Wednesday Pebble Report:

by Rox Girl on Jun 4, 2008 7:50 AM MDT in Pebble Report

Colorado Springs: L 2-5

Jayson Nix hit his sixth homerun and Juan Morillo bounced back from a terrible appearance his last time with a perfect frame, striking out two. Chris Frey chipped in two hits and an outfield assist, but other than that there wasn't a whole lot of note in this game.

Tulsa: Off

My latest blog entry at the Rocky Mountain News checks in on Dexter Fowler's progression, with additional notes from around the system.

Modesto: W 9-5

The California League's funky scheduling is going to leave a lot of people with mistaken impressions about the strength (or lack thereof) of their prospects this year. Rockies fans might have to be included in that camp if they're not careful when it comes to the Nuts.

44% of Modesto's games thus far have been against Stockton or San Jose, the league leaders when it comes to run prevention. 43 of 59 games for the Nuts in 2008 have been against the North Division, and you'll note that the five teams from the North (including Modesto, #3 in Cal League pitching this year) just happen to be the five teams in the league to be giving up less than five runs per game. How much of this is attributable to good pitching versus how much is attributable to poor hitting? This series with High Desert shows me that while Modesto's offense is still relatively poor, it's probably not quite as bad as it looks on the stat pages unless strength of schedule is taken into account. Modesto's league lagging offense has busted out for eighteen runs against the Mavericks league lagging pitching staff, so I take heart knowing that the Rockies advanced A level hitting woes aren't nearly as bad as Seattle's advanced A level pitching woes.

Jason Van Kooten went four for four with a homerun and triple, Victor Ferrante three for three with two doubles, and Daniel Mayora three for five with a double.

Asheville: L 4-1

Connor Graham lasted just two innings on a wet pitching mound before having to give way for Robinson Fabian for what I was told was a right groin tweak. It seems to be more grounds related and not serious enough to keep Graham out of his next start. It was Fabian's debut with the team, but an unsuccessful one as the Tourists wound up losing to Hickory to snap their nine game winning streak. The lone Tourists run came from a Darin Holcomb solo shot, his ninth homer of the season. Brian Rike had a pair of hits but other than those two, there wasn't much offense for the T's. The final score could have been worse if it weren't for the strong arm of left fielder Kevin Clark, who twice gunned down runners at the plate trying to score on sac flies.

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Modesto prospects

Very relevant post on what seems to be a very screwy schedule in the Cal League. We also shouldn’t lose sight of the flip side of the same issue, namely, the pitching staff. If you throw in Bakersfield with San Jose and Stockton, you have the only three teams in the league with winning records. They are also three of the top four hitting teams in the league. So far, the Nuts have played 54% of their games against those three teams and, backing out Chaz Roe’s rehab starts, have the second best ERA (3.80) in the league.
Despite some injuries, there seems to be lots of strength up and down that staff.

by Roxbb on Jun 4, 2008 11:48 AM MDT 0 recs

Pitching in Modesto is very talented, but

bottom line, there isn’t much to like in the lineup, tough schedule or not. I don’t think hitting prospects should get a break for the tough schedule. So these guys struggle hitting pro quality pitching… That’s a pretty big problem.

I think the offense as a whole deserves a break, but individual prospects that are struggling, like McKenry, should be very concerning.

by David OhNo on Jun 4, 2008 10:32 PM MDT up 0 recs

I'm still less concerned about McKenry

His entire trouble is in his approach to LHP’s, and his .836 OPS against RHP’s is good for catchers in Modesto. Look at what Lucas May did for the Dodgers Inland Empire affiliate last season (.778 OPS in a similar park), for instance, and McKenry stacks up well considering his defense is better. He’s not going to be a star, nobody expected him to be one, but at this point I don’t see any reason to write him off. I’ll be concerned if the numbers go south over the summer, but history suggests they’ll head the opposite direction.

by Rox Girl on Jun 5, 2008 5:11 AM MDT up 0 recs

I should say, though, that while I'm less concerned about McKenry

He’s the only Modesto position player currently playing that I envision any sort of MLB future for, and it’s as a backup to Iannetta.

by Rox Girl on Jun 5, 2008 5:13 AM MDT up 0 recs

Agreeing with OhNo...

This is the least offensive team, top to bottom, I’ve seen in 12 years in Modesto. It’s hard for me to write such a blanket accusation, but this team has almost no power (21 homers total, which means they don’t go long on the road, either,) average speed, and often no obvious approach at the plate. Last year’s team actually hit for a lower average through the first two months, but had better power (particularly gap to gap) and were much better at creating runs.

On some nights, it’s like I’m watching Oakland prospects take two strikes before thinking about trying to put the ball in play. That is beginning to change, and could be the ticket out of this team slump. We’ll find out starting Friday when Stockton comes to town for a four-game set. The Ports have defeated the Nuts 10 straight.

Is there hope? Of course. Tonight, they rallied from 5-1 to win 6-5 in 11. This comes one night after putting up a five-run eighth to beat High Desert. Now, the Canadian conversion…they swept HD and now are 15-2 against the South (against 14-29 against the North.)

The saving grace of Modesto has been the bullpen. Every visiting manager has told me it’s the best in the league, and San Jose manager Steve Decker said he’d take Modesto’s full staff over any other in the league.

The Nuts have lost five games this season in which they’ve scored four or more runs. So a little offense will go a long way, which is perfect because the Nuts only have a little offense.

Perhaps the bottom line for Rockies fans is this: Offensively, no one on the current Modesto roster screams “PROSPECT!”

by Brian VanderBeek on Jun 5, 2008 2:21 AM MDT 0 recs