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Around SBN: NFL Roundtable: Which Draft Pick Is Most Likely To Bust?

Monday Morning Rockpile:

The problem we have with looking so intensely at our own little part of the forest is that we sometimes don't understand that the trees we're looking at aren't that much different from trees other people are looking at. So I'm going to bring up Rany on the Royals as a cautionary tale to not get too enamored with a single team's interleague results as a measure of quality.

The Royals are now 33-27 (.550) against the NL over the last four years. In that same timeframe, they’re 182-314 (.367) against AL opponents. Sixty games is a pretty substantial sample size, and in those 60 games the Royals have outscored their opponents by 46 runs, so their record is representative of how well they’ve played. How much would the perception of this franchise be altered if they simply had the good fortune to play in the inferior league?

The Rockies over that same time span have a 31-23 (.574) record against the "superior" league while going 230-272 (.458) against the NL. The Rockies laugh at the Royals measly positive 46 interleague run differential with their +55. The rest of his overall point (that the NL hasn't closed the talent gap this season) might be true, but looking at an individual team's performance to support that claim just doesn't work that well. At any rate, when the Rockies go to KC next week, I hope the outcome is more like our 2005 sweep of the Royals rather than last season's series.

So why do the Rockies look so good against the AL while the rest of their NL mates look like AAA fodder? I mean if the NL looks as bad as it has, imagine how much worse it would look without the Rockies pulling the numbers up these last last few years. It's certainly a mystery to me. I can see how having more AB's for Ryan Spilborghs helps, but it's harder for me to explain how Jorge De La Rosa suddenly turns into the pitcher he was Saturday, or otherwise how the rest of our pitchers cut their runs allowed in half when facing AL opponents.

Aaron Cook is making a strong push to be the franchise's first 20 game winner. Unfortunately, there's just a huge "what might have been" to read into the gap between him and our second best starter, who at this point is probably Ubaldo Jimenez. At any rate, today's a good day to stay positive with the win yesterday, our fourth straight series victory, Troy Tulowitzki and Clint Barmes closing in on returns to the lineup, and a chance to make the league's worst road record even uglier tonight.

While we're waiting for Tulo and Barmes, does Joe Koshansky get called up in the meantime? That would leave Omar Quintanilla as our only legit middle infielder this week, which would be a scarier proposition if it weren't for the decent job Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker have been doing while holding down second. Still, something to think about.

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More interleague inanity from a Baseball Prospectus writer:

This is from Joe Sheehan’s Prospectus Today article for subscribers:

Looking back, you can see just how unfair this arrangement was to the Padres. Each of the three teams played the Orioles, Red Sox, and Rays three games each. Here are the “not in common” interleague series (all three games) for the three teams:

Diamondbacks: Orioles (.426), Yankees (.580)
Rockies: Royals (.426), Yankees (.580), Blue Jays (.512)
Padres: Mariners (.543), Mariners (.543)

The Padres drew the short straw, even conceding that they didn’t have to play the Yankees. They had the toughest interleague schedule of the group, the worst interleague record, and they missed the postseason because of that gap. Now, no Padre will blame the scheduling for their falling short, because of the well-established credo that you take responsibility for your performance, play the schedule you’re dealt, etc. But there’s no way you can look at the schedules these three teams played and believe that it’s “fair” when all three are fighting for the same two playoff spots.

No way you can look at the schedules believing it’s fair, huh? Why don’t we just start by acknowledging something that BP is only too happy to point out in other places throughout their site: the 2007 Mariners weren’t a very good baseball team, they were a lucky baseball team.

If you took the Pythagorean record of the opponents mentioned, the Rockies trio comes out with a .531 winning percentage, easily outpacing the other two in difficulty, and that’s even before you consider the disproportionately strong performance of KC in interleague play. These guys are smart writers, they should know better.

by Rox Girl on Jun 16, 2008 12:54 PM MDT reply actions  

Oops, the quotes didn't quite work correctly,

All three of those first paragraphs, up to “two playoff spots” were quoted from the Sheehan piece.

by Rox Girl on Jun 16, 2008 12:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

To your last point...

I think Baker and Stewart have done a pretty good job platooning at 2nd base lately. They don’t have a lot of range in the hole, but seem to make the play they’re supposed to and their strong arms help turning the double play. Baker is hitting .333 over the past week, and Stewart only has 2 hits, but they’re 2 HR’s so that’s ok.

It’s interesting that the Rocks top three hitters over the past seven days are:
Torrealba .444 do you think he plays better with a reduced role?
Podsednik .400
Quintanilla .366

Congratulations to Ken Griffey Jr. on his 600th HR!

by Charlie77 on Jun 16, 2008 2:36 PM MDT reply actions  

Maybe, but I actually think it's just a small sample size...

If you look over the month of June so far, which adds just one more week basically, Yorvit’s BA drops to .292, Q’s drops to .233, and Pods’ to .192. If Torrealba continues to play well with less work, it will be good all around, as it isn’t like Iannetta’s been slacking since getting more playing time so far.

By the way, those are some ugly June OPS’s by our three possible center fielders:

Spilborghs .651
Taveras .550
Podsednik .348

That’s not going to help the team overtake the D-backs.

by Rox Girl on Jun 16, 2008 2:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

About tonight's game

How do we determine whether we get a series win? Do we consider it a 1-game series? Do we combine it with the games of the original series? Or do we just not count it at all in terms of our nice little stretch of series wins we’ve got going on?

by holly96 on Jun 16, 2008 4:05 PM MDT reply actions  

I'll be happy...

if we can just count it as a win! A 1/2 game closer to the D-backs. Also, a 1/2 game closer to my All-Star break prediction, which is…(drum roll please), 2nd place and only 3 games out of 1st.

by 4thturn on Jun 16, 2008 5:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

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