Thursday Morning Rockpile: Willy T is a plus with the D

by Rox Girl on Jun 12, 2008 10:36 AM MDT in Rockpile

Aaron Cook 3.9
Matt Holliday 2.4
Todd Helton 2.3
Clint Barmes 2.2
Taylor Buchholz 2.1
Brian Fuentes 2.0
Ryan Spilborghs 1.7
Chris Iannetta 1.4
Willy Taveras 1.4
Garrett Atkins 1.3
Jeff Francis 1.2
Matt Herges 1.0
Ryan Speier .8
Kip Wells .8
Jason Grilli .6

Baseball Prospectus uses a widely scorned method for determining defensive value for this, and a widely scorned level of replacement players, but this gives a decent overall picture of the overall individual contributions to the team from various players, you can compare it to Win Shares, which tries to do a similar thing. Taveras probably isn't really ahead of Atkins thanks to his defensive and baserunning merits, but it's a lot closer than Rockies fans probably realize.

Meanwhile, Brad Hawpe's absence from the list because of his terrible D in right, and because of the early absence of his bat is well deserved. MGL's UZR stat from Tangotiger's blog suggested that Hawpe would cost the Rockies 47 runs defensively over the course of 150 games at the rate he was going. Yikes. Anyway, the single worst WARP1 on the team sort of surprised me as well, but perhaps shouldn't have. Mark Redman's -0.5 edged out Jorge de la Rosa.

I guess the question then, is are we replacing the right outfielder with Spilly? Hawpe's certainly looked a lot more like his former self since returning, so I'll back the plan as it stands, but I still think that the first move that should have been made a long time ago was more simply to drop Taveras into the seventh or eighth lineup slot where his defense could still save us some runs, but his bat wouldn't cost us as many.

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Taveras

is a .280 hitter with extremely plus speed and very little power. He’s underperformed thus far, but he has played enough games in his career to consider him a better hitter than this. I suspect that by the end of the season he’ll be a lot closer to .280 than he is now, and with the rate he’s stealing bases right now, he’s a nice guy to have in the lineup.

by rosenthal on Jun 12, 2008 11:06 AM MDT reply actions

Willie T's Batting Average

Willie first off is a right handed hitter. There is an extra step righties have to take across the plate. When right handed hitters slow down, that extra step is amplified, especially if they are speedsters. Much of Tavares hits were infield hits, that he legged out, and bunts he ran out for hits. Willie looks like he has lost half a step, and isn’t running those infielders and bunts out. To think he will get that step back is not realistic. I don’t know of any injury, so it as to be age (though he is very young to start to decline).

So to think he will ever get back to his career average numbers isn’t realistic, though you’d think he would raise his average over his current .220-something average, I’d expect the best Willie could hit would be around .250-.260 area. With out getting walks, his OBP is very low.

Personally the extra bases he takes due to steals and his defensive range is a plus I can live with, though Willie is a player I’d unload this year or off season, before he declines more, and loses all value to another team

Colorado Rockies: Continuing a long tradition of playing meaningless games in June!

by Redhawk on Jun 12, 2008 12:24 PM MDT up reply actions

Is there any update on the draft signings?

I only ask because last night I saw Charlie Blackmon’s name on the roster for Tri-City. That and I’m too busy to go digging around for it myself. Thanks.

by Prospector on Jun 12, 2008 12:11 PM MDT reply actions

Well, too busy and too lazy. How's that?

by Prospector on Jun 12, 2008 12:12 PM MDT up reply actions

Blackmon, Rose, Scurry and Tim Matthews were added to the Dust-Devils roster

It means that they’ve all signed. Ethan Hollingsworth’s name has been made bold at BA, so I’m assuming he has signed as well. We’ve got a couple of players like Dodson and Roling that are still in the CWS but will sign quickly when it’s done, and a few like Nate Lape, who are going to be playing in summer leagues and the Rockies will make a determination then.

I think it’s pretty sharp what the Rockies are doing with these wood bat leagues this year, in a sense using them like a de facto complex league team to help the kids mature but without the financial commitment until they know they’re going to be worth signing. They might have to pay more at the end of the summer for a couple of these players than they would have right now, but those will be the players more likely worth the extra money anyway. I don’t know if it’s entirely intentional, but it’s not a bad way for a small market club to maximize it’s finite resources.

by Rox Girl on Jun 12, 2008 12:25 PM MDT up reply actions