writing’s pretty plain on the wall what’s going on here. Technically, his brother’s correct that we’re just guessing, here, but Ringolsby’s source knows what the team’s doing. He’s usually right about this stuff and leaves the guesswork to the other paper. At any rate, there aren’t a whole lot of other options to choose from in this case.

by Rox Girl on May 8, 2008 12:23 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

His mother is so excited

Well, I just talked to Greg’s Mom, and yeah, he is going to be the last to know I guess.
She said she heard from him last night, but he didnt know anything.

She is so excited! What a great Mothers Day gift for her if this actually happens!

Thank you all so much for giving me the inside track on info.
anything else, please let me know!!!

by cdavis2488 on May 8, 2008 12:52 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

another phone call from my brother.
He said they have not told Greg ANYTHING

not even to pack a bag.
The manager of Sky Socks has said nothing at all
to Greg about this.
weird.
is this the way its done usually?

by cdavis2488 on May 8, 2008 1:31 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sometimes

In this case, we’re probably ruining the team’s idea by talking about it so openly, but in order to keep a rookie from thinking too much about their debut and building nervousness they’ll spring the news on them at the last minute.

Another possibility, and a little less favorable for Greg, is that the team’s keeping its options open just in case a last minute trade materializes for somebody like Fogg who can go in at a moment’s notice. By not telling him he’s going to get the call-up, they don’t get blamed for the potential letdown if another less likely option comes up. In that case, boards like this one will get burned for jumping the gun. Still, all the signs point to a Sunday start being the Rockies intention with Greg right now.

by Rox Girl on May 8, 2008 2:36 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another Denver newspaper

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_9187589

The Rockies did something similar with Morales last year, if I recall correctly, trying to psych him out or keep him from psyching himself out or whatever oddball logic they used.

by MADness on May 8, 2008 4:40 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reynolds

I’m wondering if maybe it’s also partly trying to shield him from the craziness of dealing with family and friends wanting tickets, calling him, etc. I can imagine it might be a lot of pressure, and maybe the less time it’s made official before the actual start the better.

by holly96 on May 8, 2008 6:15 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now the question is

who are we going to fill in for De La Rosa….unless he puts on a great display today i doubt he will be up much longer

by TuLoRocks2008 on May 8, 2008 11:54 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

From what I read in 2008 BP

De La Rosa definately has a lot of upside, but he needs to be refined. I think the Springs is the perfect place for that.

The poster formerly known as Blake20th.

by NewMexicanSteven on May 8, 2008 11:59 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't have to be great,

Good enough will suffice. We have three options going forward:

1. Keep de la Rosa in until Hirsh is ready
2. Keep de la Rosa in until Morales is ready
3. Trade for another starter

My guess is that the answer will wind up being #1 unless he’s an absolute disaster and we’re forced into #3.

by Rox Girl on May 8, 2008 12:25 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

?

What do you anticipate the ceiling for Reynolds is? He certainly hasn’t had jaw-dropping numbers this year (though the PCL, to me at least, isn’t a great indicator on future big league talent because of all the AAAA talent swirling around).
16 Ks in 43 IP is pretty awful, though. He seems to have good control, but pitching to contact in Coors will get him absolutely torched. Obviously he pitched well in limited time last year, but what do you anticipate him doing the remainder of the season?

by rosenthal on May 8, 2008 6:48 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

12-12, 4.40 ERA

He’ll be involved in more decisions, both wins and losses because he’ll use fewer pitches and get deeper into games. Watch him against left-handed bats, he’s got a 2.60 ERA against right handed batters, but a 7.31 ERA against lefties -which he faced a lot of when we played the Dodgers affiliate early in the year.

Like Aaron Cook, he does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, he doesn’t waste pitches and his K rate’s similar over the past few starts. I think he’ll frustrate us with traffic but get out of jams better than U-ball or Morales have, as he doesn’t seem to get rattled as much.

by Rox Girl on May 8, 2008 10:12 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Solidifying presence

His style and his game point towards him providing something that we need very much – a low walk, consistent innings eater.

Scary to have to expect that out of a rookie in his first call-up but unlike Morales and Jimenez, he actually has the track record and the control to do it.

by MADness on May 9, 2008 2:11 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Completely Unrelated

Just wanted to let my friends on the Row know that I just found out that I am finally going to be able to move out of east Texas.
I just got word that I’ve been approved for a really nice apartment in Arlington, TX. My apartment will only be about 11 mins from the Ballpark in Arlington, so I may get to see a few games. It will be nice to get out of the baseball-less hell that is East Texas.

The poster formerly known as Blake20th.

by NewMexicanSteven on May 8, 2008 11:59 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

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