25th Pick - Last Reminder of Last Year's Success

by HiAspire on Jun 2, 2008 1:51 AM MDT

Like everyone I had mile high madness last Rocktober, but the hangover is hitting most everyone (especially the players) hard now. As June's amateur draft approaches and we are nowhere to be found in the top 10, it is actually a nice reminder of how different last season was.

There will be a handful of power-hitting 1B taken in the first round as the most well stocked area of the draft. If a good one slips to the Rockies, that player could legitimately be seen as the heir apparent there unlike other 1B prospects from the past who were more likely to be trade bait. I could see a 1B falling because it isn't traditionally where many teams focus when looking at first round athletes and arms with upside. Despite having Helton, the team has also frequently picked 1B bats and moved them to other positions (Atkins/Hawpe) and could find a better bat at that lower first round pick this year than might usually be expected.

Anybody can fall in the largely unpredictable MLB draft, but Hosmer, Smoak, and Alfonso are probably the best and probably wouldn't get to us. Garrett Atkins-ish Brett Wallace is usually listed after those guys so could possibly last despite being mentioned in several places ahead of us including the 8-spot sometimes. Wallace's teammate Ike Davis may well be there because of an injury and inconsistencies but was having a very strong offensive season also and good power potential.

I'm just a fan but these days we can all pretend to be scouts, or at least have more informed opinions about players we've never heard of before. There are tons of sites out there. Minorleaguebaseball.com has some great information and video on most 1st round possibilities, and BaseballAmerica of course is always all over the draft. I don't think most of the players linked to us by BA will be there for us (Odorizzi, Hewitt, and Castro who might). If picking a catcher, I like the Roockies looking for bigger bat potential there in our park and Brett Lawrie would be the fit there for that if he was still there.

With our young pitchers having some trouble this year, you could also understandably see the team feeling they need to reload there and increase their depth to create more options down the road if some questions don't get resolved. You never need a reason to pick a pitcher in the first round anyway. Usually you don't see great starting prospects slip unless it is because of signability which would put us out of it anyway. Gerrit Cole has that high potential and velocity, but likely isn't a match because of the baggage and signability concern. They'd be more likely to take a lower-ceiling innings eater type college arm there low in the first round I would think, but Ryan Perry seems like he could be a nice pick for us who could be a fast rising reliever or take it slower learning to be a starter with top of the rotation type potential who can get good sink on the ball.

An interesting choice who feels a little like other athletic Rockies CF picks (some potentially good like Fowler but most bad) could be Anthony Gose who will have a longer path to the majors but upside as either a speedy OF or hard throwing lefty.

Jemile Weeks may be a good positional fit for a leadoff 2B or CF who could probably move up the system quickly and fill a couple needs in one shot. If they don't pick Weeks, I'd like them to take a flyer on Brandon Crawford in the 2nd round who was thought to be a possible high first round SS talent coming into the season but fell off this year who could possibly line up next to Tulo in the middle infield down the road.

Picking so low it's hard to put your money/hopes on anybody because who knows who will be there, but at this point before knowing more about those players as the draft hype approaches, I'd be pretty happy with Wallace/Davis or a good bat who falls to us, Lawrie if he could stay behind the plate, Weeks for positional/lineup slot, or Ryan Perry on the mound and I think most of them have a good chance of being there.

If I had to say one of them now and not just rely upon someone great landing in our lap, I'd probably lean conservatively toward Ryan Perry today (who BA has going 29th in their early mock draft) and get him going down the path toward seeing what he could potentially do as a starter. I read an article where he admires Papelbon and ideally could develop into someone like that with some flexibility to use in either a starter or reliever role. He hasn't been pitching very long (not at all in high school and had a motorcycle accident in college slow him) but seems to have the tools to possibly dominate if he puts things together. And if that just wasn't going to come together as a starter (as it didn't for him this year as he moved to the pen and his confidence/stock rose) he profiles as a strong relief prospect where we always need arms and is usually critical to our team success generally.

If there isn't some arm that they really love who lasts til their spot, I think they have pretty good odds of landing a very useful bat even picking low this year. Then we can talk about 2009 and having a higher selection again...

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff.

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Nice analysis

I’m going to go into more depth on Weeks later this week, but basically I’ve been a big fan of him since seeing him at the Nebraska regional two years ago. He’s as good a ceiling as you’ll find at pick 25.

I like Perry, but you have to wonder if his days as a starter are already over. His 100 mph heaters over the weekend, as Goldstein points out, has made him some fast money as a college relief prospect, and a likely top 20 pick. Ideally, I think the closer you’d want to convert to starting would be Cashner, as he has a better background as a JUCO starter, but his draft prospects are looking better than Perry’s.

My fear, and I’ll discuss this in a later post, is that we go for a pitchability type like Lance Lynn early.

by David OhNo on Jun 2, 2008 6:12 PM MDT 0 recs

I have seen quite a bit on Jemile Weeks

Isn’t he the younger brother of Rickie Weeks?

Is it 2009 yet?

by The Lodo Magic Man on Jun 2, 2008 7:02 PM MDT 0 recs

yes he is

like his brother, he’s not a entering pro ball as a good second baseman, though the tools are there.

However, I’m not willing to say he doesn’t have the pop of his brother. Jemile’s got some filling out to do still, and his bat speed is tremendous. I think he’s a similar player too his brother really.

by David OhNo on Jun 2, 2008 7:38 PM MDT up 0 recs

Mock drafts:

I’ve never had to go 25 deep before, so this season has been a bit more challenging for me. From what I can tell, there are four teams that are picking ahead of the Rockies that will have the most influence on our pick:

7. Cincinnati – a lot of rumors are swirling that the Reds are going to reach with a raw, high upside high school athlete like Lawrie or Casey Kelly, which would make one less player of that type available at the Rockies pick.
16. Milwaukee – Nobody ever seems to know what direction the Brewers are going to take before the draft, and this year seems no exception. They’ve been linked to every player also linked to the Rockies and they love athletes more than we do; Odorizzi, Hewitt, Lawrie and Castro in particular. I’m thinking that they might be leaning toward Cashner, though.
19. Chicago – It’s an open secret that they really want Casey Kelly, but there’s a decent chance that he gets taken before this. The Cubs second choice would probably be Lawrie, and their safety seems to be Odorizzi right now.
24. The Phillies seem to like all the same position players we do, but are going a different direction with the pitchers. Problem is that everybody seems to be having them pick a position player in the first. If Odorizzi is already gone at this point, I would expect the Rockies and Phils to both be looking at the same players but Philadelphia will get the first stab and we’ll get the leftovers.

So I think at the end of the day, the Odorizzi rumbles are too hard to ignore and that seems to be the safest bet, but look for us to pick the best high school athlete available otherwise. I see Castro getting nabbed by one of the Mets two picks, Weeks with the other one. The other college players you mention don’t seem to be drawing the Rockies attention right now. One player to watch that hasn’t been mentioned much with our pick is Zach Collier, who could slide more than expected as you’ll see teams overvalue shortstops, catchers and relief pitchers on draft day.

by Rox Girl on Jun 4, 2008 12:57 PM MDT 0 recs

Changes

It’s interesting how much things changed for some players between mock drafts for BA. In the one I was using before for some of my posted expectations, Ryan Perry wasn’t mentioned at all for any team’s mock selection summary until pick 29. That was less than 3 weeks ago, and now he’s mentioned frequently for many teams ahead of us starting at #13 and projected to go 22. The best info always seems to come out the morning of the draft.

Sounds like the Rockies would also prefer to draft him if available, so I guess we were thinking similarly.

Between Odorizzi and Perry, I would have expected the high school hurler with smooth mechanics and a live arm to move up the charts more than the college reliever who struggled as a starter, but that doesn’t look like the case with Odorizzi reportedly more likely to be there for us than Perry if what we read today is true. Although I really like something about Perry’s potential and zeroed in on him as my hope for our pick there, I was expecting Odorizzi’s to be the name in today’s mock drafts to be gone before us instead of Perry—and still feel it may end up that way despite today’s knowledgeable projections.

Also until I see otherwise, I do still expect at least one of the many 1B with a good bat to fall in the draft as team’s historically have other preferences in the first round to create a great value pick for a team selecting low. Whether we are looking at those players or not, an opportunity might emerge there for something better than what we were looking at otherwise.

Two positional good fits for us seem to be Weeks and Hewitt. 3 weeks ago Weeks wasn’t in BA’s mock first round, and today seems like he’ll be gone before us with a couple teams looking at him, but depends upon who else is there when those teams pick. Anthony Hewitt was gone before we picked in the previous mock draft but today feels more likely to be there for us, and seems like the athletic type of player they like to select. It seems likely that he’ll be a CFer with some pop and good speed, so that’s another good match (or even if he moves from SS to 2B and stays in the infield. Great upside there and should provide above average power at either of those need areas for us.

Perry, Odorizzi, Weeks, or Hewitt… or maybe a surprise falling like a highly rated 1B bat or Hicks or Melville… all seem like they would be solid selections and satisfy this fan. Shooter Hunt is about the only guy listed around our pick area that I’d prefer not to see us select (although he has some good points too) and initially kind of worried about that with our history of college arms.

With the shortage of pitching this year and the desire for it generally, you could easily see both Perry and Odorizzi gone before we pick. In that case, I think Hewitt would be our man.

by HiAspire on Jun 5, 2008 10:53 AM MDT 0 recs

I mention this in the Rockpile, but I don't like Weeks

I don’t think he grades out higher than Nelson, offensively or defensively, even with Chris’ slump at Tulsa, and I think EY2 is actually a very similar player to him, but more advanced. Similarly, I don’t like Perry as much because he’s going to be a reliever and not quite as good as Weathers. Although looking closely, he fits a lot better at our slot than I gave him credit for a few minutes ago. I’d still be disappointed in that pick, though.

Odorizzi, Hewitt, or Collier, I’ll be happy with. Castro if he’s available. Perry or Weeks, not so much.

by Rox Girl on Jun 5, 2008 11:13 AM MDT up 0 recs

Differences of opinion

Yeah, there seems to be a lot of differences of opinion on those players. Not just here, but everywhere.

David OhNo here seems to really like Weeks and very knowledgeable, and certainly you not so much on Weeks with incredibly respected opinions. I’ve read some others who are high on his talent/blood-line and others who think he’ll be a utility type pinch-running role player. I kind of mentioned him as a positional fit for the organization initially as I’m probably not as high on our 2B options as others here (although I’m probably higher on Wimberly than most because I like those leadoff types), and think that is still a need area for us organizationally to find the ultimate solution.

If you were picking Perry as a reliever I would agree that wouldn’t be the best news. The teams highest on him, though, are the ones who see his potential as a starter as a pitcher who has a lot of room left to develop despite being a college arm because he didn’t pitch in high school and missed time in college due to an accident. A lot of teams really like his stuff, though, and upside as a starter if he can adjust better to that role in his pro career. Certainly that’s a question, but he also comes with insurance as a good reliever fit if he didn’t reach his starter potential.

There aren’t a lot of great arms in this draft, and with the shortage there will be even fewer good ones available toward the bottom of the round you would think. I expected most of the good arms to be long gone before us, but because of his issues Perry I thought would probably be there if we wanted a pitcher. His mock draft position jumping today to projectedly not be there for us, and reading that the Rockies prefer him most, kind of surprised me and I’m not sure if it’ll really go that way. I still think Odorizzi is much more likely to be gone before Perry, despite the mocks to the contrary today, and that if we want an arm with some upside that Perry might be the guy who lasts and the best arm available at the time we are up.

If we want a middle of the order type bat to bring another young slugger into the organization as our offense hits the skids, the best bet there is hoping for one of the 1B bats to slide as I think is very likely. We could use a couple prospects with elite power potential as we build future teams for Coors Field. We may not be looking at those 1B bats, but probably should in case one falls.

As the draft nears, I just think most of the pitchers will be gone (including Odorizzi) with the smaller crop—and unless all the Perry talk today is just smoke him too unexpectedly. At that point with most good arms gone, for me I’m moving toward Hewitt as the guy who makes the most sense in many ways and would give us the most value there. He also seems like he’d be available from today’s reports and a good match for us.

by HiAspire on Jun 5, 2008 11:50 AM MDT up 0 recs

I think that's what it boils down too,

...and I certainly respect those who go another way from me. It will be interesting to see who proves right on Weeks. I just think the bloodline might be skewing the perception on him a little too much. He’s not a very good defender and I don’t think the power he’s shown will translate well to wood. Meanwhile, if Perry sticks at starter, he’ll certainly be a more justifiable selection than I envision, but I’d only take that risk if I had more than one top fifty selection if it was my call.

I’m also opposite your opinion on who drops, although you make a good case. I’m seeing HS players sliding after a run on college 1B’s in the 5-14 range. If your scenario holds and a good 1B does drop to us, I’ll be very happy if the Rockies select him.

by Rox Girl on Jun 5, 2008 12:18 PM MDT up 0 recs